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Old 07-10-2011, 08:45 AM
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I stayed away from the forum for a few months hoping to reboot my mind and reprogram my mindset to not be quite so negative about our Country's, our World's, future. I know most fellow community members here could care less about the rest of the world, but unfortunately, we are all intrinsically tied together these days.

As the U.S. goes, so goes the world, and from where I am standing, regardless of how much I have hoped we'd pull out of this over the Spring, it just is not going to happen. The writing is on the wall ....

1) Too many investors are overly bullish about the stock market, yet there are absolutely no reasons to be bullish. None. Not one.
2) Even the false job growth has halted and is now heading in the opposite direction. Friends, we're really at 16% or worse right now, probably closer to 18%. (See CNS' latest claim of "real" unemployment numbers)
3) The last two years of modest growth was clearly artificial, propped-up by gov't spending. Even in my industry, the construction industry, the only things happening that were positives, were actually a series of negatives. Building and home owners were spending money restoring old, rather than building new. And we've realized some new business because of all the storms, the tornadoes, but that was at great cost to many families and private persons in the process.
4) Over leveraged in gov't and Corporate investments that'll never pay off. That money is gone.
5) Massive inequality between household and business income/power.
6) No competitive advantage, outside of our military, to stimulate real consumer/business growth (the "C" and "I" in GDP).
7) A gov't that is both corrupt and inept in doing the right thing. After all, our government has become a puppet, an extension, of Big Corporate America and the socialist liberal progressive far left wing. It's a poisonous combination of trying to please two demanding possessive mothers at the same time.
8) The Middle Class squeeze continues and no one is going to stop it at this point unfortunately.
9) A housing market that is a dumpster-fire-in-progress and only going to get worse. There's no putting it out anytime soon for obvious reasons.
10) Americans with too much debt, too little income and not enough skills to compete globally.
11) Too many derivative type investments and contracts that are hedging against market changes.
12) A large decline in wages/salaries among the middle class that is being outweighed by increasing costs of daily necessities, education costs and other services. There is no way to keep up at this point. It's almost too late to even slow it down by tightening of the proverbial belts.

Read the history books (as I have been doing for the past few months) and you immediately recognize the similarities between what we are experiencing now and what led up to the 1929 crash - matter of fact, it's far worse this time around. We've had chances to stop this. We decided to bailout AIG, GM and Chrysler and other Big Corp entities and watched helplessly as our money simply went to progressive socialist unions or back into Corp. America in the ways of bonuses, pay increases, benefits, etc. The "trigger" event, the one we have to expect is coming, is just around the corner. Usually, it's a massive decline on the overly bullish Wall St. market place. The "circuit breakers" (a halt of trading at 10%, 20% and 30% drops) won't stop it. It's coming. The infrastructure is too weak and the signs are there. This could very well be far worse than simply a double-dip recession. Chance are it'll be a full blown depression the next time around.

We're in for some very, very, tough years folks and don't think that it can't happen. It's already happening, we're simply sitting around waiting for some massive trigger event to click and it will become plainly evident to even the most die-hard ardent sheeple.

What might happen as a result?

1) Real unemployment over 30%
2) Brutal deflationary spiral
3) Mass bankruptcies, high and low on all levels.
4) Loss of all savings and retirement/pension funds
5) Massive defaults on loans of all kinds.
6) A stock market that could decline by 50% or more, again. But this time there will be no quick bounce-back.
7) Civil/World War as a "fix" for getting us out of it all over again, everywhere. Here, there, north and south and east and west of us. And listen, we're the bad guys in the eyes of the rest of the world. There are powers out there that want to see us knocked down for good this time.
8) The good thing that might come of this? A long-term "fix" by blowing up the current system of gov't and redistributing power back to the people and the middle class, where it belongs. How long that could take and how much pain could we go through? Who knows? It took WW II to get us out of this the first go around, but it did re-establish law & order to some extent and lead to a flurry of new American business enterprise with more competition and more opportunity.

