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Grevcon 10
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Discussion Starter · #1 ·

It's been piling up for a little while now. China has no fear of the US now and I have little doubt they will attack Taiwan this year.

It's all coming together. They've built up their navy enough to do it, reformed their army and airforce to be perfectly suited to it, etc. Years ago China simply couldn't win an invasion against Taiwan proper. Now it's very possible. If they can maintain the beach head and get their heavy brigades landed Taiwan will be steamrolled to the mountains.

The only thing that can stop China is having their ships sunk by the US navy before they land heavy forces or a counter attack by heavy US forces. The US has allowed Taiwanese military equipment to stagnate and rot well below those of China. They're still driving around with M48 tanks.

I think China is confident the US is in no position currently economically or politically to intervene and it'll be a straight fight between them and Taiwan.

And frankly I think they're right and there's a majority chance here the US response will be "We strongly dislike China's attack but this is an internal Chinese matter and we can not interfere. We are instead urging negotiations."

We'll see how it plays out but I don't see how China doesn't at least take Taiwan's smaller island territories and try to embargo Taiwan.
 

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Personally, I don't see how we can complaint about China's invasion of Taiwan while we are occupying Syria.
I agree that the US is not in a position to do anything about it if it happens, in a military conflict China enjoys to big of a logistical advantage.
 

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Grevcon 10
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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
Personally, I don't see how we can complaint about China's invasion of Taiwan while we are occupying Syria.
I agree that the US is not in a position to do anything about it if it happens, in a military conflict China enjoys to big of a logistical advantage.
The US could sneak in military equipment to give the Republic of China the ability to defend themselves. Probably get enough in to Taiwan to change the balance of power before China caught on and launched their invasion early.
 

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Make no mistake Japan 🗾 is the key in the upcoming Axis and Allie's WWIII version just like Britain was the key in WWII. If Japan 🗾 falls. It's going to get really ugly. China is not stupid. NK will attack SK we will go to aid the 2nd Infantry Division. China attacks Japan 🗾 and in our navy our planes have no place to land. China will not make the mistake Japan 🗾 did in WW2. Russia will keep Nato frozen in fear. And who knows for sure what Iran will do. But it won't be good.
 

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China has bought and paid for us to stay out of this fight. After the coup in Nov 2020 was completed, I’m sure that ccp have been gearing up for this. Weak US “leaders” make opportunity for bad world bedfellows to misbehave.
When China moves on Taiwan, they may move on India also. When the world watches and starts seeing what is or isn’t happening, then more dominoes may start to fall.
The key for us is that China supplies so much crap to us, that if they cut us off, we are in a bad, Terrible spot in regards to everything from electronics to antibiotics. We simply MUST START bringing that production back home before we can do anything against China. Not that we have the WILL to do either at this point.
 

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The US has been wishy-washy about Taiwan since Nixon's visit. We support them, but we refuse to recognize them as a sovereign country, which they clearly are. Taiwan cannot defend itself against a mainland invasion, no matter what we give them in terms of arms.

Eventually, they will get invaded. China has always promised this. The US will do nothing and that will be the end of it.
 

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China has bought and paid for us to stay out of this fight. After the coup in Nov 2020 was completed, I’m sure that ccp have been gearing up for this. Weak US “leaders” make opportunity for bad world bedfellows to misbehave.
When China moves on Taiwan, they may move on India also. When the world watches and starts seeing what is or isn’t happening, then more dominoes may start to fall.
The key for us is that China supplies so much crap to us, that if they cut us off, we are in a bad, Terrible spot in regards to everything from electronics to antibiotics. We simply MUST START bringing that production back home before we can do anything against China. Not that we have the WILL to do either at this point.
I doubt they will move on India. The attempts they have made so far have not gone well for them. India is a whole different case than Taiwan. India has a well-equipped, badass military based on the British regimental system, with more recent combat experience than China. They have nuclear weapons on missiles that can reach most of China.

India will take over China's spot as having the largest population in a few years and is on track to take over the #1 spot as the world's largest economy in a couple of decades. Attacking India is more than even China can handle.
 

