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Broke into the wrong GD..
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If Obama doesn't get re-elected and the country returns to some kind of sanity, you'll see that bubble burst in the next 2-3 years. In the last decade, we've witnessed the tech bubble skyrocket and then burst, then the real estate bubble skyrocket and then burst, you'll see it next with metals.
 

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If Obama doesn't get re-elected and the country returns to some kind of sanity, you'll see that bubble burst in the next 2-3 years. In the last decade, we've witnessed the tech bubble skyrocket and then burst, then the real estate bubble skyrocket and then burst, you'll see it next with metals.
I pray you're right, but I think all the money-printing is a big factor. :(
 

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Silent Defender
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If Obama doesn't get re-elected and the country returns to some kind of sanity, you'll see that bubble burst in the next 2-3 years. In the last decade, we've witnessed the tech bubble skyrocket and then burst, then the real estate bubble skyrocket and then burst, you'll see it next with metals.
The tech bubble was under Clinton, and the real estate bubble was under mainly under Bush but set in motion under Clinton. That's not to say any of these presidents are wholly responsible for what happened either. This whole house of cards was being constructed well before any of these three presidents was elected into office, so removing Obama in 2012 isn't going to change anything.
 

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Hmm . . .

This is interesting

https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=88630

And as most people know, ALL politicians are addicted to spending other people's money and continuously raising the debt limit . . .
Nice chart. Almost the same analysis can be found in this guys video
There is two parts to this video, because the second part is an update. I think anyone that believes in hyperinflation needs to understand the history of Weimar and Argentina, which is what this video does.
 

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See this is the real problem! The classic banter of it's the democrats fault..No it's the republicans fault thereby making no one accountable


Both parties are responsible for this, until citizens accept this and hold both accountable by voting out the two party system and specifically the old crusty hard line career politician party members we will get more of the same
 

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Gold soaring and DOW taking another hit today. That debt ceiling is gonna be great huh? Oh boy.
 

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That's because the classic economic principal applies and some people know it there's a new silent run to some kind of safety


That Principe is; when debt reaches or exceeds GDP economic policies become ineffective, break down and or become unpredictable

Our GDP was 14.5 trillion last year and the GDP has been growth for this year has been revised down but is somewhere around 14.7-14.9 trillion our current national debt is 14.5 trillion we should exceed debt to GDP in a mater of months.



http://www.usgovernmentspending.com... Product GDP History&state=US&color=c&local=s
 

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Nothing is in a vacuum. Gold is no different. If you watch the markets right now you will notice that ALL markets are in a free fall right now. Commodities are the typical safe haven when there is no other place to put your money.

Precious metals do not gain in true value and therefore are not a good investment. They are an insurance to lock in value. Watch the entirety of the world's markets and you will have an insight as to when gold will start slowing down. If 1/4 of the markets around the world start to trend up then money will move out of PM and into those markets and gold will hold it's price. When 1/3 of the markets are trending up then gold prices will drop hard. When 1/2 of the markets trend up then gold prices crash.

Not all commodities work on this principle. Consumables tend to hold value better than stocks, but loose value as demand based on manufacturing lessens. Oil is a good example. As economies start to roll back, less oil is used to transport and therefore the price drops.

Silver is both a consumable and a safe haven so although it acts like gold it is also independent of the price movement. If you invest in silver you need to keep this in mind. I personally believe that silver is a better investment for the long run. The economy is tanking, but the trend is for the world to move more and more into the electronic age. This will require more silver as a consumable and with the economy down it will also be in demand as a safe haven. In my opinion silver is a great 10 year investment.
 

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If Obama doesn't get re-elected and the country returns to some kind of sanity, you'll see that bubble burst in the next 2-3 years. In the last decade, we've witnessed the tech bubble skyrocket and then burst, then the real estate bubble skyrocket and then burst, you'll see it next with metals.
How can this country return to sanity when it's a two party system and both sides are corrupt? Just curious if you have much of any investment in PM. I'm also curious as to whether you were against gold when it was at $1000 an ounce.

There is no getting out from under a $17T debt and $100+T of mandates. That's why they hosed us again. They've got to buy time.

I wonder what kind of personal protection these guys will have when it comes crumbling down?
 

