[TheAsylum]

I read an article today that points to another great depression being a certainty. I just found it interesting that an economic analyst is now saying the same things that people have been saying on this forum for a long time. Here's the article. if you don't want to read the whole thing, there are a couple of paragraphs at the end that I thought were interesting.

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/216...-security-medicare-money-supply-recession.htm


In terms of preserving the purchasing power of your assets, the best thing I can think of is physical gold. That's worked over the millennia. I'm not per se a gold bug. It just happens to be a circumstance in which it's the cleanest asset around for that. You don't need to put all your assets into gold, but hold some. Hold some silver. I'd look to get some assets out of the U.S. dollar and look to get some assets out of the U.S. When I say outside of the U.S. dollar, again, I look at the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, Swiss franc in particular. I think they will tend to do particularly well, whereas the U.S. dollar is going to become effectively worthless.

As the dollar breaks down, you'll also likely see disruptions in supply chains, including shipments of food to grocery stores. People should consider maintaining stockpiles of basic goods needed for living, much as they would for a natural disaster. I sit on the Hayward fault in California. I have a supply of goods and basic necessities in case something terrible happens-natural or man-made-that will carry me for a couple of months. It may take that long for a barter system to evolve, which I think is what you're going to end up with; at least until a new currency system is reorganized and you get a government that's able to bring its fiscal house into order. No currency system in the U.S. is going to work unless the fiscal conditions that drove it into oblivion are also addressed.

 

[Steverino]

Good God man... this is an interview with John Williams, he owns www.shadowstats.com

.. this is well worth the read...

John Williams: A Hyper-Inflationary Great Depression Is Coming
Source: Tim McLaughlin and Karen Roche of The Gold Report 4/30/10

ShadowStats' John Williams has done his math and believes his numbers tell the truth. He explains why the U.S. is in a depression and why a "Hyper-Inflationary Great Depression" is now unavoidable. John also shares why he selects gold as a metal for asset conversion in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report.

The Gold Report: John, last December you stated, "The U.S. economic and systemic crisis of the past of the past two years are just precursors to a great collapse," or what you call a "hyper-inflationary great depression." Is this prediction unique to the U.S., or do you feel that other economies face the same fate?

John Williams: The hyper-inflationary portion largely will be unique to the U.S. If the U.S. falls into a great depression, there's no way the rest of the world cannot have some negative economic impact.

TGR: How will the United States' decreased economic power impact global economies? Will the rest of the world survive?

JW: People will find to their happy surprise that they'll be able to survive. Most businesses are pretty creative. The thing is, the U.S. economic activity accounts for roughly half that of the globe. There's no way that the U.S. economy can turn down severely without there being an equivalent, at least a parallel downturn outside the U.S. with its major trading partners.

When I talk about a great depression in the United States, it is coincident with a hyper-inflation. We're already in the deepest and longest economic contraction seen since the Great Depression. If you look at the timing as set by the National Bureau of Economic Research, which is the arbiter of U.S. recessions, as to whether or not we have one, they've refused to call an end to this one, so far. But assuming you called an end to it back in the middle of 2009, it would still be the longest recession seen since the first down-leg of the Great Depression.

In terms of depth, year-to-year decline in the gross domestic product, or GDP, as reported in the third quarter of 2009, was the steepest annual decline ever reported in that series, which goes back to the late '40s on a quarterly basis. Other than for the shutdown of war production at the end of World War II, which usually is not counted as a normal business cycle, the full annual decline in 2009 GDP was the deepest since the Great Depression. There's strong evidence that we're going to see an intensified downturn ahead, but it won't become a great depression until a hyper-inflation kicks in. That is because hyper-inflation will be very disruptive to the normal flow of commerce and will take you to really low levels of activity that we haven't seen probably in the history of the Republic.

Let me define what I mean by depression and great depression, because there's no formal definition out there that matches the common expectation. Before World War II, economic downturns commonly were referred to as depressions. If you drew a graph of the level of activity in a depression over time, it would show a dip in the economy, and you'd go down and then up. The down part was referred to as recession and the up part as recovery. The Great Depression was one that was so severe that in the post-World War II era, those looking at economic cycles tried to come up with a euphemism for "depression." They didn't want to create the image of or remind people of the 1930s. Basically, they called economic downturns recessions, and most people think of a depression now as a severe recession.

I've talked with people in the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the National Bureau of Economic Research in terms of developing a formal depression definition. The traditional definition of recession-that of two consecutive quarters of inflation-adjusted contraction in GDP-still is a solid one, despite recent refinements. Although there's no official consensus on this, generally, a depression would be considered a recession where peak-to-trough contraction in the economy was more than 10%; a great depression would be a recession where the peak-to-trough contraction was more than 25%.

