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Spread of Pandemics

16K views 122 replies 45 participants last post by  Gordon Randal 
#1 ·
How long would it take for a pandemic to sweep the USA today. Let's pick a pandemic like the Spanish Flu. What's your research say?
 
#91 ·
TB may be the bug of choice. The Russian prison system is the breeding system for multiple drug resistant TB. There is a woman in New York who is a carrier for multiple drug resistant TB. She enters a hospital with TB, is given a drug program to the point where she is is no longer able to pass the TB to others and is discharged with additional meds to cure her which she sells on the street and the cycle is repeated. From news reports a court in New York issued an order for the hospital to hold her until she was cured which meant that the people of New York had to pay for her to be in the hospital for over a year.

Additionally, there was a report from South Africa of a man with TB that was totally resistant to all anti TB drugs.

With more and more antibiotic drugs being used we are seeing more bacteria that are resistant to antibiotics. I was put in the hospital 5 years ago with a blood infection caused by a bad Gall Bladder. The antibiotic they put me on was so strong that I got one dose every 24 hours. I was so sick I was not allowed to eat anything from Sunday night to Wednesday night. All told I lost over 25 pounds from my bad Gall Bladder.

There are a lot of unknowns when dealing with diseases and all we can really do is to keep hygiene in mind ALWAYS. Stay safe.
 
#93 ·
I make my own colloidal silver and Have a significant reserve of cider vinegar and honey which are all antibacterial.
Alcohol is another necessity along with chlorine and the disinfectants ,UV lights are also a significant tool in airborne disease control. While working in medical prosthetic manufacturing UV lights were at every entrance of every building, obviously could not sea with bacteria under clothing but what came from out doors was a threat dealt with significantly.
The place i worked I was allowed to bring home my tyvex/paper/plastic jump suit And I put them away in the event it became necessary. Radio active fall out, volcanic dust, pandemic, or dealing with dead bodies or infectious disease.
Dealing with the dead, deceased or not is going to be a big issue, and remaining sterile is going to be a challenge.
 
#96 ·
The idea that isolation isn’t a defense against an epidemic is silly.

Even if you are NOT completely isolated , few bugs will be so contagious that a single contact will ensure infection. So if you reduce your potential contacts by 50% you reduce your odds of infection.

Other things like hand washing , face masks , etc can also help.

In 1918 1/3 of the people who where alive got infected with the Spanish flu. Currently flu infection rates for the USA are 5-20%. So not that much better.

In 1918 10%-20% of those infected died. This number would likely
Be lower today since we have more options at least in the USA for treatment including anti virals.

Look an extra 5% of the people dying from a contagious disease would be horrible and cause major social and exemplified unrest. But it wouldn’t be like 1918.
 
#97 ·
I am not sure if they would haul us in to provide food for the postal workers or not. Odds are strong they would pull a "Harvey" and just appropriate our supplies.

If that is the case we are absolutely camping out at home. I get my psych meds on a 3 month refill so I would be good for a while. I have plenty of people food, cat food, cat litter.

I learned a lot about cross-contamination when I was a little girl. I had very frequent pink eye infections due to the use of an eye patch. I learned pretty early on I could not touch the bad eye and then the good one, I would spread the infection. When I was 10 my parents almost died from a salmonella infection they got eating out. I learned a lot about food safety and more about cross-contamination. Add a couple of food safety courses I am pretty careful.

I don't sanitize the shopping cart but I will get one from outside in the sun which is a natural disinfectant.

My husband burned his leg last week and I have been treating it. I am very careful about cleaning my hands before and after touching him.

I would not, if at all possible, be outside riding public transit if we had a pandemic. Many of the paratransit clients are very ill and vulnerable to infection, they're going to get sick and spread it all over the fleet like wildfire.

Cabs will be just as bad.

The bus will not be much better.
 
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#101 ·
Even in those high density slum pits in Monrovia, everyone didn't die of Ebola though cases occurred there.

