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Discussion Starter · #661 ·
ETH looks incredibly bullish.

 

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Discussion Starter · #662 ·
I've mentioned MATIC before. PA hasn't been great because of a lot of sell offs over the past few months but it's looking up. That said, from a fundamentals standpoint, there may not be a better long term position outside of ETH than MATIC. They are doing some really amazing work on Ethereum scaling solutions and while it may take a year to pay off, I see them in a spot that eclipses all other competing L1s outside of ETH and BTC.
 

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GrowingFromScratch.com
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Just sold most of mine recently. James had this projected to hit from $15 - $32 by 2030. Not that he is the end all, be all, but if he is in the ballpark, that’s seems rather unremarkable. Are you seeing something different?
 

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This was the projections from James / Invest Answers 6 months ago for what it’s worth. Approximately 7X in 8 years on the LOW projection.

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Discussion Starter · #667 ·
Impressive amount of fear in crypto twitter and reddit right now. It'll be interesting to see how things shake out. Bitcoin does absolutely look weak, but this is stranger than normal. I swear people are acting more bearish not than when BTC tanked to 28k.
 

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GrowingFromScratch.com
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Impressive amount of fear in crypto twitter and reddit right now. It'll be interesting to see how things shake out. Bitcoin does absolutely look weak, but this is stranger than normal. I swear people are acting more bearish not than when BTC tanked to 28k.
I don't do Twitter, and don't like Reddit.. what's the buzz going on? Folks looking to sell? I imagine these folks are playing with much bigger stakes than I am. That's my impression anyway. If I had 100K all in on BTC and/or ETH, the volatility would probably shake me up too. Just saw another video by some established finance guy, Frank Holmes, projecting 100K ETH over the next decade.
 

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Discussion Starter · #669 ·
I don't do Twitter, and don't like Reddit.. what's the buzz going on? Folks looking to sell? I imagine these folks are playing with much bigger stakes than I am. That's my impression anyway. If I had 100K all in on BTC and/or ETH, the volatility would probably shake me up too. Just saw another video by some established finance guy, Frank Holmes, projecting 100K ETH over the next decade.
Just a lot of retail fear. On chain data points to big whales gobbling up ETH and BTC while retail panics.

Yeah, I've seen a lot of 2030 100k ETH discussion. As I've mentioned, if all the dominos fall perfectly, yes, I could see it happen. That said, even 20k ETH by 2030 would make me a happy man.
 

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GrowingFromScratch.com
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Well…. I thought I had bought the bottom a couple days ago LOL.
 

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You and me both. This nuke is looking like BTC wants to drag things back down to retest 43k.
Seems that would likely put ETH somewhere in the $2000’s. I would pounce.
 

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Discussion Starter · #673 ·
Seems that would likely put ETH somewhere in the $2000’s. I would pounce.
43k BTC would be somewhere between $2,500 and $3,600 for ETH. ETH has been gaining on the ratio steadily since Sept 2019, and since EIP-1559 was released in August has done fairly well. ETH above .07 BTC is bullish.
 

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ETH has been gaining on the ratio steadily since Sept 2019, and since EIP-1559 was released in August has done fairly well. ETH above .07 BTC is bullish.
Lending more credence to the flippening notion perhaps
 
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Noticed some wonky stuff going on with CoinmarketCap earlier. Hopped over to Coinbase, and it also was a bit odd for a bit.


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Discussion Starter · #676 ·
Lending more credence to the flippening notion perhaps
I think I've mentioned it before on here, but I'm skeptical of the flippening happening anytime soon. I'd like to see the merge to PoS happen May-June 22' and a robust L2 landscape built out before any flippening because I think it would be more likely to be long lasting and change perception in a way that we'd see more investment into the Ethereum ecosystem. I'm content to play the long game. There's still absolutely no guarantee that Ethereum flips Bitcoin or is wins out against other smart contract platforms but I think there's a good chance that both happen by 2025 and potentially much sooner.

2022' will be a crucial year for Ethereum to deliver, there's just way too much competition and heat for a floundering Ethereum to flourish if they don't. The merge needs to happen soon and to go smoothly.
 

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Not sounding good for ETH on fixing their problems at 6:30 into the video. I’m still holding though. Probably going to sell at a lot lower point though. Raoul Pal “conservatively” projects ETH to $20K by late spring, and that’s looking like a fantasy, especially considering the Buterin quotes in this video

 

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Discussion Starter · #679 · (Edited)
Watched the video, mixed bag in my opinion and too much getting distracted by short term shiny things.

First, we have to establish the purpose of public blockchains, which is they need to be decentralized, secure, credibly neutral, reliable, and open for users and developers to use.