As a country we've become very lazy, very entitlement oriented, very tainted by decades of academia laced socialist progressive brainwashing combined with corrupt leadership from our power hungry, ill-meaning, politicians on BOTH sides. Our two-party system is totally corrupt, totally outdated, totally self-destructive.

Heck, I tried to ignore it, kept hoping for the best, but it is just not happening. We're in a mess and the only, I mean the ONLY, chance we have is that the 2012 election brings us someone very special, someone who is capable of turning this thing around before we're totally gone. No matter what happens, I do not see us ever regaining our lead in the world that we enjoyed from the 40s thru the early 90s.

The problem is, I just do not see anyone on the horizon capable of getting the job done and overcoming the partisanship and vitriol that pervades our society at the moment. Too much poison has been introduced into the system. Too many people have been raised to hate the good parts of the old system, while adoring the bad parts of the new system.

Last edited by Gallo Pazzesco; 07-10-2011 at 10:19 AM..
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Old 07-10-2011, 08:53 AM
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Well said....

I am just so f-ing fed up with everything myself....I run a small business and could never get away with the schitt being pulled by guvco, etc...

The 'Bamster's going to get re-elected and we're going to be screwed
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Old 07-10-2011, 09:08 AM
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Yea, I laugh when I see the 9.9% unemployment. We are in S TX and we have our own business. It's supposed to be better here than most other places. Our business is less than 1/2 what it was in 2007. We have 1/2 the employees, by the end of this year, we will be forced to either buy another business or get bought there is no way for us to support overhead as small as we are. Where wil our employees find work? What will replace the 100% paid health insurance they get from us?
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Old 07-10-2011, 09:15 AM
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You've really summed it up. Have you seen the video "Collapse" featuring Mike Ruppert? There is a link in Youtube for this, rather long documentary. Eye-opening information for us, I believe. Another video that I think is profound is "Fall of the Republic". I'd like feedback from anyone who's seen these. Later, and good luck.
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Old 07-10-2011, 09:18 AM
223shootersc 223shootersc is online now
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you are correct Gallo, it is a very depressing state of affairs, but on a positive note welcome back to the front lines
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Old 07-10-2011, 09:27 AM
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Yes it is. Meanwhile the people and media is distracted by the Circus around the Debt Ceiling raise. Some facts: Our national Debt is aprox. 14.6 Trillion. Our National spending is about 1.3 Trillion higher than the Taxes bring in each year. The argument over raising the Debt ceiling is whether we should cut 4 trillion dollars and do this by spending cuts (Republicans) or by tax increases (Democrats). However the time period for this cut or increase money raising is 10 years (12 years President Obama). This is not doing a darn thing to correct the problem. It is just Political theater.

Both the left and the right are running around bad mouthing the other side and getting worked up over who should get the deck chairs on the US Titanic. It is all so much noise. The politicians are playing the people and as usual people are falling for it and lining up to blast the other party.

Frankly I see no way to avoid disaster. That is why I started to prep even though I find most of the prepper movement to be a bit odd. Sorry about that.
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Old 07-10-2011, 09:29 AM
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As a whole we need to reapply ourselves to being a productive society. No more I'm to good to dig a ditch or surfing the web instead finishing reports. Its from the ground up a borked society that doesnt actually produce anything but credit where its not due. I'll be fine I've grunted through far worse then this but I fear for the entitled. Gawd forbid a business owner with real assets and real credit doesnt have to compete against the inept bank funded daydreamers. I'm actually hoping it gets worse or we'll hit even harder then this when my son has my grandchildren.
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Old 07-10-2011, 09:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PSYOP Soldier View Post
Well said....

I am just so f-ing fed up with everything myself....I run a small business and could never get away with the schitt being pulled by guvco, etc...

