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Old 06-03-2019, 01:08 PM
PalmettoTree PalmettoTree is offline
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Default Hurricane Predictions



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NOAA predicts:

9 to 15 Named Storms
4 to 8 Hurricanes
of those
2 to 4 Major Hurricanes (Major meaning category 3,4,5)

I predict:
16 to 18 tropical depressions
11 to 13 Named Storms
6 to 7 Hurricanes
of those
2 to 3 Major Hurricanes (Major meaning category 3,4,5)

What do you predict?
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Old 06-03-2019, 01:14 PM
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Some days we will have rain, some days not. Some days high wind, some days not. Some days both, some not. Only God know for sure, but this is Florida so storms are possible any day. As for hurricanes, don't worry keep prepped and carry on.
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Old 06-03-2019, 02:20 PM
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I would keep a check on the sea temperature around Florida and in the Gulf of Mexico.

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/egof.html

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

For Katrina the Gulf of Mexico was about 30C.
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Old 06-03-2019, 04:00 PM
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Quote:
What do you predict?
I predict most predictions will be wrong.
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Old 06-03-2019, 04:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snyper708 View Post
I predict most predictions will be wrong.
That was the point of my post lol
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Old 06-04-2019, 05:38 AM
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I look at the NOAA site every day from late May until Thanksgiving. On the NE coast, our worst storms are often towards or well into the fall. Sandy was followed up by a snowstorm days after, insult to injury.

Often I have a 2 or 3 day jump on everyone else, at least local to me. Food shop, top off the propane stash, extra gas cans are filled.
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Old 06-04-2019, 05:52 AM
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I'm sick of hurricanes, tropical storms and rain storms

I'm sick and tired of prepping and being prepared, I wanna move away from the sub-tropical climate although I hate wintertime anywhere else

Luckily, my house has never flooded even though in areas all around me has experienced severe flooding

So far the only real damage I got was from Hurricane Ike in 08

It amazes me how all the stores around here can run out of water and all the simple items and the lumber yards run out of plywood. Generators fly off the shelves

You'd think people around here would be better prepared but they're not

It's not that hard to have the stuff on hand, it really doesn't take all that much to have a weeks worth of supplies and a generator

My prediction is as follows: We may get one, we may not
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Old 06-04-2019, 08:02 PM
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Think the NOAA forecast is supposed to be pretty much in line with the average numbers of storms, named storms, and major hurricanes.

All I've got to add is that Katrina, Sandy, Irma, Harvey, and Maria, must be astronomically unlikely, if they were examples of outliers among business as usual, and not instead a new normal. Think that Florence (last year, Carolinas) was also predicted to be similarly bad at first, and then we just barely lucked out, right?

We may have some boring years for a while, but eventually, and before long, there should be huge hurricanes again.

I attached a little chart. It says that the 13 costliest US hurricanes were all in the 2000s, and the only exception was in the '90s.

Especially if you look at the full chart of 30, you can see it's definitely a trend. Seems like a lot of tough storms!

Actually, I've read elsewhere that the "costliest" figure is effected by there being more real estate at the shore than there used to be. Climate change says to move away from the shore, but people decide to do the opposite.

Remember the wildfire problem, too, which is now spreading to the Arctic and Canada. America has the hurricanes in one region, then the wildfires, the borer beetles, and droughts. And the changing, massive, migrant / demographic situation.
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Old 06-04-2019, 09:17 PM
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NOAA's predictions are a joke. They are historically 50% accurate, which is sad when you consider they place a bet on all outcomes.

30% chance of a below average season
60% chance of an average season
10% chance of an above average season.

For anyone that cares, 2013, predicted to be an above average year, is said to be the hottest year on record, yet the fewest named stores in 50+ years.
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Old 06-04-2019, 09:39 PM
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IMO the point here is if NOAA, self-proclaimed best hurricane predictor, cannot get the current season right, exactly how can they be trusted to get the next 100 years right.
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Old 06-04-2019, 10:17 PM
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7 of the top 13 costliest US storms, since 1900, all were in the past eleven years. Then if we want to see the one that's tied for number 1, we only have to go back a few more years to 2005.

