How Likely is an EMP attack? - Survivalist Forum
Survivalist Forum

Advertise Here

Go Back   Survivalist Forum > >
Articles Classifieds Donations Gallery Groups Links Store Survival Files


Notices

Manmade and Natural Disasters Drought, Diseases, Earthquakes, Riots, Wars

Advertise Here
Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Prepared For EMP Attack ? JC Refuge Safecastle 0 02-14-2018 04:53 PM
Questions on EMP and Immediate Action for an attack warning pnello Nuclear, Biological and Chemical (NBC) Survival 40 01-30-2018 01:30 PM
EMP Attack on America palladrj Manmade and Natural Disasters 40 11-02-2017 10:04 AM
EMP Attack Threat: Mostly Nonsense to Sell Stuff to Preppers AllOutdoor.com AllOutdoor.com 2 07-24-2017 10:24 AM

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-06-2019, 07:12 PM
Prepper_Ed's Avatar
Prepper_Ed Prepper_Ed is offline
Trapper
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: NW Arkansas
Posts: 810
Thanks: 1,125
Thanked 1,834 Times in 587 Posts
Default How Likely is an EMP attack?



Advertise Here

I read a lot about the danger of an EMP attack from North Korea. Some guy in the Pentagon even wrote a book on it. I'm going to take the contrarian position and say it's currently unlikely for the following reasons:

1) According to the rocket scientists, Dictator Good Hair doesn't currently have the technical expertise to launch a nuclear warhead into the correct position to cause an EMP over North America. Given time the North Koreans could probably develop the technology but that could be a decade from now.

2) An EMP doesn't discriminate based on nationality and any EMP attack on North America would probably take out multiple satellites belonging to the Russians and Chinese. This would essentially be a declaration of war against China and Russia. I have to believe that little Kim understands that NATO, China and Russia combined would reduce his little country to a smoking cinder if he were to try something so stupid.

Massive solar storms, which can cause much of the same damage an EMP would cause to the electrical grid are probably a bigger threat. One hit earth in 1859 and another just missed in 2012.

Just my thoughts.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 8 Users Say Thank You to Prepper_Ed For This Useful Post:
Old 01-06-2019, 07:41 PM
Jackpine1's Avatar
Jackpine1 Jackpine1 is offline
VIP Member
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: L'Etoile du Nord
Age: 67
Posts: 758
Thanks: 2,612
Thanked 1,416 Times in 535 Posts
Default

Well, I'd say 'how likely is an EMP attack', and how likely is an EMP attack from N. Korea' are two different questions.

It wouldn't need to be launched; it would simply be floated into a major harbor, LA, NYC, whatever. Like to know the probability myself.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 5 Users Say Thank You to Jackpine1 For This Useful Post:
Old 01-06-2019, 07:50 PM
solar1's Avatar
solar1 solar1 is offline
VIP Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 442
Thanks: 296
Thanked 367 Times in 222 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jackpine1 View Post
Well, I'd say 'how likely is an EMP attack', and how likely is an EMP attack from N. Korea' are two different questions.

It wouldn't need to be launched; it would simply be floated into a major harbor, LA, NYC, whatever. Like to know the probability myself.
If we are talking about specifically EMP, for a large scale emp attack to be effective, my understanding is that yes, a launch would be required for it to reach the optimum detonation height.

Of course, a localized nuke attack would be horrific, but it would be limited in direct damage area, including emp effects.


Others can now chime in to correct my understanding.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to solar1 For This Useful Post:
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
Old 01-06-2019, 08:08 PM
Snyper708's Avatar
Snyper708 Snyper708 is offline
Survivor
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: Eastern North Carolina
Posts: 2,650
Thanks: 0
Thanked 4,216 Times in 1,610 Posts
Default

EMP is not something worth worrying over unless you're willing to invest thousands of dollars in preparations.

The effects are mostly speculation and usually exaggerated.