Then there were those apartment buildings in Hong Kong [?] that spread sars via the drains. [of was that a nasty flu -- brain worn out over this weekend].

Whatever plague that hit Athens in BC whatever didn't kill everyone [probably didn't even infect everyone]. Believe about a third of the population died.

The Black Death ran though major cities. Dense populations. Minimal medical skills. Minimal hygiene. And not everyone got it or died from it [though those that caught it generally died].

The diseases that caused a major population drop post Columbus are generally calculated to finish off 80 to better than 90 percent of the virgin indigeous population. That required multiple diseases: small pox, measles, TB, mumps, and so on, essentially striking at once or in fast sequence. But in the large cities of the Americas during the conquest everyone didn't die and that was often under war conditions.

Families used to have signs posted on their front doors if there was polio, small pox, measles, in the house. We always think of that as single family homes. But it included duplexes, apartments, and so on. And if they hadn't had previous contact they generally didn't get sick.

I had all my relatives on both sides of the family catch the 1918 flu -- and none of them died from it. Did have relatives die from other things in other years. Typhoid. Pneuminia. And so on. Had a relative catch polio. [probably a lot more did -- polio often presents as just a 'summer cold'].

*****
Yet, massive disease events causes major cultural, economic and/or historical changes. The Black Death. The Athens plague.
 
#106 ·
Yes, you can be immunized for bacteria. Perussis (whooping cough), Tetanus, Cholera, Typhus, the Plague (Yersenia pestis)....there are a goodly number of bacteria we get routinely immunized against.

And yes, some of us did get vaccinated for the plague while wearing the pickle suit. It wasn't a routine vaccine - I got it when I was alerted to go to Africa for an earthquake support mission. Didn't wind up going, but got the vaccines "just in case."

There are a lot we can't be immunized against, because they have a whole bunch of bacteria in their family (E. coli is one example. There are over 300 different serotypes of E. coli - only one causes real problems. The rest are beneficial, and necessary to have in your bowels.)
 
#105 · (Edited)
We still have the plague in this country. It general kills some folks every year. Generally not the pneumonic version -- but that one pops up occassionally too.

General calculated death rate from the plague in Europe [calculated over 100 to 200 years was 30% to 40%]. For modern folks who get to modern medicine it is less; but plague still pops up worldwise [a few cases near/in the Ebola hit region last month]. Still runs around +30% death rate if you don't get good, fast care.

Fortunately, except for the pneuomic plague, you just have to be on the watch fleas [and dead rats/mice lying around].


***********
JLeeS1983I remember seeing something about researchers studying groups of people that survived the plague unharmed and they all had certain DNA markers in common that others didn't have. The were thinking they were highly resistant to it. They also found that their descendants had a generic mutation afterwards that they think made them immune. They were planning on trying to test that theory, but i don't know how far that got.
It wasn't 'all' it was that some DNA genes had a higher appearance ratio. There is some still general mutterances about that and the pestis involvement.

This genetic theory developed when some medical folks noticed that a few people, despite exposure, did not seem to catch HIV. And if they caught it, had such low levels of the HIV virus they didn't get sick; or got sick then better [with or without the anti HIV drugs] as opposed to dying from AIDS.

After case numbers like that grew, they noticed they were white men from northern Europe. Someone tossed in the idea that perhaps there had been some positive genetic selection in regards to the plague pestis way back when. I.e. some relative who had that gene and was exposed to/got the plague either didn't get it or survived because of some positive aspect of that gene. Thus the gene was selected for [and it is NOT that common among northern Europeans, just higher than other population groups].

Believe they have figured out the actual gene [if I am getting any of this wrong, someone more up on the data, please correct me]. So you could get tested for it, if you wanted.

