[kev]

At what point do you personally take the coronavirus serious and change prepping gears?

We should take all viral outbreaks seriously, but some last a few weeks then taper off. The Coronavirus seems to be gaining steam rather than fading away. Then again, numbers could drop like a rock tomorrow.

My personal trigger was 10,000 cases, which we are suppose to reach either today or tomorrow (Friday). 2019-nCoV Global Cases (by Johns Hopkins CSSE) has been updating every evening, so we are due for an update anytime now.

Another trigger is clusters outside China. If we see clusters in any nation outside China we are dealing with a full blown outbreak. Especially if the outbreak is in improvised areas that lack modern medical care. One example is the homeless in California or Washington. How long would a homeless person walk the streets before seeking medical care.

I am still waiting for clusters outside China. When that happens we know things are out of hand.

 

[OneFrugalPrepper]

First human to human (today)
First Texas case
First US death
First DFW case


in that order.

 

[InOmaha]

I think if it takes off in India we'll have a better idea of it's true mortality rate.

Then we have to hope it doesn't get into a big city here. Few would follow quarantine procedures.

Most people here realize if it gets to 100 cases in a dense city in the US its probably going to explode.

 

[hardcalibres]

At what point do you personally take the coronavirus serious and change prepping gears?

About a week ago.....

 

[Armtx77]

Flu and flu related illnesses kill between 25k-50k a year in the US and the US has the most advanced medicine with the best system to deliver it.

When 1 million world wide die from this, I might take it seriously, but that is not going to happen either. China, once again, is not 1st world and barely make the cut for 2nd world and they have less than 200 dead with MILLIONS carrying, infected,showing symptoms or sick.
They have been hiding it for at least a month and lets triple the deaths because the Chinese are liars and put that rate at 600 deaths...25k-50k in the US

People need to calm down

 

[PeterWiggin]

Needs to have several cases in my state

 

[ozzie]

Last weekend. Mostly because I knew if my triggers were met, it would be too late to do much.

10 then 100 cases in my state, first death then 10 death in my country plus the timeline between those will change my plans further.

The lies and censorship are not just in China's domain, so I think the situation will remain fluid.

btw hopkins is slow in updating, try https://news.qq.com/zt2020/page/feiyan.htm and https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

 

[InOmaha]

Flu and flu related illnesses kill between 25k-50k a year in the US and the US has the most advanced medicine with the best system to deliver it.

When 1 million world wide die from this, I might take it seriously, but that is not going to happen either. China, once again, is not 1st world and barely make the cut for 2nd world and they have less than 200 dead with MILLIONS carrying, infected,showing symptoms or sick.
They have been hiding it for at least a month and lets triple the deaths because the Chinese are liars and put that rate at 600 deaths...25k-50k in the US

People need to calm down

If the flu kills that many in the US and China sucks at healthcare and there are 2 billion to our 350 million then China should lose 140 to 280,000 a year from the regular flu.

Why would China shut their country down and quarantine everything causing a potential global panic, interrupting trade, getting other countries to ban travel to there, and get the WHO in their stuff if it was a regular nothing to worry about illness that only killed a quarter million people there?

The Chinese would have no problem letting 500,000 die and not bother the world and their commerce if it was just a hearty flu strain.

Your argument holds no merit at this point based on China's reaction alone.

 

[retrieverman]

I’m watching the situation but not concerned yet. Me and my family absolutely never get sick, so unless it gets alot more virulent, we probably don’t have much to worry about. I have friends who catch everything that goes around, and they’re genuinely worried.

 

[Eagle Scout Survivor]

So most of the people that died where old. Hate to be harsh but old people die all the time from a cold/flu. Small list that supports my thought https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-coronavirus-victims-didn-t-even-have-a-fever

I am concerned that my daughter is at risk since she is a baby.

I guess my trigger would be a 100 people sick in my state or IL.

Or if the death rate increase to over 5%. Last time I checked it was still in the 2% range.

 

[warho]

South China Morning Post updates throughout the day:
https://multimedia.scmp.com/widgets/china/wuhanvirus/#

And CNN has been excellent with nearly 100 daily updates all week:
https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-01-31-20-intl-hnk/index.html

 

[elsapo]

6 cases in the us. Way far for my trigger point.

