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Old 02-24-2011, 11:54 PM
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Default U.S. crop boom not enough to rebuild thin supplies



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Huge U.S. corn and soybean plantings this spring will likely fail to refill razor-thin stocks enough to quell the surge in grain prices, the U.S. Agriculture Department said on Thursday. In updated forecasts for the world's biggest crop exporter, the USDA warned that it could take several years to restore inventories to comfortable levels.




http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110224/bs_nm/us_usda_forum
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Old 02-25-2011, 01:47 AM
lanahi lanahi is offline
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If they'd quit using corn for fuel, it might help.
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Old 02-25-2011, 01:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lanahi View Post
If they'd quit using corn for fuel, it might help.
True, but I have a work mate who runs his Toyota truck on vegetable oil and it doesn't cost him a penny.
He collects it from restaraunts for free, they normally have to pay to have it collected, and all he does is filter it and bingo...... free fuel.

I would love to do that.

On topic though, I know that various government agencies are predicting a famine on a world scale. Food is grown, enough food to feed the world but it is not grown in the right places so it doesn't get where it should.
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Old 02-25-2011, 02:02 AM
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True, but I have a work mate who runs his Toyota truck on vegetable oil and it doesn't cost him a penny.
He collects it from restaraunts for free, they normally have to pay to have it collected, and all he does is filter it and bingo...... free fuel.
I hate those vehicles! Every time one goes by I get an urge for French fries.
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Old 02-25-2011, 02:14 AM
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I hate those vehicles! Every time one goes by I get an urge for French fries.
Well I have followed him and I swear to God that the smell depends on where he got the oil from, Chinese, Indian, Fast food and Kebab shops!
No good when you are on a diet.
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Old 02-25-2011, 02:23 AM
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As long as speculators have control of the commodities markets the prices will continue to climb even if harvests continue to produce record levels each year.
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Old 02-25-2011, 03:36 AM
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Record plantings mean squat!!!!

A record harvest is what is needed and that is 6 months away!

A lot can happen in 6 months!
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Old 02-25-2011, 05:41 AM
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While the last link shows a possibility of some alleviation of the concern, many don't even know the concern exist to begin with.

Lost on the back pages of news articles is the chinese wheat crop threat.
If the predictions for damage manifest, there will be a world wide shortage and huge price hikes. It will make the trouble in the middle east look like a kindergarden scrap.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/w...ow/7490455.cms
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/14/wo...a/14china.html
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...791632626.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...op-growth.html
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Old 02-25-2011, 06:23 AM
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Originally Posted by rugster View Post
Huge U.S. corn and soybean plantings this spring will likely fail to refill razor-thin stocks enough to quell the surge in grain prices, the U.S. Agriculture Department said on Thursday. In updated forecasts for the world's biggest crop exporter, the USDA warned that it could take several years to restore inventories to comfortable levels.
Plantings arnt going to help at all, just ask the Aussie farmers who have been either flooded or hit by cyclones lol...

You need a huge harvest to boost inventories
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Old 02-25-2011, 06:24 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightwind View Post
Record plantings mean squat!!!!

A record harvest is what is needed and that is 6 months away!

A lot can happen in 6 months!
damn, beat me to it lol
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Old 02-25-2011, 07:28 AM
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Just imagine if we were to become the big grain ahole manipulators of the world this year. Instead of people holding us hostage for oil, we hold them hostage for food. We say we are only going to export 25% and keep the rest for ourselves as we enjoy really low food prices to help our economy.

What would happen then?
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Old 02-25-2011, 07:33 AM
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Great, just great, more bad news.

The gas is going to cost too much to drive to the grocery store and buy the expensive food.
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Old 02-25-2011, 07:38 AM
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The article makes it sound like the farmers just found alot of acreage they had never seen or used before.

What a load of garbage.

Farmers generally plant on planned rotation, the amount of farmland is fixed, and farmers make more harvesting a crop than not.

