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Old 12-20-2012, 12:22 PM
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With the solstice approaching, I have heard quite a few jokes from people about the Mayan calendar/end of the world. It seems like a lot of people who find out I prepare for disaster assume that I believe the world is going to end imminently. I try to explain disaster preparedness to them. This is the way I have come up with.

I have a spectrum of possibilities in my mind. On one end are disasters that we know will happen such as hurricaines, tornados, earthquakes, winter storms, wild fires, localized violence/terrorist attack/riots/crime, disease outbreak (the probability of these events varies greatly with where you live)--these are things that will happen and we have a good idea of where they happen based on history--these events are possible and probable soon. Everyone should have basic emergency supplies and a plan for these events.

Then there are things that we know will happen but we don't know when. History shows they do occur but rarely enough that the likely hood of it happening in an individual's lifetime is small--possible and probable sometime. These are things like solar flares, meltdown at a nuclear plant, yellowstone erupting, large asteroid strike, world wide disease pandemic, world war, civil war/societal collapse (depending on where you live this could very well be in the first category). The kicker on these things is that they will happen--we just can't predict them very well and they are rare. Preparing for these events is a much greater undertaking. And, even if you prepare as well as you possibly can, if you live where the asteroid hits or near yellowstone when it erupts, etc., you're dead.

My last catergory of disaster are things I put in the realm of fantasy. These are things like a zombie apocalypse or alien invasion. These things could be labeled possible but not probable--some more than others. For example, I think hostile contact with an alien lifeform is more probable than a zombie outbreak as zombies violate everything we know about how life operates. However, examining these scenarios and how people react to them in book and film is fun and informative.

There are other disasters which perhaps don't fit a category. All the ones I can think of are manmade events like nuclear war, a terrorist nuclear/bio/chem attack, an EMP attack. These things are all possible. The probability depends entirely on the capabilities of those who would like to see them happen. Especially the terrorist attacks because there are people in the world today who would love to carry out one of these attacks. All they lack are the materials. Prevention depends on proactive action by military, diplomatic, law enforcement and intelligence agencies. The difficult part of these disasters is that no matter how prepared you are, they could kill you in seconds if you are in the wrong place at the wrong time (or days if you get a dose of radiation or anthrax).

It's a personal decision where you place each possible disaster in this spectrum. Likewise, it's a personal decision as to how far across the spectrum each person prepares. I try to explain to people that at least everyone should be prepared for the disasters in category one. Having a hurricaine kit in Florida is wise. Having a warm sleeping bag, warm winter clothes and boots in Montana is wise. Having sturdy locks, an alarm, dog, etc in a high crime area is wise. Even the most skeptical will agree with me on this.
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Old 12-20-2012, 04:42 PM
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All I can say is it's been good knowing you people. The world ends tomorrow.

Seriously, though, the spectrum approach is sensible. We (the US) has gone through a relatively peaceful period since the great influenza epidemic. By relative I mean the TSHTF's were only local or regional (race riots, Vietnam protests, L.A. Riots, Katrina, Three Mile Island, 9/11, etc.) and the wars were fought abroad. But history doesn't always offer a ~75 year stretch without civil war, war on the homefront, a big epidemic, great depression, etc. Over the past few centuries, quite a number of generations have seen more than their fair share and many didn't make it.

Another way to approach this topic is maybe something like micro-disasters that you are guaranteed will happen -- death and taxes, for instance. The need to make money, the constant tension today between liberty vs. security, preserving your wealth, not having enough time to do squat. These things are real drains, so alot of "survival" type advice is basically ongoing, daily and practical (Mother Earth News, household economics, self-sufficiency, etc.). I'd put this category front-and-center.
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Old 12-21-2012, 12:25 AM
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Actually don't drop the zombie scenario yet. If someone were to create a fast acting version of rabies, it would be exactly like what happened in 28 days.
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Old 12-21-2012, 01:26 AM
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Don't forget about Zombie Ants. Can this (or something similar) happen to humans?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/20...ie-ants-amazon
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Old 12-21-2012, 08:24 AM
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Originally Posted by CryHavoc View Post
Don't forget about Zombie Ants. Can this (or something similar) happen to humans?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/20...ie-ants-amazon
That was awesome! and kinda scary... I actually just posted a thread on "zombifiers" looking for stuff just like this. Thanks for the post!
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Old 12-21-2012, 09:00 AM
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That's where I'm at it's not A single issue while a possibly it's a confluence of issues the point is to be able to care for your family. I think some people get too hung up on specific events and while these are good things in terms of opening eyes and bring people to prepping I think it leave some less rounded in their prepping .

