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Old 01-30-2020, 12:28 PM
Bluesman60 Bluesman60 is online now
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If decontamination of sorts occurs in our ports, the reverberations are going to be brutal. Ships are already stacked up waiting to make entry into the Port of Long Beach/Los Angeles. Any time a merchant marine ship is not moving the company is losing money. Once decontamination begins, it slows down the whole process of moving goods onto trucks and rail that means goods go up in price. Ports are controlled by Long Shore Men Unions and are not 24 hr operations. Long Shore Men are the only ones that can move the containers to the site where CBP/Agriculture (or some other FED entity) can examine and decontaminate. the delays will be awful and we the consumers will feel it big time and hence the market.
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Old 01-30-2020, 09:14 PM
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If the Chinese have a financial meltdown, that contagion could spread worldwide, and b more devestating than the actual virus.
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Old 01-30-2020, 09:30 PM
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Quote:
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If the Chinese have a financial meltdown, that contagion could spread worldwide, and b more devestating than the actual virus.
Well said.

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Old 01-31-2020, 05:10 AM
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Originally Posted by Wolf5 View Post
If the Chinese have a financial meltdown, that contagion could spread worldwide, and b more devestating than the actual virus.
That is why I am taking my "Chips off the table"
Cash and CD'S only for awhile.
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Old 02-02-2020, 09:11 PM
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Chinese markets opened Monday down about 9% after the prolonged holiday. U.S. stock index futures are higher after Friday's sell-off.
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Old 02-02-2020, 09:25 PM
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Chinese markets opened Monday down about 9% after the prolonged holiday.
The other shoe will drop soon.
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Old 02-03-2020, 03:05 AM
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Quote:
The other shoe will drop soon.
Well, don't quite know what this means yet, but it's certainly interesting.

The 2019-nCoV cases that really got attention in the business community are the cases in Germany involving face-to-face educating of corporate employees. A lot of business folks (anecdotally) are like, no travel to China for us, thank you. But now they are even talking about extending to working from home and even major cutbacks in any air travel.

The other school of thought is from Wolf Richter (The Wolf Street Report). His analysis & comments are here.

Let's hope he's spot on. That means I'm completely wrong, and I'll be by far the happiest person around if that's the case.

Just as a note, right now the USD/CNY and USD/CNH are reflecting a difference of .005 (7.0198 vrs. 7.0148). Almost right in line with each other, moving in tandem. Unusual.

There's also another issue out there that's likely going to rise up and bite corporate America. Indian H1-B visa holders being imported into the USA by (primarily) Indian firms. If 2019-nCoV takes hold in India, then India's tech on shoring here is going to run up against some real resistance. Sillycon valley could end up in real trouble.
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Old 02-03-2020, 04:02 AM
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Interesting he concentrated on what is happening in China.

And I also hope he is right.

The next 6 weeks will tell the tale. If infections and deaths rise in western nations it won't be pretty. If they don't, it will be a temporary dip in the economy and it will recover.
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Old 02-03-2020, 04:57 AM
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Unless it's a Spanish Flu scenario, I don't see the Coronavirus causing a recession.
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Old 02-04-2020, 10:21 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by strokes762 View Post
Unless it's a Spanish Flu scenario, I don't see the Coronavirus causing a recession.
Imagine if shipments abroad halted for several months, causing severe supply chain bottlenecks.



*And not 30 minutes later we just saw Kia and Hyundai idle factories thanks to supply disruptions. There is very real potential here, IMHO.

Last edited by spameggsbaconandspam; 02-04-2020 at 11:07 AM.. Reason: Update
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Old 02-04-2020, 06:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spameggsbaconandspam View Post
Imagine if shipments abroad halted for several months, causing severe supply chain bottlenecks.



*And not 30 minutes later we just saw Kia and Hyundai idle factories thanks to supply disruptions. There is very real potential here, IMHO.

The other shoe.....
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Old 02-05-2020, 03:45 AM
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The other shoe.....
You mean the Nike factory and stores that closed?
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Old 02-05-2020, 04:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Prepper_Ed View Post
You mean the Nike factory and stores that closed?
Yes, supply chain interruptions.
If this goes on for months, there will come a time when things wont be on back order, they will no longer be available.

In my opinion, the markets are ignoring this.
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Old 02-05-2020, 09:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by woowoo2 View Post
Yes, supply chain interruptions.
If this goes on for months, there will come a time when things wont be on back order, they will no longer be available.

In my opinion, the markets are ignoring this.
I'm imagining tires, paper products and medications being unavailable. There is potential for far more impact that simply back orders on iPhones and flat screens.

Nanjing province has essentially implemented martial law. They are locking down port cities.
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Old 02-05-2020, 09:58 PM
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If workers are not producing goods in China that is a big problem, but I don't see products being contaminated with the virus as an issue. It only lasts a few days on surfaces and is spread from person to person. I don't see where customs would need to hold up products coming into USA for decontamination if they take a few weeks to ship anyway. There isn't a need to radiate everything being shipped here if the virus will break down on its own in a short time.
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Old 02-05-2020, 10:20 PM
Nomad, 2nd Nomad, 2nd is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by woowoo2 View Post
Yes, supply chain interruptions.
If this goes on for months, there will come a time when things wont be on back order, they will no longer be available.

In my opinion, the markets are ignoring this.
They most definitely are not:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla...234700897.html

One of several.
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Old 02-06-2020, 02:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Nomad, 2nd View Post
They most definitely are not:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla...234700897.html

One of several.
This could really pinch them as they have a cash flow issue that's been solved by investor confidence in their future performance. Now they've closed all their stores in China and the Gigafactory there may be closed for who knows how long.
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Old 02-08-2020, 04:43 PM
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https://twitter.com/Jkylebass/status...34055504318466

Quote:
Kyle Bass
Chief Investment Officer Hayman Capital Management

Today I’m releasing our views on the financial, political, and legal plight of Hong Kong. I think Investors that have assets invested there should immediately move them into USD before it’s too late.
Quote:
You must move your USD to a US bank. HSBC and Stan Chart have balance sheets that are ticking time bombs.
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Old 02-08-2020, 09:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mere_Man View Post
That's a May 2019 tweet! Check the date closely.
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Old 02-08-2020, 10:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prepper_Ed View Post
That's a May 2019 tweet! Check the date closely.

I didn't see that - thanks!
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