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View Poll Results: 100,000 dead by the end of May?
Yes 51 40.48%
No 39 30.95%
Undecided 3 2.38%
100,000 is a lowball number 33 26.19%
Voters: 126. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-21-2020, 08:23 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aceoky View Post
Well, the "official numbers" have us right at 90,000 as of this AM......
5/18/20: 90,000
5/21/20: 95,000+
5/24/20: ???
. . .
As a side note to skeptics, the MSM mentioned that Brazil, that hotbed of conspiracies, has reached the critical point when facilities are overwhelmed by the "non-existent" pandemic. (And I doubt that the government is paying hospitals to list all fatalities as COVID-19) Films of mass burials are obviously staged. [sarcasm off]
. . .
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/brazil/
fatalities:
18,894 - May 20 (doubled in 12 days)
9,188 - May 7 (doubled in 11 days)
4,543 - Apr 27 (doubled in 10 days)
2,141- Apr 17
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Old 05-21-2020, 09:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jetgraphics View Post
5/18/20: 90,000
5/21/20: 95,000+
5/24/20: ???
. . .
As a side note to skeptics, the MSM mentioned that Brazil, that hotbed of conspiracies, has reached the critical point when facilities are overwhelmed by the "non-existent" pandemic. (And I doubt that the government is paying hospitals to list all fatalities as COVID-19) Films of mass burials are obviously staged. [sarcasm off]
. . .
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/brazil/
fatalities:
18,894 - May 20 (doubled in 12 days)
9,188 - May 7 (doubled in 11 days)
4,543 - Apr 27 (doubled in 10 days)
2,141- Apr 17
Democrats treating it as a given that we're going to reach 100,000
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Old 05-21-2020, 10:30 AM
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Well according to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus website as well as the Coronavirus dashboard website they both are saying 93,806 as of today. We have 10 days until the end of the month. So I believe we'll hit the 100,000 mark.

I was watching my local news this morning and got sidetracked for a few minutes and Good Morning America came on and they were saying we had 110,000 dead. I checked both websites. Nope not yet, they lied out of their asses. I then turned it back over to OAN.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map

https://ncov2019.live/data
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Old 05-21-2020, 10:56 AM
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As we open up, the tole will rise. Lets hope the summer is hot and it helps control the spread.
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Old 05-21-2020, 11:52 AM
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Lockdown was not sold as prevention of infection ever, it was sold as slowdown of infection to not overwelm facilities here. Period. It has done so at a very high economic price. Denial has cost densely populated blue state a higher price, compounded by thier foolish polices afterwards.

https://dailycaller.com/2020/05/19/a...ties-timeline/

Its a false narrative to attempt to change what is now history, a ploy that none of us are obligated to ackowledge in any way now. Assuming such is strictly on that person and thier agenda.

Will more people die? Of course, virology 101. Will that number be 100k by June 1? Who cares? Dead will still be dead. Was the curve flattened? Yes, in areas that locked down immediately. The rest is political vulturism and will be subject to political costs. Thats a bill owed by worthless politicians and only due them personally.

My only question is how this whole debacle will play out on a History Chsnnel episode in 10 years.
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Old 05-21-2020, 12:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rural Buckeye Guy View Post
Lockdown was not sold as prevention of infection ever, it was sold as slowdown of infection to not overwelm facilities here. Period. It has done so at a very high economic price. Denial has cost densely populated blue state a higher price, compounded by thier foolish polices afterwards.

https://dailycaller.com/2020/05/19/a...ties-timeline/

Its a false narrative to attempt to change what is now history, a ploy that none of us are obligated to ackowledge in any way now. Assuming such is strictly on that person and thier agenda.

Will more people die? Of course, virology 101. Will that number be 100k by June 1? Who cares? Dead will still be dead. Was the curve flattened? Yes, in areas that locked down immediately. The rest is political vulturism and will be subject to political costs. Thats a bill owed by worthless politicians and only due them personally.