The 'Bamster's going to get re-elected and we're going to be screwed

He'll get re-elected because the republicans will put some d-bag on the ticket. My choices are creepy Mormon, ross perot2.0, entitled soccer mom to lead the free world. I'm looking in to Huntsman more lately. He seems more educated, experienced, and personable.
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Old 07-10-2011, 09:46 AM
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No matter which party wins the money brokers control them both, People will never wise up. Only a select few even mention the Federal Reserve as a problem spot and it receives little or no attention. We are swirling round the drain and all most can think of is "I hope my party gets power back!" we'll be OK then. Just keep preparing and pray our sins of apathy have not condemned us all.
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Old 07-10-2011, 10:18 AM
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I was just in a similar thread and was saying people still think their candidates will save the day ignoring "The man behind the curtain". These Party lines were set up to divide and conquer the masses, us (Obummer , Democraps , Repukes , etc..). It's called "Hegelian dialectic" , and If you're not familiar with that term:

http://nord.twu.net/acl/dialectic.html

EDITED: Got a blue screen crash in the middle of my edit, wasn't wearing the tin foil hat But I digress, this is matrix we live in and it isn't holding up much longer.


And I always post this Carlin vid when I get riled up

http://youtu.be/hYIC0eZYEtI

----------------------------------------
V: People should not be afraid of their governments. Governments should be afraid of their people.

Last edited by OLDWarrior64; 07-10-2011 at 12:36 PM.. Reason: Forum copyright rules.
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Old 07-10-2011, 10:27 AM
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Well Vendetta77, I'll agree with you in spirit. At least if I have interpreted your post to mean that the people we see on the front lines of this mess are all puppets being controlled by some unknown, unseen power behind the scenes?

I've stated for a long time now that the real problem lies in who it is controlling this mess around the world. I know that some claim it to be George Soros. But I promise you, he's small potatoes in the overall scheme of things. Someone controls George Soros.

And I know it's often claimed that the Red Shield is behind all of this. The Rothschilds, the banks. But even that is unlikely as we're in such a mess right now even the Rothschilds stand to lose everything if things go badly. Especially given that they are no longer the secret organization behind The Fed and that, especially if things turn ugly and the shooting starts, it'll be the Rothschilds, and their ilk, who are hunted down and exterminated first and in short order.

The other point you make that I agree with totally and completely is the fact that we are all, everyone of us, complicit in this mess. We all allowed it to happen and it began a good 100 years ago in this country. The problem was that, on several key occasions I can think of off the top of my head in the 20s, the 40s & 50s, the 90s, and again in the last decade, we have let "them" get away with murder.

It's a mess. Best thing we can do at this point is to do exactly what most of us are doing. Prepare for individual/family survival through the tough times and then hold on for dear life.
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Old 07-10-2011, 10:28 AM
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Just like the 1930s, the only way out of the hole we have dug is to produce, mine, or grow something the rest of the world needs badly, and charge them a lot of money for it.

Just prior to WW2, we were growing food for the folks in Europe who were busy fighting.
Then we started producing equipment, munitions, and fuel.
During the war we completely changed ship building, oil refining, and aircraft design.

After the war we had the only manufacturing plants and refineries that had not been blown up. We had lots of debt, over twice the debt/GDP ratio of today, but we had an substantial market advantage. We sold our products around the world and paid down our debts.

What do we have today? Do we have factories, oil refineries, mines? Do we have skilled workers?

The only thing we have not screwed up is our farm land. America still has he most productive and most diverse farming region of any country. But, I don't see how selling corn and soybeans is going to get us out of debt.
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Old 07-10-2011, 10:35 AM
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Great post Gallo!
I agree with most of your remarks. I do have a question about "Brutal deflationary spiral". I suppose it is difficult for me to get a grasp of deflation. The population of the US is increasing briskly. Floods, unusual weather patterns, fuel costs, etc. are putting our basic food supply at risk. Thousands of acres of farmland are now flooded and thanks to BP much of the fishing areas in the Gulf are no longer productive. With so many people chasing so few goods and the dollar losing value, how can massive deflation occur? Thanks!
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Old 07-10-2011, 10:39 AM
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That's not really what dug us out of the hole in the 30s Hick.