Prep for living without power and you'll be covered.
Keep in mind that up until about 70 years ago large areas of the US had no electricity.
Even I can remember when you had to actually walk across a room to change the channels on TV (which was Black and White for most people)
Quick reply to this message
The Following 7 Users Say Thank You to Snyper708 For This Useful Post:
Old 01-06-2019, 08:59 PM
Aerindel's Avatar
Aerindel Aerindel is offline
Abnormality biased.
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: Montananistan.
Posts: 8,089
Thanks: 10,679
Thanked 22,267 Times in 6,424 Posts
Default

Quote:
Massive solar storms, which can cause much of the same damage an EMP would cause to the electrical grid are probably a bigger threat. One hit earth in 1859 and another just missed in 2012.
Indeed. About a 50/50 chance over a human lifespan, and unlike an EMP, it doesn't count on anyones bad decision, just random chance which doesn't care about the politics or who wins or loses.

An EMP on the other hand, that is pretty much WWIII.

Quote:
Of course, a localized nuke attack would be horrific, but it would be limited in direct damage area, including emp effects.
Its my opinion that EMP is really the most practical use of nuclear weapons and that using them simply to bomb cities would be of little value in modern war and not achieve anything you couldn't do with conventional weapons.

Quote:
The effects are mostly speculation and usually exaggerated.

Prep for living without power and you'll be covered.
Indeed. Although the effects are probably greatly exaggerated the destruction of the power grid does seem likely which would have much the same result as the sci-fi EMPs after the first week or two passed.
Quick reply to this message
Old 01-06-2019, 09:31 PM
Moccasin's Avatar
Moccasin Moccasin is offline
Mod Certified PITA!
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Somewhere
Posts: 11,530
Thanks: 34,365
Thanked 21,359 Times in 7,700 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by solar1 View Post
If we are talking about specifically EMP, for a large scale emp attack to be effective, my understanding is that yes, a launch would be required for it to reach the optimum detonation height.
This is correct.

Quote:
Originally Posted by solar1 View Post
Of course, a localized nuke attack would be horrific, but it would be limited in direct damage area, including emp effects.

Others can now chime in to correct my understanding.
Not to correct, but to add the consideration that a nuclear blast in any major US city would set off massive social, political, and economic chaos. There really is no such thing as localized damage with a nuclear bomb.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Moccasin For This Useful Post:
Old 01-06-2019, 09:40 PM
charliemeyer007's Avatar
charliemeyer007 charliemeyer007 is offline
reluctant sinner
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Rent Free in your head
Posts: 15,642
Thanks: 34
Thanked 28,971 Times in 10,158 Posts
Default

An EMP attack could happen. The technology to do it exist. All that is lacking is the terrorist to get the means ... could be Iran, N. Korea, Pakistan, Russia, China .... or even our own gubernment to protect the swamp or as a false flag operation.

The CME is likely too, has happened before so a safe bet it will happen again.

+1 for prepare to live off grid.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to charliemeyer007 For This Useful Post:
Old 01-06-2019, 11:29 PM
Musibike's Avatar
Musibike Musibike is offline
Survivor
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Texas
Posts: 3,348
Thanks: 1,503
Thanked 2,864 Times in 1,485 Posts
Default

I believe A CME attack is quite likely to happen over the USA mainland within the next quarter year. They are standing in line waiting on an excuse.

Russia encourages IRAN and other proxy idiots to begin floating their ships off of our coast. Any of these could launch a multiple of multiple dose EMP weapons over us. I am surprised they haven't done it already?


I would not be at all surprised to wake up in the morning with every thing completely dead. Knowing that retaliatory efforts are being staged through out the globe.
Quick reply to this message
Old 01-07-2019, 12:03 AM
ajole ajole is offline
Survivor
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 10,768
Thanks: 8,700
Thanked 25,093 Times in 7,805 Posts
Default

It ainít gonna happen.

Itís a nuclear attack on America. No country is going to do that, and any proxy attack would be figured out before too long, so the countries arenít going to get a rogue band of ďterroristsĒ to do it for them, either.

And real terrorists are going to be very successful with far less investment just blowing crap up with regular bombs. Not to mention, they can sell FAR more drugs and get FAR more money out of the CIA, if our infrastructure isnít destroyed.

Besides...the last major attack in the US resulted in nearly 2 decades of warfare in their house, while the US just rolls along. Does anyone REALLY think they want to get that whole thing fired up again? With the nuclear option on the table?

