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Old 02-15-2020, 10:50 AM
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Originally Posted by Wolf5 View Post
If the Chinese have a financial meltdown, that contagion could spread worldwide, and b more devestating than the actual virus.



''In our ongoing attempts to glean some objective insight into what is actually happening "on the ground" in the notoriously opaque China, whose economy has been hammered by the Coronavirus epidemic, yesterday we showed several "alternative" economic indicators such as real-time measurements of air pollution (a proxy for industrial output), daily coal consumption (a proxy for electricity usage and manufacturing) and traffic congestion levels (a proxy for commerce and mobility), before concluding that China's economy appears to have ground to a halt.

That conclusion was cemented after looking at some other real-time charts which suggest that there is a very high probability that China's GDP in Q1 will not only flatline, but crater deep in the red for one simple reason: there is no economic activity taking place whatsoever.

We start with China's infrastructure and fixed asset investment, which until recently accounted for the bulk of Chinese GDP. As Goldman writes in an overnight report, in the Feb 7-13 week, steel apparent demand is down a whopping 40%, but that's only because flat steel is down "only" 12% Y/Y as some car plants have ordered their employee to return to work (likely against their will as the epidemic still rages).''


https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...proaching-zero




Any way you look at it China is experiencing a disaster of EPIC size and scope from killing over 300,000,000 pigs due to a virus to killing off of their poultry from H5N1 virus and now another virus killing off the people, so not only has their food supply been decimated now their economy is being crushed.....Incredible.
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Old 02-18-2020, 08:00 PM
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For those who didn't see it, both Apple and WalMart cut earnings estimates due to reduced demand and supply chain problems relating to the WuFlu.
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Old 02-18-2020, 08:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Prepper_Ed View Post
For those who didn't see it, both Apple and WalMart cut earnings estimates due to reduced demand and supply chain problems relating to the WuFlu.

Which Supply Chains Are Most At Risk: The Answer In One Chart
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...swer-one-chart




There will be shortages........
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Old 02-18-2020, 11:38 PM
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So far, I've been surprised markets haven't been hit harder. It could be everything has just been on such a long upswing, people are just letting things ride.

I've decided to take some off the table. One of the worst things you can do is get out of a position and then sadly see it continue to rise as it will cost more to buy in with less upside. What I've decided to do is leave large positions in high value companies alone. If things crash, they crash. Those high value companies and stocks will recover over time. And these are long term hold positions. For the more speculative portfolio, I've sold some portion of most positions; some very profitable, some a bit in the red. And that cash will stay in cash for the next several months until this sorts itself out.

If nothing bad happens, fine. The cash raised will get re-deployed to other investments at some point, or used to average down costs of poor performers that are good companies just having a bad moment in the market. If things tank badly across the board, at some point I'll take this cash and re-buy the old positions lowering all average costs and then just wait. Or buy other hammered stocks that are clearly being impacted only by this short to medium term thing. This too shall pass. The only question is just how painfully.

Of course, if I catch this thing and die, I'll maybe regret not just spending it all on a better BOL further out from the great masses.
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Old 02-19-2020, 12:55 AM
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Following the markets with great interest.

I am very cynical of the markets and believe they are a total shell game of manipulation and there is often no rhyme or reason to the day-to-day movements. Just overall trends. Markets don't like uncertainty, and I'm surprised they haven't dropped 20%.

For those short term investors, however, there's a cost to pulling out. You pay tax on short term capital gains, IIRC 20% in brokerage accounts (not so in retirement accounts IIRC). So unless you expect a >20% decline in your position, it's probably safer to try to stay in rather than pull out and pay a tax amounting to a 1/5th loss on your gains.

I have some positions, like a healthcare mutual fund, that I think will go up from this. Some other industries may benefit, for instance perhaps the stay-at-home industries that allow telecommuting for work, or home gym equipment, etc. which allow people to not leave the house. Household goods like J&J and soap makers, etc. could profit. Other industries might suffer, like mass transit, auto makers, etc. as people stop traveling as much.

There will be winners and losers depending on sectors IMO. The extent is hard to say.

I'm worried, but not panicked. Watching very closely. If there's some sort of a big triggering event I'm working out plans to act to protect myself and assets.
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Old 02-19-2020, 08:51 PM
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I got out of some index fund stock in my IRA so no tax issues. I'm leaving stocks in my personal account alone.

I too am puzzled by the market's complacency. I had expected at least a 10% correction based on the damage the coronavirus has caused the Chinese economy. If coronavirus cases begin to grow at an exponential rate in Western countries then I will sell more stock in my IRA.
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Old 02-19-2020, 09:02 PM
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First of all, I believe all the governments are lying to us about the severity of this to avoid a panic and market collapse. The other threads detail all of this dishonesty and concealment of information. I think once the true disaster is revealed we are in trouble.

My crystal ball is no better than anyone else, so YMMV. Markets have been on a bull run for 3-5 or so years. I seems they're due for a correction and I suspect this *could* be it.

Contrast that with this article, which shows very bullish behavior of markets in past viral outbreaks. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...ads-2020-01-22

I could see it going either way.

I thought really hard on it today, and figured a best case is markets go flat for the next 3 months. Markets hate uncertainty. I really doubt any real gains are on the table right now, except in some niche markets like home exercise equipment as people stop going to public gyms, or healthcare stocks, or home supply and cleaning products. And if in a few months this blows over, I can get back in.

