[squirrel870]

Because of my home location (Long Island, NY) I've been giving a lot of thought to the bugging out process. Granted, my position is based on where I live, but I'm sure there are many other areas that will have similar problems.

For those not familiar with Long Island's geography, it is a long and narrow island jutting out from Manhattan in an east-west fashion. It is made up of 4 counties, two of which are actually boroughs of NYC (queens and brooklyn). The other two are suburbs of NYC (nassau and suffolk county). From east to west, they are layed out as follows: Brooklyn, Queens, Nassau, and Suffolk.

There are approximately 7.5 million people living on Long Island, and about a population density of 5,500 people per square mile (super tight). If Long Island was a state, it would rank as the 12th most populated, even though it is not quite as big as Rhode Island!

There are 10 bridges and tunnels leading out of Long Island (not including railways). 6 of them run east/west and connect directly to Manhattan, 3 of them run north/south and connect to the Bronx (which connects to downstate NY), and 1 bridge connects to Staten Island.

Now here's my assesment of Buggin outta here:
The 6 bridges/tunnels connecting to Manhattan to the west are not viable escape routes. Manhattan itself is an island with it's own population in the millions. It is more dense than Long Island, yet much smaller. Most disasters that would affect Long Island would likely affect Manhattan, so the people in Manhattan would be trying to get off of THEIR island and to the mainland to the west. Joining that fiasco would mean you are not actually a survivalist, but rather insane. So out of the 10 bridges/tunnels leading off Long Island, 6 just got thrown out.

The single bridge leading in a south/west direction to Staten Island would likely be a disasterous choice. Almost 492 thousand people live on Staten Island, and there are only 3 bridges running west to the mainland in New Jersey. One of those bridges leads to Bayonne, which is a sliver of an Island in NJ. Going there would simply require crossing another bridge to get to the mainland, so that choice is out. That leaves 2 bridges leading off of Staten Island to NJ. So to sum up, bugging out to the mainland via staten island would require joining a half million people trying to head west via 2 bridges. Not good. Possible, but not good.

The final 3 bridges head north, through the Bronx. Reaching the Bronx would allow you to continue north towards upstate NY, or Conn. While this would probably be the best option for escaping Long Island, it would be a nightmare. Between these 3 bridges, you might be able to use 6 lanes each (assuming both sides were used for evacuation). That would be 18 lanes running north off of Long Island...

If you include the south/west route of fleeing to staten island and then beyond, you might get another 10 lanes (big bridge) but the amount of lanes available would be nullified by the fact that you would now be basically trapped on another island. However, some people would go for it.

So here's how it might shake out (with conservative numbers). 7.5 million people flee Long Island. Lets assume some people are alone, others married, and others with families. Just to be fair, we'll say that translates to 3 people per car, which would put 2.5 million cars on the road. Now lets cut that by 20% for the people who decide to stay, or foolishly attempt mass transit. That means there could be 2 million cars fleeing the island.

2 million cars split up between 4 bridges, breaking out into 28 lanes. That would equal 71,428 cars PER LANE. This is obviously something that would not work. There is no way 71k cars can evacuate using one lane. Absolute gridlock would ensue, and most of the people would end up trapped on the roads. This is the reality of my location. If I don't get out early, I ain't getting out at all.

What's your reality? Have you considered it? I mean, REALLY considered it? Because sometimes, buggin out just ain't that easy.

Good luck to us all.

 

[Jameson]

Because of my home location (Long Island, NY) I've been giving a lot of thought to the bugging out process. Granted, my position is based on where I live, but I'm sure there are many other areas that will have similar problems.

For those not familiar with Long Island's geography, it is a long and narrow island jutting out from Manhattan in an east-west fashion. It is made up of 4 counties, two of which are actually boroughs of NYC (queens and brooklyn). The other two are suburbs of NYC (nassau and suffolk county). From east to west, they are layed out as follows: Brooklyn, Queens, Nassau, and Suffolk.