And no, North Korea isnít that stupid.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 6 Users Say Thank You to ajole For This Useful Post:
Old 01-07-2019, 12:55 AM
Wyobuckaroo48's Avatar
Wyobuckaroo48 Wyobuckaroo48 is offline
Prepared
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Northern BC Canada
Posts: 260
Thanks: 0
Thanked 345 Times in 150 Posts
Default

I think if someone wanted to cause problems for North America the fastest, easiest, safest way for them would be to do computer hacking.

For instance.. Fill in the name of who you think is the most evil towards North America. Lets call them the Evils.

If the Evils hacked the New York subway system how much problem would that be and how many would it affect ? Could the subway upgrade to safer computer control ? Not very fast, and not much better than now. And at what price.

Same with power systems. Hack the Canadian or US hydro systems on either coast and see how many are affected.

Hack and delete the shipping logs of container shipping on either coast and see what problems that causes.

Airports and airlines.... Not just flights in North America, but flights coming and going to North America. What could go wrong there ??

Could any of these systems upgrade to safer computer control ? Not very fast, and not much better than now. At what price in inconvenience as well as money to the public.

And do all this over and over. A determined group of Evils would be impossible to deal with. A band of Evils networking in multiple continents could disrupt any part of the world they set there sights on.

My 5 cents of opinion.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 7 Users Say Thank You to Wyobuckaroo48 For This Useful Post:
Old 01-07-2019, 12:59 AM
Aerindel's Avatar
Aerindel Aerindel is offline
Abnormality biased.
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: Montananistan.
Posts: 8,089
Thanks: 10,679
Thanked 22,267 Times in 6,424 Posts
Default

Quote:
And do all this over and over. A determined group of Evils would be impossible to deal with. A band of Evils networking in multiple continents could disrupt any part of the world they set there sights on.
I would ask though...if this was so easy, how come it hasn't happened yet?

Somehow I think that cyber warfare isn't all that easy.
Quick reply to this message
Old 01-07-2019, 01:00 AM
shibbershabber shibbershabber is offline
Trapper
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 955
Thanks: 142
Thanked 1,241 Times in 481 Posts
Default

I agree with ajole ...

Nothing going to happen.

This is all the hype of hypes....
No one is attacking us, never will
Quick reply to this message
Old 01-07-2019, 02:06 AM
WilliamAshley WilliamAshley is offline
Birds of a Feather
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,535
Thanks: 97
Thanked 852 Times in 515 Posts
Default

Quote:
2) An EMP doesn't discriminate based on nationality and any EMP attack on North America would probably take out multiple satellites belonging to the Russians and Chinese.
I dunno from the Russian context I think they may take the loss of their satalites in stride. Plus for both North Korea and China they border North Koreas millions strong military and arn't really intersted in getting into a land war with them.


Quote:
This would essentially be a declaration of war against China and Russia.
No, no it wouldn't.



Quote:
Massive solar storms, which can cause much of the same damage an EMP would cause to the electrical grid are probably a bigger threat. One hit earth in 1859 and another just missed in 2012.
Both are threats neither is highly probably but rather damn that was bad luck type situation.
Quote:

Just my thoughts.
A nuclear style high alttitude EMP attack happening is about as likely as seeing your colon fall into a toilet.

Its not something that is likely to happen but it is technically possible in the right circumstances. A sure sign that it could happen is if you start poking around in the wrong places and start seeing blood and anger.

I think you over estimate the desire of China and Russia to invade north korea. Nato has been at this since the 1950s while China and Russia have been trying to prevent it since the 1950s. I see no change, in fact Russia and China would likely be more concerned about the nuclear fallout from US missile strikes.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to WilliamAshley For This Useful Post:
Old 01-07-2019, 02:34 AM
Aerindel's Avatar
Aerindel Aerindel is offline
Abnormality biased.
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: Montananistan.
Posts: 8,089
Thanks: 10,679
Thanked 22,267 Times in 6,424 Posts
Default

Quote:
Both are threats neither is highly probably but rather damn that was bad luck type situation.
ehh...not according to scientists. If you run the math a CME is actually pretty likely....about twice as likely as needing to call the fire department for instance.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley....9/2011SW000734

Or in simple terms 12% per decade....pretty high for a civilization ending event. Makes a lot of the other stuff people worry about seem pretty silly in comparison. We will likely be hit by thousands of carrington level CME's before we have to worry about yellowstone for instance.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Aerindel For This Useful Post:
Old 01-07-2019, 04:31 AM
WilliamAshley WilliamAshley is offline
Birds of a Feather
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,535
Thanks: 97
Thanked 852 Times in 515 Posts
Default

While CMEs are likely to happen ongoing... one of sufficient force, direction and timing to knock out the US power grid, non connected nodes and backup systems is not in the same ballpark as needing to call the fire department.

