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Old 08-19-2019, 03:14 PM
PalmettoTree PalmettoTree is online now
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Originally Posted by evilwhitey View Post
Yep. 400 Billion in 2019, and that number will be 700 Billion in a decade. Spending and the debt burden are simply outpacing economic growth at an alarming rate. What happens when we enter a recession? Oh, that's right, deficits will skyrocket. I fully expect to see a 2T deficit at some point in the next five years.

As you mentioned, our debt also makes raising interest rates prohibitive which isn't good for our long term economic health.

If Hillary had won this forum would be saying the exact opposite and that we're circling the drain. Fact of the matter is we're past due for a pull back and if we don't see one the bubbles (CC, mortgage, auto, education) will have a significantly more disastrous effect if/when they pop.

Yes, the left is hoping for a recession, but they'll be capitalizing on one if it materializes in time for the election, not causing one without fundamentals to support it. 2007 the housing market was insane and yes, fundamentally a huge bubble ready to pop. The MSM may have played a small role, but the fact of the matter is foreclosure rates had been ticking up up up long before the election came into play.
So what!

What are you doing about your own well being? Why spend so much time babbling about something you have no control over.

Spending deficits are a flaw in our system. Try holding out and only voting against those with no compromise and we will lose in other issues including guns.

I came to this realizaton when Reagan was President.

Why don't we increase taxes to the point of eliminating the debt and paying everything as we go? Because it would kill the economy. It would be a form of backdoor socialism.

This is a survivalist forum the idea is survival over things we have not control. It is time people posting here act/post that way.
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Old 08-19-2019, 03:28 PM
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Originally Posted by PalmettoTree View Post
So what!

What are you doing about your own well being? Why spend so much time babbling about something you have no control over.

This is a survivalist forum the idea is survival over things we have not control. It is time people posting here act/post that way.
Are you off your meds again? Boomers NOT talking about problems for 40+ years and remaining woefully ignorant is precisely the reason we're in the economic mess we're in. Discussion is a good thing. To your point, acting is just as important.

Recognizing the problem, and understanding the direction that things are headed is probably a good thing when it comes to planning for your future and taking care of your own well being, which btw, I'm doing ok at.

Plenty of people have their heads in the sand so yes, it's probably good to discuss. "Taking care of my own well being" includes keeping my ear to the ground economically and planning accordingly.

I am genuinely curious what your financial plans are moving forward, and your thoughts on the topic of this conversation.
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Old 08-19-2019, 07:07 PM
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Originally Posted by PalmettoTree View Post
So what!



What are you doing about your own well being? Why spend so much time babbling about something you have no control over.



Spending deficits are a flaw in our system. Try holding out and only voting against those with no compromise and we will lose in other issues including guns.



I came to this realizaton when Reagan was President.



Why don't we increase taxes to the point of eliminating the debt and paying everything as we go? Because it would kill the economy. It would be a form of backdoor socialism.



This is a survivalist forum the idea is survival over things we have not control. It is time people posting here act/post that way.
Imagine if the founding fathers just shrugged off that British tyranny was something they had no control over, and did nothing.

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Old 08-19-2019, 07:41 PM
PalmettoTree PalmettoTree is online now
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Originally Posted by evilwhitey View Post
Are you off your meds again? Boomers NOT talking about problems for 40+ years and remaining woefully ignorant is precisely the reason we're in the economic mess we're in. Discussion is a good thing. To your point, acting is just as important.

Recognizing the problem, and understanding the direction that things are headed is probably a good thing when it comes to planning for your future and taking care of your own well being, which btw, I'm doing ok at.

Plenty of people have their heads in the sand so yes, it's probably good to discuss. "Taking care of my own well being" includes keeping my ear to the ground economically and planning accordingly.

I am genuinely curious what your financial plans are moving forward, and your thoughts on the topic of this conversation.
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Originally Posted by ForgedInTheFlame View Post
Imagine if the founding fathers just shrugged off that British tyranny was something they had no control over, and did nothing.

