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Old 07-23-2019, 09:02 PM
Gulcher Gulcher is offline
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Default Spread of Pandemics



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How long would it take for a pandemic to sweep the USA today. Let's pick a pandemic like the Spanish Flu. What's your research say?
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Old 07-23-2019, 09:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Gulcher View Post
How long would it take for a pandemic to sweep the USA today. Let's pick a pandemic like the Spanish Flu. What's your research say?
IT would depend on how long it took for symptoms to show and how is it spread.

The faster it shows the easier it is contained but in todays air travel, if the symptoms take a week before it hits, and the WHO or such groups become aware of it, figure most major cities in the world will be hit with it hard.
Hope it is only spread by contact not airborne.
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Old 07-23-2019, 09:27 PM
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IF YOU want to see a really well done movie about that topic, it is
CONTAGION
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1598778/

IF that doesn't give you nightmares ....
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Old 07-23-2019, 11:23 PM
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Originally Posted by NW GUY View Post
IF YOU want to see a really well done movie about that topic, it is
CONTAGION
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1598778/

IF that doesn't give you nightmares ....
Dat movie.... They made one minor mistake in that movie, in my opinion. They made the CDC and WHO superior in knowledge to Osterholm/CIDRAP, and no to that! Itwas so accurate I was shocked.

How long it would take would be dependent on the actual mutation that was able to cross to the index-case human. Worst case is lightning spread,and the victim dead in less than 24 hours from exposure.

If it's TOO deadly, the hosts die quickly, and it has a a hard time spreading. If it is not so deadly, but has efficient spread, it will create misery but not a disaster.

Want to know rhe difference in Bird Flu and Pig Flu?

Wiith Bird Flu, you need tweetment.
With Pig Flu you just need an oinkment.
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Old 07-24-2019, 08:31 AM
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Originally Posted by woozy View Post
Dat movie.... They made one minor mistake in that movie, in my opinion. They made the CDC and WHO superior in knowledge to Osterholm/CIDRAP, and no to that! Itwas so accurate I was shocked.

How long it would take would be dependent on the actual mutation that was able to cross to the index-case human. Worst case is lightning spread,and the victim dead in less than 24 hours from exposure.

If it's TOO deadly, the hosts die quickly, and it has a a hard time spreading. If it is not so deadly, but has efficient spread, it will create misery but not a disaster.

Want to know rhe difference in Bird Flu and Pig Flu?

Wiith Bird Flu, you need tweetment.
With Pig Flu you just need an oinkment.
LOL...
Tweetment.
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Old 07-23-2019, 09:41 PM
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Originally Posted by NW GUY View Post
IT would depend on how long it took for symptoms to show and how is it spread.

The faster it shows the easier it is contained but in todays air travel, if the symptoms take a week before it hits, and the WHO or such groups become aware of it, figure most major cities in the world will be hit with it hard.
Hope it is only spread by contact not airborne.
Bill Gates and his research modelling on the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic shows that within 3 days it would be too late.
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Old 07-23-2019, 11:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW GUY View Post
IT would depend on how long it took for symptoms to show and how is it spread.

The faster it shows the easier it is contained but in todays air travel, if the symptoms take a week before it hits, and the WHO or such groups become aware of it, figure most major cities in the world will be hit with it hard.
Hope it is only spread by contact not airborne.
Well the topic was modern USA assuming all normal daily travel international and national. And the suggestion of the 1918 Spanish Flu as the virus. From what I have read the virus would be well entrenched and the pandemic spreading nationally within 3 days. Pretty much unstoppable and overwhelming the country. https://www.npr.org/templates/story/...toryId=4946718
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Old 07-23-2019, 11:56 PM
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THIS question is waaayyy outside of my skill set,so
whether airborne or touch or mucus or whatever...

IF you are way outside of any population center ie, I am 20 miles from the nearest town that shows on a map.
IF
I hunker down, not go anywhere as I can for several months, what are the odds of becoming infected?

Would airborne be spread and stay virulent that far from it last host?
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Old 07-24-2019, 12:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW GUY View Post
THIS question is waaayyy outside of my skill set,so
whether airborne or touch or mucus or whatever...

IF you are way outside of any population center ie, I am 20 miles from the nearest town that shows on a map.
IF
I hunker down, not go anywhere as I can for several months, what are the odds of becoming infected?

Would airborne be spread and stay virulent that far from it last host?
The 1918 Spanish Flu was an H1N1 flu. Assuming the pandemic is a not seen before flu virus, todays flu shots etc would have little to no effect. With International travel all the major nodes, ie; cities with major airports would be spreading it outward within 3 days. The Spanish flu symptoms were standard symptoms for flu, except you got pneumonia and died. Rural people working in cities or going shopping in cities. So the infection could be local within 3 days. The problem would be how would you know soon enough to hunker down in my opinion. By the time the CDC gave a warning we would be in a pandemic status and headed towards a civil breakdown.
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Old 07-24-2019, 12:14 AM
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It depends...a lot.

CDC simulations show a matter of a few weeks for major cities. A matter of a few months for the rest of the country. About a year for most of the world.
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Old 07-24-2019, 05:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW GUY View Post
THIS question is waaayyy outside of my skill set,so
whether airborne or touch or mucus or whatever...

IF you are way outside of any population center ie, I am 20 miles from the nearest town that shows on a map.
IF
I hunker down, not go anywhere as I can for several months, what are the odds of becoming infected?

Would airborne be spread and stay virulent that far from it last host?
Depends also if there is a non-human carrier/vector.