My only question is how this whole debacle will play out on a History Chsnnel episode in 10 years.
Watch Mexico and Brazil. Brazil is just on the verge of being overwhelmed. Mexico may follow. Both are likely way undercounted because their medical systems aren't as good and they have large areas like the slums in Brazil with no ability to do proper accounting.

That could be the US in the fall/winter of this year. But I think people are smarter now and we don't need a nationwide response like the first one. A more localized response will probably do.

There seems to be a difference in age groups down south too, with many in their 40s and younger getting seriously ill. Mostly men too. It's probably a cultural and socio-economic thing. Like how in my state 47% of the cases are Hispanic even though they are ~10% of the population.

They are burying a lot of people in those countries right now. Not to the mass grave point, but getting there. They are still individual graves, but they pre-dug a lot of them in anticipation of filling the holes.

https://nypost.com/2020/05/20/sao-pa...s-coronavirus/
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Old 05-21-2020, 10:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rural Buckeye Guy View Post
Lockdown was not sold as prevention of infection ever, it was sold as slowdown of infection to not overwelm facilities here. Period. It has done so at a very high economic price. Denial has cost densely populated blue state a higher price, compounded by thier foolish polices afterwards.

https://dailycaller.com/2020/05/19/a...ties-timeline/

Its a false narrative to attempt to change what is now history, a ploy that none of us are obligated to ackowledge in any way now. Assuming such is strictly on that person and thier agenda.

Will more people die? Of course, virology 101. Will that number be 100k by June 1? Who cares? Dead will still be dead. Was the curve flattened? Yes, in areas that locked down immediately. The rest is political vulturism and will be subject to political costs. Thats a bill owed by worthless politicians and only due them personally.

My only question is how this whole debacle will play out on a History Chsnnel episode in 10 years.
The government and media sold a lot of things in the wrong way. Actually, pretty much every positive thing they've done they've ****ed up the rationalizing trying to 'prevent panic' instead of just being straight forward and making a sound argument. Doesn't mean the real reasoning wasn't valid.

Plus they keep digging themselves deeper and the previous lie leads to more lies to save face.

For example masks. Instead of "Masks work, but we don't have enough for everyone. We need your charity to ensure that the people who need them the most are the most likely to get them, and we need people to conserve and use as few of them as they can until supply catches up." it became "Masks don't work."

Now it's "Masks don't stop virus from coming in. Only going out. And the better masks won't work for you because it takes years of training to wear them." instead of "Masks work. Both ways. They are the best means of defense we have. They're the primary difference between which countries get overwhelmed and which ones don't. The better filtration the mask has the less likely you are to get sick or get other people sick. Here's a small info-graphic on how to wear a mask effectively and stretch your supply."

Same with quarantine and avoiding people. It was never going to be 2 weeks. No one who wasn't mentally handicapped could think it would be 2 weeks. Go back to when this started and all of us had posts telling people that. They were lying to people downplaying the virus trying to 'prevent panic' just like they have from the beginning. It has to be a permanent adaption. It's only a matter of how much to throttle it in which locations.

Government doesn't want to tell you bad things. They have downplayed this virus and downplayed the needed responses from the very beginning. No one's exaggerating anything. People just believe their lies downplaying the virus but don't believe their lies downplaying the needed measures to control it.

Viruses have exponential growth. We're starting from 30k per day now, not 15. That means that if we go back to normal now it's going to take the same amount of time to go to 120k cases per day as it did to go from 15 to 60. And you won't know it's increasing for a month or two, then anything you do to try to slow it down again will take another couple months. We're no longer dealing with a slow grass fire. We're sitting on a napalm bomb.
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Old 05-22-2020, 03:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Colt View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rural Buckeye Guy View Post
Lockdown was not sold as prevention of infection ever, it was sold as slowdown of infection to not overwelm facilities here. Period. It has done so at a very high economic price. Denial has cost densely populated blue state a higher price, compounded by thier foolish polices afterwards.

https://dailycaller.com/2020/05/19/a...ties-timeline/

Its a false narrative to attempt to change what is now history, a ploy that none of us are obligated to ackowledge in any way now. Assuming such is strictly on that person and thier agenda.