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Here's my feeling. Gold and Silver ARE at an all time high. But there are historical analogues where gold and silver WERE at all time highs. Then they went down.

Silver:




Gold




What you'll notice there is that there was a BUBBLE of precious metals. People apparently thought it would just keep going up, and kept buying it, making it go up more. It worked for a time, then the bottom fell out. Gold and silver are both now higher than the highest point in the last bubble. No one knows when the market for it will stop rising, but you just don't wanna be caught at the wrong place when the music stops.

Buying PM 3-4 years ago would have been great, hindsight being 20/20. But while I want to get into PM's, it feels too much like a bubble is being reached and may pop. Real-estate prices were at an all-time high too. So were tech stocks. While gold will always be worth something, and will never be subject to being wiped out by stocks, if I owned gold right now I would be selling it, and putting that money in something less volatile, like bonds. Though the PM's for SHTF barter and such is still a good idea, I'm talking from a personal finance perspective.

Edit: And I will say that, based on the historical data, it seems those caught holding silver when the bubble bursts stand to lose more of the face value than owners of gold, based on the above charts. Also note the gold chart stops in 2004, so it doesn't show the meteoric rise from then until now.
 

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Here's my feeling. Gold and Silver ARE at an all time high. But there are historical analogues where gold and silver WERE at all time highs. Then they went down.

Silver:




Gold




What you'll notice there is that there was a BUBBLE of precious metals. People apparently thought it would just keep going up, and kept buying it, making it go up more. It worked for a time, then the bottom fell out. Gold and silver are both now higher than the highest point in the last bubble. No one knows when the market for it will stop rising, but you just don't wanna be caught at the wrong place when the music stops.

Buying PM 3-4 years ago would have been great, hindsight being 20/20. But while I want to get into PM's, it feels too much like a bubble is being reached and may pop. Real-estate prices were at an all-time high too. So were tech stocks. While gold will always be worth something, and will never be subject to being wiped out by stocks, if I owned gold right now I would be selling it, and putting that money in something less volatile, like bonds. Though the PM's for SHTF barter and such is still a good idea, I'm talking from a personal finance perspective.

Edit: And I will say that, based on the historical data, it seems those caught holding silver when the bubble bursts stand to lose more of the face value than owners of gold, based on the above charts. Also note the gold chart stops in 2004, so it doesn't show the meteoric rise from then until now.
You are comparing apples and oranges. The only bubble that happened in 1980 was in silver and it was caused by the Hunt brothers.

There was a bump in both silver and gold at the same time and that was caused by Jimmy Carter and the 15% inflation he created. I lived through those inflationary times and can tell you it was scary. It was the people that finally figured out what a mistake the progressives were and elected Reagan that turned the country around. I seriously doubt this will happen again because the political climate is entirely different now than it was then.

The main problem is that gooberment spending is at runaway levels now. Spending was bad during JC, but now the politicos see no way to turn back. Back then we rolled the gooberment back and everything got back to normal eventually, but you just saw the "fix" they shoved up our *** yesterday. Deficits and debt as far as the eye can see.

Add to that QE (quantitative easing) and you see the fed willing to print forever. We had QE1 and QE2, but look for QE3 in Q3 or Q4. They have no more bullets in the gun.

It is absolutely not that PM's have a high price, it's that the dollar is being systematically devalued. There is no PM bubble. TPTB are deflating your dollars...I say your because I convert my dollars as quickly as I can into something that has real value.

I think it would be funny if hyperinflation came in 2012. The 2012 cult would claim victory.
 

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Here's my feeling. Gold and Silver ARE at an all time high. But there are historical analogues where gold and silver WERE at all time highs. Then they went down.

Silver:




Gold




What you'll notice there is that there was a BUBBLE of precious metals. People apparently thought it would just keep going up, and kept buying it, making it go up more. It worked for a time, then the bottom fell out. Gold and silver are both now higher than the highest point in the last bubble. No one knows when the market for it will stop rising, but you just don't wanna be caught at the wrong place when the music stops.

Buying PM 3-4 years ago would have been great, hindsight being 20/20. But while I want to get into PM's, it feels too much like a bubble is being reached and may pop. Real-estate prices were at an all-time high too. So were tech stocks. While gold will always be worth something, and will never be subject to being wiped out by stocks, if I owned gold right now I would be selling it, and putting that money in something less volatile, like bonds. Though the PM's for SHTF barter and such is still a good idea, I'm talking from a personal finance perspective.

