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This morning I found myself listening to the radio in my car as I drove to work, tuned into KYW 1060. For all of you who live outside of the broadcast area, it is a news broadcast station by CBS which provides constant updates on traffic, finance, weather, local and national news. Several minutes into listening to various reports, the news broadcaster began to shift to the finance segment. What was stated left me rather stunned. Even before the segment was aired, the broadcaster stated it might be hard for some people to cope with…

A financial forecaster, Gerald Celente, stated that by 2012, in the U.S., there will be food riots, squatter and tax rebellions, ultimately leading to a revolution. I did a little Google search on this man and found out he is not entirely the quack I thought he was on the radio. Celente has made numerous predictions about financial situations in other countries and they have all came true. Heck, a year ago he predicted the financial problems this country is going through now. While I am not going to “head for the hills” now, I am taking this as a bit of a warning. There have been too many predictions of Dooms Day dates that have come and gone over the years. Y2K was the first big one for me that really got me started in the survivalist movement. Even if a revolution does not occur, I am getting the very strong feeling that even harder financial times are still ahead of us. What kind of shocked me was that I actually heard this over a legitimate news broadcasting network. Typically we don’t see any major broadcasting stations giving us future warnings of something of this nature, lending me to believe things could be more serious than they are.

I found this Foxs News interview with Celente:

 

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Isn't 2012 the date that the Mayans predicted the world is going to turn over again and the gods would start over with a new race of people. (Basically the end of all that we know.)
 

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I really wish people would stop mentioning the damn Mayans. :p It sounds utterly ridiculous.

This is what -will- happen:

The next few months are going to be spent on more futile bailouts, with continuing expensive credit and economic bad news. The core problem has not been resolved: most major banks are insolvent due to trillions of dollars in bad loans and worthless securities still being carried on their books as valuable assets. All that has to unwind and eventually be reworked, paid off, or defaulted. That part is not finished; my humble, amateur estimate is that we are a third to a half of the way through it. The unwinding will cause significant deflation due to defaults and the contraction of the economy, but this will be masked by inflation induced by the Fed/Treasury. Default is increasingly likely for most of bad debt, although the Fed and the Treasury will do everything they possibly can to a) hide the fact that the banks and other companies/cities are insolvent, and b) try to funnel money to them so that they can "fix" their insolvency. Unfortunately, we don't have that money to give the banks squirreled away. That leaves us with four options: borrow it, tax it, print it, or cut spending.

Scenario A: Borrow It

This is the current course, and the one Obama, Bush, and McCain endorse. The timing of when this course fails is dependent on how much foreign investors are willing to lend us, and at what rates. Option 1: If they are willing to trust us and throw lots of money at us, it might take until after Obama's term to finally peter out. Option 2: If they aren't willing to trust us and require high rates, this option will evaporate in less than a year. The bond market is currently strong, but since there is about to be a supply glut due to the bailouts, it is very likely that yields will go up as demand softens.

Scenario B: Tax It

This is currently politically unpalatable. However, if we are unable to borrow and unwilling to cut spending, the choices will be down to printing money or taxing. Since we're already printing money (and have been for years), I believe taxes are the least likely option to actually occur, despite the fact that printing money is far worse for the country.

Scenario C: Print It

If we can't borrow the money and the current political climate does not allow for cutting spending, printing money is a likely option. There will be intense efforts to disguise this, since the Fed is acutely aware that our currency is fiat, and if confidence in the currency declines, runaway hyperinflation might result.

Scenario D: Cut Spending

The least likely in the current political climate, this would involve cutting Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid, dropping all the bailouts, cutting our military and all other goverment entities by 50-75%. Every attempt will be made to avoid this.

So we're in Scenario A1 right now, bonds are selling well and we're able to borrow at low rates. If this scenario continues, our national debt will double from pre-bailout in the next five years if not sooner. Within ten years, we will no longer be able to pay the service on our debt in addition to the entitlement programs, the military, and other government expenditures without increasing the deficit every year at a geometric rate. If pursued, this will eventually lead to a default on the national debt, hyperinflation, and the complete destruction of our economy (see Argentina's experience).

