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Discussion Starter #1
It's pretty easy to browse this forum and find plenty of examples of individual disasters that can cause SHTF and TEOTWAWKI scenarios, and fortunately the worst case examples tend to have the lowest probabilities.

However it's good to remember that it doesn't have to be a single event like nuclear winter or an asteroid strike to send us back to the iron age. Two or more events that by themselves may have ranked as merely Sh!t Hitting the Fan, could combine with a one-two punch to put an end to everything we know.

It appears highly likely we're looking at an out of control pandemic. My own guess is that it will probably involve a lot of inconvenience and tragedy, perhaps economic difficulties, and lots of government incompetence exposed, but ultimately nothing that we can't overcome. I doubt you're going to need to dip into your 30 year survival food rations for COVID-19. But the world is going to be on it's knees and vulnerable. That's what's keeping me up at night. It might only take something minor like a solar flare, a Krakatowa, or even a contested US presidential election, to provide the second punch that knocks us out where we can't recover.

I'm sure it's still a long shot we'll see such a one-two punch, but now that the first punch is about to land I'm not looking forward to rolling the dice on what happens next.
 

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Yup.

This sets us up for that 2nd punch.

We can see this first punch coming and it's going suck. But it is that unforeseen issue that might take us while our guard is compromised.

VEI 7 volcano eruption sending us into a mini ice age would definitely suck right now.

Unfortunately those do have a tendency of happening during solar minimum like the one we are heading into now.
 

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I think before it's over there will be a 6 month to 18 month gap in over seas shipments that will lead to long term shortages of a lot of every day items people depend on to the USA. Lots of store closings due to lack of product.
I do think some of the foods people depend on will no longer be available for about 2 years once they have been sold out. Food will still be available, but the cost and the diversity will drop. A lot of people will have to learn to truly cook.
I think about 1/2 to 3/4 of the nursing homes will have large amounts of deaths.
 

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Museum Piece
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still waiting for the next seal to be broken.
Some one has to build the temple on the mount.
Damascus has to burn like brimstone in a flash of an eye. (nukem till they glow)

What happens here does not matter. mystery Babylon is of no concern
 

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Indefatigable
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Your odds of dying are 50/50 EVERY day. The quicker you understand that and come to peace with it, the better your life will be.
 

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As an RN I would say that the chance of TEOTWAWKI due to COVID-19 is less than 10%.

However unless they come up with a more effective treatment, we are very possibly looking at SHTF. See, while the healthy people under 50 have a very excellent survival rate, and many of the younger people have only mild symptoms, a huge chunk of the population is OVER 50 or has a problem like high blood pressure, diabetes, asthma, etc. And the death rate for us slightly less healthy people is a lot hgher

TEOTWAWKI? I doubt it. SHTF? It depends on how quickly an effective treatment is found, as COVID-19 can spread a lot more quickly than the flu can. Because the infectious period for a sufferer lasts a lot longer than the infectious period of the flu does, and people with a light case of it might not even know that they have it

The game plan appears to be to study this illness ASAP while trying to keep it out of the country and slowing the spread. It is a good plan. It might well be enough
 

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Yup.

This sets us up for that 2nd punch.

We can see this first punch coming and it's going suck. But it is that unforeseen issue that might take us while our guard is compromised.

VEI 7 volcano eruption sending us into a mini ice age would definitely suck right now.

Unfortunately those do have a tendency of happening during solar minimum like the one we are heading into now.
VEI 7 eruptions are extremely rare. I would worry more about the overdue "big one" hitting Cali or the PNW.
 

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Your odds of dying are 50/50 EVERY day. The quicker you understand that and come to peace with it, the better your life will be.
Huh? So over ten days the cumulative odds of me surviving are:

0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.5^10 = 0.00098 = 0.098%

I might as well off myself now and get it over with.

A better way to assess your odds of dying would be through an actuarial table, assuming your health and genetics are close to average.
 

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Discussion Starter #9
As an RN I would say that the chance of TEOTWAWKI due to COVID-19 is less than 10%.
I agree it's likely much less than 10%. Spanish Flu was a worse virus with less sanitation and technology, but the world went on.

But we'll be pushed closer to the limit. People will be on edge, supply lines likely disrupted, governments struggling to maintain confidence. What happens in the unlucky scenario that something else comes along? What about a digital pandemic? Say a computer virus knocks out the global internet, or wipes out a good chunk of the the world's cloud data? Any number of countless scenarios that might have simply been a global disruption on their own.
 

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I think before it's over there will be a 6 month to 18 month gap in over seas shipments that will lead to long term shortages of a lot of every day items people depend on to the USA. Lots of store closings due to lack of product.
I do think some of the foods people depend on will no longer be available for about 2 years once they have been sold out. Food will still be available, but the cost and the diversity will drop. A lot of people will have to learn to truly cook.
I think about 1/2 to 3/4 of the nursing homes will have large amounts of deaths.
Ha~! What China DOES NOT WANT is for those industries to restart over here.
So I think they'll be trying very hard to keep on shipping stuff.
 

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Multiple punches across decades:

- Limits to growth on-going, as predicted during the early 1970s, with four decades of real data tracking forecasts;

- peak oil (conventional, 2005) as predicted during the 1970s; per capita production (1979), world oil discoveries (1960s), tight oil soon;

- global warming effects on-going, with warnings raised by the U.S. military and various banks and insurers; includes water wars, pollution, species die-offs, and increased vectors for the spread of disease;

- epidemics and pandemics on-going, with predictions raised across several decades and reported during the 1990s, together with antibiotic resistance, etc;

- increased arms deployment across three decades, as reported by FAS and other groups.

Only the public thinks we've seen just the first punch, or that TEOTWAWKI will be like what's depicted in spectacular Hollywood movies.
 

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Ha~! What China DOES NOT WANT is for those industries to restart over here.
So I think they'll be trying very hard to keep on shipping stuff.
I think China dose want everything to get back to normal as fast as possible and try to sweep the nightmare under the rug and get it out of the news. I think China will try to keep manufacturers from starting back up until there sure they able to keep the new cases to an exceptionable level what ever that is.

Some manufacturing processes can take days or weeks to get running and to get the kinks from shutting down worked out of them. Sea shipments from China to the USA are about 30 days port to port.

Not everything we get comes right from China. China might be back up and running, but other countries that some products rely on still might be fighting it off.

I never said that the stores would be empty. I'm saying some items will be lacking do to a supply shortage that is not easily fixed or worked around. If this affects any farming / packing operations around the would the affects could make some items hard to find fro a long time.
 

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Corona virus will be SHTF for many people as this triggers a nasty recession. If you dont have a 6 month emergency fund, this could really bite you.

having to go to the hospital for corona virus could bankrupt many people.

On the plus side if you believe in climate change, it will greatly reduce CO2 production.

If you are worried about medicare funding, it will disproportionately kill many people dependent on medicare and possible help reduce the budget deficit. It will also cause a one time transfer of wealth to younger generations who will spend it as we come out of the recession.
 

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Besides a recession, significant damage to supply chains, which means shortages across the board. With lower demand for oil, lower prices, which also means collapse of unconventional production. Meanwhile, lower CO2 might also mean the opposite of global dimming.

It's like that Aliens vs. Predator tagline: whoever wins...we lose.
 

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Your odds of dying are 50/50 EVERY day. The quicker you understand that and come to peace with it, the better your life will be.


Legitimately one of the dumbest things I have heard on this board for a long time.


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