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I talked about it for years. I was all for the hard road to solve the problem when Reagan was President and prevent it from getting this bad.

Then I faced reality after Reagan.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing but expecting a different result.

So I stopped being insane and started looking out for me and mine. I think that is kind of what the founding fathers had in mind.

They made a system of compromise but kept us free to see after ourselves.

It is a wast of time to tell other what to do.
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Old 08-20-2019, 07:10 AM
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The Republicans are using up a lot of the resources that would normally be available to stimulate the economy in a recession with their reckless spending and tax cuts; and Trump, by pressuring the Fed to keep interest rates low, is reducing that agency's ability to lessen the impact of economic hard times. The next recession will probably be much much worse than it would have been, had adults been in charge now.
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Old 08-20-2019, 07:30 AM
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The Republicans are using up a lot of the resources that would normally be available to stimulate the economy in a recession with their reckless spending and tax cuts; and Trump, by pressuring the Fed to keep interest rates low, is reducing that agency's ability to lessen the impact of economic hard times. The next recession will probably be much much worse than it would have been, had adults been in charge now.
NO!
Tax cuts stimulate the economy. Cutting taxes is letting everyone keep more of what they earn. They use this money to vote for the products and services they want/need most. Taxes run through the government are first spent on non-value-added administration. Then spent on what only a select few (politicians) believe will get them more votes.

The Fed before Obama kept increasing rates making the '08 recession worse than necessary. The Fed kept the economy going in-spite of Obama with zero interest rates. The Fed was only able to increase rates with an expanding economy because of President Trump's policies. The Fed is now lowering those interest rates, and President Trump is calling for that, to avoid the mistakes leading up to the '08 recession.
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Old 08-20-2019, 08:49 AM
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Before the last recession, the mortgage companies knew it was coming. A friend of mine told me that I lived in one of the biggest housing bubble in the nation. President Bush warned congress about the bubble and was ignored. It's all bs by Trump haters.
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Old 08-20-2019, 09:03 AM
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Originally Posted by The Old Coach View Post
I recall the election of 1992. The small company I was consulting for that year couldn't get a line of credit anywhere - the owner had to sell a major block of stock he had inherited to keep it afloat. The story from the banks was that Dem congressional leaders were heavily leaning on them to tighten credit. Clinton got elected.
clinton got elected...and then the banking industry opened up credit to the place where anyone who could fog a mirror was able to buy a house no money down, no doc loans...explain pls.
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Old 08-20-2019, 09:21 AM
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Originally Posted by sabotage39k View Post
That will not be so hard. One word "Tariffs". Anti free trade tariffs. Tools of the socialized run economies.
what i question though, is since the democrats have cried every shade of wolf there was for the last 3 years, how many people will hear this and believe it? finger pointing after finger pointing has amounted to nothing...
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Old 08-20-2019, 09:32 AM
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Originally Posted by WindRiverWanderer View Post
The economy is soft. No real wage growth in decades. Personal and corporate debt have ballooned since the last party. Trade relations are garbage. Cyclically we're due.

Hedge and be prepared. You should be fine.
exactly right. i didnt get a raise this year...reason being my boss told me last year that if i keep asking for a raise every year, that eventually it wont be worth it for him to keep me.. so i didnt ask. im not happy about it, but i appreciate his honesty.

but this year my house was reassessed 25k higher...taxes going up next month an additional 100 bucks per month...how am i going to get that?
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Old 08-20-2019, 09:45 AM
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Originally Posted by MattB4 View Post
Seems that a global Recession is getting closer. The financial news is replete with articles concerning it daily now. It could easily morph into a Depression with massive deflation since many countries are already near zero or even at negative interest rates with low inflation. The tools to combat a economic downturn are few and overused.