Decentralization, security and scalability represent the blockchain trilemma. Ethereum has gone for maximum security and decentralization at the cost of scalability. This means it has very limited available blockspace and since demand is high for Ethereum's blockspace, it necessitates corresponding high fees as well.

To increase scalability, blockchains like Avalanche (an Ethereum GETH clone) up the gas limit to levels which necessitate less decentralization (more expensive cost/requirements to maintain nodes).

SOL does something similar, except takes hardware and bandwidth requirements to the extreme which essentially necessitates extremely costly nodes housed in data-centers which sacrifices decentralization. Furthermore to be profitable, one must have over 1M in stake to delegate, which means security is also sacrificed all in the name of scalability.

Solana fans like to throw out transaction throughput numbers that simply don't meet reality. I've seen people claiming 400k/s, which is only stuff committed to mempool, but realistically SOL can handle around 2,000 tx/s which for a blockchain is very very fast. When you start to dig under the hood though it gets much worse. Around 75% of those transactions are just consensus communication of nodes, so the real figure is about 500 tx/s, again, still very fast, which is why SOL has cheap fees.

Thing is, there are more problems. SOL has been down four times in the past few months. When it's under load, it tends to go down, and then since it's centralized, the devs who have control over the network shut it down and reboot (no I'm not kidding).

On the security front, we also have the massive VC problem for Solana. VCs own over 50% of SOL's circulating supply which is a major problem for a PoS blockchain. The pie chart below lists initial distributions of various blockchains. SOL isn't any more distributed today than at it's inception, on the other hand ETH is extremely distributed after six years of mining and market activity.

So SOL has a massive advantage in throughput and corresponding inexpensive fees compared to Ethereum which is where analysts typically end and make the conclusion that Solana is "better tech". In the short term, absolutely favors an L1 SOL vs L1 ETH comparison. The question then becomes, what's the long term outlook for Ethereum and Solana. Can Solana service hundreds of millions of people? The answer of course is no. To service that many users would necessitate a minimum of 100k/s throughput vs SOL's ~ 500/s. At this point in our analysis we're at an impasse because neither L1 can see mass adoption, and the potential for mass adoption is what drives these insane speculative valuations.

Where dose this leave us? Well, nobody knows for Solana, but Ethereum has pursued a modular, rollup centric roadmap for over two years now. Rollups inherit ETH L1 security, and provide endless scalability and flexibility to the Ethereum network. Potentially, millions of transactions a second could happen on ETH L2 rollups and then be settled to ETH L1. This is a similar setup to Bitcoin and it's Lightning Network, except much much more robust, no need for users to hold channels open, and allows devs to go absolutely crazy with application/use cases.

Most critics of rollups see them as Band-Aids, but this stems from a fundamental lack of understanding (or bag bias) to the discussion I've outlined above. Solana, while impressive now, will eventually become saturated with adoption, and have expensive fees, in addition to being FAR more expensive to scale and maintain the network than a rollup-centric Ethereum. The mistake people make is comparing Sol L1 to ETH L1 in terms of today's user demand, adoption and corresponding fees. Long term, given equal adoption, ETH L2s will be cheaper, faster, and much more secure/guaranteed than SOL L1.

I suspect we'll see the Solana team and their VC overlords (some of the scummiest people in the space btw) push for L2 later in 2022' on SOL in order to compete with a rapidly developing Ethereum ecosystem.

I certainly don't see this space as winner take all like the Bitcoin maxis do, but I do believe that the most secure, decentralized blockchain will serve as a global settlement layer if L2s can provide massive scaling. Big money (governments, financial institutions, billionaires) will see value in using the most secure and decentralized blockchain even if fees are higher than competition, after all that's what we're seeing from retail with massive demand for Ethereum blockspace despite the crazy fees. Ultimately, L2 ETH will be a penny or two for simple transactions and likely 3-5 cents per complex smart contract. If Sol is a penny or less a transaction at that point, will it matter? Maybe in certain use cases, and that's good, but I suspect Ethereum long term to retain a commanding market position even as the pie grows.

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GrowingFromScratch.com
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So much of your responses always lead me back to that blues analogy I PM'd you about. This one was no different. Along a similar path, I'm reminded of the adages regarding "style over substance" and "what have you done for me lately". ETH, as you describe it, is the craftsman that takes his time to construct a superior piece of furniture that gets handed down from father to son. SOL is the quickie prefab stuff you buy from IKEA that eventually breaks down. Most people only care about making money on their crypto in the short term, so the immediate style or ROI is much more important than the substance, the underlying integrity of the tech.

BTW, this is also the sense I get from Pal. He readily admits, he is not married to any particular flavor, just the one that is going to be the best bet in whatever timeframe to make the most profit from.

P.S. - you should start a Youtube channel with your analysis as an informed counterbalance to all the hype and hopium channels
 
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