Now, the plague has been pretty much EVERYWHERE in the Old World [developed on the steppes plains or there about -- think Huns and Mongol hoards] and had multiple waves everywhere. China, India, the Mediterrianian, etc. have probably had more exposures than northern Europeans. They may have undergone other positive gene selections that no one has figured out yet. This gene stuff is new.


****************

puttsterUsed to be, in the service you'd get a shot for Plague. What was that, I wonder? Can you be immunized for bacteria?
I think you are thinking of Smallpox vaccination. I had it [the smallpox vaccine] as I was an Army brat going to Germany in 1958.

Still hope it is working even mildly should someone decide to unvault some of those smallpox reserves.

The 'theory' behind the gene involved with HIV [virus] and the pestis plague [bacteria] is that it amps up the persons immune system to better fight off both infections. If they have figured out the correct gene, and it does amp up the immune system, I'd suspect that carriers are also better at fighting off other diseases; perhaps down to the common cold.

**** [As a personal aside about this amping up the immune system, I also have wondered if this gene may have a part in the autoimmune illnesses that also exist.]
 
#113 ·
..Well, Sir, you certainly Win the 'Most Prescient Thread of 2019' Award, at least.. :)

..and 'Lava' takes it for 2020 (thus-far..) for having started the 'Big Thread' / ringing the bell, earliest (?) on it all.. And Lol on the 'irony of his screen-name' considering the thread is edging up on 18k posts and well-over 400 pages.. :D:

Posting to track.. :thumb:
jd
 
#114 ·
Some of us that commented on this thread did pretty good on knowledge me so, so. I was way off on some of my ideas. But I learned quite a bit. I think that the middle age concept of not letting the plague ships into port worked. Brutal but worked. Then the next big lesson. Population Density. To self isolate you have to have distance as far as possible. That means low population density. Compare say Alaska stats or Montana stats to NY State stats. Etc.
 
#115 ·
Great thread, Gulcher. But how did you know?:D:

I don't know much about the Spanish flu but will offer some general info.

One of the key factors in a pandemic is the method of transmission. Airborne transmission means the disease floats around in the air. So anyone in the same room (or bus or plane) can be exposed to the disease.
The current virus is spread by droplet transmission. This disease doesn't float around in the air but is does persist for a while outside of the body. So if you get coughed on or touch something that has been coughed on you can be exposed to the disease.

So for an airborne disease one sick person can infect the 200 other people in a plane on one trip. These 200 people can then go and infect more rooms or planes or buses full of people. This can result in millions being infected in a very short time.
The current virus can also spread rapidly but not as rapidly as an airborne disease. One person can cough and spread the virus all around a room. Everyone who touches something in this room that has been coughed on can then get sick and go and spread the disease by coughing on things. Also the room is still contaminated after the first sick person leaves so more people can become sick over a period of time from the same person.

Another key point is the time between a sick person being able to spread the disease and when they show symptoms.
Generally if someone gets sick (shows symptoms) they stay home and go to bed. So even though they can spread the disease it doesn't spread much because they are at home not going near anyone else.
But if they are producing virus and don't feel sick then they will continue to go shopping, go to work, etc. So the disease continues to spread until they get sick enough to stay home.

Also diseases that kill quickly limit the spread. If a disease is fatal in three days then there is only a short time for the sick person to spread the disease.

The current coronavirus is what is called 'novel'. It is new. No-one has ever caught this virus before. So no-one has any pre-existing immunity to it.
Diseases like Spanish flu aren't as big a problem because people have been exposed before and survived. People who were very susceptible have already died. Everyone who survived had some sort of resistance to it. So if it ever blows up again there is an amount of resistance against it already in the population. This can help to slow spread.

So the worst case disease has high mortality, spreads rapidly, persists outside the body, takes a while before people die, lets people spread the disease before they get really sick and is new.


