I've been knee deep in Ukraine chats for a month now. But they are not specific to the economics/financial fallout.
My biggest concern is the economic blowback the sanctions would cause and the actions of the countries that don't condemn Russia. (i.e trading outside of the reserve currency)
We've already seen increases in crude oil, fertilizer, wheat futures, coal, and other commodities. This will have a worldwide effect. Fertilizers were already up tremendously before Russia invaded. Farmers are going to have a rough spring. Between fuel and fertilizer, many crops will not be profitable. Which snowballs to higher food costs. Crude oil increases goes across pretty much every industry - plastics, pharma, manufacturing, etc.
The other aspect of the Ukraine situation is, Putin's invasion might be the real kickoff of the world "choosing sides" and this will translate into how they trade and the basis for their trade. I see the US dollar as the reserve currency in jeopardy.
The sanctions have also raised awareness of just how far and deep they can reach when private companies get on board. I think many countries (and companies) now see this risk/exposure and will take measures to insulate themselves.
How bad can this get?
Hopefully someone can provide some light because I see some very dark macro economic things coming.
My biggest concern is the economic blowback the sanctions would cause and the actions of the countries that don't condemn Russia. (i.e trading outside of the reserve currency)
We've already seen increases in crude oil, fertilizer, wheat futures, coal, and other commodities. This will have a worldwide effect. Fertilizers were already up tremendously before Russia invaded. Farmers are going to have a rough spring. Between fuel and fertilizer, many crops will not be profitable. Which snowballs to higher food costs. Crude oil increases goes across pretty much every industry - plastics, pharma, manufacturing, etc.
The other aspect of the Ukraine situation is, Putin's invasion might be the real kickoff of the world "choosing sides" and this will translate into how they trade and the basis for their trade. I see the US dollar as the reserve currency in jeopardy.
The sanctions have also raised awareness of just how far and deep they can reach when private companies get on board. I think many countries (and companies) now see this risk/exposure and will take measures to insulate themselves.
How bad can this get?
Hopefully someone can provide some light because I see some very dark macro economic things coming.
