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Through Knowledge, Peace
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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
I've been saying all along that this virus is going to change the landscape of the global economy. We are already seeing it first hand. In the last two days alone, 1.7 TRILLION dollars were lost in US stock value due to this Coronavirus

The S&P 500 just wiped out about $1.737 trillion of its value during its two-day market sell-off, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

The equity benchmark lost $810 billion in value on Tuesday, adding to its $927 billion loss on Monday, according to the firm’s Senior Index Analyst Howard Silverblatt. It’s down $2.138 trillion since last Wednesday’s high, according to S&P Dow Jones.

Stocks cratered again on Tuesday as investors fled riskier assets amid intense fears about a slowdown in global growth caused by the deadly coronavirus. The S&P 500′s two-day loss of 6.3% was the largest for the benchmark since August 2015, when the Chinese government devalued the yuan amid the U.S.-China trade war.
Companies like Apple, Nike, United Airlines and Mastercard have all raised flags about the coronavirus and its impact on their earnings. Chip stocks, which rely heavily on revenues from China, are being abandoned by Wall Street as it becomes more apparent supply chain disruption will persist until the epidemic is contained.

China — which is the second-largest economy in the world — has all but halted its production of consumer goods like phones, clothing, and automobiles for the past several weeks. The country has taken on unprecedented “wartime” measures to control the virus’s spread, such as placing severe restrictions of some 780 million people and instituting mass quarantines in major cities.
It’s still too early to measure the full financial impact of the virus on the tech industry, but the early signs don’t look good. Apple — the world’s most valuable tech company — said it is reducing its revenue targets this quarter in a rare company advisory released on Monday. Tesla said last week that “health epidemics” are a risk to its business. Amazon, whose e-commerce business relies on the flow of goods between China, the US, and other countries, has not released any similar warnings but is stockpiling supplier items from China to protect against future disruptions due to the virus. And Chinese companies themselves are feeling the hit, with tech giant Alibaba calling the outbreak a “black swan” event (as in, unpredictable) on a recent earnings call.
Virtually every major US tech company that builds physical products — like cellphones, computers, or video game consoles — relies on a vast Chinese workforce to manufacture products for cheaper than could be done in the US.

In the past few weeks, though, that supply chain, which includes everything from raw parts to finished products, has been fundamentally disrupted.


Amazon reached out last week to a number of suppliers for products sold in the US but made in China and encouraged them “to stockpile on certain products shipped from China, in anticipation of potential supply chain slowdowns caused by the coronavirus outbreak in the region,” according to the outlet.
The last health crisis to impact trade between China and the rest of the world was SARS in 2003. But at that time, the country wasn’t as important a player in the global economy as it is today.

I am predicting that many of the things that Americans once took for granted, from China, are going to be cut off for some time. Possibly forever, depending on how things play out.

Trump DID just get the USMCA passed, and promised to bring many factories back to the US.

Could this virus fast track the re-opening of factories in the US?

I'd like to see a list of companies that are going to take a huge hit from this.

"Jimmy Chill knows if you call it an overreaction and it gets worse , you are a fool, if you say it's only going to get worse then you are a fear-monger.. So let's just deal with the facts. We have lost containment. Now we need to slow it." - Jim Cramer
 

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I've been saying all along that this virus is going to change the landscape of the global economy. We are already seeing it first had. In the last two days alone, 1.7 TRILLION dollars were lost in US stock value due to this Coronavirus



















I am predicting that many of the things that Americans once took for granted, from China, are going to be cut off for some time. Possibly forever, depending on how things play out.

Trump DID just get the USMCA passed, and promised to bring many factories back to the US.

Could this virus fast track the re-opening of factories in the US?

I'd like to see a list of companies that are going to take a huge hit from this.

"Jimmy Chill knows if you call it an overreaction and it gets worse , you are a fool, if you say it's only going to get worse then you are a fear-monger.. So let's just deal with the facts. We have lost containment. Now we need to slow it." - Jim Cramer

The end must be drawing near because I 100% agree with everything you have said here. ;)
 

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Through Knowledge, Peace
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Discussion Starter #5
Whats china up to...

(REUTERS) - CHINESE policymakers have implemented a raft of measures to support an economy jolted by a coronavirus outbreak that is expected to have a devastating impact on first-quarter growth.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is attempting to restore investor confidence, while markets are shuddering at the potentially damaging impact of the virus on the global economy.

Below are some fiscal and monetary policies put in place by the government and the central bank since the outbreak:

** China cut the benchmark lending rate on Feb. 20 to lower financing costs for businesses.

The one-year loan prime rate (LPR), the new benchmark lending gauge introduced in August, was lowered by 10 basis points to 4.05% from 4.15% at the previous monthly fixing.

The five-year LPR was lowered by 5 basis points to 4.75% from 4.80%.

