During Hurricane Katrina, most of New Orleans left the city, because they were forced to. Many of those people had never been outside of New Orleans, and when they left, they went to Houston or another large city where they could be taken care of with our tax dollars. Now, everyone is talking about people fleeing the cities to the countryside. While I understand this assumption, I cannot find enough recent (past 100 years) history to justify this in our country. Most people will need to rely on a community to survive, it's doubtful all the infrastructure will disappear (if it does, most of the cities will be gone, with everyon in them anyhow), so I think most people who live in the cities will stay there, because they will be even more poorly prepared to live in the country/outdoors. To live outside you need certain learned skill sets, most urbanites don't have these, and would starve without a 7/11 or fast food, they wouldn't make it to the country side, let alone live there successfully. Using New Orleans as an example, without infrastructure and significant government aid, most of those people who evacuated would have died. I just can't see the national parks and the country being overrum with city dwellers, it just doesn't make sense and does not really have any SIGNIFICANT historical evidence for such an occasion. Were they to come to the country anyhow, most of the good ole boys in my area would end up using them for fertilizer. City dwellers are unprepared for life outside the city and most would not survive once they stopped recieving aid. Most would probably kill each other before they left the city and even made it past the suburbs. So for survival I would think hunting rifle and those sorts of firearms would make more sense in the long run. A few weapons for self-defense are fine, that's what I have, but the majority of mine are for hunting (I live outside a major city, on land in "rural" community. After any initial shock to society it will eventually begin to rebuild itself. If you guys think I'm way off base with this, okay, I may be, but I just can't see a total failure of society, short of nuclear war or the plague, and even then communities, especially in rural areas will still exist, and it city folk won't flood the forest and farmlands. IMHO.
Fleeing the cities realistic? No way.
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Rather than stocking up on expendable food items, wouldn't it make more sense to spend that money on an acre or more of land and plant food that will feed your family, not only for a few months, but for years and years. Many farmers nears us can provide food for their large families for an entire year on 1/4 acre to 1 acre of land. I would think a reusable resource such as this would be a better investment, it would also provide barter items and income. I personally have a huge amount of acreage, where we have crops planted, not for use, but for deer etc..., but everything planted in human edible and could be farmed, there would also be room for animals. I live in a "rural" community as well, where people would take care of eachother. As for defense, everyone hunts, knows the woods well and has many hunting rifles, and "other" toys for self-defense. I guess you could call these small farming communities "survival communities" because without the cities or gov't, or the outside world, these farming communities wouldn't blink when it came to the basics of life, food, water, shelter, safety, etc...and living like this ounds much more feasible and more comfortable that roguhing it in the woods for months at a time or more. Granted I still have those supplies if need be, but I just can't see leaving a farm with food (fruits, meat, vegetables).
Rather than stocking up on expendable food items, wouldn't it make more sense to spend that money on an acre or more of land and plant food that will feed your family, not only for a few months, but for years and years. Many farmers nears us can provide food for their large families for an entire year on 1/4 acre to 1 acre of land. I would think a reusable resource such as this would be a better investment, it would also provide barter items and income. I personally have a huge amount of acreage, where we have crops planted, not for use, but for deer etc..., but everything planted in human edible and could be farmed, there would also be room for animals. I live in a "rural" community as well, where people would take care of eachother. As for defense, everyone hunts, knows the woods well and has many hunting rifles, and "other" toys for self-defense. I guess you could call these small farming communities "survival communities" because without the cities or gov't, or the outside world, these farming communities wouldn't blink when it came to the basics of life, food, water, shelter, safety, etc...and living like this ounds much more feasible and more comfortable that roguhing it in the woods for months at a time or more. Granted I still have those supplies if need be, but I just can't see leaving a farm with food (fruits, meat, vegetables).
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First, I doubt most people will flee the cities. The ones that have second homes or cabins out in the country will probably leave. The ones that realize the severity of the crime waves will probably leave, and a few "live off of the land" folks will leave, along with the city-dwelling die hard hunters.
Other than that, I think you are exactly right that most people would end up killing each other, robbing, and car jacking the millions of ill-prepared and unarmed to survive and would never leave the city. The thugs will do fine until they kill each other, and the others will just suffer horribly until they die or conditions improve.
From my experience, most people in the city are there for a reason and will not leave regardless of the circumstance, and most that live in the country are there for a reason and will never leave regardless of the circumstance. Most people just do not move around alot if they can avoid it.