There are approximately 7.5 million people living on Long Island, and about a population density of 5,500 people per square mile (super tight). If Long Island was a state, it would rank as the 12th most populated, even though it is not quite as big as Rhode Island!

There are 10 bridges and tunnels leading out of Long Island (not including railways). 6 of them run east/west and connect directly to Manhattan, 3 of them run north/south and connect to the Bronx (which connects to downstate NY), and 1 bridge connects to Staten Island.

Now here's my assesment of Buggin outta here:
The 6 bridges/tunnels connecting to Manhattan to the west are not viable escape routes. Manhattan itself is an island with it's own population in the millions. It is more dense than Long Island, yet much smaller. Most disasters that would affect Long Island would likely affect Manhattan, so the people in Manhattan would be trying to get off of THEIR island and to the mainland to the west. Joining that fiasco would mean you are not actually a survivalist, but rather insane. So out of the 10 bridges/tunnels leading off Long Island, 6 just got thrown out.

The single bridge leading in a south/west direction to Staten Island would likely be a disasterous choice. Almost 492 thousand people live on Staten Island, and there are only 3 bridges running west to the mainland in New Jersey. One of those bridges leads to Bayonne, which is a sliver of an Island in NJ. Going there would simply require crossing another bridge to get to the mainland, so that choice is out. That leaves 2 bridges leading off of Staten Island to NJ. So to sum up, bugging out to the mainland via staten island would require joining a half million people trying to head west via 2 bridges. Not good. Possible, but not good.

The final 3 bridges head north, through the Bronx. Reaching the Bronx would allow you to continue north towards upstate NY, or Conn. While this would probably be the best option for escaping Long Island, it would be a nightmare. Between these 3 bridges, you might be able to use 6 lanes each (assuming both sides were used for evacuation). That would be 18 lanes running north off of Long Island...

If you include the south/west route of fleeing to staten island and then beyond, you might get another 10 lanes (big bridge) but the amount of lanes available would be nullified by the fact that you would now be basically trapped on another island. However, some people would go for it.

So here's how it might shake out (with conservative numbers). 7.5 million people flee Long Island. Lets assume some people are alone, others married, and others with families. Just to be fair, we'll say that translates to 3 people per car, which would put 2.5 million cars on the road. Now lets cut that by 20% for the people who decide to stay, or foolishly attempt mass transit. That means there could be 2 million cars fleeing the island.

2 million cars split up between 4 bridges, breaking out into 28 lanes. That would equal 71,428 cars PER LANE. This is obviously something that would not work. There is no way 71k cars can evacuate using one lane. Absolute gridlock would ensue, and most of the people would end up trapped on the roads. This is the reality of my location. If I don't get out early, I ain't getting out at all.

What's your reality? Have you considered it? I mean, REALLY considered it? Because sometimes, buggin out just ain't that easy.

Good luck to us all.

Damn, your location requires some serious pre-planning. I feel for folks in NY as getting out will suck. My recommendation to you, short of moving west, is to locate your fully stocked BOV in a storage in Atlantic city or something and purchase a small boat to get from Long Island to AC and then blow through NJ and go west or south from there, attempting to vacate NYC in the event of a major breakdown will be a significant undertaking in itself. Good Luck working that out at least you are addressing it now.

 

[Nimmer]

Maybe a submarine would work: I have heard of people living on boats so a sub should work but slip rent rates are high in that area.

 

[hank2222]

Because of my home location (Long Island, NY) I've been giving a lot of thought to the bugging out process. Granted, my position is based on where I live, but I'm sure there are many other areas that will have similar problems.

For those not familiar with Long Island's geography, it is a long and narrow island jutting out from Manhattan in an east-west fashion. It is made up of 4 counties, two of which are actually boroughs of NYC (queens and brooklyn). The other two are suburbs of NYC (nassau and suffolk county). From east to west, they are layed out as follows: Brooklyn, Queens, Nassau, and Suffolk.

There are approximately 7.5 million people living on Long Island, and about a population density of 5,500 people per square mile (super tight). If Long Island was a state, it would rank as the 12th most populated, even though it is not quite as big as Rhode Island!