A CME is not the same as a catastrophic CME much as a solar minimum is not the same as a grand solar minimum.

Hopefully you do or will read up on the specifics required for a CME to be one of concern to the power grid in a catastrophic way, they are pretty uncommon. There are only really two in North America of great note over the last 200 years.


Its defiantely worth reading up on and planning for (far more likely than a super volcano going on) but still not super likely. It is something that could happen though but certain conditions need to be in place and there is a period of warning on it so its not that we would get caught with our pants down. We'd have minutes to prepare not unlike a nuclear attack.

"Important CME parameters used in analysis are size, speed, and direction. These properties are inferred from orbital satellites’ coronagraph imagery by SWPC forecasters to determine any Earth-impact likelihood. The NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) carries a coronagraph – known as the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). This instrument has two ranges for optical imaging of the Sun’s corona: C2 (covers distance range of 1.5 to 6 solar radii) and C3 (range of 3 to 32 solar radii). The LASCO instrument is currently the primary means used by forecasters to analyze and categorize CMEs; however another coronagraph is on the NASA STEREO-A spacecraft as an additional source."

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/lasco-coronagraph


https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/s...ain/index.html

https://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/O..._space_weather

At the very least if you hear of a major CME impacting your locality consider unplugging anything you arnt using or don't want to loose from the wall.

If in the moonshot odds you actually get hit with "the big one" the impacts depend on the design of your electronic devices. another option is to build a powerbar that removes the two prongs for neutral and common from the wall plug or is traced out to your own ground rod (as opposed to connected to community water pipes etc..) grounding your own rod could be better than grounding to a community ground.

Damage to the power grid is well beyond the scope of anything that we might be able to do such as building giant tesla coils to shoot lightening into the earth from the power grid, or energetic beam transformers to send lasers into space or or building in scada that disconnects the grid from overcharged sections etc.. these are all projects for the utility companies and government to worry about. The grid in the US is slowly being hardened. It can get shutdown briefly from major CMEs but to break the grid takes a much rarer form of CME that is at a much higher level. There have been close calls over the years so its not that it can't happen its just that a lot of things need to line up for it to happen.


The US does have launch interceptors, some known some less well known to deal with these things. Additonally with the official opening of the US space command as a separate command and movement toward a US space forces threads from lone missile launches are drastically reduced. The US does have a space interception capability. The big threat ongoing to the US is subsurface launches such as torpedos. I have faith that US stratcom would be all over any missile launch coming out of north korea and draw a red lline on when they would employ resources to neutralized it in space or in the upper atmosphere. In South Korea there are THEL raptors and other interception platforms. There are naval system and special interceptors in Alaska. There are also space vehicles that are used for a variety of roles. This is just what is public knowledge.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...issile_defense

Its true that it is technically possible such as launch could succeed but it is not high odds. Like 1 in 20 or 1 in 30 odds. Not really high but still enough to be concerning. I would be more concerned about such as device that may already be in space than some sort of launch. Any country really wanting to succeed at this type of attack isn't going to launch a missile at the time they want to do this, they would have that sitting in space already with some way that won't get confused of initiating its activation. There are too many risks to depending on launch for delivery due to SDI development and missile shields.
Quick reply to this message
Old 01-07-2019, 05:04 AM
Aerindel's Avatar
Aerindel Aerindel is offline
Abnormality biased.
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: Montananistan.
Posts: 8,089
Thanks: 10,679
Thanked 22,267 Times in 6,424 Posts
Default

Quote:
While CMEs are likely to happen ongoing... one of sufficient force, direction and timing to knock out the US power grid, non connected nodes and backup systems is not in the same ballpark as needing to call the fire department.
I see you didn't read my link.

My link is specifically for carrington level CME and specifically for them impacting earth. This is estimated to be a 12% risk per decade. This is not CME's in general or low power CME's hitting earth, this is the odds of am outright Carrington event.

