I think China is warming up rapidly to the idea they may like war. First they may have to tangle with their economy tanking, but maybe that will be the trigger to keep unrest at bay.
I think China is experiencing similar as the other newly industrialized countries, i.e., too much credit. That's why they have to build more real estate that won't be used.
Meanwhile, the U.S., like the ones which industrialized earlier, are experiencing trade deficits coupled with soaring debt, which means more credit that has to be made. That's why the U.S. started experiencing weak economic growth during the early 1960s, chronic trade deficits from the early 1970s onward, and rising debts across the board since the early 1980s.
What's keeping the U.S. afloat is ironically what caused those three problems: the use of the dollar as a reserve currency. That made the dollar more expensive, which also meant that U.S. products became more expensive and imports cheaper. This also explains why U.S. companies began outsourcing during the 1980s and more workers moving to service industries. Not surprisingly, Japan began to experience similar, and so did the tiger economies and even China, where I read more than a decade ago that 60 pct of their manufacturing is assembly as they also outsourced to poorer countries with cheap labor.
In order to make sure that almost everyone continues to use that dollar, which was also propped up through petrodollar recycling, the U.S. had to build over 800 military installations and bases worldwide with a military budget that is greater than that of the other military powers combined (which is doable if the currency you use to pay for that is needed by everyone else) to bully, invade, or coerce weaker countries.
The problem is that that ponzi scheme has been unravelling. More countries are engaged in bilateral trade with each other and use various currencies, planning to use special drawing rights using a basket of currencies instead of just the dollar, and forcing economic blocs. This also explains why during the current war even countries like Israel and Saudi Arabia are no longer listening to the U.S. and want to continue trade with Russia and others.
Given that, China gains nothing from war, but war is critical for the U.S. in order to keep that dollar propped up and to justify very high levels of military spending.