What will become of many 2012'ers now? How many will keep prepping and how many bail and move on.
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Old 12-21-2012, 09:40 AM
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The spectrum idea is a good one.

Your personal spectrum will vary from mine.

I'm trying to prep for my "most likely" events first, which gives me a start on my "less likely" events.

Oh, yes, there are some who say that prepping for specific events is the wrong way, and we should focus on prepping for each of the basic needs. But it does give a focus, and a sense of urgency needed to complete the task.
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Old 12-21-2012, 11:30 AM
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People focus on high damage scenarios, regardless of their probability.

Yet fail to mitigate against much more probable events.

Hint: not a good idea to live within a few miles of a train track.
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Old 12-21-2012, 12:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rugster View Post
What will become of many 2012'ers now? How many will keep prepping and how many bail and move on.
Hopefully, they will refocus on the more likely, albeit less "Hollywood" scenarios.
But if nothing else, they will forget about their stashes and live their lives until a real disaster hits, and they'll be glad they had the gear that they did.
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Old 12-22-2012, 10:11 PM
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The big problem is that it is absolutely impossible to estimate (even roughly) probability of supposedly unlikely events. Lets look at a general EMP. In order for it to happen 2 things have to take place: 1. Some one has to calculate that it is in his interests to do so and 2. The gov has to calculate that it is in ITS interests to allow this to happen. We have ZERO understanding of factors involved. Exactly the same line of reasoning takes place about, say, Yellowstone explosion and many other events.
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Old 12-23-2012, 08:03 AM
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The largest disaster already happened back on November 6th.

It would suck if the zombie attack looked like those in 28 Days. Those guys were fast and I was prepping for the slow ones.
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Old 12-23-2012, 01:13 PM
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The events I plan for are local events. Storms, civil unrest, the possibility of contagion. I do not plan for a nuclear war, because of my location.

Zombie outbreak, well that falls into civil unrest, contagion.
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Old 12-23-2012, 02:11 PM
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You forgot the most likely disaster of them all.....the disaster in the White House, and the impending economic collapse, with the attendant rioting hordes, (call them zombies if you wish) Prepare for this and you should be ready for the most of the others as well.
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:26 PM
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The probability of a natural disaster occurring tends to decay exponentially with the severity. Events range from high probability low consequence to low probability high consequence. However, the total risk from the low probability events may exceed the total risk from the high probability events. Note that this can lead to a significant underestimate of risks from disasters when compiling statistics over recent decades.

Take an asteroid impact. The earth is 100 times more likely to be hit by a 1km asteroid than a 10km asteroid. But the 10km asteroid has 1000 times as much mass and likely damage and body count is roughly proportional. So, in this case, the low probability high consequence events actually dominate the risk.

Tornados by F-scale (1970-2002):
F0 39%
F1 36%
F2 19%
F3 5%
F4 1%
F5 0%
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications...y/tor30yrs.pdf

But 2/3 of the fatalities are from F4 or F5 tornadoes, 29% by F2-F3, and 4% by F0-F1.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/giles/giles40.1.html

Illinois tornadoes (1950-2010?):
Code:
Scale   Number  Fatalities Fatalities/event Injuries Injuries/event
EF0      1004       2        0.002                 26         0.026
EF1      665        13       0.018                 232        0.349
EF2      397        15       0.038                 798        2.01
EF3      135        43      0.319                  805        5.96
EF4      40         100     2.5                     1906      47.65
EF5      3           30      10                      356       118.67
Number of injuries is typically 20 times the number of fatalities.
http://www.isws.illinois.edu/atmos/s...do/ilplots.htm

Some decades have had low numbers of F0/F1 tornado reports:
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brook...sdecavgtor.gif
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brook.../toulclim.html
This seems to reflect the disorganized nature of reporting before 1973; tornadoes before then have been given a fujita rating retroactively.