What dug us out of the hole was home grown production for home grown good.

Most of what we sent overseas we never got paid for after WWII.

What fueled our massive growth post WWII was home and automobile production. Those two gave rise to massive growth in other industries such as timber/lumber and steel. All of that led to a boon in the medical industry as people ate better and strove to live longer through medical means rather than healthy living. At the same time the textile industry boomed to keep up with fashion demand. Our oil, coal and natural gas industry boomed to keep up with the car in every driveway, then two cars in every driveway, then three. And with the advent of the TV it brought modern marketing into every home and everyone was told they had to have 2,000 sq ft homes and fancy cars and now, two TVs, then three.

All the while it was pounded into our brains that everyone had to go to college if they wanted to experience the American dream. And once in college the liberal socialist progressive academia began to rail against the system that made it all possible in the first place. I call the 60s the birth of the radical apologists era where we are made to feel guilty for success in this country by the same people who were power hungry and greed motivated ... two attributes the hypocrites diatribed against via the leftist main stream media machine. More brainwashing if you will.

Now the chickens are coming home to roost and we've got a big bill to pay, a karma kickback if you will. And it ain't gonna be pretty.
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Old 07-10-2011, 10:42 AM
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http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/-over...ancial-crisis/ this is worth a look.. found it last night on GLP!
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Old 07-10-2011, 10:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gallo Pazzesco View Post
Well Vendetta77, I'll agree with you in spirit. At least if I have interpreted your post to mean that the people we see on the front lines of this mess are all puppets being controlled by some unknown, unseen power behind the scenes?

I've stated for a long time now that the real problem lies in who it is controlling this mess around the world. I know that some claim it to be George Soros. But I promise you, he's small potatoes in the overall scheme of things. Someone controls George Soros.

And I know it's often claimed that the Red Shield is behind all of this. The Rothschilds, the banks. But even that is unlikely as we're in such a mess right now even the Rothschilds stand to lose everything if things go badly. Especially given that they are no longer the secret organization behind The Fed and that, especially if things turn ugly and the shooting starts, it'll be the Rothschilds, and their ilk, who are hunted down and exterminated first and in short order.

The other point you make that I agree with totally and completely is the fact that we are all, everyone of us, complicit in this mess. We all allowed it to happen and it began a good 100 years ago in this country. The problem was that, on several key occasions I can think of off the top of my head in the 20s, the 40s & 50s, the 90s, and again in the last decade, we have let "them" get away with murder.

It's a mess. Best thing we can do at this point is to do exactly what most of us are doing. Prepare for individual/family survival through the tough times and then hold on for dear life.
Amen brother, you seem to have a grasp on this. The only point I'd like to add is that the Rothchilds/power elite have survived revolts before and come out on top with more resource control and power, and this time around our little blue/green ball is bit crowded. They are completely onboard. The oligarchy is staged for a move I believe, and everyone is busy wondering why "The Situation" has left the Jersey Shore cast.

The funny thing is , a post or two after I submit this will contain " Vote Obummer out 2012" or something to that effect. Thinking you still have a play on this chessboard and are not an unwitting pawn is a comfort people aren't willing to part with yet but will be soon enough.

You hit the nail on the head, we're all here for learning how to prepare period. So get ready folks, the shows nearing the big "Series Finale".

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Old 07-10-2011, 10:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vendetta77 View Post
...

The funny thing is , a post or two after I submit this will contain " Vote Obummer out 2012" or something to that effect. Thinking you still have a play on this chessboard and are not an unwitting pawn is a comfort people aren't willing to part with yet but will be soon enough.

...
Hey, we could chase our supposed leaders down and massacre them and all their family members like the Meso-American cultures did to their "Divine Rulers" when the crops failed.

