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Discussion Starter #1
The following article describes the expected soaring rise in food prices to hit countries all over the world and the possibility future food riots.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41062817/ns/business-consumer_news

There is quite a bit of information hinted at "between the lines" here. It's very interesting that a Mainstream source is reporting on the possibility of deadly food food riots in many countries that may become the norm. Within U.S. borders, the Department of Agriculture has given somewhat dire estimates of low grain inventories which is further indication that an unexpected incident could cut off supply lines and send prices soaring. Without reserves it seems that a natural disaster, terrorist incident or economic issue could create an inability for the U.S. to provide regular food supplies within its borders. What would happen then to prices when the laws of Supply and Demand kick in? Would we see our first food riots in First World Countries? Could Europe, Canada and U.S. see hungry masses like those in Africa? What will happen over the long term with the continued increases in demand from China?

Already we are seeing First World Countries sacrifice the populations of many developing nations in order to feed their own people. Is this an indication of an unsustainable "Food Bubble?"

Perhaps the most concerning issue is that most people will gloss over this article in attempt to get to the sports page. Without being alarmist, I see do see this as an early warning indicator.

Thoughts?
 

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Procrastinate Now
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This is the problem with "just in time" economics. Business and government operate on the just in time principal, which is great for the bottom line and effency, but when there is a problem, like temporary supply interruption, natural disaster, or even something small as a couple of 18 wheelers in an auto accident the system is overwhelmed and there is a shortage in supply.

People live on the just in time principal. Most people have only one or two days of food in the house. This is why preping is so critical.

Just in time principal is a great business model and make efficiency about 100%, but if there is ever an increase in demand, the supply quickly runs out.
 

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There's a number of problems

1, at the core is 20th century farming made food cheap most of this revolves around oil to fuel machines, pesticides, fertilizer and transportation that cheapness is coming to an end .

2, The level of productivity relating to 1 is going bye, bye! These production levels cannot be sustained globally, soil is being depleted of nutrients at some point it will collapse and water!

even IF all the farmers in the world switched to organic farming it wouldn't address the whole problem because to meet food crop demand in the past few decades .. aquifers are being depleted to raise crops this will not decrease in the next few decades.

http://www.eoearth.org/article/Aquifer_depletion

http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/Oc-Po/Ogallala-Aquifer.html


This may sound horrible but it needs to be said! There's simply too many people to sustain and maintain growth. If you look at demographics population it's being driven by poor nations not the wealthy ones. All the UN and aid groups,... particularly the catholic ones! That give medical and food aid to the poor in Americas, Africa & India are basically breeding more poverty, starvation and disease.
 

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traveler
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There's simply too many people to sustain and maintain growth. If you look at demographics population it's being driven by poor nations not the wealthy ones. All the UN and aid groups,... particularly the catholic ones! That give medical and food aid to the poor in Americas, Africa & India are basically breeding more poverty, starvation and disease.
I saw a show last night called "Swarms" or something like that, where these rats were breeding like crazy because bamboo fields were in their 49 year seeding cycle and food was abundant. Population rose until they consumed all the available food and then they went on a rampage, swarming fields and villages in starved desperation.

It seems in every single case where a species has been favored by abundant resources the population rises to the point where they self destruct. Our demise is cheap oil. Follow the population from the dawn of time to now and it becomes clear where we are heading.
 

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The article is funny, and "forgets" to mention that a wheat crop takes four to five months is all. From planting the seed, to running the combine and baling the straw. That's two crops a year. That, and the fact that the fedgoob pays out billions of dollars a year to farmers here to not plant crops or run livestock. Look up the word "PIK". It means Payment In Kind. I have family in Montana and Idaho that make more every year with the program than they could make farming/raising livestock. In 18 months, if the demand were there, farmers in this country could produce 40% more crops and livestock to market.