Average annual deaths from extreme weather events (1993-2006):
Excess Cold 603 46%
Excess Heat 361 28%
Hurricanes 133 10%
Floods 84 7%
Lightning 66 5%
Tornadoes 56 4%

Quote:
Together they were responsible for an average of 1,301 deaths each year. To put these numbers in context, they constitute only 0.05% of the 2,367,000 deaths that occurred each year in the U.S., averaged over 1993-2006.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/2...-stormy-times/

Wordwide mass fatality incidents: number of deaths by event type (2000-2009):
Earthquake: 48%
Storm 22%
Extreme temperature 12%
Flood 7%
Other 1%
http://www.who.int/hac/events/drm_fa...fatalities.pdf

US Weather fatalities (30 year annual average 1982-2011):
Flood: 83
Lightning 54
Tornado: 74 (spike to 533 in 2011)
Hurricane: 47
Heat: 119 (10 year average)
Cold: 27 (10 year average)
Winter: 23 (10 year average)
Wind: 45 (10 year average)
Rip Currents 46 (10 year average)

Plot of flood/Tornado/Hurricane/earthquake disaster probabilities vs severity.
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/natural-disa...ures/fig8.html
Note that those are cumulative numbers.

The death toll for low probability high consequence events may increase not only due to the increased severity but also their ability to overwhelm emergency services.

Deaths from disasters have declined dramatically over the last century, even though the intensity of the disasters has not declined and the economic impact of billion dollar scale disasters has increased substantially over the last couple decades.
As an example, the death rate from tornados has declined 10 fold over the last century:
http://www.patricktmarsh.com/wp-cont...er_million.png
http://www.patricktmarsh.com/2012/04...rning-process/

Historically, famine and disease often killed more than the disaster itself. Deaths from many disasters are low in the last century in the US compared to their historical impacts because of improvements in building codes, disease prevention, medical care, food aid, emergency housing, early warning, communications, transportation, etc. Much of that is probably due directly or indirectly to government activity as well as other forms of interdependence (aid organizations, economy, etc.). Those here who criticize those who rely on the government or dismiss the government as totally ineffective might do well to take note. While self reliance is good, when people were limited to just self reliance, they were much more likely to die from disasters. In the event of a collapse of government/economy/infrastructure, subsequent disasters are likely to be far more deadly.

Last edited by technoprepper; 12-23-2012 at 05:27 PM.. Reason: formatting
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Old 12-23-2012, 05:50 PM
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Thank you for interesting statistics. Of course the meaning of such statistics is something else. For example, the death toll is not necessarily the most useful measure: while only a handful of people may die, but the economic impact may result in many more deaths (from malnutrition and/or declining standards of health care). If such consequences are not arrested the whole people may eventually die out. And disasters after collapse will not be very deadly, because the number of survivors would be small and because the survivors would not tempt the fate so much, IMO.
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Old 12-23-2012, 06:45 PM
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Originally Posted by GG42 View Post
The big problem is that it is absolutely impossible to estimate (even roughly) probability of supposedly unlikely events. Lets look at a general EMP. In order for it to happen 2 things have to take place: 1. Some one has to calculate that it is in his interests to do so and 2. The gov has to calculate that it is in ITS interests to allow this to happen. We have ZERO understanding of factors involved. Exactly the same line of reasoning takes place about, say, Yellowstone explosion and many other events.
For natural events we have a reasonable idea what the probabilties are, we just don't know exactly when and where they will manifest themselves. Fact is that many low probability events are not isolated but rather belong to a larger class of events where we know the probability distribution of events based on their size. While manmade WMD disasters such as terrorist EMP strikes are harder to predict, we can predict natural disasters. Even for terrorism, we know to expect between 3,000-13,000 deaths per year worldwide from non-nuclear terrorism. http://www.economist.com/blogs/daily...rrorism-deaths
So we can predict the annual toll worldwide to within +/- a factor of 2. The US toll is more sporadic and dominated by a few events.