But its okay, Everybody seems to make this same mistake. When told there is a 12% chance per decade for a carrington event they think that is just the odds of a carrington level CME happening somewhere....normalcy bias is so strong they don't really process that 12% is the actual risk of TEOTAWAKI they face every decade of life. They are so used to scientists talking about meteors every 50 million years or volcano's every 100,000k that they think it must be on that order...when really its a much more human scale.

And we know this fairly well because of those satellites you linked to. This is not a guess, we know how many Carrington level CME's happen in a year, and from that its easy to see what the odds are that earth will be in the path of one. Its no different than a spinning roulette wheel....well...actually its worse.

If you want, you can do the math yourself to calculate the odds over any period of time you like.

To be perfectly clear, if the data from the NFPA and NASA are to be believed. Your twice as likely to experience a carrington level CME in your lifetime than you are to call your local fire department. The odds of a carrington CME are slightly worse than your odds of flood if you live in a 100 year flood plain. Think about that.

"But wait" You say, house fires happen all the time!

Indeed. The chances of A house fire happening among the hundreds or thousands in your community over a decade is very very high.

But the odds of YOUR specific house catching fire are very low.

If there where as man "earths" as there are houses in your community there would be about twice as many of them hit by CMEs each year than by fires.

If there was only one house in the world it would go about 200 years between fires on average...nobody would ever buy fire insurance, it would seem so rare and distant. Probably nobody would prep for CME''s either even though would be twice as common....but here we are...we very few preppers and tens of millions of people paying out the nose for fire insurance they probably won't need because the huge sample size of houses gives people a false sense of risk.


Quote:
We'd have minutes to prepare not unlike a nuclear attack.
We should have about 18 hours warning in a best case scenario....which is likely to make no difference in the outcome.

Simply put, a Carrington level CME is one of the most likely disasters anyone on earth is going to be faced with, far more so than fire, flood, storm or tornado on average, and about as likely any one a city along the eastern coast being hit by a hurricane over a hundred year period.

Most of the 'normal' things people prep for are far less likely than the odds of a disastrous, civilization ending CME.

WWIII, EMP, Yellowstone, defensive gun use, bear attacks, great depressions and all the other stuff people talk about here are statistical fairytales in comparison.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 5 Users Say Thank You to Aerindel For This Useful Post:
Old 01-07-2019, 05:46 AM
franklin franklin is offline
Survivor
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Eastern US
Posts: 6,967
Thanks: 1,687
Thanked 13,040 Times in 4,516 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Prepper_Ed View Post
I read a lot about the danger of an EMP attack from North Korea. Some guy in the Pentagon even wrote a book on it. I'm going to take the contrarian position and say it's currently unlikely for the following reasons:

1) According to the rocket scientists, Dictator Good Hair doesn't currently have the technical expertise to launch a nuclear warhead into the correct position to cause an EMP over North America. Given time the North Koreans could probably develop the technology but that could be a decade from now.

2) An EMP doesn't discriminate based on nationality and any EMP attack on North America would probably take out multiple satellites belonging to the Russians and Chinese. This would essentially be a declaration of war against China and Russia. I have to believe that little Kim understands that NATO, China and Russia combined would reduce his little country to a smoking cinder if he were to try something so stupid.

Massive solar storms, which can cause much of the same damage an EMP would cause to the electrical grid are probably a bigger threat. One hit earth in 1859 and another just missed in 2012.

Just my thoughts.
The Iranians have the ability to place an EMP at the optimum altitude. They just can't reach the US yet from Iran.
Quick reply to this message
The Following User Says Thank You to franklin For This Useful Post:
Old 01-07-2019, 05:48 AM
WilliamAshley WilliamAshley is offline
Birds of a Feather
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,535
Thanks: 97
Thanked 852 Times in 515 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aerindel View Post
I see you didn't read my link.
I know enough about CMEs from years of reading that my opinion is pretty heavily formed already and I am short on time.


Quote:
My link is specifically for carrington level CME and specifically for them impacting earth. This is estimated to be a 12% risk per decade. This is not CME's in general or low power CME's hitting earth, this is the odds of am outright Carrington event.