Well... being a "city dweller" I can say I think you have no clue what you are talking about. I have a lot of friends here in the city that will have no problem when and if they decide to bug out to the country. I can and have before raised goats, chickens, rabbits, planted gardens, canned my own veggies from my gardens, hunt, camp, cook, and stitch up my own wounds. Just because I work in a high rise office building in downtown Memphis doesn't mean I'll be running around begging for food when SHTF. Sure, there will be a lot of city folk who are unprepared, but those same city folk are a lot tougher than you think.
In Memphis we have a very high crime rate (#2 or 3 in the nation) and we are used to watching our own backs and sleeping with one eye open. Not every city is as bad as Memphis, but just being in the city does not give us a carefree life. We have to protect ourselves daily from thugs, thieves, gangs, murderers, rapist, and sometimes the police. How many times this week have you had to deal with violent crime in your neighborhood?
In Memphis we have a very high crime rate (#2 or 3 in the nation) and we are used to watching our own backs and sleeping with one eye open. Not every city is as bad as Memphis, but just being in the city does not give us a carefree life. We have to protect ourselves daily from thugs, thieves, gangs, murderers, rapist, and sometimes the police. How many times this week have you had to deal with violent crime in your neighborhood?
I go to grad school in the city every day, I grew up in the city, so I have a pretty good idea of what I'm talking about.
People tend to surround themselves with people like themselves, why else are you on this forum? So your friends are probably better prepared than most city dwellers. Most city dwellers don't know how to raise animals or live in the woods. My friends who live in the city and have always lived there, do not leave often and would not survive without alot of help outside the city. They are just as suseptible to violent crimes as anyone else. Further, the violent crime in your city just proves my point that it would be chaos and the city dwellers would have less of a chance than other people. And surviving violent crime in the ity has nothing to do with survival outside of the city. I understand that you may be upset that I think most city dwellers will have trouble, MOST, not all will have trouble. The inner city students my fiancee teaches daily wouldn't know what to do without xbox or microwavable meals. She takes her students camping and these kids won't go into the woods because they're scared of the animals. Without Kraft mac and cheese most city dwellers who do not work in high rise buildings, who are not as well rounded and do not have as many available resources will not do well in such a scenario. Most city dwellers will fail, you may not, you're friends may not but most will. Surviving a mugging doesn't give you the skills to survive outside the city. I mean really, most people are so far removed from the land nowadays, they couldn't make it. So people hike and camp? Big deal, that doesn't mean they can live without their Prius and grocery store for more than a week. At least this way, most of the liberals would go Darwin on each other. If we were to compare, I get to pick some country bumpkin and you can pick some ghetto fabulous hipster, I guarantee that the ******* will survive much longer than your gangsta pal.
People tend to surround themselves with people like themselves, why else are you on this forum? So your friends are probably better prepared than most city dwellers. Most city dwellers don't know how to raise animals or live in the woods. My friends who live in the city and have always lived there, do not leave often and would not survive without alot of help outside the city. They are just as suseptible to violent crimes as anyone else. Further, the violent crime in your city just proves my point that it would be chaos and the city dwellers would have less of a chance than other people. And surviving violent crime in the ity has nothing to do with survival outside of the city. I understand that you may be upset that I think most city dwellers will have trouble, MOST, not all will have trouble. The inner city students my fiancee teaches daily wouldn't know what to do without xbox or microwavable meals. She takes her students camping and these kids won't go into the woods because they're scared of the animals. Without Kraft mac and cheese most city dwellers who do not work in high rise buildings, who are not as well rounded and do not have as many available resources will not do well in such a scenario. Most city dwellers will fail, you may not, you're friends may not but most will. Surviving a mugging doesn't give you the skills to survive outside the city. I mean really, most people are so far removed from the land nowadays, they couldn't make it. So people hike and camp? Big deal, that doesn't mean they can live without their Prius and grocery store for more than a week. At least this way, most of the liberals would go Darwin on each other. If we were to compare, I get to pick some country bumpkin and you can pick some ghetto fabulous hipster, I guarantee that the ******* will survive much longer than your gangsta pal.
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I believe each would do better in their own environment than the other, which I believe was your original point - most city people will stay put, and most country people will stay put within their own comfort zone.
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Here is a good look at what will probably happen
Surviving in Argentina
This is a blog of a guy that survived the 2001 collapse of his government and the following chaos.
Surviving in Argentina
This is a blog of a guy that survived the 2001 collapse of his government and the following chaos.
SMM123, I think your absolutely correct. That is why I do not see a mass migration from the cities to the suburban/rural areas. I guess what I was ultimatley trying to say, in a very roundabout way was that I don't think there will be a mass migration from the cities to the country side. I just don't think it's realistic, unless it is coordinated by the gov't. Sure many people will leave the cities, but not in the numbers that some people fear, and certainly the majority of the city won't leave.