I kept some of my funds in these things, but got out of about 90% of my investments. I'd rather pay a small tax. As for a correction, I cannot stomach a 20, 30, 40% market drop...

If it drops a large percent, I can get back in and buy in at lower prices. I'm not hoping that happens, but I'm very concerned and cannot see markets ignoring this pandemic.
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Old 02-19-2020, 10:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blue123 View Post
[B][I]
Any way you look at it China is experiencing a disaster of EPIC size and scope from killing over 300,000,000 pigs due to a virus to killing off of their poultry from H5N1 virus and now another virus killing off the people, so not only has their food supply been decimated now their economy is being crushed.....Incredible.
To the point that their lack of consumption drove down the price of oil bigly, resulting in the price of gasoline / fuels dropping as well...

I need a crap ton more empty 5 gal cans so I can stock the hell up on heating fuels while they are dirt cheap.
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Old 02-21-2020, 12:45 AM
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The Price Of Gold (POG) keeps edging UP.

IMHO because WUFLU is defiantly increasingly causing world-wide financial uncertainty & insecurity.



https://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

WHO, CDC, USA & other major .Govs are trying to keep a LID on actual factual (truthful info) about WuFlu, so as to tamp down the possibility / probability of all sorts of various types of PANICS.

If you see a sudden major surge in POG, that means the major players see WuFlu getting FAR worse.

My family is a small gold producer, have a significant stock-pile & have been selling on this rise in POG.

Only because CASH IS MOST OFTEN KING & I can replace what I gold I have & will sell in this run-up, when we go back in production come spring.

I will sell more @ $1640, then again @ $1660, etc., etc..

IMHO. if WuFlu goes FULL-TILT pandemic all over the place, we may even see $2K or more POG

EDIT TO ADD: In just a few minutes, POG keeps creeping up

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Old 02-21-2020, 08:42 AM
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US Exposed To Immediate Impact From "Supply-Chain Shock", Deutsche Says
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/de...mediate-impact




Frankly this could turn into a real SHTF economic event.
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Old 02-21-2020, 09:50 AM
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POG @ $1647 & climbing
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Old 02-21-2020, 12:26 PM
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Equity markets started correcting yesterday and are correcting further today... lots of red on the board folks.

Time to really look at your investments and maybe hedge yourself and consider taking some profits off the board.

We could be in for a 1-2 quarter 10-20% correction.

This is all speculation but I don't see any immediate upsides to halted supply chains and travel restrictions, grounded flights, end of tourism, etc. for at least the near term during this virus spreading.
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Old 02-21-2020, 12:46 PM
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Stocks-decline-as-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-jump

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...cid=spartandhp
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Old 02-21-2020, 07:05 PM
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Not just financial but also supply chains.
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Old 02-21-2020, 07:11 PM
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At some point the markets will get nervous.

What is strange here in Australia is the market is strong at the moment, and sitting just below highs after rising since xmas. We have a lot of exposure to China with our exports , but that doesn't seem to have a huge effect yet.
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Old 02-21-2020, 08:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ralfy View Post
Not just financial but also supply chains.
Duh.......
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Old 02-21-2020, 08:15 PM
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Default Panic Time?

''The economic impacts will be devastating. As China flatlines, and first quarter GDP growth approaches zero, the global economy, including the U.S., will also be greatly disrupted. Perhaps many low-cost, Made in China products will go on indefinite hiatus. What then?''

''In the meantime, and despite yesterdayís moderate selloff, the major U.S. stock market indexes are near record highs. The expectation of ever more Fed intervention has pacified investors. But thatís not allÖ
The yield on the 10-Year Treasury note has slid down to 1.50 percent; near the lower limit of the federal funds rate, which is currently between 1.5 and 1.75 percent. In other words, the Fedís next policy move has already been decided by Treasury investors. Similarly, gold investors, which have pushed the price of gold above $1,620 per ounce, have also preempted the Fed.
But whatís really going on? Moreover, should you panic, yet?''


https://economicprism.com/chinas-deb...possible-time/
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Old 02-22-2020, 08:20 PM
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Our financial system has been on life support since 2008 and in recent years it's been hanging on by a thread. I believe WuFlu or not it was going tits up sooner than later but this virus is going to nudge it along nicely right off the cliff.

Anyone seen the inverted yield curve?

Gold and silver moving north?

The balloon is ready to pop.
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Old 02-22-2020, 11:11 PM
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This year's annual meetings for many businesses are going to be extremely unsettled. Imagine any CEO where they have massive amounts of offshored JIT production to places like China and how they are going to explain that 'business judgment' away.

Time for some C-Suite folks to either take very unexpected retirement to "spend more time with family" or just take a very abrupt leave of absence, if not flat out fired.

There's also another situation brewing out there. Both MSCI and the Bloomberg Index funds. They are getting US pension fund money for investing into index funds relying on indexes using a makeup of higher and higher portions of chinese stocks and bonds.

IF the pension funds start showing stagnant/negative returns because of the China impacts and/or COVID-19 (expect 3RD quarter of 2020), there will be buckets of blood everywhere. Wall Street will do their usual dance of "Nobody could have seen this happening" and the pension funds will take it in the shorts.

Maybe not......
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Old 02-24-2020, 11:55 AM
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For 401/k investments, should folks be considering moving some monies into Money Market options within the employer plans?
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