Edit: And I will say that, based on the historical data, it seems those caught holding silver when the bubble bursts stand to lose more of the face value than owners of gold, based on the above charts. Also note the gold chart stops in 2004, so it doesn't show the meteoric rise from then until now.
I find it interesting that so many people are calling precious metals a bubble. A bubble occurs when the speculation itself fuels further speculation. The bubbles we've witnessed in the past have always been pervasive throughout society. With the 2000 tech stock bubble, every lay person was talking about buying stocks. With the real estate bubble, everyone was talking about real estate being so great. Who today is talking about gold? For that matter who can afford to buy gold, I know I can't, can you guys? Wow you guys must be rich and here I am happy that I can make the mortgage payment every month.

So I highly disagree that there is a speculative bubble when 99% don't even know that it's happening. My guess is that anyone calling it a bubble is a market investor/speculator himself, with his nose stuck in financial news all day long and he's trying to make sense of why the market does what it does. I've been there, I know the feelings and the mentality of how this happens and it's a completely different world and mindset. Just because you can't figure out any other explanation doesn't mean that it's a bubble, it could just be something you missed or undervalued in your evaluation of the situation.

A simply examination of silver in particularly interesting. The amount of silver mined out of the ground each YEAR is barely more than is traded each DAY. If $50 is the best that speculation can push silver with that kind of volume, then it seems rather subdued to me. No hysteria to drive prices up like we saw with tech stocks or with real estate, just a steady rise up.

But who knows. Maybe the rush to hard assets is all speculative. Maybe the US currency won't collapse and it'll just level out to the way things were 20 years ago. Apple pie and chevrolet. If thats what you believe though, then why are you on a survivalist board? Do you believe that the terrorists are going to EMP us, yet the US currency is going to be OK?
 

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LOL, PM's in a bubble. Seriously?

Tell ya what, I'll gladly trade my 400% profit in PM's if this country can do a 180, the politicians grow testicles, and the fundamentals become solid. Sorry, not gonna happen. No, it's not PM's in a bubble, it's those paper bills in your pocket. Wake up.

Take your charts and plot the money supply over them.... see anything?
 

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LOL, PM's in a bubble. Seriously?

Tell ya what, I'll gladly trade my 400% profit in PM's if this country can do a 180, the politicians grow testicles, and the fundamentals become solid. Sorry, not gonna happen. No, it's not PM's in a bubble, it's those paper bills in your pocket. Wake up.

Take your charts and plot the money supply over them.... see anything?
Inflation and the USD haven't devalued 400% in 8 years. Just saying. I agree that the dollar has fallen: some. I agree there has been a little inflation, but not nearly as much as many feared. But nowhere near enough to account for the much, much higher prices of PM's. I know saying things like this is unpopular, and frankly the naysayers about the housing market were persecuted widely too, and I claim nothing other than seeing a correlation and a possible bubble. Those who are familiar with the concept of selection bias know that anyone who has bought gold at its peak, or indeed anywhere upon the upward curve in the last 5-7 years is going to automatically be hostile to this idea. I am just calling it like I see it, a commodity that is probably at least double in value what the market will eventually bear.
 

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Inflation and the USD haven't devalued 400% in 8 years. Just saying. I agree that the dollar has fallen: some. I agree there has been a little inflation, but not nearly as much as many feared. But nowhere near enough to account for the much, much higher prices of PM's. I know saying things like this is unpopular, and frankly the naysayers about the housing market were persecuted widely too, and I claim nothing other than seeing a correlation and a possible bubble. Those who are familiar with the concept of selection bias know that anyone who has bought gold at its peak, or indeed anywhere upon the upward curve in the last 5-7 years is going to automatically be hostile to this idea. I am just calling it like I see it, a commodity that is probably at least double in value what the market will eventually bear.
WOW, I've seen this on other forums, but it's a surprise here.

I always say it: I hope you are right. If so, I come out smelling like a rose.

That part where you say "I agree there has been a little inflation, but not nearly as much as many feared." Shows me where your head is parked.
 
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