Maybe it says more about where people are putting their property, population increase, and about how much luxury we have nowadays than anything else. But I don't know, seems like these were pretty mighty storms.

The damage, the evacuations, the rescue efforts, the casualties, everything.

The US population in 1900 was 23% of our current population.

If we adjust the costs of the top five hurricanes down to 23%, they're
Katrina $28.75 billion
Harvey 28.75
Maria 20.7
Sandy 14.95
Irma 11.5

Then some of the rest of damage could still be accounted for by a trend in putting real estate at the coast, besides the overall population growth.

Even if it's not that near to being air-tight methodology, it's a valid point.

They're still pretty scary storms, though. I just can't yet totally credit the news articles or studies or whatever that say that we don't have it tougher than we used to.
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Old 06-04-2019, 10:35 PM
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Improved storm resistant building codes will skew the dollar damage statistics.
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Old 06-05-2019, 03:43 AM
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I predict that regardless of what happens, it will be directly attributable to climate change.
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Old 06-05-2019, 07:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim from 28DaysLater View Post
7 of the top 13 costliest US storms, since 1900, all were in the past eleven years. Then if we want to see the one that's tied for number 1, we only have to go back a few more years to 2005.

Maybe it says more about where people are putting their property, population increase, and about how much luxury we have nowadays than anything else. But I don't know, seems like these were pretty mighty storms.

The damage, the evacuations, the rescue efforts, the casualties, everything.

The US population in 1900 was 23% of our current population.

If we adjust the costs of the top five hurricanes down to 23%, they're
Katrina $28.75 billion
Harvey 28.75
Maria 20.7
Sandy 14.95
Irma 11.5

Then some of the rest of damage could still be accounted for by a trend in putting real estate at the coast, besides the overall population growth.

Even if it's not that near to being air-tight methodology, it's a valid point.

They're still pretty scary storms, though. I just can't yet totally credit the news articles or studies or whatever that say that we don't have it tougher than we used to.
To further your point, population centers and location matters more with proximity to the eye.

Hurricane Michael, the 3rd strongest storm to ever hit the US, caused $20 Billion in damage between lost assets and infrastructure damage on just Tyndall AFB and the Navy Dive Center.

What you are showing above is insurance claims. Insurance claims are less, because property value is less in this part of the nation and it is unfortunately common practice to be under insured when there is no outstanding loan. My modest home here would be a multi million dollar home if set in a similar location in NY/Long Island. Therefore the damage is less costly here, but not less intense.

https://www.businessinsider.com/stro...a-wilma-2017-9
Quote:
Its minimum central pressure — a key indicator of hurricane strength —was measured at 919 millibars. That central pressure is lower than that of Hurricanes Andrew or Katrina.
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Old 06-05-2019, 07:23 AM
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7 of the top 13 costliest US storms, since 1900, all were in the past eleven years. Then if we want to see the one that's tied for number 1, we only have to go back a few more years to 2005.
Rating storms by "dollars in damages" is pretty stupid to me.

With population growth and inflation, storms will always cause more "loss" as time goes by, even if the storms themselves really aren't as strong.

Quote:
Think that Florence (last year, Carolinas) was also predicted to be similarly bad at first, and then we just barely lucked out, right?
Florence could have been a lot worse.

It had one of the most unusual tracks I've ever seen, and it was that anomaly that kept it from coming ashore with a much higher wind speed.

The people who lived where the eye came ashore certainly didn't "luck out".
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Old 06-05-2019, 07:29 AM
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We're still dealing with trash from Katrina, moved here hugely entitled "Because Katrina". Gave them free housing for over a year, food stamps, handed out $1000 debit cards like tracts. Still "not enough". Brought their thug mindset and gang warfare, jacked our crime rate through the roof. STILL here.