I think those odds may be a little off. While we are hit with CMEs from time to time we have already had a recent relatively strong CME, however there isn't enough to go on to say that we will be hit with a CME powerful enough to destroy the power grid.
Not saying it isn't possible I just think the 10% per decade thing may be a little off.


Quote:
But its okay, Everybody seems to make this same mistake. When told there is a 12% chance per decade for a carrington event they think that is just the odds of a carrington level CME happening somewhere....normalcy bias is so strong they don't really process that 12% is the actual risk of TEOTAWAKI they fave every decade of life.
Nah, my basis is that only two such events have happened, and for it to be large enough to knock out the entire US power grid (continental would) be extreme, the planet and point of ejection would have to be aligned perfectly. Your odds would be more believable for a Carrington event hitting earth somewhere, just not necessarily the US as that reduces the odds quite a bit.

Quote:
And we know this fairly well because of those satellites you linked to. This is not a guess, we know how many Carrington level CME's happen in a year, and from that its easy to see what the odds are that earth will be in the path of one. Its no different than a spinning roulette wheel....well...actually its worse.

Another way to think about it....imagine 100 earths sharing our same orbit. Every ten years on average 12 of them will be struck with CMEs. Over seventy years, half of them. Over 200 years...90 of them. (and indeed, many of them more than once)
As said CMEs are not uncommon but to align the point of ejection, the planet and the magnitude are far far less common.


Quote:
If you want, you can do the math yourself to calculate the odds over any period of time you like.
I've already looked into it in the past.

Quote:
To be perfectly clear, if the data from the NFPA and NASA are to be believed. Your twice as likely to experience a carrington level CME in your lifetime than you are to call your local fire department. The odds of a carrington CME are slightly worse than your odds of flood if you live in a 100 year flood plain. Think about that.
we don't call the fire department, we call 911.

Quote:
We should have about 18 hours warning in a best case scenario....which is likely to make no difference in the outcome.

Simply put, a Carrington level CME is one of the most likely disasters anyone on earth is going to be faced with, far more so than fire, flood, storm or tornado on average, and about as likely any one a city along the eastern coast being hit by a hurricane over a hundred year period.

Most of the 'normal' things people prep for are far less likely than the odds of a disastrous, civilization ending CME.

WWIII, EMP, Yellowstone, defensive gun use, bear attacks, great depressions and all the other stuff people talk about here are statistical fairytales in comparison.
I don't completely agree with you as it is all fairly relative but I am not discounting the risk of a CME event, I just think other things are a greater threat to earth in my lifetime.


To be very honest I don't think we will see a Carrington level CME this decade, we were narrowly missed a year or so ago. I don't think we will be hit on the low end of the solar cycle. My rough geuss would be this issue won't happen until atleast 2022.
Quick reply to this message
The Following User Says Thank You to WilliamAshley For This Useful Post:
Old 01-07-2019, 06:09 AM
franklin franklin is offline
Survivor
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Eastern US
Posts: 6,967
Thanks: 1,687
Thanked 13,040 Times in 4,516 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aerindel View Post
I see you didn't read my link.

My link is specifically for carrington level CME and specifically for them impacting earth. This is estimated to be a 12% risk per decade. This is not CME's in general or low power CME's hitting earth, this is the odds of am outright Carrington event.

But its okay, Everybody seems to make this same mistake. When told there is a 12% chance per decade for a carrington event they think that is just the odds of a carrington level CME happening somewhere....normalcy bias is so strong they don't really process that 12% is the actual risk of TEOTAWAKI they face every decade of life. They are so used to scientists talking about meteors every 50 million years or volcano's every 100,000k that they think it must be on that order...when really its a much more human scale.

And we know this fairly well because of those satellites you linked to. This is not a guess, we know how many Carrington level CME's happen in a year, and from that its easy to see what the odds are that earth will be in the path of one. Its no different than a spinning roulette wheel....well...actually its worse.

If you want, you can do the math yourself to calculate the odds over any period of time you like.

To be perfectly clear, if the data from the NFPA and NASA are to be believed. Your twice as likely to experience a carrington level CME in your lifetime than you are to call your local fire department. The odds of a carrington CME are slightly worse than your odds of flood if you live in a 100 year flood plain. Think about that.

