[katielyn]

I was poking around tonight and I found this small cap pharma stock;Apricus Biosciences: APRI. It did nothing all day but the last hour shot up 60% from $.80 to $1.30.

Why I asked myself. From SEC fillings I learned a Sarissa Capital had purchased $11 million dollars of shares @ $.88. Having been burnt once I looked up Sarissa. The guy that runs it spent 6 years as senior director for Carl Ican before leaving to form Sarissa Capital in 2012.

The company has a couple of drugs in Phase 11 clinical trials. Sarissa Capital seems like a legitimate firm but I am just going to observe for now. I have alerts set at $1.10 and $1.50.

On Monday I was looking at some oil stocks and found PVA a stock that was trading at $8 last summer but was down to $.20cents. A little probing revealed that George Soros had acquired 6 million shares the Friday before. The company is producing but is carrying a ton of debt but I couldn't understand why Soros might be involved. PVA is listed on the NYSE so I thought possibly the company trying a last ditch effort to keep their listing.

Tuesday they halted trading and unlisted the stock and it is now selling at $.05cents. Anybody have any idea what Soros might be looking at doing.

And is Sarissa betting the clincial trials are going to be approved?

I love doing research and bargain hunting but right now it seems all I can do is watch. Anyone have any suggestions what to watch for. Or where I can dig deeper?

 

[CrypticCRICKET]

Avg trade volume is 149,000 shares. Problem with that is that it costs a market maker almost nothing to control the price of that stock. The large jump today an example.

There are very few opinions deciding the value of that stock which means that the stock moves when and whichever way the market maker wants it to move rather than which way the market wants it to.

 

[gdc]

It's a question of *when*, not *if* you'll get burned playing with penny stocks - even more so in pharma or mining.

You're not investing, you're gambling.

 

[katielyn]

Is that you Nostradamus?

Seriously PVA wasn't a penny stock 6 months ago. Their problem is taking on too much debt with the price of oil dropping but oil and assets are still in place that made them a $8 stock. I was wondering why the hell George Soros was involved. What his game is.

This is the per share numbers which seems pretty good to me.

Rev per share (TTM) 4.02
BV per share (MRQ) 7.62
Tangible BV per share (MRQ) 7.62

It's a question of *when*, not *if* you'll get burned playing with penny stocks - even more so in pharma or mining.

You're not investing, you're gambling.

 

[ksmedman]

Of course Sarissa expects approval, no one moves to trials knowing it won't. But... what is it? That's the kicker.
Lot's of crappy performing, but approved, drugs out there.

ETA: Looking at the Apricus site, they have an ED cream that's approved in Europe and Canada already. ED stuff can be huge (forgive the pun), but what does this do that differentiates? Also, what's the performance in Europe and Canada?

Their other two drugs look 'meh.' Maybe one is a hit, hard to see it though. Hypogonadism and Raynaud's Syndrome. Not exactly common issues.

A lot of these small pharma players are a longer hold proposition. Mainly hinging on the chances that someone much bigger buys them. And that hinges on whether they have a drug or two worth developing at that level.
My gut says APRI has some upside, but it could be a while. The FDA is so screwed up right now, and there is so much pressure on pharma from both the retail costing and regulation sides, that something that should take 6-8 months, could take a year or two.
With everything, I'd keep an eye towards how the next election might impact... But now we're into crystal ball land.

YMMV, of course.

 

[gdc]

Seriously PVA wasn't a penny stock 6 months ago. Their problem is taking on too much debt with the price of oil dropping but oil and assets are still in place that made them a $8 stock. I was wondering why the hell George Soros was involved. What his game is.

This is the per share numbers which seems pretty good to me.

Rev per share (TTM) 4.02
BV per share (MRQ) 7.62
Tangible BV per share (MRQ) 7.62

This forum is hilarious. George Soros has nothing to do with this.

That rev per share will be < $0.50 this time next year for the TTM, and they won't be able to service their debt. I'd also be very, very wary of any reported Book Value. It is almost certainly not marked to market.

Dead men walking.

 

[katielyn]

ksmedman I appreciate

your reply. I am just going to keep an eye on and see what it does. I don't believe this stock and company is a sham but it still may not go anywhere buy someone smarter than I am is betting $11 million that it will.

Of course Sarissa expects approval, no one moves to trials knowing it won't. But... what is it? That's the kicker.
Lot's of crappy performing, but approved, drugs out there.

ETA: Looking at the Apricus site, they have an ED cream that's approved in Europe and Canada already. ED stuff can be huge (forgive the pun), but what does this do that differentiates? Also, what's the performance in Europe and Canada?

Their other two drugs look 'meh.' Maybe one is a hit, hard to see it though. Hypogonadism and Raynaud's Syndrome. Not exactly common issues.

A lot of these small pharma players are a longer hold proposition. Mainly hinging on the chances that someone much bigger buys them. And that hinges on whether they have a drug or two worth developing at that level.
My gut says APRI has some upside, but it could be a while. The FDA is so screwed up right now, and there is so much pressure on pharma from both the retail costing and regulation sides, that something that should take 6-8 months, could take a year or two.
With everything, I'd keep an eye towards how the next election might impact... But now we're into crystal ball land.

YMMV, of course.

 

[katielyn]

It is possible

that there are two George and Robert Soros in investments. But that is the names listed on SEC fillings. Assuming there is only one George and Robert combo what do they want with an essentially bankrupt oil company?

That's what I wondered.

This forum is hilarious. George Soros has nothing to do with this.

That rev per share will be < $0.50 this time next year for the TTM, and they won't be able to service their debt. I'd also be very, very wary of any reported Book Value. It is almost certainly not marked to market.

Dead men walking.