There are 10 bridges and tunnels leading out of Long Island (not including railways). 6 of them run east/west and connect directly to Manhattan, 3 of them run north/south and connect to the Bronx (which connects to downstate NY), and 1 bridge connects to Staten Island.

Now here's my assesment of Buggin outta here:
The 6 bridges/tunnels connecting to Manhattan to the west are not viable escape routes. Manhattan itself is an island with it's own population in the millions. It is more dense than Long Island, yet much smaller. Most disasters that would affect Long Island would likely affect Manhattan, so the people in Manhattan would be trying to get off of THEIR island and to the mainland to the west. Joining that fiasco would mean you are not actually a survivalist, but rather insane. So out of the 10 bridges/tunnels leading off Long Island, 6 just got thrown out.

The single bridge leading in a south/west direction to Staten Island would likely be a disasterous choice. Almost 492 thousand people live on Staten Island, and there are only 3 bridges running west to the mainland in New Jersey. One of those bridges leads to Bayonne, which is a sliver of an Island in NJ. Going there would simply require crossing another bridge to get to the mainland, so that choice is out. That leaves 2 bridges leading off of Staten Island to NJ. So to sum up, bugging out to the mainland via staten island would require joining a half million people trying to head west via 2 bridges. Not good. Possible, but not good.

The final 3 bridges head north, through the Bronx. Reaching the Bronx would allow you to continue north towards upstate NY, or Conn. While this would probably be the best option for escaping Long Island, it would be a nightmare. Between these 3 bridges, you might be able to use 6 lanes each (assuming both sides were used for evacuation). That would be 18 lanes running north off of Long Island...

If you include the south/west route of fleeing to staten island and then beyond, you might get another 10 lanes (big bridge) but the amount of lanes available would be nullified by the fact that you would now be basically trapped on another island. However, some people would go for it.

So here's how it might shake out (with conservative numbers). 7.5 million people flee Long Island. Lets assume some people are alone, others married, and others with families. Just to be fair, we'll say that translates to 3 people per car, which would put 2.5 million cars on the road. Now lets cut that by 20% for the people who decide to stay, or foolishly attempt mass transit. That means there could be 2 million cars fleeing the island.

2 million cars split up between 4 bridges, breaking out into 28 lanes. That would equal 71,428 cars PER LANE. This is obviously something that would not work. There is no way 71k cars can evacuate using one lane. Absolute gridlock would ensue, and most of the people would end up trapped on the roads. This is the reality of my location. If I don't get out early, I ain't getting out at all.

What's your reality? Have you considered it? I mean, REALLY considered it? Because sometimes, buggin out just ain't that easy.

Good luck to us all.

your are right sir

belive me when i say this part of my plan was to let the whole world go to pot then wait about 14 days to 30 days of supplies in the apt then walk out useing a pre planned route then over to the a stowage place where a truck was going to be stashed with supplies for the trip down the back roads on a pre planned route that would take us away from larger main roads ..

if the truck was gone and the supplies not there because of looting we had a back up plan to get to another stowage place and get the small supplies we had then get down the trail to a resupply point that we had set up on a friend place and then travel down into tenn useing the trail intill we got to my friend place..

 

[DEFENDANDUPHOLD]

Long island bug out.....

Hey squirrel. I also live on long island..... Suffolk county. I am also concerned about getting out of dodge when the shtf. I have been pondering this very situation for about the last 12 months and still have no solution. Any way off the island by car would be complete madness once things got bad. Let's face it, if nyc gets hit again we're screwed. I think the best course of action is to either stay put until it is feasible to jump in the bov and leave swiftly or head out to the east end and take a boat across the long island sound to connecticut. From there it would be an easier trip upstate or to new england. Of course, having a means of water transportation is crucial. Personally, i would prefer to just jump in the jeep and go but like you said the roads will be clogged unless we get the jump on everyone.
Doesn't seem to be an easy answer to this one. I'm keeping up with my preps at home in case i need to bug in for an extended period of time. The way things are going lately, you never know what you might wake up to in the morning. Definitely don't want to be caught off guard. Good luck with your planning.