Will more people die? Of course, virology 101. Will that number be 100k by June 1? Who cares? Dead will still be dead. Was the curve flattened? Yes, in areas that locked down immediately. The rest is political vulturism and will be subject to political costs. Thats a bill owed by worthless politicians and only due them personally.

My only question is how this whole debacle will play out on a History Chsnnel episode in 10 years.
The government and media sold a lot of things in the wrong way. Actually, pretty much every positive thing they've done they've ****ed up the rationalizing trying to 'prevent panic' instead of just being straight forward and making a sound argument. Doesn't mean the real reasoning wasn't valid.

Plus they keep digging themselves deeper and the previous lie leads to more lies to save face.

For example masks. Instead of "Masks work, but we don't have enough for everyone. We need your charity to ensure that the people who need them the most are the most likely to get them, and we need people to conserve and use as few of them as they can until supply catches up." it became "Masks don't work."

Now it's "Masks don't stop virus from coming in. Only going out. And the better masks won't work for you because it takes years of training to wear them." instead of "Masks work. Both ways. They are the best means of defense we have. They're the primary difference between which countries get overwhelmed and which ones don't. The better filtration the mask has the less likely you are to get sick or get other people sick. Here's a small info-graphic on how to wear a mask effectively and stretch your supply."

Same with quarantine and avoiding people. It was never going to be 2 weeks. No one who wasn't mentally handicapped could think it would be 2 weeks. Go back to when this started and all of us had posts telling people that. They were lying to people downplaying the virus trying to 'prevent panic' just like they have from the beginning. It has to be a permanent adaption. It's only a matter of how much to throttle it in which locations.

Government doesn't want to tell you bad things. They have downplayed this virus and downplayed the needed responses from the very beginning. No one's exaggerating anything. People just believe their lies downplaying the virus but don't believe their lies downplaying the needed measures to control it.

Viruses have exponential growth. We're starting from 30k per day now, not 15. That means that if we go back to normal now it's going to take the same amount of time to go to 120k cases per day as it did to go from 15 to 60. And you won't know it's increasing for a month or two, then anything you do to try to slow it down again will take another couple months. We're no longer dealing with a slow grass fire. We're sitting on a napalm bomb.
Great post.
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Old 05-22-2020, 04:24 AM
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I don’t trust any information out there that is promoted by the Lame Stream Media. The TV media is 99% full of crap at all times.

Furthermore I can’t help but to believe that the Trump Hating Deep State is completely responsible for the purposeful release of this virus in a desperate attempt to influence the 2020 election.
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Old 05-22-2020, 11:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kev View Post
This is a prediction thread...
Please, and for the love of GOD, let's remember we are talking about peoples lives, friends, and family. This is not a lighthearted topic. We are in the midst of a Global Pandemic that we may be looking at a turning point on.
The lockdown worked. But, now it is lifted in many states.

Looks like 100K is going to happen in the next 2 or 3 days.

But, as Colt stated, this 100K deaths stems from only 1 known case exactly 4 months ago. The United States is now looking at 1,147,627 people currently infected.

In 4 more months, with no lockdown...

Last edited by Sprig; 05-22-2020 at 09:56 PM..
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Old 05-22-2020, 06:25 PM
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But, as Colt stated, this 100K deaths stems from only 1 known case exactly 4 months ago.
Not true.

Washington state old folks home.
Cruise ships.
Europe and China to New York.

https://www.mountsinai.org/about/new...-us-sources-pr

Quote:
..that the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in New York City predominately arose through untracked transmission between the United States and Europe, with limited evidence to support any direct introductions from China, where the virus originated, or other locations in Asia.
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Old 05-22-2020, 07:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Sprig View Post
But, as Colt stated, this 100K deaths stems from only 1 known case exactly 4 months ago.

