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Old 07-30-2019, 06:29 PM
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Originally Posted by 6.8SPC View Post
Is a U.S. Recession imminent?

NO........

The Government now has the ability to prevent Recession ever happening again.
I'm all ears.
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Old 07-30-2019, 06:35 PM
Rural Buckeye Guy Rural Buckeye Guy is online now
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Mkts been trying to re-set for months now but artificially propped up til after the election. I expect a black swan just before the election in a desperate attempt to defeat Trump. Or, it just slips away from them before next Fall.
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Old 07-30-2019, 06:45 PM
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Originally Posted by OldDesertrat View Post
HomeDefense, that crash had been predicted as much as several years prior. Guys like Bill Bonner and Doug Casey, e.g. Even George Soros called for a recession, in late 2006 or early 2007.

Note that Austrian School of Economics disciples predicted the crash. Keynesian disciples were blind-sided. Numerous quotes can be found as LexisNexis.

Too-low interest rates cause bubbles--and the one we are in now is bigger than back in 2008. Far more debt in many more areas of finance.
I'm aware of the predictions of a recession. People have been predicting recessions and depressions all the way back to the 1970s. There were several books written predicting the crash of 1979 -- that never happened.

The point I made was with respect to the timing of the crash. It was a significant factor in Obozo winning the election, and probably more than a coincidence.

If they are going to pull the plug on the economy again, I predict it will be a few days or weeks prior to the 2020 election. The Dims will need time to convince people that Trump policies caused the crash.
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Old 07-30-2019, 08:50 PM
sabotage39k sabotage39k is offline
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Originally Posted by HomeDefense View Post
The Dims will need time to convince people that Trump policies caused the crash.
That will not be so hard. One word "Tariffs". Anti free trade tariffs. Tools of the socialized run economies.
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Old 07-30-2019, 10:22 PM
OldDesertrat OldDesertrat is offline
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To repeat, the Austrians correctly predicted the recession and then its date. Keynesians were blind-sided; witness Greenspan's comment that the reduction in housing prices was contained--as they continued to go heaps, gobs and bunches lower. Bernanke's and Yellen's public statements indicated equal ignorance and confusion.

The 2008 crash came about from bad debt, with Carter's Community Reinvestment Act being the tipping point. Today's debt is dramatically larger than that of 2008. Several tipping points are possible, given the worldwide inter-connectedness. Deutsche Bank? Shale oil? Car loans? Student debt? I dunno.
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Old 07-31-2019, 06:53 AM
OldDesertrat OldDesertrat is offline
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The Federal Reserve Bank historically lowers its federal funds rate when a recession occurs. That rate has commonly been around 5% to 6%. The goal is to restore liquidity and get more money into circulation. Rate lowerings have commonly run 3% to 4%.

It is now 2.5% and today they are expected to lower it to 2.25%.

If a recession occurs this fall, where do they go?
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Old 07-31-2019, 07:09 AM
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Originally Posted by sabotage39k View Post
That will not be so hard. One word "Tariffs". Anti free trade tariffs. Tools of the socialized run economies.
The countries Trump used tariffs against had higher tariffs on our products. The ideal is to get rid of all tariffs and let trade flow freely.

Canada, Mexico, China, and others had very high tariffs on a range of American goods, which made it impossible to sell our products or achieve a relative balance of trade. Nothing that Trump did with tariffs was out of line. It brought countries to the bargaining table, which was the goal.

A guide to understanding the dairy dispute between the U.S. and Canada

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Canada has long maintained a high tariff wall on most dairy products. The duty on milk is 270 per cent. That keeps most imports from the United States and elsewhere out of Canada, while helping to prop up higher domestic prices.
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Old 07-31-2019, 07:25 AM
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Originally Posted by OldDesertrat View Post
To repeat, the Austrians correctly predicted the recession and then its date. Keynesians were blind-sided; witness Greenspan's comment that the reduction in housing prices was contained--as they continued to go heaps, gobs and bunches lower. Bernanke's and Yellen's public statements indicated equal ignorance and confusion.

The 2008 crash came about from bad debt, with Carter's Community Reinvestment Act being the tipping point. Today's debt is dramatically larger than that of 2008. Several tipping points are possible, given the worldwide inter-connectedness. Deutsche Bank? Shale oil? Car loans? Student debt? I dunno.
I fully agree that the economy is fragile. All they need to do it pull the trigger at the right time to turn the public against Trump. If they do that, it will likely end Trump's chance for another term, which is the reason why they will likely do that.