People always want a scapegoat when things go blooiey.
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Old 07-10-2011, 10:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by loadthedog View Post
Great post Gallo!
I agree with most of your remarks. I do have a question about "Brutal deflationary spiral". I suppose it is difficult for me to get a grasp of deflation. The population of the US is increasing briskly. Floods, unusual weather patterns, fuel costs, etc. are putting our basic food supply at risk. Thousands of acres of farmland are now flooded and thanks to BP much of the fishing areas in the Gulf are no longer productive. With so many people chasing so few goods and the dollar losing value, how can massive deflation occur? Thanks!
I wondered when someone was going to catch that loadthedog. Good question - thanks for asking.

See, when I type "deflation" I am referring to the market, not goods and services.

I am referring to a deflation of the stock market caused by artificially low interest rates where, when it collapses, debtors are forced to sell all they can, even their best assets, to raise cash and satisfy creditors.

Even if most price declines are due to forced selling, that selling in turn will decrease the total value of investments, which will curtail individuals’ and companies’ economic activity, which leads to an economic contraction, which will stress the issuers of such bonds to the point that they cannot make interest payments or return principal.

Despite this description I want to make it clear laodthedog, that a deflationary spiral is not linear. When the debt burden becomes too great for the economy to support and the trend reverses, reductions in lending, spending and production cause debtors to earn less money ... we're witnessing that now, agreed? Defaults rise because they can't pay off their debts. And I am talking about a much larger scale default that simply American families. I'm talking big business, spread wide and all encompassing. Default and the fear of default exacerbate the new trend in the mindset, the psychology if you will, which in turn causes creditors to reduce lending further, if that is possible. And the timing right now is bad, really bad, right at a time when the credit markets were beginning to ease just a bit.

Just as the previous boom fed on optimism, and nothing else, a deflationary spiral feeds on pessimism. The resulting cascade of debt liquidation often results in deflationary depression. To raise cash to pay off loans, borrowers will desperately try to sell everything that’s not nailed down, including stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, even art and collectibles. Prices for these assets plummet ... thus, deflation.

Think more in terms of the housing market if you will loadthedog. How much have we all lost in terms of our largest investment, our home values?

The writing has been on the wall for several years now. When major world stock indexes turned down in late 2007 followed by commodities throughout 2008, it became obvious a deflationary spiral had begun. Did we bounce-back to some degree? Yes but for reasons I already mentioned. In the meantime, this next time around, it will be far far far more difficult to pull out of it.


I excerpt a MIT professor's take on the spiral we are in for support of my claim:

Quote:
Originally Posted by excerpted
The other view is that while deflation can be a real danger, that danger arises less because of an inherent deflationary bias than as the potential consequence of policy mistakes; the general idea is that once mistaken policies have allowed deflation to get started, expectations of continuing deflation can be self-reinforcing. And once the economy is in such a deflationary "death spiral", the story goes, it can be very hard to get it out again.

http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/spiral.html
I can only interpret his reference to "mistaken policies" to mean, that in the case of "the other view" they feel that whether or not certain policies actually contributed to market deflation or not, it is the perception of these policies that leads to an overall negative, or pessimistic, outlook and that once the spiral begins it is next to impossible to stop until a singularity of sorts is reached.

I also note that Japan has been experiencing this for some time, although, thanks to the U.S. it has been more of a slow spiral. With recent catastrophes and the U.S.'s inability to bail Japan out because of our own inherent problems these days, I expect the spiral to pick-up in intensity exponentially in coming months.
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Old 07-10-2011, 10:58 AM
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its like the book/movie the emporers new clothes.. ya know where the whole kingdom helped make the emporers new clothes and he was walking down the street showing them off and a little kid eclaimed that the emporer was naked, the entire kingdom fantasized what his new clothes looked like.
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Old 07-10-2011, 11:07 AM
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Thanks Gallo! Very helpful post!
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