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If so, it may be a big boom to the healthcare industry. They could charge $100k - $200K for each case...maybe more. Have no idea, the sky's the limit when it comes to USA healthcare and the $$ bill.
 

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I received an email WARNING, letting me know the gist of what's happening in the U.S. It stated there were now 110 cases here, of which only 5 have been confirmed, i.e., California (2), Washington state, Arizona, and 1 other (I forget now). Only 32 cases have turned up negative.
Who knows if there were more that haven't come forward yet, likely due to fear or ignorance? Seems like it could spread here, if many think it's NOT a big deal, i.e., a common cold or just the regular flu?
And what about those who try to get by with self treatment, until it becomes apparent they've been exposed?
 

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It most definitely is coming here. It can be spread when you don't show symptoms. One person is infecting about 4 on average. They were late trying to contain it. And there is way too much travel between countries. We'll be at a quarter million before February is over. And over a million before mid-March.

...restrictions and quarantines at this point are for public show. At best, they're delaying things.
 

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If so, it may be a big boom to the healthcare industry. They could charge $100k - $200K for each case...maybe more. Have no idea, the sky's the limit when it comes to USA healthcare and the $$ bill.
Too soon to say.

However, if it does truly “get legs” here, it could likely cause a cascading economic catastrophe the likes of which have never been seen.

Please take into account that I’m not screaming “the sky is falling” & such.

You asked. I’m making a sound guesstimate of a WORSE case scenario.

A best case scenario would be it doesn’t get legs here, no associated case clusters without direct Wuhan/China contact. Easily cared for. Media excitement / theme music / talking heads / shooting for ratings bonanza!

A low range case scenario would likely entail regional, but limited case clusters. Media concern, downplay, less theme music, limited talking heads, more true experts, less concern for ratings-just rolling back to doing actual reporting, not hype.

Beyond low range, IMO, pretty bad news for the economy. And life as we currently know it.

The critical care infrastructure is simply not there. From providers to ancillary staff to durable equipment. Many critical care units run near or at capacity. Currently. We will do the best we can, with what we have.

We should all have a better idea in about a week or 2.
 

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Maybe. When it does I'll just hunker down and wait it out.

I just attended a birthday party at a club in the city with about a hundred people in close quarters. Nobody seemed concerned, not even the 90 year-old whose birthday it was.

When cases start showing up in my state within 50 miles of me then I'll pay attention. And it's not like the local news isn't reporting what's going on.

By the way, two teen-aged boys died from the flu in the same city just a week ago.
 

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At least the government is being proactive and opening up Military bases for quarantining passengers from Iffy places. There are 3 in California now.

I haven’t a clue what they are doing in other states to contain the “passengers”.
 

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Based on the fact that in 2019 there were 369,000 Chinese students studying in the US (according to Statista.com), I suspect a large percentage of them went home over the long Christmas break (for them, the Chinese New Year). The timing was ideal for them to be exposed to the virus and then travel back to the US for the spring semester. That’s why I fear that the cases in the US may skyrocket in the next couple of weeks and unfortunately it may ravage many university campuses and then the families of the infected college students when they come home because they’re sick. There’s just no telling how this is going to play out Here.
 

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I received an email WARNING, letting me know the gist of what's happening in the U.S. It stated there were now 110 cases here, of which only 5 have been confirmed, i.e., California (2), Washington state, Arizona, and 1 other (I forget now). Only 32 cases have turned up negative.
Who knows if there were more that haven't come forward yet, likely due to fear or ignorance? Seems like it could spread here, if many think it's NOT a big deal, i.e., a common cold or just the regular flu?
And what about those who try to get by with self treatment, until it becomes apparent they've been exposed?
There's now 8 cases in the US. CA (3), IL (2), WA (1) MA (1) AZ (1).
And an article saying they suspect they have their first NY case.
 

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What accounts for the difference between China and the rest of the world could be all the pollution in China, as Justme11 was describing in the other thread.

