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Take a look at all the countries having debt problems or employment problems...

To me all the signs are there that we are going to have a very bad situation happen soon - I can not see us going for years without some financial crash happening.

Jobs are not coming back, we are getting deeper in debt, fewer and fewer people are working... where the tipping point is at - I do not know... but unless we make drastic changes.... I think we will see another great depression
 

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Take a look at all the countries having debt problems or employment problems...

To me all the signs are there that we are going to have a very bad situation happen soon - I can not see us going for years without some financial crash happening.

Jobs are not coming back, we are getting deeper in debt, fewer and fewer people are working... where the tipping point is at - I do not know... but unless we make drastic changes.... I think we will see another great depression
I lean with you is regards to the feeling that the tipping point is near. The crescendo is close to a climax. The pace of events has accelerated greatly in the last couple of weeks. I have no idea how many more cards they have to play but eventually one of the cards will be pulled from the foundation of the house.
 

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Recession? No, with the real rate of unemployment at 18-20% (counting those still not working) recession is not the right term.

We are already in a full blown depression and continuing to borrow and spend money into a crippled economy is not making it any better.

Folks looking only at stocks and the financial area may see a different picture. But I encourage folks to look also at both US and world manufacturing demand and shipping activity.
 

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And here's a blog that says well maybe not.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/287044-averting-another-global-recession

But wait a minute here's one from the same site that says look out.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/285518-john-hussman-recession-warning

Well here's another one that says well yeah sort of maybe if well no but could be .... from the same site.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/286627-7-stocks-already-priced-for-recession

The point being is that no one knows for sure .... no one can predict anything with certainty other than that the market, interest rates, commodity prices, the weather, etc etc etc will indeed .......... fluccuate.

ANYONE can find a pundit that supports his/her point of view ... with all the pretty charts in the book to back themselves up. Half the time five pundits will have ten different interpretations of the same charts. If they knew a scintilla of what they think they do .... you would NEVER hear their names.

The most successful investors/advisors on this plant are completely anonymous ... and unless you have $50 million MINIMUM liquid to play (and are willing to tie it up for at least 6 months at a time), you will NEVER know who they are.

Hint: They ain't writing blogs on alpha, wsj, bloomberg, sacks, etc and they would NEVER reveal how THEY interpret charts.

That's why you should make your OWN decisions.
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
And here's a blog that says well maybe not.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/287044-averting-another-global-recession

But wait a minute here's one from the same site that says look out.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/285518-john-hussman-recession-warning

Well here's another one that says well yeah sort of maybe if well no but could be .... from the same site.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/286627-7-stocks-already-priced-for-recession

The point being is that no one knows for sure .... no one can predict anything with certainty other than that the market, interest rates, commodity prices, the weather, etc etc etc will indeed .......... fluccuate.

ANYONE can find a pundit that supports his/her point of view ... with all the pretty charts in the book to back themselves up. Half the time five pundits will have ten different interpretations of the same charts. If they knew a scintilla of what they think they do .... you would NEVER hear their names.

The most successful investors/advisors on this plant are completely anonymous ... and unless you have $50 million MINIMUM liquid to play (and are willing to tie it up for at least 6 months at a time), you will NEVER know who they are.

Hint: They ain't writing blogs on alpha, wsj, bloomberg, sacks, etc and they would NEVER reveal how THEY interpret charts.

That's why you should make your OWN decisions.
Correct, you dont need msm to tell you what the chart says, we all know the last 2 quarters gdp growth.

most as evidence by their replys think the write up was dead on, did you read it? if so, what are your thoughts on it?
 

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Correct, you dont need msm to tell you what the chart says, we all know the last 2 quarters gdp growth.

most as evidence by their replys think the write up was dead on, did you read it? if so, what are your thoughts on it?
Most as in who?

Are we running popularity contests here? Again if there are any of the $50 million dollar to get in hedge fund boys and girls in here let them speak up.

I think we are definitely softening up again ... but you could make a fair argument that the lack of any competent leadership or direction from Washington has an effect on corporate and consumer spending which is magnified in a soft "recovery". I hate that term recovery because I personally never thought the original recession ever ended.

