[Todesking]

So do you think its going to be a slow decent into chaos where you can see it coming on the horizon? Or do you think its going to be like on the Dawn of the Dead remake where you wake up to sudden chaos?

 

[Rev.Hendricks]

Well, figuring on how most of the past Urban-based messes have happened, i think there will at least be some hint before it all goes wrong.

Hell, the current political/economic situation might be a big hint, but i figure that's why this site has so many members.

It always takes something to spur the insanity, and usually that's something that is foreseen, such as hurricane Katrina or the elections in Iran.

Right now, if i had to point to an immediate concern for possible civil disorder, it'd be the passing of the universal health care deal, or the implementation of mandatory h1n1 vaccination.

 

[aeropilot4fun]

Ok, here's the lame answer. It depends.

;-)

Nobody knows. Be flexible. Be alert. I'd rather have a few "false starts" than get caught behind the curve when SHTF.

Scenario planning is important to figure out what you need in your environment.

Even better - live life without power, etc. for a weekend and see how that goes.

Camping is great, but camping is easy. Try walking from point A to point B over a few days.

I guess I'm trying to say that theory is a good start, but there's no substitute for reality.

 

[overlordsshadow]

The longer they hold it off the more sudden and devastating it will be imho.

 

[trouble]

I think it will continue on as it has for the last several years for a while, interrupted every so often by something regional like Katrina. You'll see the big one coming I'd bet, maybe not months down the road but enough time to brace yourself.

 

[junglecrawler]

North America has never had a sudden, total SHTF yet. The closest we've come is the great depression and regionally in New Orleans, but those didn't even come close to an 'Alas Babylon' or 'The Road' type scenario.
Personally I don't think it will be quick, sharp and 'exciting'. I think it will be a long, tedious, erosion of our securities and comforts.
...Unless something ignites in the cities, then things could get ugly for all of us. If it's heavy handed government overstepping it's limits that one time too many, or if race-based strife conflagrates.

 

[Nately]

I think it will start slow and then build momentum. I still believe that in the inner cities, that once they are not recieving their checks and foodstamps (now in debit card form), or inflation is such that they cannot survive. The SHTF will begin. It will quickly move to the more affluent areas and then work it's way to the more middle class areas. The worse the economy gets the easier it will become for the gangs to recruit. The larger the gangs get the more agressive they will become. In my area you can see that the gangs are becoming more emboldened with the police. Right now the difference is somewhat small but it is increasing. Does anyone have any knowledge of how things are in such places as Detroit proper?

 

[stant]

thats my take on it. i keep a eye on La detroit miami.or the like trouble will start there first. folks in the interior have hunkered down.taking care of there own

 

[Kipper]

I think it will continue on as it has for the last several years for a while, interrupted every so often by something regional like Katrina. You'll see the big one coming I'd bet, maybe not months down the road but enough time to brace yourself.

+1.

The US is already in a slow collapse, and has been for around...

10 years based on oil prices.

8 years based on post 9/11 government policies (ie limits to freedoms)

A bit over 10 years based on this chart using government official inflation:
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/9/13/saupload_us_census_burea_median_income.png

Combined with this chart using pre-clinton inflation calculation: http://shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-cpi.gif

(basically your real wage is going down)

Around 12 years based on house prices:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate_bubble
http://efinancedirectory.com/articl...ect_Between_Home_Prices_and_Fundamentals.html

I cant find any good data that compares a range of foods quickly, but i'm guessing around 2 years based on wheat/corn/gut instinct

Of course the possibility still exists for a rapid decline if something happens. Noone really knows..

*edit*
About 10 years based on gold prices http://www.goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html

 

[junglecrawler]

I think it will start slow and then build momentum. I still believe that in the inner cities, that once they are not recieving their checks and foodstamps (now in debit card form), or inflation is such that they cannot survive. The SHTF will begin. It will quickly move to the more affluent areas and then work it's way to the more middle class areas. The worse the economy gets the easier it will become for the gangs to recruit. The larger the gangs get the more agressive they will become. In my area you can see that the gangs are becoming more emboldened with the police. Right now the difference is somewhat small but it is increasing. Does anyone have any knowledge of how things are in such places as Detroit proper?

Remember the riots for that multiple felon, Rodney King? What was skirted over in the news was that whole city blocks were held by gun toting homies, sniping at LEO's, who had to use armoured cars to enter the areas.
Racial tension in Montreal is quite high these days as well, and the cops there aren't helping any. I know first hand they're heavy handed.