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The US has been wishy-washy about Taiwan since Nixon's visit. We support them, but we refuse to recognize them as a sovereign country, which they clearly are. Taiwan cannot defend itself against a mainland invasion, no matter what we give them in terms of arms.

Eventually, they will get invaded. China has always promised this. The US will do nothing and that will be the end of it.
Taiwan’s best bet is to just be the worst possible fly in the ointment. They will lose in the end , but if they make it painful enough and destroy enough manufacturing and infrastructure to make it not worth it, then that might be the smallest sense of a Pyrrhic victory for the Chinese. They want the people as slaves toiling away for them in those plants. If China cannot have that plus takes heavy military losses, it may not add up at this time. However, China is playing the long game. Winning hearts and minds, getting loyalists elected to government positions etc. So, it may not be too long until Taiwanese open their arms and welcome their conquerors onto the beach.
 

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Grevcon 10
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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
China has bought and paid for us to stay out of this fight. After the coup in Nov 2020 was completed, I’m sure that ccp have been gearing up for this. Weak US “leaders” make opportunity for bad world bedfellows to misbehave.
When China moves on Taiwan, they may move on India also. When the world watches and starts seeing what is or isn’t happening, then more dominoes may start to fall.
The key for us is that China supplies so much crap to us, that if they cut us off, we are in a bad, Terrible spot in regards to everything from electronics to antibiotics. We simply MUST START bringing that production back home before we can do anything against China. Not that we have the WILL to do either at this point.
The big concern here is that this could go one of two ways. Either a Czechoslovakia or a Poland. We don't know yet. But chances are it goes the Czechoslovakia path. If I had to guess China will do the slow 3 phase invasion as has been suggested in previous war college scenarios. Invade Quemoy, demand Taiwan concede. If they don't, invade Peng Hu. Demand they concede. If that doesn't work they're sitting right off the coast of Taiwan rapidly turning the islands into massive ports and airfields right off the coast of the main island. US may well get away with not intervening over just these islands without serious political cost even. But then China would be able to wipe out a lot of quality Taiwanese soldiers and eliminate the Taiwanese airforce and navy and have the beaches open waiting for them. Taiwan might consider negotiating a surrender with enough US pressure.

But that would likely lead to full mobilization in Taiwan, which may make an actual invasion of the main island far more difficult if the US caves to even an indirect role in the conflict pouring supplies into the east coast of Taiwan. And it could make the island impossible to invade if the gamble doesn't pay off and the US lands a couple fully equipped divisions on the island and piles 1/3 of the US navy into the area. So I could see China going all out on surprise main island invasion trying to establish a beach head before Taiwan can mobilize.
 

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Grevcon 10
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Discussion Starter · #13 · (Edited)
The US has been wishy-washy about Taiwan since Nixon's visit. We support them, but we refuse to recognize them as a sovereign country, which they clearly are. Taiwan cannot defend itself against a mainland invasion, no matter what we give them in terms of arms.

Eventually, they will get invaded. China has always promised this. The US will do nothing and that will be the end of it.
Taiwan used to be capable of completely stopping an invasion of the big island. They were fewer in number but they were much better equipped and going against an amphibious landing with few good landing areas. While they couldn't win a stand up total ground war they had air and naval superiority and could drown a beach in artillery. Now? China totally outclasses them in quality. China's worked hard on specifically those areas to reverse the quality gap. Taiwan used to have first pick of all our surplus basically for free or at cost. Then we cut them off and even denied them even new purchases. Had we kept it up they'd be decked like the US Military back in 2000 and be standing up their new F35s at the moment.

360698


Taiwanese air superiority that could have been.

And we've got their ability to defeat the PLA Navy sitting in the mothball fleet.

Unfortunately it became politically unacceptable to continue equipping their military. Too many Chinese threats to cut off our access to their labor.
 

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There is a huge global shortage of computer chips, esp. superconductors. They are required in all electronics, including fighters, missiles, targeting systems.... Could it be someone's military is stocking up so that the "enemy" can't replace / repair critical items damaged in battle?
 