Lagnar: Not true.

Washington state old folks home.
Cruise ships.
Europe and China to New York.

https://www.mountsinai.org/about/new...-us-sources-pr

Quote:
..that the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in New York City predominately arose through untracked transmission between the United States and Europe, with limited evidence to support any direct introductions from China, where the virus originated, or other locations in Asia.

Workquick: So, call it started with a hundred active cases. Wow really compares to A MILLION ACTIVE CASES. Anyway, we'll reach or surpass 100,000 deaths by the end of the month. The lock down will go away, and we will see what comes.
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Old 05-22-2020, 09:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Colt View Post
Viruses have exponential growth. We're starting from 30k per day now, not 15. That means that if we go back to normal now it's going to take the same amount of time to go to 120k cases per day as it did to go from 15 to 60. And you won't know it's increasing for a month or two, then anything you do to try to slow it down again will take another couple months. We're no longer dealing with a slow grass fire. We're sitting on a napalm bomb.
It's tough to know how it's going to play out right now. Fatality rate looks pretty close to 1% instead of the original estimate of 3.4%. Of course we also aren't sure if testing is only capturing 1/5 of the positive cases like that 1% would show or even less, which i've seen in some antibody estimates. Of course if they're basing total population antibody %s off a voluntary, paid antibody test, they need a new lesson in science and statistics.

My date to see how my state of Colorado is playing out is what next fridays numbers start to look like. Lockdown was lifted 2 weeks ago and people started to ignore it a couple days before that, so if we don't see a change in slope at almost 3 1/2 weeks from that date then there might be either more herd immunity or a lower CFR. I'm appalled by the lack of hard science and research that's being released by the states. There should be much more concrete evidence for/against closures and a more fluid model for how to implement them. They should be able to adjust guidelines for specific areas weekly instead of just blanket rules for 2 months at a time for a large area. It's tough to get people to follow any suggestions or guidelines when noone trusts they'll ever lift them.
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Old 05-22-2020, 10:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Lagnar View Post
Not true.

Washington state old folks home.
Cruise ships.
Europe and China to New York.
For context, I did not include the earlier deaths that were later determined by exhuming bodies.

The first United States case that hit the media was known on 22JAN20, at that current point in time. Context matters, and I'm not going to write a book or build a time machine to get a real-time screen grab.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ricans-by-day/

Oh looky! I also can find a link that says what I want it to! Because, if it's on the internet it must be true.

It is this simple, there was 1 known case in the United States at that point in time. Now there are over 1 million active cases, and nearly 100K dead. And, the lockdown was keeping the transmission rate down.

What happens if instead of just 1 person getting off of an airplane, instead 1 million people step off of an airplane? And, now the lockdown is being lifted. What happens in regards to the United States COVID numbers 4 months from now?

I'm going to guess that it won't be over.

Last edited by Sprig; 05-22-2020 at 11:09 PM.. Reason: added United States
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Old 05-22-2020, 10:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by workquik View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sprig View Post
But, as Colt stated, this 100K deaths stems from only 1 known case exactly 4 months ago.

Lagnar: Not true.

Washington state old folks home.
Cruise ships.
Europe and China to New York.

https://www.mountsinai.org/about/new...-us-sources-pr

Quote:
..that the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in New York City predominately arose through untracked transmission between the United States and Europe, with limited evidence to support any direct introductions from China, where the virus originated, or other locations in Asia.