That said I wonder how many folks are getting prepared for a bad job environment where they could become unemployed, under employed or have spouses in that condition? The warning signs are out there. Now is the time to have a little extra put back. Avoid borrowing on things that are not necessities. Makes sure that if you get that "Pink Slip" that it not a total shock. Update your Resume and your references.

One thing nice about deflation is things get cheaper. The rub is being able to afford to buy them.
it's interesting to me that you guys are so up on this and i thank you all for the input for this thread. in the last few weeks, ive become fascinated with war rations and how little people actually lived on. im not sure if it's because im subconsciously 'feeling' of something brewing, or it's the socialists and antisemitics that have me worried over the 'what if's' that are potentially coming. sugar, gasoline, eggs, meats, oil, canned food, cheese, butter...all of our consumerism of buy what you want, when you want gone in the blink of an eye...or a stuffed ballot box.
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Old 08-20-2019, 10:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Moccasin View Post
The Republicans are using up a lot of the resources that would normally be available to stimulate the economy in a recession with their reckless spending and tax cuts; and Trump, by pressuring the Fed to keep interest rates low, is reducing that agency's ability to lessen the impact of economic hard times. The next recession will probably be much much worse than it would have been, had adults been in charge now.

Adults?
We are past the tipping point....long past. Trump knows that the only way to lesson the impact is by growing the economy and cutting the welfare state if he can.....
And you still think it's tax cuts,
advanced thinkers know it's the unfunded mandates
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Old 08-20-2019, 11:19 AM
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Originally Posted by francessanne View Post
it's interesting to me that you guys are so up on this and i thank you all for the input for this thread. ...
When you see the sky start to get dark and hear thunder in the distance it is not all that hard to suspect you are in for a storm. There are many worrisome things going on with the economy around the world. Interest rates being one of them. A decade ago the notion of negative interest rates as a central bank policy was unthinkable. Now it is accepted.

I do not blame Trump or the Democrats. Forces are at work that dwarf the current political hacks in office.
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Old 08-20-2019, 10:11 PM
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Originally Posted by thataway View Post
Inverted Bond yield curve---if only temporary-- is one very ominous warning sign.
All recessions have followed inversions, but not all inversions signaled a recession. This is an important logic concept to understand.

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I own a farm, which produces Soy and Corn. Bad weather, and the lack of buyers depress the profits--and are causing multiple farm bankruptcies...not good for the economy.
I am sorry for your personal problems, please do not take my position personally.

Not new concepts. However, your blame placing is. Big Farm is the reason the mom and pop's aren't holding on. Death tax on acres of land is the biggest reason people lose their farms... And when the farm goes belly up, who buys it? Oh, Big Farm buys it. Why does Big Farm buy land that is not profitable? Production of scale... Hence the problem with small farm ownership when Big Farm is around.

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Those of us on fixed income from retirement are some of the folks--as well as the very poor who are hurt by inflation, and a recession.
Which do you want inflation, or a recession? You can't have both.

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Underneath--the tariffs are hurting US
We are in a war. If you disagree, then you don't get my point. If you agree, then you have to understand the economics at play are smaller than the larger scale war objective.
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Old 08-20-2019, 10:19 PM
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Heading for a recession? My son works for one of the major railroads. And was recently told there will be furloughs across the board due to a reduced demand.

If there’s nothing for the railroads to move it’s pretty telling.
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Old 08-20-2019, 10:29 PM
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Heading for a recession? My son works for one of the major railroads. And was recently told there will be furloughs across the board due to a reduced demand.

If thereís nothing for the railroads to move itís pretty telling.
No doubt. Obama's war on coal was tragically a success. Fewer imports hurt railroads. Different industries have recessions even when the economy is not in a recession.
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Old 08-25-2019, 10:17 PM
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Are you off your meds again? Boomers NOT talking about problems for 40+ years and remaining woefully ignorant is precisely the reason we're in the economic mess we're in.
Well...
The internet has changed everything and the flow of information available now is staggering. 40 years ago? The library, the family encyclopedia on the shelf or uncle Bob who new some stuff, yeah, that was it.