** Banks in Shanghai have issued 1.31 billion yuan ($186.8 million) in cheap loans to 48 key firms to help tackle the outbreak that has dampened economic activity, a local government official said on Wednesday.

** The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said on Feb. 17 it was lowering the rate on 200 billion yuan ($28.65 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to financial institutions by 10 basis points (bps) to 3.15% from 3.25% previously.

** Firms in Hubei province, the epicentre of the outbreak, will not have to pay pensions, jobless and work-injury insurance until June, state television quoted the cabinet as saying on Feb. 18.

Small firms in other provinces will be exempt from paying pensions, jobless insurance and work injury insurance until June, while payments by large firms will be reduced by half until April.

The government will also keep the minimum purchase price for rice stable this year, it said. It will accelerate hog production and increase state reserves of frozen pork, it added.

** China's Ministry of Finance said on Feb. 12 that it would reopen an issue of 1-year bonds from Jan. 9, auctioning an additional 26 billion yuan ($3.7 billion) on Feb. 19.

The bonds will be issued from Feb. 19 to Feb. 20 and begin secondary market trading on Feb. 24.

** China's southern province of Hainan has launched the first specially designed insurance product to cover losses incurred by businesses as a result of the coronavirus outbreak in the country, the banking and insurance regulator said on Feb. 17.

** On Feb. 3 and Feb. 4, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) pumped in 1.7 trillion yuan ($242.74 billion) through open market operations.

** China's central bank unexpectedly cuts some key short-term money market interest rates, and analysts predict more are likely. A central bank adviser says the possibility of a cut in the country's benchmark loan prime rate (LPR) on Feb. 20 has significantly increased.

** The central bank said on Feb. 6 that it will use tools such as targeted reserve requirement cuts, re-lending and rediscount, to support key sectors.

The cost of special re-lending, at 300 billion yuan, from the PBOC to commercial banks is relatively low, it said.

The PBOC has told banks to cap rates on loans for selected firms at 3.15%, 1 percentage point lower than the latest LPR. ** China's finance ministry said on Feb. 9 that all levels of government had allocated a total of 71.85 billion yuan ($10.26 billion) as of Saturday afternoon to fight the virus. ** China's finance ministry said on Feb. 1 materials directly used for epidemic control will be exempt from import tariffs from Jan. 1 to March 31.

Imports of donations including ambulances and disinfectant products will also be exempt from tariffs, value-added tax and consumption tax, the finance ministry said.** China's bond market regulator said on Feb. 5 it will actively support debt financing and debt issuance by companies heavily affected by a fast-spreading coronavirus outbreak.

The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors (NAFMII) also said it would support companies that have participated in containing the spread of the virus.

The association also said it would allow virus-hit firms to issue bonds and raise funds via other instruments including asset-backed notes.

(Compiled by Saumyadeb Chakrabarty, Bernard Orr and Shailesh Kuber)

https://money.usnews.com/investing/...ajor-steps-to-prop-up-coronavirus-hit-economy

Feb. 20, 2020, at 3:44 a.m
 

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This article lists several companies impacted either because their product or supplies to make their product come from China:

Mattel
Apple
Facebook (oculus)
Tesla

And also US travel companies having trouble because of the sudden drop in Chinese travel:

Wynn resorts
Las Vegas Sands
MGM resorts

And US companies losing sales in China
Sketchers
Starbucks
McDonald’s
Nike
Under Armor

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.la...coronavirus-impact-economy-business?_amp=true
 

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Through Knowledge, Peace
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Discussion Starter #7
The International Air Transport Association (IATA), the trade body for the global airline industry, warned last week that falling passenger demand would cost the airline industry $29.3bn (£23.7bn) in lost revenues this year, with global air travel expected to fall for the first time in more than a decade.

Luxury goods group Hermès will also provide an update to investors on Wednesday. Analysts have warned that transport groups, hospitality chains, airlines, luxury goods makers and retailers will be among those hardest hit by the coronavirus as Chinese consumers stay away from the shops and travellers put off holiday plans.

There are also concerns for global supply chains as Chinese factories remain closed. Jaguar Land Rover warned last week it could run out of car parts at its British factories by next week. The car manufacturer admitted it had been bringing in parts from China to the UK in suitcases.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...sion-director-warns-world-is-simply-not-ready


 

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Are we there yet?
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Yes, the markets are down 7% but they were up 6% for since Jan 1 2020 so the sky is hardly falling.

The stock market is fickle and volatility is exacerbated by algorithm trading software. In 3 months, the markets will recover.

Right now is a buying opportunity and I am a buyer.

Buy low, sell high. This is what buying low looks like.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 

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Yes, the markets are down 7% but they were up 6% for since Jan 1 2020 so the sky is hardly falling.

