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Old 05-15-2020, 02:15 PM
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...so, you're saying we need a war.

When did the warmongering stop...
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Old 05-15-2020, 06:50 PM
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Agreed
I don't think we will have a vaccine in time to do anything. I think herd immunity will develop before a viable vaccine is developed and deployed. I have seen a report where 43% of a population have tested positive for antibodies and the spread has stopped. That tells me the number of people who are susceptible to this virus is substantially lower than 100%. Probably more like 50-60% are susceptible. They probably just have natural resistance or have had a coronavirus that was close enough to this one that they had built up some level of immunity that isn't detected in the antibody tests. A third option is the tests were wrong.
I do agree that in this case previous infection will play a big roll because mutation is less like the flu and more like SARS.

I do not think we know the numbers. I would not be surprised to find I have antibodies. I do not think we have enough people tested to know.

I have a doctor's appointment coming up next month. I think I will ask to be tested.
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Old 05-15-2020, 07:04 PM
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The smart money is on a long slow recovery unless Washington makes some changes.


Right now they're using the playbook from the Hoover administration.


We all know how that went.
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Old 05-20-2020, 03:29 AM
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If Work From Home (WFH) becomes the new normal for a significant swath of American business, the commercial real estate market is going to crater (or at least be severely stressed) which will in turn disturb credit markets and banks. I'm sure the Fed will step in, but it's just one consideration of dominoes that could wobble and/or fall as the economy finds it's new normal.
Something else to consider, is if the commercial markets get stressed enough those companies that don't really like the idea of telework. but are doing it for various reasons, might find that moving into a larger than necessary location to help prevent this situation again. The cube farm would go away and negative ventilation could easily be added to most enclosed office spaces. This would work to help stabilize those markets.
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Old 05-20-2020, 12:39 PM
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Something else to consider, is if the commercial markets get stressed enough those companies that don't really like the idea of telework. but are doing it for various reasons, might find that moving into a larger than necessary location to help prevent this situation again. The cube farm would go away and negative ventilation could easily be added to most enclosed office spaces. This would work to help stabilize those markets.
A couple of ideas floating about are campus type layouts at the edge of cities and yes a return to the single occupant cubicle as opposed to the bank or pod layouts of recent times.
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Old 05-20-2020, 02:54 PM
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The market is coming back just fine but I am concerned longterm.
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Old 05-20-2020, 03:06 PM
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The market is coming back just fine ....
Fine, yes, for anyone who purchased a 10 lot of S&P Mini contracts at the March low of 2174 and sold them today at the closing price of 2968, they would have made a profit of $397,000.
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Old 05-20-2020, 03:18 PM
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The market is coming back just fine but I am concerned longterm.

The market has not been an indicator of economic health for a long time... simply comparing the nominal value of the DOW to the u-6 rate (the broadest, and more accurate measure of unemployment) should make that abundantly clear...

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Old 05-20-2020, 06:01 PM
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Fine, yes, for anyone who purchased a 10 lot of S&P Mini contracts at the March low of 2174 and sold them today at the closing price of 2968, they would have made a profit of $397,000.
A wise man taught me if you worry about how much money someone else is making you will never make any of your own.
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Old 05-20-2020, 06:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Steverino View Post
The market has not been an indicator of economic health for a long time... simply comparing the nominal value of the DOW to the u-6 rate (the broadest, and more accurate measure of unemployment) should make that abundantly clear...

There are a lot of things wrong with the economy.

I focus on what I can do for me and mine. I was taught fix what is wrong with yourself and do not worry about what you cannot fix.
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Old 05-20-2020, 06:30 PM
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There are a lot of things wrong with the economy.

I focus on what I can do for me and mine. I was taught fix what is wrong with yourself and do not worry about what you cannot fix.
Until they come for your pension, and/or your home. Where do you think they’re going to tap into to keep up the charade? Provide the masses with bread and circuses? The people that still have something they can rob. WITH violence if necessary. This IS what Bitcoin and PM’s are all about. Hiding value from a tyrannical government.
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Old 05-20-2020, 07:00 PM
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Originally Posted by PalmettoTree View Post
A wise man taught me if you worry about how much money someone else is making you will never make any of your own.
That's not what someone else is making.
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Old 05-20-2020, 07:14 PM
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Originally Posted by PalmettoTree View Post
There are a lot of things wrong with the economy.