 

[SloTurtle]

Hey squirrel a fellow long Islander here. Early bird gets the worm, what i mean by that is that you have to go with your gut and leave earlier than most people will consider leaving.
Now with respect to getting off the island if you do wait for the last minute there are plenty of more options. If located in suffolk you have port jefferson ferry that takes you to Connecticut and onto the mainland, car and all. Then there is also just purchasing a Canoe or kayak (inflatable kayak if you dont have the space) and paddle yourself along with your BOB across the sound to Connecticut then head out on foot. Hope this helps Good luck.

 

[W.Lynn]

Fortunately, I'm married to someone who will NEVER, of his own will, be any place so packed in. To tell the truth, if you suggested he live east of the Mississippi river or west of Nevada (except maybe Alaska) he'd probably suggest you get some counselling.

Have to say, I also think a boat sounds good, but you have to sort out what kind of boat you will need, for how many people, with immediate-use items and BOBs. Where will you be going to? Once you get there, do you have the resources available to have prepared vehicle waiting in a storage unit? Can you get to it and get moving before local governments/guard units/local sheeple/FEMA decide to start "re-allocating available resources" for their own benefit?

Any chance you could move your entire business and home farther west and start making a better situation to bug-out from?

 

[charlie505]

I live in Manhattan - by choice.
If I have enough notice I would leave ASAP.
My plans include bugging in until safe to leave - most likely on foot - head out to NJ and then west to Pa. I am working on upping my supplies to 2 months worth - space is an issue.
Trying to drive out during an emergency is insane - as witnessed on 9-11.

 

[nuccx2001]

Any way you slice it, If you don't leave Long Island, or Manhattan WAY ahead of any Disaster, you should plan on Bugging in.

I live in Dutchess County, and feel my chances of bugging out "during" any emergency are fruitless. One disabled vehicle on any of the major roadways will cause hours of traffic to build.

Just driving out of Manhattan on a Friday night will cause you to rethink trying to leave in an emergency

 

[Herbalpagan]

so the choices are 1) bug in until it's safe to leave...2) advance notice...3) boat to Conn.
I'd have a boat and practice to see how it works. Keep supplies for bugging in and stay alert for advance notice.
Good luck to all of you!

 

[bad news]

You said ten bridges not including railways.

Do any of the rail bridges have causeways for foot travel, perhaps for maintenance or the like?

 

[Keyser Söze]

You said ten bridges not including railways.

Do any of the rail bridges have causeways for foot travel, perhaps for maintenance or the like?

That's my thought as well, though what do you do when you make it across?

 

[nadja]

Well, you could buy about 6 of the truck size innertubes, and make a small platform from a couple of sheets of osb which you would have prepainted with a marine paint or varnish. Then connecting the two sheets in the back say, build a small transom from a 2 x 12 about 20" long, which would mount a small out board motor. with pre drilled lash holes, and a paddle two help steer it, you should be able to get you and yours to the main land shore. Now , I am not suggesting that it would be a ski boat, but rather something to get you to shore. Done at night, very slow and quiet, you would not attract to much attention. Life preservers for everyone and also a bob for each person. Need it bigger, get more tubes and plywood. Also would be a nice touch if you also had a small 12v air compressor . You would want a small compressor at your house such as a contractor type which require very little space and work amazingly well .

 

[UmaineGreg]

That's my thought as well, though what do you do when you make it across?

Run like hell for anywhere but there...the OP did say he has a BOV and cache waiting for him. I think that the big problem would be the land sharks who will most likely be hunting for easy targets trying to escape on foot. Unfortunately, you can't escape the human condition and there are some out there who are just looking to make someone their prey. As far as getting out of NYC, I would suggest keeping an eye out in milsurp for the emergency inflatable zodiacs the navy uses. They come packed in a tube with an inflation tank and the small ones weigh 60-80lbs. Then you could just stand it in the corner and if nothing else it would make an awesome conversation piece.