We're borderline depression in terms of where we're going to be here before I think the hyper-inflation kicks in. You've certainly seen depression-like numbers in things such as retail sales, industrial production and new orders for durable goods, where you're down more than 10% from peak-to-trough. In terms of housing, you're down more than 75%, and that certainly would be in the great depression category. With hyper-inflation, you have disruption to the normal flow of commerce and that will slow things down very remarkably from where we are now.


.... more: http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/216...-security-medicare-money-supply-recession.htm

 

[blackkitty]

Never happen...but we will see a return of stagflation of the 1970's.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation

Already seeing it a bit...little to no growth (as we are all heavily indebted) and increases in prices (food, utilities, etc).

 

[Craig]

Here is another article that quotes a former Chairman of the House Banking Committee predicting the possibility of the "worst depression in our history."

 

[GardenSERF]

Nice to see the "experts" are finally catching up to the predictions made by some of here months ago.

 

[HaroldWayneHamlin]

With all the debt we (as a nation, as a world) have, I just do not see any recourse except a world wide depression.

the world is over populated, lose any willingness to save and do without needless items, industry built on throw away instead of building quality items. (not much industry left in America).

Outsourcing almost every thing that is done, hell, even the income tax preparation is being shipped to india (70 %) to be done by them over there for most major usa tax preparers services.

The whole world will become as a third world nation. Only the super rich will have any freedom from hard labor and scrambling day to day for a meal.

I am sure each generation during a depression felt the same way, but the prolblems we face today are much bigger and more complicated that in the past.

I think the worse thing that ever happened is the courts letting the coorps get so big and have the same rights as a living person.

later
wayne

 

[blackkitty]

Here is another article that quotes a former Chairman of the House Banking Committee predicting the possibility of the "worst depression in our history."

^^A newspaper from 1969???

Fix your link...

 

[aramchek]

Great summary. I've seen the effects of off-shoring in IT, and some are even worse than financial -- because they can produce long-term (if not permanent) rips in the fabric.

Off-shoring also results in loss of talent, loss of the creative culture of an organization. In our case, project managers are non-technical people and there's no longer any advancement opportunities for IT. Instead of moving up to manage the new hires (non-existent), IT/engineers are barely holding their own -- some organizations are basically run by accountants and chameleons with no vision.

I once toured an historic Shaker colony in New Hampshire (http://www.shakers.org/). At their height, apparently Shakers were extremely inventive, holding hundreds of patents. But as they transitioned into the modern age, a different mindset kicked in -- "cheaper to buy/import from the outside than build." This accountant's attitude expanded, and the colonies eventually all died. No longer inventive or productive, not in charge of their own destiny any more, brain drain, etc. I believe what happened to them will essentially happen to us as an entire nation and for largely the same reasons.

With all the debt we (as a nation, as a world) have, I just do not see any recourse except a world wide depression.

the world is over populated, lose any willingness to save and do without needless items, industry built on throw away instead of building quality items. (not much industry left in America).

Outsourcing almost every thing that is done, hell, even the income tax preparation is being shipped to india (70 %) to be done by them over there for most major usa tax preparers services.

The whole world will become as a third world nation. Only the super rich will have any freedom from hard labor and scrambling day to day for a meal.

I am sure each generation during a depression felt the same way, but the prolblems we face today are much bigger and more complicated that in the past.

I think the worse thing that ever happened is the courts letting the coorps get so big and have the same rights as a living person.

later
wayne

 

[luckyshot]

I read an article today that points to another great depression being a certainty. I just found it interesting that an economic analyst is now saying the same things that people have been saying on this forum for a long time. Here's the article. if you don't want to read the whole thing, there are a couple of paragraphs at the end that I thought were interesting.

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/216...-security-medicare-money-supply-recession.htm


In terms of preserving the purchasing power of your assets, the best thing I can think of is physical gold. That's worked over the millennia. I'm not per se a gold bug. It just happens to be a circumstance in which it's the cleanest asset around for that. You don't need to put all your assets into gold, but hold some. Hold some silver. I'd look to get some assets out of the U.S. dollar and look to get some assets out of the U.S. When I say outside of the U.S. dollar, again, I look at the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, Swiss franc in particular. I think they will tend to do particularly well, whereas the U.S. dollar is going to become effectively worthless.

As the dollar breaks down, you'll also likely see disruptions in supply chains, including shipments of food to grocery stores. People should consider maintaining stockpiles of basic goods needed for living, much as they would for a natural disaster. I sit on the Hayward fault in California. I have a supply of goods and basic necessities in case something terrible happens-natural or man-made-that will carry me for a couple of months. It may take that long for a barter system to evolve, which I think is what you're going to end up with; at least until a new currency system is reorganized and you get a government that's able to bring its fiscal house into order. No currency system in the U.S. is going to work unless the fiscal conditions that drove it into oblivion are also addressed.

it Don't Look Good and That's For SURE!!!!:upsidedown:

 

[caltrop]

Great?

