[kev]

May have to create an account to read article, but I will try to sum it up for you.

Chinese patient is sick, goes to several hospitals, not a single hospital tests him for the Coronavirus. Finally gets admitted, still no Coronavirus test.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/27/world/asia/27china-coronavirus-health.html

Nothing to see here, move along, nobody is testing positive for Coronavirus, no new cases = because people are not being tested.

This draws into question how honest China is being with disease reporting. If you dont test, then there is nothing to report.

 

[kev]

Here is another article - http://archive.is/hf801

Her death certificate, which her family showed to The Washington Post, reads “severe pneumonia.”

I am willing to bet actual numbers are 10 times what China is reporting.

The patient in the article was not tested for Coronavirus

 

[PeterWiggin]

Proposed several times in main thread

 

[kev]

Proposed several times in main thread

Maybe so, but I do not want to read through 1,600+ posts in that thread.

 

[InOmaha]

I read they sent 1600 healthcare workers to Wuhan and were sending another 2500 soon.

So the reported numbers may go up just from processing more people.

 

[shado]

Of course, if they lack laboratory resources to do the testing, they'll concentrate on treating.

 

[Im RIght]

The nurse who hasn't seen their family in a week, who's stuck there with no end in sight, who's watching people die and hoping they don't catch it too, doesn't care about making sure you get accurate tallies. Not trying to sound rude.

 

[monkeystyle]

.

Actions speak louder than words or numbers in this case.

I agree, the number of actual cases is much much higher than being reported. As stated, this may be due to limited lab capacity, limited resources or stretched medical personnel; but China has a long history of under reporting the severity of events such as this and; China is under a lot of international pressure to contain this virus.

Wuhan is a city of 11 million people. If the actual number of cases really was 1,975 as reported over the weekend; the U.S., Russia, Japan and France wouldn't have been making emergency plans to evacuate their citizens from Wuhan, which also tells me that our government knows more about this than what is being reported.

Also, while China may need to send in medical workers to help Wuhan medical personnel treat the 4,474 victims, that number wouldn't be 1,600 at a ratio of adding 1 medical person per 2.8 cases, in addition to the number of Wuhan medical personnel that live there.

With this staged planning of sending in 1,600 medical personnel now and additional 2,500 medical personnel soon, this tells me two things: that China is both under reporting this and that they are expecting this thing to start blowing up in Wuhan shortly.

.

 

[KLF]

I am willing to bet actual numbers are 10 times what China is reporting.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...na-coronavirus-hong-kong-medical-experts-call

10 times could be a good estimate at this point. That estimate is based on a mathematical model, not testing. If the quarantine does not work, it could be 150 thousand new infections daily in the large chinese metropoles.

Some additional info here
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736(20)30183-5

Basically, very first infections were not related to the food market. So either they got infected by the original sick animal elsewhere or the virus was human-to-human transferrable already...

 

[Big_John]

Not only are they turning people away from hospitals with mild symptoms.... In order to become confirmed and a part of the published data.....

"Anonymous experts analyzed that Wuhan pneumonia was diagnosed in three stages. First, it needs to be tested positive by the local hospital. Second, it needs the conclusion of the clinical diagnosis of the expert group. Finally, it must send a sample to the Central Disease Control Center in Beijing. It is positive after the second test. For a diagnosis to be considered, this process takes 3 to 5 days under optimal conditions."


So.... Be given Test#1

If Possitive

Be given Test #2

If Possitive

Wait 3-5 days to be published in the CDCCB Report.

 

[SgtBooker44]

I have a daughter who works for California's version of CDC. She comes into the office in the morning and there are 45-50 media requests and twice the phone messages. She agrees that China is way under reporting because of economic losses. she thinks reporting may be 10%. Three cities are pretty much on lockdown. Nobody allowed to go out to go to work or buy groceries. People are contagious for up to a week before symptoms manifest. Anybody within 8 feet of a cough is at risk.

 

[Snyper708]

If the NYT said "the Sun will rise in the East tomorrow", I would wait to see it for myself before believing them.

 

[DWwolf]

I think people really over estimate the amount of tests a lab can run each day.

 

[jyo]

The death toll continues to rise---the "Official" death toll, as I write this is 170, and you KNOW that they really have no way of knowing real number... People still traveling all over China---sanitation really doesn't exist over there as we know it---washing hands is virtually unknown---spitting on the sidewalk is common (very common) and is considered normal---HUGE crowds are part of their culture---this could get real bad quickly...
I can only hope we can handle this situation much better---stock up on supplies NOW while you can still get them!

 

[powderandprimers]

They can't accurately report if they can't test. There is just no way to plan ahead to test hundreds or thousands of people per day at a site when they usually test maybe dozens.

Not enough personnel to take the tests, not enough people in the lab, not enough supplies, and there isn't enough clinical staff to care for the patients appropriately so the testing is not what they are or should be worried about. They need to treat the patients that are most in need of help. The guy standing in the lobby with a headache and sniffles or cough whose oxygen sats are ok probably isn't going to get tested.

Short of having an unlimited budget to have a massive testing staff and tons of testing supplies and huge labs this stuff just can't be done with this many people infected.

This is what I call a cascading failure of a medical system. They are overwhelmed and it is not going to get any better anytime soon. Very likely their clinical staff are going to be dropping like flies as well, not just the patients. Then what? Volunteers with little to no healthcare experience will do what they can, just like they did worldwide during the 1918 pandemic.

 

[McLovin]

China is way beyond testing at this point. They are in "ride it out and hope for the best" mode at this point.


McLOVIN

 

[Madoc]

Yes. They stop testing, they keep lying. I know, I'm harsh...

 

[Tusken Raider]

Wonder when scorched earth will be the option on the table for the Chinese.

 

[Fizbin]

Here is another article - http://archive.is/hf801


I am willing to bet actual numbers are 10 times what China is reporting.

The patient in the article was not tested for Coronavirus

Whether it is the corona virus, government budget figures, or any other FIGURE the government purports, always add a ZERO and you'll be a lot closer to the truth.

 

[BASS]

. China is not testing and denying autopsies and cremating the dead immediately. China has been hiding the CORONAVIRUS numbers from the world.

Watch Fox Business News and commentator. Gordon Chang. He is an American but has many friends and family members in China. Gordon is saying the virus numbers are way under reported.