 

[jyo]

I am worried because this situation has been developing for far longer than China will admit---they have NO WAY of knowing any TRUE NUMBERS! And they LIE! My advice is get your preps in order, if very little or nothing happens, at least you're prepared, if this thing goes full-shout, God help us... Our sanitation here is much better than China (much better), but we have a large homeless population that could be hit very hard and spread the sickness in large cities... Stock up friends and hope for the best!

 

[JohnnyFamous]

First human to human (today)
First Texas case
First US death
First DFW case


in that order.

I'm close to these events. I'm only a few hours away from NYC, up north by Lake Ontario. Once ppl start dieing around my area NYC especially.

Then it's game on, time to go.

 

[JD1985]

So most of the people that died where old. Hate to be harsh but old people die all the time from a cold/flu. Small list that supports my thought https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-coronavirus-victims-didn-t-even-have-a-fever

I am concerned that my daughter is at risk since she is a baby.

I guess my trigger would be a 100 people sick in my state or IL.

Or if the death rate increase to over 5%. Last time I checked it was still in the 2% range.

The only valid estimation of death rate I've read was an initial study done on 41 people hospitalized and if I recall it came out to ~15%. While case reporting continues to increase at a logarithmic scale the death rate should continue at around 2% of overall cases. The only way it will near the actual real overall fatality rate is if the new infection rate slows considerably.

In reference to the high incidence of people with prior conditions being more vulnerable this happens with all illnesses, not sure how you'd eliminate that for statistics.

An anecdote for asymptomatic patients. This also happens with the regular flu. I would be willing to bet both my wife and myself were asymptomatic with the flu this year after having 3 children with it. We aren't counted in flu statistics either(and only one child was tested positive for it, the other two didn't need to go to a doctor)

 

[Snyper708]

First human to human (today)
First Texas case
First US death
First DFW case


in that order.

Do you have links to those?
Nothing comes up in searches.

 

[Exarmyguy]

1000 deaths in my country within the next few weeks.

 

[CONELRAD]

If you're focusing on cases or deaths alone without examining the demographics and health history of the cases... you are overreacting. When normally healthy people in the US, aged 18 to 50 show a >2% mortality rate due to 2019-nCoV, then I'll start to worry.

 

[William Ashley]

At what point do you personally take the coronavirus serious and change prepping gears?

I drive prepping automatic.

Although I am still waiting for more information - a major change for me would be the leathality.

Currently I do not think that it is a threat to myself at this point as I feel my immune system is enough to deal with it, on a regimine of high water intake, garlic, potassium regulation and holding off on coffee and hot sauces. I have a hold of natural health products I would fall back on.

A major point of changing my prepping gears would be if I actually fell ill. I would at that point be self quarentining as best I could.

Since I m out of country away from anything that would be Bugin Bugout related more or less.

I see the situation is concerning but based on the information I currently have I am not very concerned for my own wellbeing.

I do think we are going to go into a global recession and it is just the scale of these effects, that need to be waited on.

We are still within the 2 two weeks to a month timeframe I set aside about a week ago that I would take to figure out what i thought about it.




I am actually very optimistic in th shot term this may reduce the impact of the flu season atleast early on.

I am actively keeping an eye on reported cases.
Again I also suspect not all cases are being detected. Again I am not convinced this can really be stopped and may become the new cold but who knows I think the reality will set in for most people what is going on by the end of february.


I likewise am thinking it will spread rapidly in the developing work, and people will die in areas where people die of the flu and pneumonia. Most everywhere but NATO countries.


I think the homeless will see care if it is available. In fact traditionally they reack up big hospital bills and essentially can't pay.

Well see how it goes.

Countries are all now banning Chinese travel to their countries and if it isn't too little too late that may prevent rapid spready outside China but

the cats out of the bag perhaps.

Just how many cats are out of the bag is what we wait to see.

Again its not too early to implement level 4 methods by showing and changing before entering your home and wearing PPE at all other times but the fact is you will be a freakshow until people start tying in multiples in your locale.

 

[GrayFoal]

Already changed gears, buying and stocking. Discussing with friends & family what our trigger points will be for bugging in and bugging out.