This scenario also includes significant nationalization of corporate assets in the United States. These poorly-run money-holes will act as a deadweight, and accelerate the process of debt growth and eventual default. There is, however, a significant chance that this route will lead to a resumption of American debt-driven consumption, in which case, we'll have what looks like a strong recovery fueled by the massive amounts of money now being channeled into the system. There will be another bubble, for a while, and then another crash because we will eventually hit the debt wall again. That crash will be far worse than the current issues and will probably result in the complete destruction of our economy.

Scenario A2 could be better (but still bad) for us depending on how we respond. Because of our current political structure, Scenario C, printing money, is the most likely to be pursued in this case - we have already institutionalized inflation, so it is politically easy to just do it and try to hide it (so that confidence doesn't evaporate). If we do that, we'll have a high and steady rate of inflation, which will make our debts easier to pay off, but will result in high prices and large-scale reduction in living standards across the United States. Once people figure out that inflation is being induced, there is a distinct possibility of a hyperinflation event, which will lead to the complete destruction of our economy.

If we go to Scenario B: Taxation, our tax rates may have to increase from 50 to 100% across the board (meaning tax rates of 60% on middle-income families, and 70-80% on high-income families). How much they increase depends greatly on what efforts are made to preserve our entitlement programs, and how far we are able to get into debt before we are unable to borrow more. The more we've borrowed, the higher the taxes will have to be to pay it off.

This scenario also involves large-scale nationalization of assets (in particular, healthcare, since no one will be able to afford it). Eventually, we'll have a stagnant economy with attempts at central planning that will mostly fail, leading to a low standard of living and frequent shortages of basic items. This country will be a strong police/nanny state with limited economic and social freedom for most people, and an upper elite that is extremely wealthy and powerful. We could come out of this eventually with a return to a proper market economy, but that will likely require a violent revolution, as the police state will not tolerate dissent on the necessary scale.

If we go to Scenario D, cutting spending, we will have a major depression, but the economy and the country will survive. The bailouts will fail, and economy will suffer large shocks as major companies that depended on government spending and/or bailouts go bankrupt or radically restructure. The auto industry will collapse into a tiny shell of its former self, and the rust belt will have serious political and social unrest due to unemployment and low living standards. Our service industry will go into a period of serious recession but will not go away. We will spend decades trying to pay off our debts, and will essentially be reduced to 3rd-world status on the world stage, no longer able to field a strong military.

This scenario includes massive deflation on a scale the world has never seen. Essentially, all the inflation that we've pumped into the economy in the last hundred years will be partially wrung out (just how much is a subject of much speculation). Prices will crash, but people will still not be able to afford things because they won't have any money. Unemployment will be extremely high, and will stay that way for a while. There will be very large amounts of social unrest as the entitlement programs are cut off. There is a possibility of a partial or total societal collapse in this case, depending on how crazy people decide to get when faced with tough times. We've gone through a period like this before as a country, but we are not the country now that we were then.
 

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Personally, I am leaving the US for greener pastures once I am finished with college. As much as I would like to stick around and fight the good fight for the people, it is a lost cause at this point. The powers that be will take whatever course they deem to be most expedient, and lo, like the Titanic, they will crash into the metaphoric iceberg and sink the economy.
 

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I agree that our collective financial situation is probably going to get much worse than it is presently, and that it will take many years to recover to where it was in 2006-2007. I think there will be intermittent food shortages, many more home forclosures, high unemployment (maybe 15-20%?) among the middle and upper middle classes and MAYBE some civil unrest, although I think this will be localized and not all across the US (or Europe, for that matter).

I don't put any stock into the Mayan stuff. If they were so smart, why don't they still have their empire? ;)

HippieSurvivalist
 

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Badjuju, thanks for the verification of my beliefs. Outstanding post. The timeline you have described is a simple cause and effect diagram that makes perfect sense. The only addition I might submit is to the last sentence of your post. We are, indeed, not the country now that we were then and also we will not be the country in the future that we are now.
 

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Badjuju, thanks for the verification of my beliefs. Outstanding post. The timeline you have described is a simple cause and effect diagram that makes perfect sense. The only addition I might submit is to the last sentence of your post. We are, indeed, not the country now that we were then and also we will not be the country in the future that we are now.
Personally, I feel America needs a dramatic awakening to the realities of the world; however, it pains me to think of how much much of a rude awakening this will be for many innocent people. The nation consumes far too much while offering little in return to the world at large.
 