ISS
 

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In memory of Rokitdog
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That article is not surprising. Much of the food problems in third world countries can be blamed on the instability of the governments. Even in Haiti, with hundreds of millions of dollars that have flowed in, there are still millions of hungry and homeless people. Thankfully, in this economy and although unemployed, I have kept my food inventory in good shape but if things get really bad I may have to relocate to my dads house which is much more defendable than mine!
 

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Carrying capacity is not defined and limited by the good crop years or even the average crop years.

Carrying capacity is defined by that once in a generation bad crop year.
 

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old hand
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That, and the fact that the fedgoob pays out billions of dollars a year to farmers here to not plant crops or run livestock. Look up the word "PIK". It means Payment In Kind. I have family in Montana and Idaho that make more every year with the program than they could make farming/raising livestock.
I doubt you are talking about a PIK program, the last one ended in the mid-1980s.

More likely, your family has put their farmland in the Conservation Reserve Program.
I'll bet they kick themselves for leasing it out every time they look at the grain market prices.
They could very definately make waaaay more money growing grain.
 

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There's a number of problems

1, at the core is 20th century farming made food cheap most of this revolves around oil to fuel machines, pesticides, fertilizer and transportation that cheapness is coming to an end .

2, The level of productivity relating to 1 is going bye, bye! These production levels cannot be sustained globally, soil is being depleted of nutrients at some point it will collapse and water!

even IF all the farmers in the world switched to organic farming it wouldn't address the whole problem because to meet food crop demand in the past few decades .. aquifers are being depleted to raise crops this will not decrease in the next few decades.

http://www.eoearth.org/article/Aquifer_depletion

http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/Oc-Po/Ogallala-Aquifer.html


This may sound horrible but it needs to be said! There's simply too many people to sustain and maintain growth. If you look at demographics population it's being driven by poor nations not the wealthy ones. All the UN and aid groups,... particularly the catholic ones! That give medical and food aid to the poor in Americas, Africa & India are basically breeding more poverty, starvation and disease.
You are right! The current issue of National Geographic is about the world population and if I remember correctly the industrialized countries are the ones with lower birthrates while the lesser industrialized countries have the booming populations India, Africa and some others. China was not mentioned if I remember correctly.

Does it take the education of a rocket scientist to figure out that if you live somewhere where there is little to no food, water and disease is rampant that one should not reproduce?
 

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You are right! The current issue of National Geographic is about the world population and if I remember correctly the industrialized countries are the ones with lower birthrates while the lesser industrialized countries have the booming populations India, Africa and some others. China was not mentioned if I remember correctly.

Does it take the education of a rocket scientist to figure out that if you live somewhere where there is little to no food, water and disease is rampant that one should not reproduce?
I read an account of a homeless mother of 8, in the nation of N-i-g-e-r (***** must be a forbidden word yet it's the name of a country), who had very little access to food for herself or her children (malnourished maybe not quite starving) yet her Muslim cleric still insisted it was the woman's obligation to continue to attempt to birth more babies.
 

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Discussion Starter #12
In many Third World Countries the lack of education and the number of infant deaths encourage more pregnancies each year. Birth control is unknown in many areas as well. Routinely, this (along with bad government policies, greed, etc) results in famine, disease and .... food riots.

In contrast, China's One Child family policy is well known and they are still growing annually. Their requirement to keep growth in check has allowed them to plan for and feed the populace. My guess is that this is a beast that can't be kept in check.

The U.S., Canada and Western Europe have better supply capability but are also more dependent on the ability to purchase rather than harvest their own food. It would seem our own government policies could quickly plunge us into very hungry times.
 