 

[UmaineGreg]

Fortunately, I'm married to someone who will NEVER, of his own will, be any place so packed in. To tell the truth, if you suggested he live east of the Mississippi river or west of Nevada (except maybe Alaska) he'd probably suggest you get some counselling.

Have to say, I also think a boat sounds good, but you have to sort out what kind of boat you will need, for how many people, with immediate-use items and BOBs. Where will you be going to? Once you get there, do you have the resources available to have prepared vehicle waiting in a storage unit? Can you get to it and get moving before local governments/guard units/local sheeple/FEMA decide to start "re-allocating available resources" for their own benefit?

Any chance you could move your entire business and home farther west and start making a better situation to bug-out from?

well, if you study criminology a little you can raise this point to your husband. I live in Maine which has the second lowest crime rate in the country. The reason for that are the risk factors for crime. You need to look at location, pop density, urban setting, and climate. The places with the lowest crime are northern, low pop density, rural, and cold...which is why the northern midwest and northern new england (ME, VT, NH) have the lowest crime. Overall, population centers are just magnets for problems and in the case of any sort of collapse, will become disaster areas (look at the effects of Katrina). Panic+bottle neck+large pop=mass casualties and disaster.

 

[Recon3]

You all on long Island are not gone yet!

Just saying.

Having said that, I know it is easier said than done.

Recon3

 

[Highplains]

There is always the water route. Depending on exactly where on Long Island you are located would determine whether to cross the sound or to use the Hudson River. An inflatable boat with a 25 horsepower outboard and a BOB could get you to a pickup with preps stored in a secured storage lot within walking distance of the water. There are climate controlled storage rooms available for the food storage so it wouldn't have to be kept in the pickup. That gives you another option over trying to guess an early bug-out time.

 

[Oh_Three]

I also live in Manhattan and thought about to get out. I believe it would be insane to try and take the car. I’ve thought about a boat, but there are very few places it can be launched from. You would also have to try and launch it at night because desperate people seeing your means of escape will probably do desperate things. Not to mention the weight of the boat/raft and your supplies that would have to be carried to a launch point.

I was thinking the best way out might be from one of the rail tunnels. Dangerous if the trains are still running, but I believe the risk is worth it as it will help you bypass a desperate population trying to get out. I think we would probably bug in for a week and then try to walk out. Right now I have enough supplies for my family for one week and one week of supplies to take with us to get to our destination.

That is point I have reached in my plans right now. Preparing to move two adults, one child and a dog 245 miles by foot is a majot undertaking. I’m assuming we won’t be able to use many roads for safety sake and have been obtaining maps, compass, camping supplies, etc. Let’s just say my weekend “conditioning “ hikes have not gone well and we haven’t even added the packs yet. I haven’t even brought up the idea of walking out through a train tunnel, which believe it or not I have done in my youth. We use to run from station to station for fun and it isn’t as easy as it looks.

If I was to use the car, I would have to go early (very early). The question is when is it time to go? I’ve thought about this and unless there is an unexpected collapse of society I believe there will be some clues that it is about to happen. I believe one of the biggest clues will be the confiscation of weapons in NYC. In NYC all weapons (rifles, shotguns & pistols) have to be registered with the NYPD. They know where every legal weapon is kept in the City and I believe that if they had some warning they would do this. I don’t think thing it would be done for nefarious reasons but in a misguided attempt to protect the populace of the City. To that end I have applied for my permit and if the NYPD knocks on my door and asks for my weapon I would hand it over and be in the car within 30 minutes.

 

[ex-hunter]

I can't imagine why anyone would willingly live at such a target.

Leave now.

 

[Oni Kadaki]

Fellow Long Islander here, and I agree with Highplains. I've decided that, as long as the **** doesn't hit the fan in the form of a hurricane, the best route is probably the water. I live on the North Shore, to me, getting in a dingy at night and rowing my way across to Conn makes a lot of sense. At night on the water it is unlikely anybody is gonna see a single dingy, and if you row right it's dead silent.