Argentina
Cool, thanks Bizarro, that's a really interesting article. While there are certain economic, social and cultural differences, that certainly carriers alot of weight and provides some interesting insight into a SHTF scenario. It provides a realistic view into things that I failed to provide. Thanks.
Cool, thanks Bizarro, that's a really interesting article. While there are certain economic, social and cultural differences, that certainly carriers alot of weight and provides some interesting insight into a SHTF scenario. It provides a realistic view into things that I failed to provide. Thanks.
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:I moved out of Chicago and out to the middle of nowhere almost 2 months ago. Part of the reason was I hated living in the city and always loved the outdoors. Another reason was I could never have piece of mind living in a high risk location surrounded by millions of people.
-You have a next to nothing chance of surviving a nuclear attack.
-If a major pandemic breaks out chances are you will be quarantined inside the city.
-You will be surrounded by tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands or even millions of people who have no food.
-If you have a BOL outside the city, getting there post-SHTF is not a given.
-If the city has to be evacuated you will be stuck if a traffic jam.
-If martial law was ever declared you will not be getting to your BOL.
- Rioting can break out for something as trivial as a sports team winning a championship or a jury verdict.
-Terrorists are never going to be attacking a town with no stoplights.
-You have very little privacy. If you have food, a garden or heat while your neighbors do not, chance are they will find out.
-You have a next to nothing chance of surviving a nuclear attack.
-If a major pandemic breaks out chances are you will be quarantined inside the city.
-You will be surrounded by tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands or even millions of people who have no food.
-If you have a BOL outside the city, getting there post-SHTF is not a given.
-If the city has to be evacuated you will be stuck if a traffic jam.
-If martial law was ever declared you will not be getting to your BOL.
- Rioting can break out for something as trivial as a sports team winning a championship or a jury verdict.
-Terrorists are never going to be attacking a town with no stoplights.
-You have very little privacy. If you have food, a garden or heat while your neighbors do not, chance are they will find out.
In the city, when SHTF, for the first month or so you will have people staying around looking for gov handouts and killing each other off. But, when it gets bad in the city all the gang members will head for the smaller towns where they will have less competition (or at least they will think they will have less competition) so I think there will be a lot of people leaving the cities. A lot of people will leave the cities when the gangs start getting out of control. Marshall law only works when people are willing to do as they are told, gangs are not going to just sit at home because there is a curfew. A lot of people will leave the cities because they have no choice. Rioting will force them from their homes, consider the LA riots and how many homes and businesses were burned down. I don't doubt that people in the country can survive by themselves much better than your average welfare recipient, but what are those country folks gonna do when they are standing in the garden picking tomatoes and some city boy pulls up with an AK stuck out the window? The city boy ain't gonna ask if he could buy some veggies he's just gonna pull the trigger.
I am not wanting to get into a pissing contest about who has a better chance or who has more skills. I just believe that assuming the city people are at a disadvantage is a serious mistake.
Each group has it's strength's and weakness's and in order to truly be prepared for what is going to happen we must all know what to expect from the sheep who are not prepared but still have the basic instinct to survive in what will become an increasingly violent world.
If I could get out of the city I would but I am stuck here due to my wife's health. A lot of people who are currently in the city will see SHTF as an opportunity to get out and stay out, others will see it as a way to take advantage of the gov and still others will see it as a way to do whatever they want.
I am not wanting to get into a pissing contest about who has a better chance or who has more skills. I just believe that assuming the city people are at a disadvantage is a serious mistake.
Each group has it's strength's and weakness's and in order to truly be prepared for what is going to happen we must all know what to expect from the sheep who are not prepared but still have the basic instinct to survive in what will become an increasingly violent world.
If I could get out of the city I would but I am stuck here due to my wife's health. A lot of people who are currently in the city will see SHTF as an opportunity to get out and stay out, others will see it as a way to take advantage of the gov and still others will see it as a way to do whatever they want.
I doubt the gang members would be going anywhere. I think thats wishful thinking on the part of city dwellers that their problems are just gonna go away. My parents and grand parents all owned rental properties in some very bad neighborhoods in Chicago. I've dealt with many gang banger types all my life. Your average gang bangers world only extends a few miles from their home. Most have never even left their neighborhood let own their city. They are gonna take other peoples stuff and wait for the government to rescue them. A week long journey on foot to some small town is not even in the cards for them. They aren't going anywhere.
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I think when the SHTF it will be too late to get out. By the time most people wake up, they will be stranded on the outbound lane with tens of thousands of other vehicles that ran out of gas. Just look at Katrina.