He wrote that everybody there has gross coughs because of the pollution, and they're all developing bad conditions.

Not only would that make the coronavirus more of a killer there, but it would lead to it spreading more in China.

Really looks like the consistent opinion of the official experts is that the virus is not spreading in the USA. Seems like if there was a chance of this being untrue, they'd be at great risk of losing face.

It costs them nothing to instead say "We don't know, be careful, we'll have to see," if they think it could spread big in the USA.

It's going to kill tons of people in China, and be some kind of catalyst. It's either going to cause lots of people to flee China as refugees, or it's going to help the Chinese regime start to think it needs a war against the USA.

But the virus isn't going to spread a lot in America. It's just going to make a lot of people nervous.
 

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If we can ever work out the real numbers of how many who catch the virus actually progress to the critical stage, it would be easier to figure out if this is a "regular" flu thing (meaning a low percentage of deaths) or something much worse.

Based on the numbers of people who catch the flu every year, I would guess that there is a very real chance the the WuFlu will gain ground here...
 

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We are just 6 weeks in to this and I've seen a Lancet article saying there were probably 70,000+ cases. 2019-nCoV is just getting started. Lancet is a leading medical outlet to the medical industry, not some anonymous writer with a blog on a teeny tiny server in Timbuktu!

If 2019-nCoV gets legs in India, the Philippines...most of Asia, South America or Africa, suspended air travel to/from US will not matter. The entire globe will be infected.

Do I think it will happen? By the end of February or March we will know and at this time I give it a 51% chance of raging globally, and killing tens of millions.
 

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I received an email WARNING, letting me know the gist of what's happening in the U.S. It stated there were now 110 cases here, of which only 5 have been confirmed, i.e., California (2), Washington state, Arizona, and 1 other (I forget now). Only 32 cases have turned up negative.
Who knows if there were more that haven't come forward yet, likely due to fear or ignorance? Seems like it could spread here, if many think it's NOT a big deal, i.e., a common cold or just the regular flu?
And what about those who try to get by with self treatment, until it becomes apparent they've been exposed?
Who sent the warning?
 

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There's now 8 cases in the US. CA (3), IL (2), WA (1) MA (1) AZ (1).
And an article saying they suspect they have their first NY case.
Yup! And, considering Kalitta Air quickly converted one of their 747 freighters to carry 201 people back from China, how many of those do you think might be carrying the virus even though their initial screenings upon arrival at ANC didn't reveal anything?
 

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Who sent the warning?
I have NO idea. It came with a return email that said WARNING coronavirus + a bunch of letters following it. That was early this morning, but it came late lastnight. I don't usually check my email late at night.
Obiviously there's been an increase in deaths.
I'm stocking up more supplies so I can stay home, but I still have to go out Feb. 3rd & 4th... Dr.'s office and pharmacy. After that, I can stay home.
 

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Based on the fact that in 2019 there were 369,000 Chinese students studying in the US (according to Statista.com), I suspect a large percentage of them went home over the long Christmas break (for them, the Chinese New Year). The timing was ideal for them to be exposed to the virus and then travel back to the US for the spring semester. That’s why I fear that the cases in the US may skyrocket in the next couple of weeks and unfortunately it may ravage many university campuses and then the families of the infected college students when they come home because they’re sick. There’s just no telling how this is going to play out Here.
They can’t come in. No Chinese nationals allowed in the USA since Jan 31.

“Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar declared a public health emergency Friday. He said foreign citizens who have traveled anywhere in China within the past 14 days would be denied U.S. entry, while Americans who visited Hubei province would be quarantined for up to two week”

Can’t stump the trump. He don’t play.

If your a Chinese student you gotta stay in China until after the restrictions.

My guess is if it hasn’t blown up by March it will be contained. There are like 8 cases confirmed. If we get to less than a 100 by March it’s likely ok. .
 
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