"But wait" You say, house fires happen all the time!

Indeed. The chances of A house fire happening among the hundreds or thousands in your community over a decade is very very high.

But the odds of YOUR specific house catching fire are very low.

If there where as man "earths" as there are houses in your community there would be about twice as many of them hit by CMEs each year than by fires.




We should have about 18 hours warning in a best case scenario....which is likely to make no difference in the outcome.

Simply put, a Carrington level CME is one of the most likely disasters anyone on earth is going to be faced with, far more so than fire, flood, storm or tornado on average, and about as likely any one a city along the eastern coast being hit by a hurricane over a hundred year period.

Most of the 'normal' things people prep for are far less likely than the odds of a disastrous, civilization ending CME.

WWIII, EMP, Yellowstone, defensive gun use, bear attacks, great depressions and all the other stuff people talk about here are statistical fairytales in comparison.
I agree. When we discuss CME on this forum we aren't referring to common relatively low intensity solar flares. We are referring to Carrington level events. The sun puts out quite a few of such intensity but few hit the earth. All serious studies I'm acquainted with suggest similar odds as you have posted.

The good thing about a CME as opposed to a NEMP, is that much of our personal electronics will survive. Even most home solar systems. If they are damaged it's highly likely to be confined to the front end of converters and the panels will be fine. Home generators and such will not be damaged.

There is a slow but steady growth in improved protection being built into power systems in the US. Each year another several percent of critical power transmission systems are hardened. Industries like petroleum and gas refining is almost completely hardened. Many systems wouldn't even be effected if they weren't hardened. This is due to the relatively short transmission paths between generation and customer.
Quick reply to this message
The Following User Says Thank You to franklin For This Useful Post:
Old 01-07-2019, 06:38 AM
Herd Sniper Herd Sniper is offline
American fearmaker
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 14,198
Thanks: 17,586
Thanked 27,641 Times in 8,874 Posts
Default

What a lot of people fail to understand is that an issue like an EMP attack is an option, not a goal, that is used in conjunction with other options in an overall strategy of some kind. That strategy will normally be a part of a battle plan which will involve several groups of nations going to war with several other groups of nations. In other words it will again be the Allies versus the Communists or Axis powers.

If the Japanese could have pulled it off on December 7, 1941, when they attacked us at Pearl Harbor, it is possible, if they had the ability in those days, that they would have used an EMP attack then too. Think about it. I'm sure that they would have used an EMP attack in some fashion as part of an attack option just like we would have done too.

There are rumors circulating that just before our troops entered Baghdad all power was lost in that city "for some strange reason." Maybe we bombed their electrical system real hard. Maybe we hit their transformers. But rumors keep persisting that there was a brand new E-bomb used to devastate the Iraqi power system that locally supplied power to that city. Yep, an EMP bomb may have been used for the first time, on a limited basis, to shut down all local Iraqi communications and electricity.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-drop...b-on-iraqi-tv/

So the idea of using nuclear weapons to fry electronics is sort of old hat now. With the new E-bomb you generate a power charge that does the damage without using radiation. I look for more development of new or more electronic bombs to come out in the future that have specific frequencies to them that work in different ways on different targets. Take it from there.

Oh, to answer your question about how likely is an EMP to occur? As time passes, chances increase that it will happen one day to us. I look for North Korea, also known as the Norks, to do something stupid. I think that when it happens it will be done out of desperation because of a major internal problem like massive famine or Un has lost face and was embarrassed by something that some other nation did and he strikes at us to try to regain momentum or his pride.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Herd Sniper For This Useful Post:
Reply

Bookmarks

Tags
electric grid, emp, north korea, shtf, war



Quick Reply
Message:
Options

Register Now

In order to be able to post messages on the Survivalist Forum forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.
User Name:
Password
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.
Password:
Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.
Email Address:
Gender
Insurance
Please select your insurance company (Optional)

Log-in

Human Verification

In order to verify that you are a human and not a spam bot, please enter the answer into the following box below based on the instructions contained in the graphic.



Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:31 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Optimisation provided by DragonByte SEO (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2020 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
vBulletin Security provided by vBSecurity v2.2.2 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2020 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Copyright © Kevin Felts 2006 - 2015,
Green theme by http://www.themesbydesign.net