If anyone is serious about leaving the cities to avoid the pandemonium that is sure to ensue a catastrophic event, now is the time to do it - not after the event. At least get a retreat location purchased and set up. You're not going to be able to do that post-event. Even then, unless you're one of the early movers, you still may not be able to get out of Dodge in time. However, I understand why it is a risk that some are willing to take.
If anyone is serious about leaving the cities to avoid the pandemonium that is sure to ensue a catastrophic event, now is the time to do it - not after the event. At least get a retreat location purchased and set up. You're not going to be able to do that post-event. Even then, unless you're one of the early movers, you still may not be able to get out of Dodge in time. However, I understand why it is a risk that some are willing to take.
I mentioned this on another thread, but I have this question for those planning on bugging out from the city. Have you had any false alarm bug-outs already? If the answer is no then I doubt you will make it own when the real thing happens. Your only chance to bug out from a major city is to bug out before its even apparent that the SHTF. If you haven't had any false alarms yet what makes you think you will get out when something bad really happens.
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People will go where they percieve there is safety/food/shelter. Look at the millions of refugees that leave cities when there is a disaster/war/famine.
You say "realistic, no way" Don't make me laugh. Turn on your TV and see whats happening in war zones all over the world. Look at Darfur, 2.2 million refugees.
You don't think New York city will empty as soon as a plauge comes to town?
Or a nuke? or a comet? or a Tsunami?
You have alot to learn about people.
You say "realistic, no way" Don't make me laugh. Turn on your TV and see whats happening in war zones all over the world. Look at Darfur, 2.2 million refugees.
You don't think New York city will empty as soon as a plauge comes to town?
Or a nuke? or a comet? or a Tsunami?
You have alot to learn about people.
Good post, saved me some typing :thumb:
Only a REALISTIC AND OBJECTIVE look at your area can help you come up with a realistic decision on the NEED to bug out or not.
If you think things are just going to be a hiccup that will be easily covered by your "72 hour kit" then by all means, stay 1 mile from ground zero and expect no problems.
I mean really, the folks at the "Supadome" did really well didn't they?
Lowdown3
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The city dwellers will flee to the suburbs, the suburbanites will flee to the rural farmlands, and the rural people are all gonna flee to the woods and mountains. We are just gonna change places for a while. Approximatley 8 months after the SHTF event FEMA will show up in the cities with one case of Mre"s and one bottle of water which will have been finianced with new 8.5 trillion bailout. The remaining LEO"s being egdy after 8 months of practically nuthing to do , and being pressed by remaining city officials to prosecute as many individuals as possible to increase city funding , will promptly arrest the guys from FEMA for hoarding and confiscate their vehicles and the Mre"s and one bottle of water.
The Vehicles are auctioned off to the highest bidder ( the federal Government ) bringing the astounding price of $500,000 each for the three 78 ford f150"s FEMA had acquired at gun point from a family of midgets. The case of Mre"s , being a new variety which contain a DONUT desert bar seem to have dissappeared before they reached the Police Property Room. The aresting officers are hailed as heroes of the city, and are awarded a one AMERO per month raise in salary as well as being awarded the confiscated bottle of water, which they promptly use as cleaning fluid for their sunglasses.
Just kidding folks , its a rainy day and Im bored.
The Vehicles are auctioned off to the highest bidder ( the federal Government ) bringing the astounding price of $500,000 each for the three 78 ford f150"s FEMA had acquired at gun point from a family of midgets. The case of Mre"s , being a new variety which contain a DONUT desert bar seem to have dissappeared before they reached the Police Property Room. The aresting officers are hailed as heroes of the city, and are awarded a one AMERO per month raise in salary as well as being awarded the confiscated bottle of water, which they promptly use as cleaning fluid for their sunglasses.
Just kidding folks , its a rainy day and Im bored.
25 years ago I lived through a flood in Northern Kalifornia.
We had a couple of friends (city boys) who were evacuated from their homes a block away from the river. They later made it to my home.
Even in a modern 3 bdrm. home they had a very hard time copeing without electricity.
They lacked the basic skills like inflating a air mattress, making a pot of coffee on a coleman stove.
Sure theirs city dwellers who have basic survival skills, but I would say the majority do not. These are going to be the one stuck along the hiway, out of gas with no food or water.
A perfect target for bad people.......
We had a couple of friends (city boys) who were evacuated from their homes a block away from the river. They later made it to my home.
Even in a modern 3 bdrm. home they had a very hard time copeing without electricity.
They lacked the basic skills like inflating a air mattress, making a pot of coffee on a coleman stove.
Sure theirs city dwellers who have basic survival skills, but I would say the majority do not. These are going to be the one stuck along the hiway, out of gas with no food or water.
A perfect target for bad people.......
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