Predictions do not mean anything unless they occur. There have been dozens of predictions of recessions and depressions that did not occur.
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Old 07-31-2019, 07:38 AM
The Old Coach The Old Coach is online now
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Originally Posted by Rural Buckeye Guy View Post
Mkts been trying to re-set for months now but artificially propped up til after the election. I expect a black swan just before the election in a desperate attempt to defeat Trump. Or, it just slips away from them before next Fall.
The question that overshadows the shadow of the hour is: What will it be?

In all events, prep, prep, prep.
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Old 07-31-2019, 07:42 AM
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Predictions of a recession (and prosperity) have been going on as long as I can remember. You can pick any prediction and run with it anytime and you have close to a 50-50 chance of being right.

It seems like more than a coincidence that when McCain was running with Sarah Palin and the polls had just shown them rising to beat Obama (50%), suddenly just weeks before election day Lehman bank crashed and since a Republican was the sitting president (Bush), the polls instantly reversed and Obama won handily.

Someone(s) very rich and powerful was able to make Obama president (twice). Think guys in the nature of Soros who brought the Bank of England to it's knees (and broke Lehman's).

Sarah (McCain not so much) got the same treatment that Trump is now getting from the media, distortions and downright lies. Obama got a pass on every blunder, every bad decision, every executive order.

Do I think we'll get a recession? Absolutely. Timed to have the greatest effect on the 2020 election. Just to show what a buffoon Trump is. What remains to be seen is how much of the American public will fall for it again.

The world has changed greatly since then. More and more people are seeing through the BS and manipulation of the media and Trump has been surprisingly able to take the heat (I admire him most for that). We'll see.

The economy is fragile and even without negative manipulation it can easily fail. I certainly agree with prep, prep, prep.
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Old 07-31-2019, 08:29 AM
sabotage39k sabotage39k is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HomeDefense View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by sabotage39k View Post
That will not be so hard. One word "Tariffs". Anti free trade tariffs. Tools of the socialized run economies.
The countries Trump used tariffs against had higher tariffs on our products. The ideal is to get rid of all tariffs and let trade flow freely.

Canada, Mexico, China, and others had very high tariffs on a range of American goods, which made it impossible to sell our products or achieve a relative balance of trade. Nothing that Trump did with tariffs was out of line. It brought countries to the bargaining table, which was the goal.

A guide to understanding the dairy dispute between the U.S. and Canada

Quote:
Canada has long maintained a high tariff wall on most dairy products. The duty on milk is 270 per cent. That keeps most imports from the United States and elsewhere out of Canada, while helping to prop up higher domestic prices.
Not completely true...ever hear of NAFTA? That trade agreement brought tariffs down 50 percent immediately and a tariff reduction schedule was implemented to continue reductions further. There were specific line items as you mentioned milk and yes the purpose of the use of tariffs seemed to ultimately work as it was intended with Mexico and Canada.

However, with the Europeans, China, India, and the rest of the world it does not seem to be working. What is supposed to be a short term trade negotiating tactic is turning into actual trade policy the longer it goes on.

The real issue with Mexico was that the US couldn’t compete with their labor market. It wasn’t about tariffs because tariffs were already getting cut under nafta.

Therefore, the question is not whether or not anything trump did with tariffs is out of line, but rather assess the cost benefit to the practice. At least that should be of more importance strategically. If we want to go down that rabbit hole of “appropriateness” I would say the reckless use in a blanket format can be seen as out of line. It’s like carpet bombing an entire city to get to one facility. With the case of east Asia it is having the opposite effect.

The tariffs do look like it will open up free trade, but for them not us. China is pushing to finalize one of the biggest free trade deals with the rest of Asia without the US.

So to summarize. Short term use of tariffs as the case in Mexico and Canada fall under your presumption appropriate prescription to a trade problem. Long term use of tariffs become actual trade policy as is the case with most of Asia and Europeans. Trade policy that is govt intrusive, anti conservative, anti free trade, anti capitalism and more aligned with socialist models of government controlled economics.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.scm...eal-without-us

https://www.inc.com/encyclopedia/nor...ent-nafta.html
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Old 07-31-2019, 08:30 AM
LoveLife LoveLife is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tiberius View Post
I'm all ears.
I believe he later said he was joking.