If a pig/dog/bird/raccoon/bat/goose or duck brought the infection to you, then being isolated from people might not protect you.
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Old 07-28-2019, 09:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW GUY View Post
IT would depend on how long it took for symptoms to show and how is it spread.

The faster it shows the easier it is contained but in todays air travel, if the symptoms take a week before it hits, and the WHO or such groups become aware of it, figure most major cities in the world will be hit with it hard.
Hope it is only spread by contact not airborne.
Very true.

The problem is: that most diseases have an "incubation period". Which is the time between exposure to the pathogen, and when symptoms start to appear.

This gives any new disease a chance to spread through large areas of the population, before anyone is even aware of it.

Let's use smallpox as an example. There is about 14 days between exposure and the first symptoms.

Viruses such as flu have a somewhat lesser incubation period.

But there is another aspect to pandemics that needs to be considered.

Again, using smallpox as an example. The problem is that most Western doctors have never SEEN a case of smallpox.

The initial stages of some new (or rare) disease pandemic, may be dismissed as symptoms of other conditions.
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Old 07-28-2019, 11:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zooeyhll View Post
Very true.

The problem is: that most diseases have an "incubation period". Which is the time between exposure to the pathogen, and when symptoms start to appear.

This gives any new disease a chance to spread through large areas of the population, before anyone is even aware of it.

Let's use smallpox as an example. There is about 14 days between exposure and the first symptoms.

Viruses such as flu have a somewhat lesser incubation period.

But there is another aspect to pandemics that needs to be considered.

Again, using smallpox as an example. The problem is that most Western doctors have never SEEN a case of smallpox.

The initial stages of some new (or rare) disease pandemic, may be dismissed as symptoms of other conditions.
That's only half the equation. How many days after you are free of symptoms are you no longer contagious?

Most people think when their fever breaks the are good to go, but that's not always the case.
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Old 07-30-2019, 06:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zooeyhll View Post
Very true.

The problem is: that most diseases have an "incubation period". Which is the time between exposure to the pathogen, and when symptoms start to appear.

This gives any new disease a chance to spread through large areas of the population, before anyone is even aware of it.

Let's use smallpox as an example. There is about 14 days between exposure and the first symptoms.

Viruses such as flu have a somewhat lesser incubation period.

But there is another aspect to pandemics that needs to be considered.

Again, using smallpox as an example. The problem is that most Western doctors have never SEEN a case of smallpox.

The initial stages of some new (or rare) disease pandemic, may be dismissed as symptoms of other conditions.
In the 1918 Flu some people were dead within hours. It was more virulent in some people.
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Old 07-30-2019, 08:55 AM
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H1N1 has reared its ugly head here in South Africa. One of the plastic surgeons on the faculty here where I work got it a few weeks ago and he is an avid jogger and health and fitness type. He is 58 years old and told us last night that he narrowly avoided a ventilator because of his level of fitness, but was on oxygen for some time. And now, even though his chest x-ray is normal, he still cannot walk up a flight of stairs. His resting pulse used to be in the 50's but now is in the 70's and goes up into the 90's if he only eats a meal. He had a newly diagnosed mitral heart valve regurgitation and believes it was probably from the virus causing a myocarditis and damaging the valve. If this thing gets out widely it could cause some massive problems. I have a new found respect for this virus. Having a heads up and forewarning will be extremely difficult at best. But I respect what the OP is saying about TPTB getting ready for a pandemic. It could happen.
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Old 09-19-2019, 11:27 PM
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This thread isn't about the MRE cheese...
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Old 07-23-2019, 09:55 PM
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They recovered that flu strain from frozen bodies in the Arctic?

The nice thing about the usual super killer stuff of the past is it kills faster than people can walk. The bad part is international travel is really fast these days.

I liked The Andromeda Strain.
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Old 07-23-2019, 09:59 PM
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Spanish flu came in 3 waves of sickness over 2 years.
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Old 07-23-2019, 10:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gulcher View Post
How long would it take for a pandemic to sweep the USA today. Let's pick a pandemic like the Spanish Flu. What's your research say?
The scenario needs more information. Are we talking a single Patient Zero who arrives in the US and starts spreading contagion? Or has the disease spread through the world and there are multiple infection points in the US? In the former it would take a week or so; in the latter, forget it, with the speed of air travel and people constantly moving about, it will be in your neighborhood before the authorities can broadcast warnings.
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Old 07-23-2019, 10:19 PM
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Yup, needs lots of info.

How many people are already immune or somewhat resistant?

Is the disease fully airborne? Sneeze-borne? or does it require real bodily contact?

How long from contact to the infectious stage. How long is the infectious stage?

How mobile is the infected person while infectious?

Does the infection remain in the sperm for over a year after recovery like Ebola?

Are there obvious symptoms that can be used to quarantine effectively, or does the person walk around symptom free for a couple days spreading the disease?

Is there an effective vaccine ready in sufficient quantities to do the ring vaccination technique?

Does it start with just a few patients that can be contact traced or have the numbers gotten beyond that stage already?

Are there other animal vectors or hosts for the disease? (is it carried by fleas, ticks, bats, birds, pigs, chickens, skeeters, assassin bugs, etc?)

Is the disease transmission rate dependent upon the season? rain, cold, hot humid, etc?

And then there are the wildcards like holidays where people fly all over the world to be with family and share infectious diseases.

How educated is the population? Do they wash their hands a lot, and in general practice good hygiene?

And is the population at peace or is there civil unrest, as we have seen in the Congo?

Are half of our doctors already overseas somewhere fighting the disease or are they all at home and ready to fight the disease in North America?
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