For "Solar EMP" we actually know a lot about the probability of coronal mass ejections and one published aper put the probability at about 12% over the next 10 years. We also know something about the probability of volcano and supervolcano eruptions over the long term. Unfortunately, we are now dealing with very low probability very high consequence events that occur over geologic time scales and the randomness in the timing doesn't tell us much about whether or not it will actually occur in our lifetime. However, initial concerns about yellowstone (among volcanologists not the lunatic fringe) have subsided somewhat now that they have had a chance to measure the crust thickness. One source puts the probability of a supervolcano eruption during the next century at 1 in 500.
http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpre...-this-century/
If we assume then that once every 50,000 years there will be an event that kills 6 billion people, then that would be 120,000 average deaths per year for comparison with other risks. Volcanic erruptions have killed around 200,000 people over the last 200 years, worldwide, or around 1000 per year average. While the supervolcano estimate might be a bit pessimistic (Toba may have only killed 60% of the population and many supervolcanos included in the 1/500/century estimate may be less severe) , it suggests that volcanic risk is often underestimated since it is often averaged over timescales that are short compared to human history, let alone geologic history and thus only captures events on the high probability low consequence end. A more reasonable estimate would integrate over the probability distribution. Here is one possible source for the probability distribution: http://www.google.com/imgres?hl=en&c...w=1102&bih=592
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...77027308002655
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Old 12-23-2012, 07:08 PM
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Give you an example of how well we understand even random events: initial estimate for the Shuttle mishap was 1 in 80,000. After Challenger estimate was revised to 1 in 81. Thousand times! Physicist Feinman visited NASA and concluded that both estimates are wrong and no one at NASA understands probability. On top of this the chances of natural disasters are increasing and the number of fatalities increase due to growing population. Just in tsunami of 2004 there were nearly a quarter million deaths. Now what makes you think these events are even random? There was some (unconfirmed) info that 2004 tsunami was preceded by a gravitational wave from space, for example. The Yellowstone eruption may be once in 500 years naturally, but some one can put a nuke into it or use some other (yet unpublished) technology. Tne not-so-smart bombers do not kill that many people but someone can surely come up with more efficient ways to kill many people and just one such event can kill millions. And on and on.
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Old 12-24-2012, 12:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GG42 View Post
Thank you for interesting statistics. Of course the meaning of such statistics is something else. For example, the death toll is not necessarily the most useful measure: while only a handful of people may die, but the economic impact may result in many more deaths (from malnutrition and/or declining standards of health care). If such consequences are not arrested the whole people may eventually die out. And disasters after collapse will not be very deadly, because the number of survivors would be small and because the survivors would not tempt the fate so much, IMO.
As far as the last sentence is concerned, if only 10% of the population remained you might expect 10% as many casualties; i.e. lower absolute numbers but similar death rates - from the direct impact of the storm. But it would probably be worse because those remaining would probably be hanging on by a thread and any further disturbance could be catastrophic. So even in the short term death rates might not only rise to 19th century levels but exceed them. And aid would be non-existent. So, yes, a return to death by famine and disease far exceeding the direct impact. As far as the survivors not tempting fate - subsistence living is tempting fate. And bugging out may not be an option with damaged roads, no fuel, no place to stay, etc. And attempts may be made tosave property placing people at isk. At least in the 19th century there was some sort of stable economy and some stability in each persons means of subsistence because people had a track record of living that way. There might be a surplus of some non-consumable property from the casualties of the first disaster but on the other hand there could be little disasters from abandoned industry. What currently shows up as economic cost of a hurricane could then be houses, infrastructure, vehicles, crops, etc. destroyed and not replaced resulting in subsequent deaths. So, yes, today's damage numbers may be more indicative of the effects of a disaster in some ways than the death toll.

Any collapse inducing disaster is likely to spin off a number of secondary disasters which amplify its impact and when these are followed by normally occurring disasters these may kick people while they are down.

The statistics I gave were mostly to illustrate the relative probabilities of disasters of different magnitude and mostly in a precollapse world. For that, death toll may be a fairly good indicator except where there is advance warning and differences in evacuation.
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Old 12-24-2012, 12:30 AM
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I grew up when only the well off were preppers. They built bomb shelters. For most people life was a form of survival. A years supply of food was always dried, caned, cured, or in the home freezer locker. The freezer would not count in our mind frame but then surviving did not necessarily mean being without electricity. Then being without money to buy food was a concern. The idea that people would buy packaged survival food supplies would earned you the title of fool. I still do not see the need for it. But some do and it's your money.

Funny thing the rich never made secondary use of the bomb shelters. Everything put there was left to ruin.
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Old 12-24-2012, 03:24 AM
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I do not prepare for a specific event but rather for the social impact of an event. (Yes, there are many preppers that prep with specific scenarios in mind, but I'm nowhere near there yet).

I think that most preppers consciously/unconsciously realise that the biggest threat to us is the disintegration of the “social order/structure” after TSHTF and we prepare for that. (We store food because we may not be able to shop, we have guns (or other means) to ensure the safety of our families and to protect our preps, we learn new skills in the event that our current jobs disappear).

For me, this is the common denominator in most SHTF scenarios. The scale of the SHTF event will determine the level of social disintegration and this disintegration will have the most impact on our lives.

I should add that my view is somewhat biased - we live in a geologically stable country (no earthquakes, volcanoes), the closest nuclear reactor is about a 1000 miles away (from where I live), we have very few severe weather events (heavy rainstorms with some localised flooding, a F1/F2 tornado about once every 10-12 years). We do of course have our unique challenges – we already see political/economic unrest on an almost daily basis.
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