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There is a huge global shortage of computer chips, esp. superconductors. They are required in all electronics, including fighters, missiles, targeting systems.... Could it be someone's military is stocking up so that the "enemy" can't replace / repair critical items damaged in battle?
Could be.
Or people are using their stimulas money to buy electronics because theyre bored at home.
 

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Hold the phone.

First there are several very specific aspect thats make a comparison to WWII a bit moot.
1: There is no formal Axis like agreement between Russia and China. They do have cooperation betweent hem, but much like Germany and the Soviets, it was more for convenience sake and to allow russia to build up for war.
2: The core of a European front is the Balklands NOT the Sudetenland. The Russians are interested in running the SP-2 pipeline. This is what the whole thing about the Crimea and the Donbas is all about.
3: But at the same time Turkey is backing Azerbaijan over Arminia. Dont discount this. Erdoğan has made it expressly clear he want a new Caliphate out of Turkey and a return of the old Lavant. This includes the wiping of Israel.
4: Iran is demanding a tribute from the US. What do you think all that money transfer from Bamster to them was about.
The Nuke talks are all smoke.
5: The Boys in Brussels are money hungry which is why Germany (the primary benefactor of the SP-2 gas line BTW) WONT engage Russia. Not over fear of war, but because they want the Nat. Gas and the money it will generate.
6: This one point is the most poignant: The US runs off of a capitalist system where money is what rules the day. This includes Military spending. To the Chinese, they dont give a damn about money or the capitalist system. They just make the military hardware and go kill. We run out of money and say.. Oh My GOD, we cant pay the army anymore.. we loose!. Why do you think the 'Military Industrial Complex" even exists? MONEY! China KNOWS this and KNOWS that if we are laid down with debt, we become mentally paralyzed and think...no money, no war. We loose.

In reality they don't use the money system to make their military, THEY JUST MAKE IT AND GO CONQUER!
that's why the move to take Taiwan is much much closer than we realize.
IMO weeks.


Now. One more point. Many think that the Chinese are pulling the strings here.
They are not. They simply gave us the tools to hang ourselves. Our greed and and our desire to play politics. They are unified, we are not. We did this to ourselves. And were goingt o pay a very heavy price for this.
 

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Grevcon 10
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Discussion Starter · #17 ·
In case people missed it from the article in the first post:

A major CCP figure gave a statement that: Chinese fighter jets will fly over Taiwan to "declare sovereignty" and "If Taiwan forces open fire, that will be the moment of all-out war across the Taiwan Strait,"

They intend to fly their planes right over Taiwan and then blame Taiwan for starting the invasion for defending their airspace. If Taiwan doesn't shoot them down they may very well be the opening attack of the invasion, and regardless of who fires first China will say it was Taiwan.
 

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Grevcon 10
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Discussion Starter · #18 ·
Also, the recent incursion was a bluff strike on a US carrier. The carrier didn't shoot them down so had it been a real opening strike they were close enough to have hit the carrier. That's why you do these bluff runs. Because you want the enemy to hesitate too long thinking it's another bluff and let you carry our your opening strike.

 

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In case people missed it from the article in the first post:

A major CCP figure gave a statement that: Chinese fighter jets will fly over Taiwan to "declare sovereignty" and "If Taiwan forces open fire, that will be the moment of all-out war across the Taiwan Strait,"

They intend to fly their planes right over Taiwan and then blame Taiwan for starting the invasion for defending their airspace. If Taiwan doesn't shoot them down they may very well be the opening attack of the invasion, and regardless of who fires first China will say it was Taiwan.
Can anyone say Manchuria?
 

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something to watch for in any China invasion plans is their maritime cargo fleet >>> China has the largest dedicated troop carrying transport fleet in the world - double anybody else - but - they'd be needing their cargo CONEX carriers for helicopter tending like the Brits did in the Falklands for Harriers/helicopters ...

they'd also want all their roll-on/off vehicle carriers for armor & mechanized - regular cargo for logistics and more troops ....

when you hear about any China shipping problems >>>> perk up your ears - not only will they be pulling ships for the invasion - belligerent countries make sure their ships aren't in enemy ports/territory when the balloon pops ....
 
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