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Old 09-12-2019, 08:56 AM
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Originally Posted by rriley View Post
Silver is a commodity that does not react independently to fundamentals in the way that other commodities react, i.e. Soybean, which react to rain, exports, etc. Silver has a significant correlation to stocks because some people use it as a partial hedge for financial investments.

If you look at the 180 day 4 hour charts for /SI (CME silver futures, the commodity from which silver prices are derived), and /ES (the S&P mini index) you can see that at the end of July when /ES declined from the high of 3029 to 2780, /SI began it’s rally from $15.94 to $19.75.

This means that silver price charts need to be evaluated in conjunction with stock charts. Simply looking at silver charts and drawing conclusions from supposed support and resistance levels do not tell the whole story.
OK I have trimmed the data set to 187 data points each starting from 1 Jan 2019. Each data point is either red or green depending on a loss or gain. I can already make an educated guess the S&P mini and SI numbers do not have an inverse relationship. There are too many data points where both move in the same direction.

We shall see.
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Old 09-12-2019, 09:40 AM
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Originally Posted by rriley View Post
Silver is a commodity that does not react independently to fundamentals in the way that other commodities react, i.e. Soybean, which react to rain, exports, etc. Silver has a significant correlation to stocks because some people use it as a partial hedge for financial investments.

If you look at the 180 day 4 hour charts for /SI (CME silver futures, the commodity from which silver prices are derived), and /ES (the S&P mini index) you can see that at the end of July when /ES declined from the high of 3029 to 2780, /SI began it’s rally from $15.94 to $19.75.

This means that silver price charts need to be evaluated in conjunction with stock charts. Simply looking at silver charts and drawing conclusions from supposed support and resistance levels do not tell the whole story.
Sorry but I ran a correlation since the first of the year with 187 data points each. The R-squared factor is 0.00933. That is as close to zero as I have ever seen. An R-squared factor of 1 is a perfect correlation. An R-squared factor of zero is no correlation what so ever.

It would be a mistake to base buying and selling silver on the direction of the S&P mini.

This still was in interesting exercise but once again it is proof that PM prices are independent commodity prices. All these ads for gold and silver hedges etc. are nothing more than cons.

PMs are finite elements they increase in value over time regardless. In fact when the economy is good more people have money to buy PMs. This is why PMs and measures of the economy like the S&P mini actually have a slight positive relationship rather than an inverse relationship.

There is nothing I would like better than to find some magic relationship to make me rich.
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Old 09-12-2019, 10:04 AM
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You are a modern alchemist
No, you cannot make gold
How about simple views
One
Fed cuts interest rates
Silver tends to go down with bonds
Love to watch fools make a science project out of things
Big picture, it is all insider, macro
You want in, get in on their crumbs before it goes down
A rich man I know, makes money on "the news"
Before it goes up/down in the market
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Old 09-12-2019, 12:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Jack Swilling View Post
You are a modern alchemist
No, you cannot make gold
How about simple views
One
Fed cuts interest rates
Silver tends to go down with bonds
Love to watch fools make a science project out of things
A rich man I know, makes money on "the news"
Before it goes up/down in the market
So which is it. I am a fool for doing the analysis or I should look at the correlation between silver prices and Fed rates and/or bond prices? Which bond prices?

I thought the old adage was "Buy on the rumor, sell on the news." Is that what you are saying? Which rumors from who?

Am I a fool for asking?
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Old 09-12-2019, 01:53 PM
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Sorry, not my intention to call you a fool.
You have pointed out the vagaries of this whole deal
Me a fool yes
You, no
Pharma is a great example
You know FDA is going to green-light a drug before it hits the news
Lot of people know what is what
They just have to avoid getting smoked by thd SEC
M&A has made many many fortunes
Same deal
You know Iran is going to throw down with whoever before it is front page
You are wise to put in your due diligence
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Old 09-12-2019, 05:03 PM
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I just wish you guys would get over the excitement and explain to me WHY!
Why do you need to analyze our excitement?

Just let us have fun and watch something we believe in.
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Old 09-12-2019, 06:43 PM
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Why do you need to analyze our excitement?

Just let us have fun and watch something we believe in.
I like to understand why my investments are moving regardless of the direction. Except for PMs I will not keep an investment that drops more than 7 to 8%.

If I do not understand why an investment is moving up, I do not understand my investment.

I know why silver is moving up generally. I think I understood why it fell as much as it did. I do not understand why it has increased as much as it has from its recent bottom.
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Old 09-13-2019, 10:46 AM
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Ag Ask $17.77 Down $0.39 Gadzooks!!
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Old 09-13-2019, 11:09 AM
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It is wose than that now
But, it will go back up at some point ....
I was going to sell some at around $18.50
Now, not so much
Next time north of $18
Some will be sold
Silver is a bitter mistress
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Old 09-13-2019, 11:24 AM
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Ask $17.72 Down $0.44
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Old 09-13-2019, 12:10 PM
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All I can figure as silver went up over $17 the short sellers panicked and started covering their shorts driving the pice higher temporally.

Maybe it will settle down around $17.50 maybe as low as above $17.
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Old 09-13-2019, 06:59 PM
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So I take a short 4 day trip/vacation and silver tanks even more, oh well.

I am sure the traders heard me sneeze and it freaked them out, finicky folks. Something got in the way of the metals bull run, the reasons metals were going up is still there but nothing goes straight up except hyper inflation. We will have our day it is just a matter of when.

When I really started watching silver about 15 years ago or better I tried and tried to understand it's moves but manipulated markets (all of them) never gave me the opportunity to understand the metals moves.
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Old 09-16-2019, 07:55 AM
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Default Gold rises more than 1% on global turmoil — but silver surges more

Gold rises more than 1% on global turmoil — but silver surges more

So look what a crisis makes

Silver $17.88 up $.36
Was pushing $18

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/16/gold...ises-more.html

BTW $17.90
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Old 09-16-2019, 10:16 AM
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Ag Ask $18.05 Up $0.54
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Old 09-17-2019, 10:52 AM
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Ag Ask $18.08 Up $0.16
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Old 09-17-2019, 10:56 AM
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I believe JP Morgan/Chase is in trouble for manipulating markets?????????
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Old 09-17-2019, 11:07 AM
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I believe JP Morgan/Chase is in trouble for manipulating markets?????????

This is a recording, this is a recording................
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Old 09-17-2019, 11:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rriley View Post
This is a recording, this is a recording................
From what little I know,
JP Morgan is trying to supress the price to a point that suits them
Counter-intuitive
But my opinion
All based off production cost
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Old 09-17-2019, 01:19 PM
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Well, actually I meant to post "in trouble AGAIN" ...my mistake
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Old 09-17-2019, 02:11 PM
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Ag Ask $18.13 Up $0.20
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