The MEGA Depression!​

$1,400,000 is spent daily by the BIG BANKS to lobby Congress to make the laws favorable for THEM! And that's just the BANKS, there's the ENERGY & PHARMACEUTICAL CO's that have money to waste.

People who have lost their jobs can not file bankruptcy because CitiBank got Congress to change the laws. It now costs over $1,200 to file bankruptcy (that includes a lawyer) and then you still HAVE to pay a percentage to the credit card companies no matter what. It's OK for THEM to make money while we loose our houses & starve!

200,000 people a month are loosing their homes to the MORTGAGE CO's and that figure is not slowing down. I will soon be a statistic.

It's all about the MONEY!

It's time for the RICH to answer for the financial raping of people.

:upsidedown:

 

[aramchek]

There are some wealthy people who genuinely deserve it: creative visionaries, inventors, talented musicians, artists, surgeons, etc. But most of the world's wealthy are probably just exploiting a position such that they can skim wealth from others (parasitically), rather than actual contribution to society. And it's a self-sustaining feedback caste system. They're wealthy, so therefore they're justified in redistributing it one-way. To move it the other way is somehow morally wrong.

Real wealth can't easily be lost. It's built up over the centuries, by previous generations who built bridges, skyscrapers, surveyed and carved out roads, mined gold, etc. When wealth is connected to production of tangible or durable things, it takes a long time to lose it. And we have production capacity today that vastly out-matches anything in the course of human history.

When wealth is largely a shell game, it can't really be lost either (since it never existed). That's the part that gets my goat -- the banksters and their politicians are apparently deliberately throwing people into debt as a means of serf-like oppression and control. Maybe to preserve the caste system.

 

[Steverino]

Never happen...but we will see a return of stagflation of the 1970's.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation

Already seeing it a bit...little to no growth (as we are all heavily indebted) and increases in prices (food, utilities, etc).

Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies. For more than 25 years he has been a private consulting economist and a specialist in government economic reporting. His analysis and commentary have been featured widely in the popular media both in the U.S. and globally. Mr. Williams provides insight and analysis on his website, www.shadowstats.com.

Never happen?

... I'm inclined to believe Mr. Williams a bit more than you, since he's been doing this for a living for such a long time. His credentials and record sorta speak for themselves...

...care to give us a reason to consider why your viewpoint is a more accurate one? Compare your credentials vs. Mr. Williams?

 

[TheAsylum]

LoL, I had a friend try to tell me that it would be impossible as well. His only argument was that there are economic measures in place to regulate inflation, but couldn't articulate what those measures were and how effective they would be. This friend is currently in college and enrolled in economics class. Makes you wonder what they are teaching in schools these days. Not really, we know they aren't teaching near enough of what they should. It is funny how people can just dismiss so quickly the information from a proven professional. I'm not saying things will deteriorate by tomorrow, but it's the elephant in the room that we should be watching. In my oppinion.

 

[TheAsylum]

Also, to BlackKitty:
I see you're from Canada, apparently you guys have it alot better up there. In the article that I originally posted, John Williams specifically mentions that investing in Canada might be one of the better bets in the near future. All I can say is I hope you are right, but if Williams is right, we're all moving in with you! Maybe you could build an extra wing or two onto your house for us, just in case!

 

[Raygunner]

What this forum is about is 'survival'...that means you, and me. Read a bunch here about gloom and doom, off-shoring, corporate greed, banks 'putting people in debt'...talk of serfdom and caste societies.
Let's get real; we have the most advanced society in the world because we're smart, hard working, enterprising, and educated.
Taking quotes and snips from articles without doing your own version of economic self-education is worry-gossip. Me? I don't know all the answers. But if you take on PERSONAL DEBT that you can't sustain (talking about you and me, not the government) you're headed for trouble.
How do you maintain your own personal financial freedom? Educate yourself with skill-based knowledge, have courage, and maintain fiscal responsibility.
Buy and invest in what you think you need in order to maintain your long-term survival. If you don't have money to invest, you better find a way to get some. If you throw up your hands and claim the government or the corporate world is making you a victim, I've got news. You are.
Currency? Who knows. Gold, silver, energy stocks, food--these are basic needs.
Don't panic, watch the financial/global picture, and be smart.