Workquick: So, call it started with a hundred active cases. Wow really compares to A MILLION ACTIVE CASES. Anyway, we'll reach or surpass 100,000 deaths by the end of the month. The lock down will go away, and we will see what comes.
People are confused because it was Trump who said that there was only one infected guy who flew in from China, and that "we" whoever "we" are had the problem under control. You really can't trust anything on MSM if the content is related to something the "Fearless Leader" has said. Bet he enjoys how when he says something stupid and the MSM reports it, he can convince his minions that they shouldn't believe that he said it because it was reported by the "lame stream media." Some folks are just natural born followers.
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Old 05-22-2020, 11:09 PM
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Winter will come.
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Old 05-23-2020, 12:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JD1985 View Post
It's tough to know how it's going to play out right now. Fatality rate looks pretty close to 1% instead of the original estimate of 3.4%. Of course we also aren't sure if testing is only capturing 1/5 of the positive cases like that 1% would show or even less, which i've seen in some antibody estimates. Of course if they're basing total population antibody %s off a voluntary, paid antibody test, they need a new lesson in science and statistics.

My date to see how my state of Colorado is playing out is what next fridays numbers start to look like. Lockdown was lifted 2 weeks ago and people started to ignore it a couple days before that, so if we don't see a change in slope at almost 3 1/2 weeks from that date then there might be either more herd immunity or a lower CFR. I'm appalled by the lack of hard science and research that's being released by the states. There should be much more concrete evidence for/against closures and a more fluid model for how to implement them. They should be able to adjust guidelines for specific areas weekly instead of just blanket rules for 2 months at a time for a large area. It's tough to get people to follow any suggestions or guidelines when noone trusts they'll ever lift them.
Current Case Fatality Rate in the United States is 21.5%

Dead + Recovered = Resolved
96,007 + 350,135 = 446,142

Dead / Resolved * 100 = Case Fatality Rate
96,007 / 446,142 * 100 = 21.5%

When they tell you 3.4%, or 1%, or whatever, that's after they take the objective documented CFR and then make a Wild Ass Guess at how many undiagnosed cases there. You're then taking the WAG and then tossing another WAG on top of it. Even the 1% estimate assumes that for every 1 patient who gets tested there are 20 patients who get the disease and never get sick enough to be tested. That would require 33,630,114 people to have contracted the disease so far. Over 10% of the population.
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Old 05-23-2020, 12:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Colt View Post
Current Case Fatality Rate in the United States is...

When they tell you 3.4%, or 1%, or whatever, that's after they take the objective documented CFR and then make a Wild Ass Guess at how many undiagnosed cases there...
Colt, welcome to reality; are you sure you didn't want to take the blue pill?

Got to say that having others agree with me on the numbers makes me feel ... off track.

I knew my initial calculations were high due to the cases localized in the WA state Life Care Center nursing home; didn't mean my math was wrong for that population. And, at that point in time, there was no other data to know if it would be consistent with other age groups, but other bugs have tended to affect the elderly worse and there still remains no publicly provided data to suggest otherwise.

The situation is still fairly clear where I am at. Thanks to your posts, I think my next store run is going to clear out the popcorn isle. That should confuse the masses...

Last edited by Sprig; 05-23-2020 at 12:53 AM.. Reason: kant spill
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Old 05-23-2020, 01:01 AM
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Hummmm.... I'm out of popcorn.

(I just mean the glass jar I keep some handy in, I'll refill it from a larger container of kernals tomorrow.)

Where do y'all get y'alls from? I was passing an Amish store years ago and bought bags for <$0.50/lb.
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Old 05-23-2020, 01:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Nomad, 2nd View Post
Hummmm.... I'm out of popcorn.

(I just mean the glass jar I keep some handy in, I'll refill it from a larger container of kernals tomorrow.)

Where do y'all get y'alls from? I was passing an Amish store years ago and bought bags for <$0.50/lb.
Cash & carry (Smartfood stores now) $7.49, 12.5lb bags @ our local. Looks like some of there stores may carry 25 & 50lb bags even cheaper, but 12.5lbs makes a lot!

They also carry “movie butter” toppings & such, which we haven’t tried, but may.

Cash & Carry tout themselves as restaurant supply/near wholesale, but as always, it’s good to know your pricing/unit cost. Many things are decent values there, however some not so much. Some things are excellent value tho.

For folks without Cash&Carry chainstore nearby (seems they’re mostly Montana westwards), mayhaps there’s similar “restaurant supply” type places around.
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