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Discussion Starter #11
This is just a random thought which popped into my head...

Currently we have a prediction of the possibility of massive civil unrest and a government that could face a limited revolution. Obama has just been elected and made a comment on his "change.gov" website of banning "assault weapons" for civilian ownership. Hmm...disarming the population before the revolt begins. Now I've let the cat out of the bag! I'll go hide under my tin foil helmet now. :eek:
 

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Excellent info.

I was pleased to see Mr. Celente's video. It's about time people start getting realistic. I don't have TV so was a way for me to connect with TV news that makes sense. Thank you. Theresa
 

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Address Gun Violence in Cities: Obama and Biden would repeal the Tiahrt Amendment, which restricts the ability of local law enforcement to access important gun trace information, and give police officers across the nation the tools they need to solve gun crimes and fight the illegal arms trade. Obama and Biden also favor commonsense measures that respect the Second Amendment rights of gun owners, while keeping guns away from children and from criminals. They support closing the gun show loophole and making guns in this country childproof. They also support making the expired federal Assault Weapons Ban permanent.

THAT my freinds is a DIRECT QUOTE from osamabama's website. Read it and stock up.
 
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these days i really find it hard to believe folks might consider this kind of talk on the conspiracy side of the house. look at history, governments have disarmed it's citizens and suppressed them for ages. the problem is people still don't think it couldn't happen in the 'greatest country in the world', yet it's slowly happening right under our noses.

as for 2012, i tend to believe that the myan people (and many other previous civilizations) were simply accutely aware of the solar system and it's movements. i think they realized, through information passed down through generations, that around 2012 certain celestial things would happen and when these things happen major changes would/could take place. i don't see the whole 2012 thing as the end all, rather an unknown they couldn't predict or document. now, i would give my opinion on why the whole myan thing coinsides with what mr celente says and the things that are happening currently, but that for sure would be in the realm of conspiracy theories.

won't it be amusing when one day we all find out the truth about 2012 and relize it was something totally different and we were ALL wrong! :D:
 

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Heck, a year ago he predicted the financial problems this country is going through now. [/url]
If he was only predicting this finacial crisis was going to happen a year ago, then he is not very good at his soothesaying. I have a friend on a board of directors of a small bank who was saying this before the last election. Even I was preparing for the stockmarket to crash a year ago and finacial skills are way down on my skills list. The housing market was already in ruins a year ago, just the rest of the public kept their blinders on, stuck their fingers in their ears and began going la la la la so they wouldn't see it.

rill
 

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Now that we have our financial problem in place we need a natural disaster to happen to accelerate SHTF conditions...

Okay, here's my prediction: The next major problem to develop will be a drought this next summer all across our nation. I don't think that we will need to worry about terrorists for a few months. After all, Obama's administration has got to be in place a while so that the terrorists can rebuild and re-arm their rabble. Yep, look for a drought to effect food sources, growth and production. By the fall of 2009 Spam will be a luxury item that only survivalists will have or that the very rich can afford...
 

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Impossible. As predicted in the early 80s, we ran out of food back in 2000, when the oceans died and overpopulation killed us all off.

Oh...wait a minute, that didn't happen.

Seriously though, sooner or later one of these guys - maybe this guy who appears to be sitting in a pub - will hit the horror prediction jack pot. I always find it interesting reading as I quietly prepare, every day a little more...

BTW - someone on this board recommended Reliance water storage tanks, $8 at Walmart (in the camping section). Like an idiot, I saw my Walmart had several and put off the purchase. Went back this week and they are $10. This is only in the space of a month.
 

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Mayan long count calender represents the end of an age at the end of 2012 we will be moving from Pisces and into Aquarius remember the song from the 70's if some of the event really happen that they say it doesn't matter how smart they were other than to be prepared as best they can for survival. since none of us here have been through this before we cannot accurately predict what is going to happen.
 

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No one here can fully prepare for what is coming. It will out last you and wear you down till you are nothing. You will beg for death before it is all over.
 
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