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I'm seeing COVID19 being politicized by candidates and every news outlet is spinning the pandemic in different ways. I've for the most part avoided all of the mainstream reporting on the virus and have been doing my own interpretation and forming my own opinions based on the reported data.

That leads me to a question. How reliable / accurate can the reported statistics for the United States possibly be when I'm hearing regular reports of people being refused testing by their primary care provider or an urgent care center? MANY healthcare providers are outright refusing to submit samples for testing unless the patient has recently traveled abroad. A policy like that almost certainly is leaving large numbers of community-contracted cases unreported.

With an r-naught of 3, and the fact that patients don't seek care and testing until symptoms appear, the cities/states/regions showing single-digit statistics just seem questionable to me.

Personally, for my own 'picture' of the spread and my own preparedness I've been multiplying every statistic for the US by 4. I think that for every one known case, there are likely three cases of infection that have thus far been undiagnosed / untested.


Opinions?



Ric
 

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I'm seeing COVID19 being politicized by candidates and every news outlet is spinning the pandemic in different ways. I've for the most part avoided all of the mainstream reporting on the virus and have been doing my own interpretation and forming my own opinions based on the reported data.

That leads me to a question. How reliable / accurate can the reported statistics for the United States possibly be when I'm hearing regular reports of people being refused testing by their primary care provider or an urgent care center? MANY healthcare providers are outright refusing to submit samples for testing unless the patient has recently traveled abroad. A policy like that almost certainly is leaving large numbers of community-contracted cases unreported.

With an r-naught of 3, and the fact that patients don't seek care and testing until symptoms appear, the cities/states/regions showing single-digit statistics just seem questionable to me.

Personally, for my own 'picture' of the spread and my own preparedness I've been multiplying every statistic for the US by 4. I think that for every one known case, there are likely three cases of infection that have thus far been undiagnosed / untested.


Opinions?



Ric
I think x4 is way to low. NPR had a guest who used to work in the cdc on the radio last Friday and they suggested x10 is probably on the low end of the real cases. As of then they were only testing people who had traveled to a location overseas that had it or were in contact with someone already tested positive. At that point there were many cases of people with pneumonia that weren't being tested because that didn't have contact with known cases. Testes were also in very short supply. Many people don't have it bad enough to go to the hospital. And many have just caught it and aren't showing symptoms yet.
 

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Speaking as a superannuated automotive process control metrologist, the data that's been published is so bad that it doesn't even deserve the name. I want to compare it to trying to machine engine blocks using a wooden ruler. Utterly pathetic. Any stats using the measly few data points they've got is purely GIGO.

/rant
 
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