 

[jason1221]

Well, figuring on how most of the past Urban-based messes have happened, i think there will at least be some hint before it all goes wrong.

Hell, the current political/economic situation might be a big hint, but i figure that's why this site has so many members.

It always takes something to spur the insanity, and usually that's something that is foreseen, such as hurricane Katrina or the elections in Iran.

Right now, if i had to point to an immediate concern for possible civil disorder, it'd be the passing of the universal health care deal, or the implementation of mandatory h1n1 vaccination.

It will be around 2011 because thats the year inflation becomes totaly out of control.This comming year will be worse than 2009 stock market will take another dive soon.The government will get worse until balance is brought back to the house,congress and senate.(not like republicans are a hole lot better these days).The next big thing is if there is a crisis then the U.S.A will become the U.S.S.A with all the czars we have that would be the biggest game changer.

 

[123Testing]

We are ALREADY on the slow decent. Problem is... the sleeping masses still don't recognize it. Once the sleeping masses awake, and realize they've been DUPED... that's the moment of chaos. JMHO

 

[swordsman2000]

My optimistic side says:

-People may blow of steam very soon; but once that steam is gone people will settle down

-People like their comforts and will do what it takes to regain normalcy in order to have them

-The American Spirit is Faaaar from dead and will overcome

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My Pessimistic side says:

-Certain elements of American society have been reached a point of such degradation that anything is possible

-The amount of 'Good' people seems to be dwindling

-America has more and more people who are only "Americans" because they have a little card that says so; some have been helpful but many have injected a very Anti-American poison into Her veins

-ALOT of people are sitting on their fence in a trance

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nothing is etched in stone..Fate or Fortune

"We shall nobley save or meanly lose that last hope on Earth"...Abraham Lincoln

Who knows

 

[Hick Industries]

I agree that the US has been declining for the last fifteen years. I think this started with the Nafta treaty passed in 1993.

Clinton spent 8 years frittering away our military and economic power. He and the Congressional Einsteins cut our military in half in their first 3 years. They passed laws allowing (even requiring) sub prime mortgages in 1994 and repealing regulation of the the banking industry in 1999.

Bush jr spent all of his time trying to get Osama, he should have spent a little time at least reversing the laws allowing sub prime mortgages and bank investments in derivitives.

Now without any adult leadership we will continue to decline. I believe it will take many more years of printing money and lying about job creation for the sheeple to realize that we have hit bottom. We will ulitimately suffer hyperinflation and the collapse of the dollar. Since we will not develop our own energy reserves, we will suffer from shortages of imported oil. The climate is turning colder due to a drop in sun spot activities and the oceans are getting colder. This year we started to see a drop in crop yields.

America is a big ship and it takes a long time to turn here or reverse course, but I think we are diffinitely headed for the rocks.

 

[MCraider]

As long as cable TV still broadcast, pizza is delivered and beer is available things will be just fine.

 

[Rev.Hendricks]

Does anyone have any knowledge of how things are in such places as Detroit proper?

Detroit was never a walk in the park to begin with, but it has begun spilling over into suburban areas. Even an hour outside Detroit in a tiny and pleasant suburb, we have seen an increase in B&E and armed robbery. Leads me to believe that the rats are jumping ship.

 

[Howey01]

I think everyone knows the decline is coming there is already reports of food items shortages in certain areas it might start in larger cities and spiral out but it's bound to happen should be some good indication not months but days. Howard

 

[East Coast Woods]

Think it is slowwwwwwwwww. I say "is" versus "will be" because I feel we have been in it for some period. So slowwwww many think there is somethiong wrong, just can't put their finger on it. The politicians make promises of glory and a candy land future, and throw money out every where they can. All this serves as a band aid does, but when the bandage gets wet it will fall off revealing the massive wound that not only this country but the entire world is facing.

 

[375H&H]

Slow decline until the spark.

Spark will cause a fire.

Fire will spread.

No one knows what the spark will be. No one knows where the fire will start.
No one knows how long it will take the fire to spread. But the most important thing is, that by being here on this forum you have already demonstrated awareness.

When you see the spark causing the fire you will know what's coming next. The majority of people don't have that awareness so they will lag behind. By staying awake you will be a few steps ahead of them.

 

[Maurepas]

People rebel when they see no other way out.

Every day more people are being effected by our slow decline. The tipping point will occur when enough lose hope of a solution and faith in government's ability to turn us around.

If the trigger event comes from outside our borders, we'll see the opposite effect. People will pull together to fight an outside threat.