I remember as a kid everyone thought Walter Conkrite was a trustworthy and reliable news anchor/commentator. Now with a little internet research you find out he was a lying globalist shill who hated America. And that's the way it was...
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Old 08-25-2019, 11:12 PM
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Well...
The internet has changed everything and the flow of information available now is staggering. 40 years ago? The library, the family encyclopedia on the shelf or uncle Bob who new some stuff, yeah, that was it.

I remember as a kid everyone thought Walter Conkrite was a trustworthy and reliable news anchor/commentator. Now with a little internet research you find out he was a lying globalist shill who hated America. And that's the way it was...
I agree, with one caveat, boomers have had access to the internet for 20 years and are still as head in the sand ignorant as ever when it comes to economics and government so I can't give them a complete pass.
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Old 10-14-2019, 02:23 PM
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Short answer, I think, is yes. The general trend is every 10 years, so basically we are due.

I think there are a number of bubbles in the economy, all of which could likely pop at any given time. However, how bad the next one is, I think, is highly dependent on which bubble starts the cascade of snowball/domino effect in the markets.

I do think that the next one will likely be worse than the Great Recession, and a lot of that comes from my present understanding that the general population is in more debt than they were back in the 08/09 decline - many (also at my present understanding) haven't remedied their credit scores from that decline.

There are a number of foreclosed properties that are likely still on their books that they haven't gotten off their books. Depending on where those properties are located, if they haven't been cared for or lived in over the past 10-ish years they are probably better off being leveled. The properties in the areas of high heat and humidity are likely experiencing some level of mold at a minimum.

The thing that I have been learning more about over the past 10 years or so is the fiat currency, among other related items.

Before the 2008/09 recession, I didn't have much faith in the fiat currency of the US. After further research I was able to do, that faith has decreased even more. Personally, I was shocked that there was room for it to decrease more.

Politically, I find Trump's administration to be entertaining. From what I have been able to follow, it seems he says/does/tweets something that gets the MSM and various Congress members to get their panties in a twist and they get all distracted and everything is about whatever that 30 second sound byte or tweet said. I think he does that to distract them all, while he goes over to another area and works on getting some other stuff done.

Along the lines of Trump, I remember a few of his speeches where he says something along the lines of "I know debt". Now, in my current understanding and studies, there is good debt and bad debt. There are whispers/rumors of Trump wanting to go back to a "gold standard" like setting to the US currency. Since September 2019 and continues as of the date of this post, the Fed has re-started the Quantitative Easing program from the 2008/09 days, but they call it by a different name, it's still the QE of 08/09.

I was watching a video on debt about a week ago, and the holders of good debt, like mortgages on rental houses and such generally hope for hyper inflation. The mortgage is at a fixed % of interest...the value of the currency decreases due to inflation....and the inflation increases the house prices. So, if they have a $150k house at a 5% mortgage...hyperinflation would increase the house to (for example) $250k but the mortgage stays at a 5% interest and it takes more dollars to buy the same unit.

This is a partially-baked thought, but it's where my brain is at the moment.....I'm wondering if Trump may be doing something behind the scenes somehow to increase the good debt of the country that will put us on the winning side of a hyper-inflated fiat currency? I have no idea what that would be, but this is as far as my thinking has gotten me so far.

Maybe it's going back to a "gold standard" of our current fiat currency, perhaps it's some kind of "gold standard" for crypto-currency?

Gold and Silver to me are, in my mind, more a way of "hedging one's bets" as a storage of wealth, which may be beneficial depending on what happens with the fiat currency in the event of another recession.

I think it's good to just get out of or reduce as much debt as possible, have stuff for barter, and also have some gold/silver on hand as one's budget allows. If you are already doing this, then just keep at it to the best of your ability. If not, then start where you are....something is better than nothing.

Happy Prepping,
SurviveThrive
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