A bit more info for the member who asked about catching diseases through the eyes.
Viruses are very specific. The current virus will bond with human cells which have a suitable bonding site. Cells with this bonding site also occur in dogs which is why you will see reports of dogs testing positive for this virus.
Generally these cells are found in a person's nose and throat. This is why touching your face is a bad idea. If your hands have touched something contaminated by the virus, touching your mouth or nose puts the virus near your nose and throat. Just having the virus on your hands doesn't mean you will catch the disease. The virus can't bond with your skin.

So if a virus can bond with cells in the eyes or travel in the body to cells with a suitable bonding site then; yes, you can catch diseases through the eyes. Generally you will most likely catch them through the mouth or nose because this is a great way for diseases to get inside of you. They have a whole bunch of different cells available to bond with; mouth, nose, throat, lung, intestine, etc.
 
#116 ·
Well thanks DU but being as it is a manmade virus, I really don't think the experts have a handle on this, about 2% accuracy rate probably for the experts. They all keep contradicting themselves. I have read that the virus is alive for up to 3hrs in the air, and the cdc says they found viable virus 17 days after the cruise ship docked in LA still alive in the cabins. This is not a flu.
Now when I started this thread last year it was to learn about how pandemic's spread and how quickly they could spread. I think we found this out in spades.
I still think that being someplace with low population density is your best bet in a pandemic. I think they had it right in medieval times with how they dealt with plague ships. They did not allow them into port to infect anyone.
I think maybe our world has shifted. Many things are going to change. On top of the virus I think we will see the fall of nations and empires here.
Nothing is ever going back to what some folks would call normal.
You can not shut down the 3 largest economies globally and not expect a financial collapse.
We have not solved the virus, and now we are entering a global depression. Supply chains have broken down we are going to have very bad inflation especially in food and food shortages worse than we have seen so far. And I think the end game will be war.
China has 1.4B mouths to feed and only 6% of the potable water and about 7% of the arable land. If the CCP can not grow enough food, and can not buy enough food, they will have to go and take food.
This whole thing has gotten out of hand and will end in resource wars.
 
#117 ·
my county has had 36 cases as of friday. 31 have recovered so far with 0 deaths. local hospital has had 0 patients with virus. i went out the other day to pick up some seeds i ordered and everything looked normal. a few masks and social distancing going on but people are out and about up here.
 
#118 ·
With out revealing too much where are you. If you look at high density areas around the US you see it right away, areas with high density more cases. Deep South a lot of cases. Makes you wonder if mosquito's will be able to spread this, especially blood sucking ones. If you can be contaminated by other body fluids I imagine blood would also spread the virus. NY State high virus count, Florida high virus count, Texas quite a few cases, Montana only 400 so far less people, Alaska 300 etc. Point Roberts 0 cases very isolated. I sure hope this can't be spread by mosquito's as the south will get wiped, they have so many blood sucking insects. My area is 3 people per sq. mile density also 0 cases as far as I know. Big problem I see for USA is so few tests done. So US numbers are probably low by at least 10x or more.
 
#121 ·
15 years ago I worked at a bio research facility, and for whatever reason they handed us all pandemic preparedness booklets. One particularly interesting piece of information was repeated several times, was that the initial wave of a pandemic is not the most dangerous. They said that it is when all seems well and everyone thinks it is over, and then you hear about a second or third wave, that strain of whatever it is, flu, corona, is likely to be more dangerous and deadly. So, in theory anyways, and I'm not a pandemic expert, it is quite possible Corona could come back much harder after the initial wave we're seeing now is over. I don't know why this happens, but I've read the same basic thing in other sources since then. The news isn't talking about anything like this because they don't want anyone to freak out, as it is difficult enough already. Hopefully, it just peters out, but since it is new - what this virus does is anyone's guess.
 
#122 ·
I agree. But the problem is, this is not a natural virus. I think we will continue having waves of this virus. I think it will keep killing people until herd immunity is achieved how many waves that will take is anybodies guess. They don't know. If they do it is a well kept secret. We have been zombified.
 
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