One very small point in the plus column was the HUGE buys last week on the dips by corporate defined "insiders" .... very much spread across the board. These folks can't "daytrade" either so they weren't buying Monday and selling Tuesday. They aren't usually mad at money and felt their companies were a bargain at those prices. You can also make a fair point that Europe is a complete mess and maybe in a backwards way has masked the effect of the downgrade because of the overseas funds flowing into treasuries. There SHOULD have been some measure of a pop in rates from that downgrade.

The biggest bogeyman in my closet so to speak is real estate. It is just flat out ugly and simply WON'T relent from the slow inexorable slide. I looked at some land in MD in the spring that was priced 40% under what I looked at in 2007 and it STILL hasn't sold today. It's got me spooked to where I am afraid to throw an offer 15 percent under because they may take it. Rents even are starting to flatten out around here according to my pals still in the rental game ... and the quality of tenant has definitely decreased.
 

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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
Most as in who?

Are we running popularity contests here? Again if there are any of the $50 million dollar to get in hedge fund boys and girls in here let them speak up.

I think we are definitely softening up again ... but you could make a fair argument that the lack of any competent leadership or direction from Washington has an effect on corporate and consumer spending which is magnified in a soft "recovery". I hate that term recovery because I personally never thought the original recession ever ended.

One very small point in the plus column was the HUGE buys last week on the dips by corporate defined "insiders" .... very much spread across the board. These folks can't "daytrade" either so they weren't buying Monday and selling Tuesday. They aren't usually mad at money and felt their companies were a bargain at those prices. You can also make a fair point that Europe is a complete mess and maybe in a backwards way has masked the effect of the downgrade because of the overseas funds flowing into treasuries. There SHOULD have been some measure of a pop in rates from that downgrade.

The biggest bogeyman in my closet so to speak is real estate. It is just flat out ugly and simply WON'T relent from the slow inexorable slide. I looked at some land in MD in the spring that was priced 40% under what I looked at in 2007 and it STILL hasn't sold today. It's got me spooked to where I am afraid to throw an offer 15 percent under because they may take it. Rents even are starting to flatten out around here according to my pals still in the rental game ... and the quality of tenant has definitely decreased.
So leadership from washington, is what is keeping down consumer and corp spending?

Not record high corp and personal debt?

not high unemployment? Not that no one has any credit left, and those that do already have enough junk that they dont want to buy anymore crap?

Glad to know it is only the leadership holding us back, hopefully in 2012 we can change that, and then we will be back on track.
 

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Our problems have been brought on over an extended period of time starting in the 60,s No matter who gets elected it cant be fixed over night it will take years to do this lets face it the elite countries of the world have parted company with realalty. Time to pay the piper. But we are out of money, so we borrow it from china to give countries around the world aid.then we buy all our stuff from china with the money we borrowed from them so we can close down factories here at home seems reasonable to me [WTF] are we doing? We are not a [FINANCIAL SUPER POWER} we are a begger nation. world wide depression is comeing. JMO
 

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Here is an article going on 3 weeks ago stating that George Soros was sending back all of the money to outside investors of his hedge fund, making it a "family business" (aka He's protecting his own ass-ets))
http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/26/news/companies/soros_fund/index.htm
a few days later....stock market goes down by 10%. Notice the source of that link, cnn. Thats not conspiracy theory, but the truth is rarely limited to what hte media scratched the surface on. I sold 2/3 of what i held that day when I read that article, wish i had sold more. The only positive indicator we've had since 2008 was the stock market. Housing prices have not gone up, unemployment has not dissapated and GDP hasn't given much hope. I wholeheartedly agree with the several posters above that the recession never ended. Somehow the markets have been propped up, i wouldn't be surprised if they went back to the 2008 lows. ((sorry for hte long post)
 

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sorry to butt in but burning genuine question here, how do you define recession? Is it 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth?

Just checking as a "billion" is a different number in the USA than say Australia and I suspect UK (?)

Sadly I think we're going to see a number of consecutive dead cat bounces...cigar for the one who without doubt can predict the bottom out :thumb:

I'm strapping in for a bumpy ride:eek:
 

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So leadership from washington, is what is keeping down consumer and corp spending?

Not record high corp and personal debt?

not high unemployment? Not that no one has any credit left, and those that do already have enough junk that they dont want to buy anymore crap?

Glad to know it is only the leadership holding us back, hopefully in 2012 we can change that, and then we will be back on track.
Seriously Dougie. When are you going to learn to read?

I said it is a FACTOR. NOT THE ONLY REASON.

That ego ..........
 
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