The stock market is fickle and volatility is exacerbated by algorithm trading software. In 3 months, the markets will recover.
Why 3 months?

I am largely out the market, and I will be a buyer, but I see the recovery being after "X"

X is of course the effects of the virus, and all the signs point to it being worse before it gets better.
THEN I will buy
 

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Issues related to service employees (ie restaurant workers etc)

What happens to a person forced to quarantine for 14 days if they dont get sick days, 2 checks gone? Employe fired for too many days out of work?

What happens to someone who feels a little sick like the common cold, are they willing to get hit with a 3000-4000 medical bill? And if they come out positive being forced to miss work for 14 days and/or fired and missing pay?

What is the guidance for this? Because those with mild cases are just going to show up and not shoot themselves in the foot trying to do the right thing.

Perfect example of someone trying to do the right thing getting nailed with a 3500 dollar bill.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...a-us-miami-osmel-martinez-azcue-a9358146.html
 

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I've been saying for a while it'll crash the stock market and then the economy if it doesn't get contained early. Also said this week was going to be when everyone became aware and things started to slide. Pretty sure we passed the point of no return this week. I'm confident the market is going to crash during the course of this pandemic.

The secondary effects of this virus are SHTF in themselves. We have all been going on for years, some decades about how something is eventually going to come along and cause an economic collapse, or a collapse in the supply chains. Well, this has turned into the perfect storm. It's likely to be a 3 for 1 SHTF. Pandemic, Economic Collapse, and Supply Chain Collapse.

Let's all go back to all those threads on Economic Collapse and Stock Market Crash and see what we said was going to happen.

And let's go back to all those Supply Chain Collapse threads too.

We may even have to pull out those Martial Law and WROL threads if this gets really nuts.
 

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I see all this as self inflicted. As long as the test is 3500 out of pocket no one is going to take it, and for what? So you are forced out of work 14 days, potentially losing your job and money for bills.

CDC has not provided any guidance. Lots of people with a mild form will just keep it under wraps and show up to work.

Want to stop the spread.

#1 announce a free test
#2 provide employee protection ie: paid stipend to cover loss for 14 day quarantine and job will be back for you once clear.
 

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Grevcon 10
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I see all this as self inflicted. As long as the test is 3500 out of pocket no one is going to take it, and for what? So you are forced out of work 14 days, potentially losing your job and money for bills.

CDC has not provided any guidance. Lots of people with a mild form will just keep it under wraps and show up to work.

Want to stop the spread.

#1 announce a free test
#2 provide employee protection ie: paid stipend to cover loss for 14 day quarantine and job will be back for you once clear.
Employee protections for quarantined people and people in infected areas, and paying for the tests with disaster funding is pretty much the bare minimum for any hope of even slowing this thing.
 

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Employee protections for quarantined people and people in infected areas, and paying for the tests with disaster funding is pretty much the bare minimum for any hope of even slowing this thing.
I don't see that happening and thats why the spread will be much faster and larger than China if it gets a hold of here in the US
 

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. It's likely to be a 3 for 1 SHTF. Pandemic, Economic Collapse, and Supply Chain Collapse..
Let's really really hope it's not a 4 for 1 SHTF... Loss of utilities\grid would be a true civilization ender.

As long as clean water flows, society has a chance
 

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I've been saying all along that this virus is going to change the landscape of the global economy. We are already seeing it first hand. In the last two days alone, 1.7 TRILLION dollars were lost in US stock value due to this Coronavirus


I am predicting that many of the things that Americans once took for granted, from China, are going to be cut off for some time. Possibly forever, depending on how things play out.

Trump DID just get the USMCA passed, and promised to bring many factories back to the US.

Could this virus fast track the re-opening of factories in the US?
Not short term. A FACTORY needs modern/modernized building, tools/equipment, management that is willing to get their hands dirty with icky old fashioned factory stuff. And most critical EMPLOYEES - the US does need useless coffee maids, Womens studies majors and similar.

You want mass production (low labor content) or the highly specialized limited production variety of goods we now have available courtesy of chicomland industry? The only two ways to get reasonable cost goods.
 

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During the trade war with China some production was moved to Taiwan in order to bypass tariffs. As they moved it, they looked at automating with robotics because they knew they couldn't afford or train people to do the jobs. Training robots takes time but you only need to do it once.

The US could theoretically start up critical supply chain factories here without employing as many people as when they left. They wouldn't even need them to produce everything, just enough to act as a small buffer if international chains break down.

Until China decides to restart their economic output in earnest again, we won't know the affects. They've been effectively down for 2 months now. Now that it's spreading it may affect the consumer side enough that it won't matter if they are ready to get back to work. They'll need to switch from car parts to PPE and ventilators or something else to stay afloat. Manufacturing is only half the equation.
 
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