 

[Crusis]

People who have lost their jobs can not file bankruptcy because CitiBank got Congress to change the laws. It now costs over $1,200 to file bankruptcy (that includes a lawyer) and then you still HAVE to pay a percentage to the credit card companies no matter what. It's OK for THEM to make money while we loose our houses & starve.

This simply isn't true. Chapter 7 bankruptcy will erase almost any and all debts as long as you aren't concealing assets that can be assigned to your creditors. The cost will be $1000 or more, but if you're really bankrupt that is a better alternative than continuing on the path you are on, I'd think.

 

[HaroldWayneHamlin]

Let's get real; we have the most advanced society in the world because we're smart, hard working, enterprising, and education.

end quote

It was not us and it is not us that built this use to be great nation.

Our forefathers, the last generation and the ones befoere them, built this nation.

Our generation, is living off the fat that they built up for us.

Our generation p i s i ssed off all they left us. We have college graduates that have to be taught by the few business that are still hiring Americans.

We are not the most advanced society in the world any more. We are (in most areas) not even in the top ten. We are not smart, we are crooks, fast buck artist, burn the candle at both ends, steal millions, billions, and then get govern to bail us out. Once the working poor bail the rich out, they go have a party and pay bonus s, with the money we gave them.

They are so powerful, that it is LAW that we can not even ask where they spent the money we bailed them out with.

Keep patting yourself on the back America, you are against the wall and sliding down into the gutter, just like any addict in the world.

In the end or forefathers were so right. We aer taken over from within. We vote ourselves wealth, short term everyone is giddy, Mid term reality sets in for some, and long term the poor go after the rich and a lot of innocent rich will die.

History repeats itself. Anyone who believes otherwise is a fool.

later
wayne

 

[RedWoods]

There are some wealthy people who genuinely deserve it: creative visionaries, inventors, talented musicians, artists, surgeons, etc. But most of the world's wealthy are probably just exploiting a position such that they can skim wealth from others (parasitically), rather than actual contribution to society. And it's a self-sustaining feedback caste system. They're wealthy, so therefore they're justified in redistributing it one-way. To move it the other way is somehow morally wrong.

Real wealth can't easily be lost. It's built up over the centuries, by previous generations who built bridges, skyscrapers, surveyed and carved out roads, mined gold, etc. When wealth is connected to production of tangible or durable things, it takes a long time to lose it. And we have production capacity today that vastly out-matches anything in the course of human history.

When wealth is largely a shell game, it can't really be lost either (since it never existed). That's the part that gets my goat -- the banksters and their politicians are apparently deliberately throwing people into debt as a means of serf-like oppression and control. Maybe to preserve the caste system.

How do I get deliberately thrown into debt? Debt is a personal choice? You don't have to spend more than you earn. You don't have to buy that new house,new car or go on trips you can't afford. No banker or politician ever grabbed anyone up and forced them into debt! Making excuses and creating reasons to blame everyone but the person responsible may make one feel good but is still self delusion.

Why should anyone with wealth have to make an actual contribution to society? Does everyone else? No one owes you or society anything. If you really want it get out there find a unfullfilled need work 80 hours a week +, invest every dime you have and make your own wealth.

Wealth can easiy be lost and it is just as hard hanging on to these days as it is making it. There are no free and easy rides! You either whine complain and blame others for your place in the world or you get out there and make your own fortune.

Red

 

[Raygunner]

Let's get real; we have the most advanced society in the world because we're smart, hard working, enterprising, and education.

end quote

It was not us and it is not us that built this use to be great nation.

Our forefathers, the last generation and the ones befoere them, built this nation.

Our generation, is living off the fat that they built up for us.

Our generation p i s i ssed off all they left us. We have college graduates that have to be taught by the few business that are still hiring Americans.

We are not the most advanced society in the world any more. We are (in most areas) not even in the top ten. We are not smart, we are crooks, fast buck artist, burn the candle at both ends, steal millions, billions, and then get govern to bail us out. Once the working poor bail the rich out, they go have a party and pay bonus s, with the money we gave them.

They are so powerful, that it is LAW that we can not even ask where they spent the money we bailed them out with.

Keep patting yourself on the back America, you are against the wall and sliding down into the gutter, just like any addict in the world.

In the end or forefathers were so right. We aer taken over from within. We vote ourselves wealth, short term everyone is giddy, Mid term reality sets in for some, and long term the poor go after the rich and a lot of innocent rich will die.

History repeats itself. Anyone who believes otherwise is a fool.

later
wayne

So what's your plan, Wayne? Respectfully asked...how do YOU survive?
(I know what mine is...)

 

[Flex]

Someone please help me to sort it out. So the USA, Europe, Japan, pretty much most developed nations are in debt up to the ears. My question is who the hell is the creditor? China and the Arabs?