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I agree corruption plays a large part in many countries but some of the countries cannot support their population due to Drought and land unsuitable for farming. what has happened is that the UN, USA other countries and private aid agencies have had decades of supporting high population numbers. even worse some of these like catholic groups try to keep people ignorant and mired in religious ideologies that perpetuate breeding


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/86443.stm


The article is funny, and "forgets" to mention that a wheat crop takes four to five months is all. From planting the seed, to running the combine and baling the straw. That's two crops a year. That, and the fact that the fedgoob pays out billions of dollars a year to farmers here to not plant crops or run livestock. Look up the word "PIK". It means Payment In Kind. I have family in Montana and Idaho that make more every year with the program than they could make farming/raising livestock. In 18 months, if the demand were there, farmers in this country could produce 40% more crops and livestock to market.

ISS


corn not wheat is our top agricultural product 4 times that of wheat and wheat is mostly dependent rainfall while corn is an irrigation intensive crop. regardless even with a 40+ increase in output of wheat we are simply delaying the inevitable
 

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Enrollment in PIK might be closed, but the checks are still coming in Daniels County, MT.
You don't make much dry land farming, with 0-6 inches of rain a year...

ISS
 

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Your move Sparky...
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It appears that every road that human kind is choosing now leads to a disaster or utter depletion of our species.

Here's a thought. How about researching every time in our history where fundamental shifts in technology happened? Each time, just before the release of some great innovation mankind has felt as if their way of life would be depleted.

Mankind is ripe for a new innovation. A new "hero" of sorts. Someone alive today is intelligent enough to enlighten us as to that innovation and if we are to survive they need to do it quick.

When the new innovation is released, the whole of human kind is poised to benefit from it this go round. Those in power will be very limited to stop it due to the nature of our current technology and the way we use it. The world is just too small.
 

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just in the last couple of days this topic has been grabbed by the media. on to " food panic" from "suspicious wildlife deaths" will they succeed in causing a rush on the food stores here in the USA? stay tuned.
 

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old hand
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Enrollment in PIK might be closed, but the checks are still coming in Daniels County, MT.
You don't make much dry land farming, with 0-6 inches of rain a year...

ISS
During the PIK program, there were no checks.

The payments were made using commodity certificates (hence the name of the program (PIK.))

There is still a subsidy program, it's payments are made with checks.
Enrollment is open to all eligible producers.
 

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Tested in the Wilderness
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The payments were made using commodity certificates (hence the name of the program (PIK.))

There is still a subsidy program, it's payments are made with checks.
Enrollment is open to all eligible producers.
Here is the link about farm subsidies and just type in the zip code of any farmer you know and you very well might see how much money they have received over the past 10 or 15 years, from the gov't. The link >> http://farm.ewg.org/


A couple of my uncles who are wheat farmers have most of their land in the subsidy program and have each received almost a million dollars since 1996. Some call it high priced welfare.
But that is debatable I am sure.
Last year they began to put more of their land into growing wheat, finally.

And about food shortages, overpopulation, food riots etc. is that those subjects have been talked about for years and slowly but surely something will happen. The population of this world is Not getting smaller and a tipping point has to come someday.... Just one more out of a thousand reasons to get prepared with food stores, food production ( gardens etc. ) even have a good strong shelter...
 

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Discussion Starter #19
That Farm Subsidy site is amazing. I had no idea that the US Government paid out that kind of money to my state each year. Finding that the top 10% of farmers received 88% of the subsidies is pretty revealing as well. High priced welfare indeed. Seems like the US essentially provided free land to to these farmers. How do I get in on that?

Thanks for the post, MountainMan.
 

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old hand
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That Farm Subsidy site is amazing ... How do I get in on that?
Bear in mind that the data behind the EWG site prior to 2006 includes commodity loan amounts.
... those loans were paid back.

Depending on how productive any given farm was ten years ago, the subsidy amount is about $10 per acre per year.

To 'get in on that' is as simple as buying/renting farmland, signing up for the program, and complying with the program rules.

It is a stupid program, it is high time they scrapped the whole thing.
75% of the Farm Bill budget funds nutrition assistance progams (food stamps.)
Less than 6% of the Farm Bill budget goes to farmers.
 
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