What happens when the Chinese offer more for our grain than we can? Do we starve as the grain goes to the high bidder? They certainly have a large enough stockpile of our dollars.
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Old 02-25-2011, 08:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by carlnpa View Post
The article makes it sound like the farmers just found alot of acreage they had never seen or used before.

What a load of garbage.

Farmers generally plant on planned rotation, the amount of farmland is fixed, and farmers make more harvesting a crop than not.

What happens when the Chinese offer more for our grain than we can? Do we starve as the grain goes to the high bidder? They certainly have a large enough stockpile of our dollars.
Easy....just like "opec", we just reduce the available output.
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Old 02-25-2011, 08:48 AM
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I'm curious. Exactly what would happen should the US decide to NOT donate wheat to starving countries overseas. What would happen if we kept ALL our wheat to replentish our inventories? Perhaps tell the OPEC countries that we will consider trading wheat for oil, though I realize that can't/won't happen.
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Old 02-25-2011, 10:31 AM
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There's allot of rhetoric out there about food lets try to break some points up here and discuss them.


-Yes, speculation in the markets is driving the price up ultimately supply/demand & carry over stock is driving price. I don't think it's fair to have this argument without acknowledging that in the past speculation made food cheap and helped drive farming innovations. wheat is not only cheaper today per bushel than 500 years ago it's much more plentiful ! IMO...The breaking point isn't speculation and certainly speculation has made food production very successful enough so for the next point.


-Enough food to feed the world....maybe? Food aid hasn't helped the poor hungry nations feed themselves it's simply created more people dependent on food aid. Additionally, there's a population explosion happening in many of these poor countries that can't feed themselves many double, triple some even quadruple the fertility rates of developed countries.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertility_rate


-By 2030, world population is expected to hit 8.3 billion, standard of living is expected to push food consumption demand by 50 percent

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24942035/



-Among the many problems food production face one that isn't being talked much openly. The top grain producing countries China, India, USA & Russia right now,,.. Today! are farming at an unsustainable level to meet demand. Most aquifers used for irrigation in these countries are being used at an irreplaceable rate. In the USA the Ogallala aquifer( fossil aquifer) accounts for 27 percent of the irrigated land in the United States.

"For fossil aquifers—such as the vast U.S. , the deep aquifer under the North China Plain, or the Saudi aquifer—depletion brings pumping to an end. Farmers who lose their irrigation water have the option of returning to lower-yield dryland farming if rainfall permits. In more arid regions, however, such as in the southwestern United States or the Middle East, the loss of irrigation water means the end of agriculture."


http://www.eoearth.org/article/Aquifer_depletion
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Old 02-25-2011, 10:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 44 Flattop View Post
I'm curious. Exactly what would happen should the US decide to NOT donate wheat to starving countries overseas. What would happen if we kept ALL our wheat to replentish our inventories? Perhaps tell the OPEC countries that we will consider trading wheat for oil, though I realize that can't/won't happen.

These countries would....

-starve,

-prices may drop... pulling wheat out of the supply is an aid programs not only to starving people but insulate prices up and down generally for farmers benefit.

-Prices could skyrocket as other countries buy what wheat is available internationally or to donate to poor countries.


it's a complex mix of supply, demand and carry over stock rolled into one and called speculation
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Old 02-25-2011, 10:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightwind View Post
Record plantings mean squat!!!!

A record harvest is what is needed and that is 6 months away!

A lot can happen in 6 months!

I agree, what is indicated in the article is a record harvest won't fix supply and demand deficit
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Old 02-25-2011, 12:05 PM
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time to hit up the grain elevators again is all i am reading here. hopefully prices havent gone up too much there. yet...
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Old 02-25-2011, 12:15 PM
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I'm doubling the size of my garden,food prices may trigger a global SHTF event.Talked to our co-op they can't keep garden type seeds in stock,last year set a record for home gardening,this year will probably break that record!
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