I focus on what I can do for me and mine. I was taught fix what is wrong with yourself and do not worry about what you cannot fix.
That's not what I was disagreeing with....

This is:

Quote:
Originally Posted by PalmettoTree View Post
The market is coming back just fine but I am concerned longterm.
The nominal value of the market is meaningless....
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Old 05-21-2020, 10:46 AM
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''Delinquencies among borrowers for past-due mortgages are soaring, a sign that Americans are struggling to pay their bills due to a wave of layoffs or lost income from the coronavirus pandemic.
Mortgage delinquencies surged by 1.6 million in April, the largest single-month jump in history, according to a report from Black Knight, a mortgage technology and data provider. The data includes both homeowners past due on mortgage payments who arenít in forbearance, along with those in forbearance plans and who didnít make a mortgage payment in April.''

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...il/5231835002/


More ''First Time In History.''
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Old 05-21-2020, 12:05 PM
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The best economic stimulus would be a 6 month moratorium on commercial and residential mortgages, beginning 6-1-2020. People and businesses could catch-up, the credit markets would stay liquid and lenders would have legal cover to be heroes to one and all. Name it something catchy.
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Old 05-21-2020, 12:12 PM
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The best economic stimulus would be a 6 month moratorium on commercial and residential mortgages, beginning 6-1-2020. People and businesses could catch-up, the credit markets would stay liquid and lenders would have legal cover to be heroes to one and all. Name it something catchy.
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Old 05-21-2020, 02:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blue123 View Post
''Delinquencies among borrowers for past-due mortgages are soaring, a sign that Americans are struggling to pay their bills due to a wave of layoffs or lost income from the coronavirus pandemic.
Mortgage delinquencies surged by 1.6 million in April, the largest single-month jump in history, according to a report from Black Knight, a mortgage technology and data provider. The data includes both homeowners past due on mortgage payments who arenít in forbearance, along with those in forbearance plans and who didnít make a mortgage payment in April.''

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...il/5231835002/


More ''First Time In History.''
Somewhere around half of all American households can not afford a $500-1000 emergency without borrowing money. After 6-10 weeks out of work they are going to be completely broke. They are far from now living paycheck to paycheck, but living on government largess (or smalless) as best they can.

I do believe Trump will get the economy buzzing again but it will take lots of time to try and get even close to where we were.
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Old 05-21-2020, 04:36 PM
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Originally Posted by sierra skier View Post
Somewhere around half of all American households can not afford a $500-1000 emergency without borrowing money. After 6-10 weeks out of work they are going to be completely broke. They are far from now living paycheck to paycheck, but living on government largess (or smalless) as best they can.

I do believe Trump will get the economy buzzing again but it will take lots of time to try and get even close to where we were.
Completely agree, most folks totally unprepared. I still like Trump and i will vote for him again but he initiated the lock down so bares some responsibility for getting things moving again... Now if that takes a suspension of the payroll tax, government backed low interest business loans and short term payouts so be it.

As you pointed out.
Fly in the buttermilk is time... How long will it take? Honestly I am less than optimistic about the so called V shaped recovery. Before this happened the economy was showing signs of slowing down and had been for a year or more, then there's the shale oil situation now in freefall due to our ''Saudi'' friends flooding the market. The trade war with China has become a decoupling of our respective economy's and I read this morning: 40% of Americans surveyed would not buy Chinese products but would rather pay more for made in the USA. Lots of businesses rely on Chinese products.

Consumer spending dropped 36% in April
Budget short falls
Mortgages
Car loans
Student loans
Just to name a few all in the red

The lingering Virus will continue to hamstring business so it needs to be delt with one way or another, ether we all learn to live with the risk or we all get vaccinated which may never happen.

Things have changed.
Some things may never be the same.
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