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I just watched a video where a financial expert is predicting a great depression if this virus lasts 18 months in 2020. How many think that's a possibility?
 

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Lets see the vid, then can discuss better. But I think we are already in a depression.

A depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or which leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent. in a given year.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

If the virus does not go away and we have no cure, then sounds about right.

What kind of country will you have if the only work you can do is at home. This is not like the old days where most people made a life on their farm, were somewhat self-sufficient, didn't have to pay rent and taxes. In 2020, you either come up with the $$ each month or you get dumped on the concrete.
 

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D. Gibbons is a bad man
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I just watched a video where a financial expert is predicting a great depression if this virus lasts 18 months in 2020. How many think that's a possibility?
18 months seems rather precise! Who is this expert, post the link so that we may savage his credentials and overall reputation.
 

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With so many businesses going under, people out of work, food/meat shortage, gas $ in negative, bankruptcies are expecting to rise, I can't help being concerned about our economy and I'm wondering how someone on a fixed income can prepare for the worse. Also, what would the worse look like? Would we still have electricity?

Maybe I've been reading too much and need to chill.
 

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Bug-In Prepper
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That's perfectly in line with my own expectations.

My guess as a layperson is that vaccines will become widely available sometime around mid-2021, and until then economic activity will be severely curtailed in most places.

The economy is suffering dramatically already, and it's early yet.
 

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Probably will be a lot of economic difficulty around the world for sure. Real problem will be for those who were already on the bottom of the economic spectrum. For everyone else it becomes a matter of what all those people can/will do … and what various nations that my fail can/will do … it will be precarious for some time is my guess, for everyone.

A vaccine is a possibility, but there may never be one as well …
 

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A world wide depression is only a few months away if we don't lift the stay at home orders. The destruction of the economy will starve the medical system of the funds it needs leading to more deaths the Chinese virus could ever kill.

In much of the US outside of hot spots in big cities hospitals are all ready near bankruptcy do to the lack of patients. Others are also dyeing because they can't receive normal medical care.
 

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"TURGID FLUX"
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I think it is possible.

The US economy runs on an unsustainable business model. Now planes aren't flying, people aren't working, can't , shouldnt work, in most cases. Businesses are not healthy enough to ride out a 3 month dry spell. What worries me most are the pension funds and social security that are basically running a ponzi scheme. Then we have the big insurers that are going to have to write checks for business interruption.

The airlines are screwed, Boeing screwed themselves over the 737 Max and now they will lose more orders and be taking planes back.

Nobody wants to put money away for a rainy day. These big airlines bought their stock back. And now have worthless paper. Even Warren Buffet is nervous.

This could have been handled better on the onset. It is clear that insiders saw this coming and raided the stock market.

The only fix for this fiction economy is more fiction.

Saw an old Wendy's ad today. Where's the Beef? Indeed, where is it?

Sent from my SM-T350 using Tapatalk
 

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With so many businesses going under, people out of work, food/meat shortage, gas $ in negative, bankruptcies are expecting to rise, I can't help being concerned about our economy and I'm wondering how someone on a fixed income can prepare for the worse. Also, what would the worse look like? Would we still have electricity?

Maybe I've been reading too much and need to chill.
The same way you have an orchard today:

Go back in time and start.


A little at a time. One extra jar of spaghetti sauce every time you shop.
One or a few fruit trees or berry Bush a year.

This year I'm transplanting several volunteer peach trees (stone fruits grow 90% true to type) and BlackBerry canes as well as strawberries.

"WOrst" would of course exclude power, but IMHO that's not very likely.

AS to your OP:
If course 18 months would bring about. a(very bad) depression.
OTOH: If this isn't it.... I expect an orgy of spending from "people tired of being cooped up" sure, just like 2008 etc all some will suffer and others will profit
We should know by June if there's gonna be a surge following relaxed restrictions.

Then, just "top off" in case fall is bad... And then KEEP DOING from them on. One can or item at a time.
First in, first out.
 

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"TURGID FLUX"
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That's perfectly in line with my own expectations.

My guess as a layperson is that vaccines will become widely available sometime around mid-2021, and until then economic activity will be severely curtailed in most places.

The economy is suffering dramatically already, and it's early yet.
If this virus is mutating, there is no vaccine. Flu vaccines are hit and miss. Usually a miss. This thing is going to have to burn itself out. Like a campfire. You must spread the coals apart, not add new tinder (victims).

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"TURGID FLUX"
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I am not jumping out any windows. I need a new truck. I will be able to get more truck than I ever believed with the money I saved. Maybe no gasoline, but it will be shiny!

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If the states' efforts to get businesses opened up doesn't result in a huge spike in death rates, I doubt that a real economic collapse will happen. The shutdowns that have resulted in a huge desperate labor pool will help businesses to get rid of old, young, higher paid, and less productive employees and replace them with people who will work cheap. Auto and aircraft manufacturers, and most large employers, are almost certain to cull thousands and shut down facilities in favor of off-shoring to countries that have cheaper labor and less onerous regulations.
There'll be little political push back as long as businesses make a half effort to put some people back on the payroll. Medical corporations have been trying to shut down less profitable hospitals for years, and this gives them an excuse to do it. Same with most large employers in the US. Now Trump can blame the high unemployment rate on the virus, and the folks in the corporate boardrooms and on Wall Street can do some serious cost cutting. Lots of working class people will be screwed, but people with the wherewithal to take advantage of a catastrophe can reap some serious rewards. For a start, merger mania will allow the airlines to dump thousands of employees and their retirement plans.
 

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I can definitively say that the virus will not last 18 months in 2020 (think about it). That said, if the economy re-opens quickly and if the predicted treatments and vaccines arrive by the end of this year, I believe the steep recession will be over by the end of 2021.

The Great Depression was really a series of three depressions. The G. D. was caused mostly by government bungling such as contracting the money supply to strengthen the dollar and the imposition of tariffs. Also, until FDR enacted the New Deal about four years after the start, there was no fiscal stimulus. An additional problem is that the U.S. didn't have "automatic stabilizers" such as unemployment insurance at the time.

Hopefully, the massive injection of monetary and fiscal stimulus will result in the current economic downturn being a bad recession and not another depression.
 

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Live Secret, Live Happy
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A great depression is possible, perhaps likely considering the damage caused by the world wide response to CV-19.
Considering the debt load of the US and other countries, any price contraction could trigger a brutal death spiral.
 
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