However, I think there is some truth to his comment:
- Japan has a much higher debt/GDP than the U.S, so maybe the spending is not over
- The FED can lower interest rates and do more QE
- The Japanese central bank actually buys equities. The FED could buy a few shares of every component of the Dow. Wealth effect.
- The FED could go negative with rates. You would put $100 in your savings and get back $99 !!
- The FED could return to the gold standard. Might temporarily improve trust.
- The FED could resort to a "Bail In". Read about this ugly little Bankster trick.
- Congress could pass a massive infrastructure spending bill.
- There is always a strategic/contrived War ?!
- Bernie's chief economist believes there is no limit to deficit spending.
Read about Modern Economic Theory. Lunacy IMHO, but believed by many.

There are these and many other schemes to stall the inevitable.
The can-kicking could continue for quite some time.
However, there eventually will be a financial comeuppance.
But isn't that what we are prepping for?
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Old 07-31-2019, 08:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OldDesertrat View Post
HomeDefense, that crash had been predicted as much as several years prior. Guys like Bill Bonner and Doug Casey, e.g. Even George Soros called for a recession, in late 2006 or early 2007.

Note that Austrian School of Economics disciples predicted the crash. Keynesian disciples were blind-sided. Numerous quotes can be found as LexisNexis.

Too-low interest rates cause bubbles--and the one we are in now is bigger than back in 2008. Far more debt in many more areas of finance.
Yes, very true...
I'm not sure about the timing, but...
every bubble eventually goes bust...
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Old 07-31-2019, 11:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Hoka-hey View Post
Manufacturing is still a big player and coming back.....but yeah I remember the 70's & 80's...on every block.
You must have been in another 70's & 80"s than me! Jobs were nowhere to be found and Jimmy Carters 15% inflation was killing everything. Did you mean the 1870's & 1880's? What am I missing? JMHO, YMMV.
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Old 07-31-2019, 12:06 PM
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With robotics, today's manufacturing requires far fewer employees per unit of output value. Plus, with the changes (from, say, lathes and milling machines to plastics) in type of manufacturing, the present workforce is much smaller than back in the 1945-1975 period.
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Old 07-31-2019, 12:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OldDesertrat View Post
With robotics, today's manufacturing requires far fewer employees per unit of output value. Plus, with the changes (from, say, lathes and milling machines to plastics) in type of manufacturing, the present workforce is much smaller than back in the 1945-1975 period.
Spot on. Most studies show that the majority of "lost" jobs over the past 75 years haven't been due to outsourcing, but because of efficiency gains due to technology. Those jobs can't come back, because they don't exist, they've been obsoleted. It's also why pay hasn't kept up, supply and demand.

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Old 08-11-2019, 08:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by charliemeyer007 View Post
I expect the SWAMP/NWO to try stuff right before the elections - they know "its the economy stupid"
THIS^

I'll be surprised if they wait that long.
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Old 08-11-2019, 10:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OldDesertrat View Post
With robotics, today's manufacturing requires far fewer employees per unit of output value. Plus, with the changes (from, say, lathes and milling machines to plastics) in type of manufacturing, the present workforce is much smaller than back in the 1945-1975 period.
Counting part time I've been in manufacturing for 47 years. Haven't seen to much robotics and that includes working at a company that built custom automation machines for all the big players out there.
Robots are expensive to buy and expensive to maintain and are used only when absolutely needed.(hazardous operations mostly)

I'd say computer's were /are they big game changer, CNC/CAD/CAM.
Far more work is done faster and accuracy is more consistent.

World markets , population increase and an increasingly throw away
society keeps manufacturing busy.

Plastics/Die cast still takes skilled mold makers to build and maintain . (I've done that) . Extreme accuracy = expensive molds.

Mold for a trans valve body being made...seen that.
Crucial part for the space station being made where a NASA engineer is
Okaying every move ..seen that also.




ce
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Old 08-11-2019, 10:31 AM
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Originally Posted by evilwhitey View Post
Spot on. Most studies show that the majority of "lost" jobs over the past 75 years haven't been due to outsourcing, but because of efficiency gains due to technology. Those jobs can't come back, because they don't exist, they've been obsoleted. It's also why pay hasn't kept up, supply and demand.

Pay maybe hasn't kept up because of the staggering health insurance costs that the employer is burdened with ....not so much of an issue back in the day.
I remember when the employer paid all of it.
Work comp insurance is expensive, ISO compliance is expensive ect ect.

Still high 50's to mid 70's salary for the right skill set is the norm here if your willing to put up with a little noise and grime...I'll take it.
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Old 08-11-2019, 03:08 PM
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The economy is soft. No real wage growth in decades. Personal and corporate debt have ballooned since the last party. Trade relations are garbage. Cyclically we're due.

Hedge and be prepared. You should be fine.
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