My husband asked one guy (a driver, and a bad one) why he didn't go back. "Oh, there's nothing back home for me (name), not like there is here."

Thanks a lot. They still act like Houston is a huge cesspool they are "forced" to live in, go "back home" as often as they can, spend all their money there. I wish we could get rid of them and VERY sorry we took them in the first place.

However, I hear Houston has told New Orleans that will never happen again, and they had BETTER arrange other places for their people to go during the next one.

Who is stupid enough to live BELOW sea level, anyway?

I do find it funny. When they first got here it was all about Katrina, New Orleans, they were victims. And we let them get away with it for a few years. Now it is "from Louisiana". If you ask them when they came over it is 2005. Ah, ha.
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Old 06-05-2019, 07:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim from 28DaysLater View Post
Think the NOAA forecast is supposed to be pretty much in line with the average numbers of storms, named storms, and major hurricanes.

All I've got to add is that Katrina, Sandy, Irma, Harvey, and Maria, must be astronomically unlikely, if they were examples of outliers among business as usual, and not instead a new normal. Think that Florence (last year, Carolinas) was also predicted to be similarly bad at first, and then we just barely lucked out, right?

We may have some boring years for a while, but eventually, and before long, there should be huge hurricanes again.

I attached a little chart. It says that the 13 costliest US hurricanes were all in the 2000s, and the only exception was in the '90s.

Especially if you look at the full chart of 30, you can see it's definitely a trend. Seems like a lot of tough storms!

Actually, I've read elsewhere that the "costliest" figure is effected by there being more real estate at the shore than there used to be. Climate change says to move away from the shore, but people decide to do the opposite.

Remember the wildfire problem, too, which is now spreading to the Arctic and Canada. America has the hurricanes in one region, then the wildfires, the borer beetles, and droughts. And the changing, massive, migrant / demographic situation.
Your chart is saying the costliest hurricanes were all in the 2000s because it is done in unadjusted U.S. Dollars.

http://www.stormfax.com/hurcost1.htm

This says more about inflation than actual hurricane damage.

I looked up the 1900 Galveston hurricane to compare. A quick search on wiki puts the damage from that one at $104 billion if happened in 2010. Not to mention the value of 8000 lives lost.

I've included an image that shows the costliest years that factors adjustment and normalized damage. The far right column paints a much different picture.

The chart came from this NOAA pdf pages 28-30.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/nws-nhc-6.pdf
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Old 06-05-2019, 07:50 AM
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I predict that whatever happens, the Weather Channel bozos will got out of their way to try to convince us that the world is coming to an end.

If we had NO hurricanes, they would show us video of past disasters, probably including the Texas City fires in the 40s. If we have a LOT of hurricanes, they will be delighted and will push their climate change theories.

All of which is why I never watch the Weather Channel.

WW

shoot straight - stay safe
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Old 06-05-2019, 08:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snyper708 View Post
Rating storms by "dollars in damages" is pretty stupid to me.

With population growth and inflation, storms will always cause more "loss" as time goes by, even if the storms themselves really aren't as strong.


Florence could have been a lot worse.

It had one of the most unusual tracks I've ever seen, and it was that anomaly that kept it from coming ashore with a much higher wind speed.

The people who lived where the eye came ashore certainly didn't "luck out".
Exactly. Here's a chart of storms by strength. It only goes through 2004 but shows the randomness of it all once the human cost is taken out.

It's kinda hard to read ... here's the link, page 13.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/nws-nhc-6.pdf
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Old 06-05-2019, 11:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ManyFeathers View Post
I'm sick of hurricanes, tropical storms and rain storms

I'm sick and tired of prepping and being prepared, I wanna move away from the sub-tropical climate although I hate wintertime anywhere else

Luckily, my house has never flooded even though in areas all around me has experienced severe flooding

So far the only real damage I got was from Hurricane Ike in 08

It amazes me how all the stores around here can run out of water and all the simple items and the lumber yards run out of plywood. Generators fly off the shelves

You'd think people around here would be better prepared but they're not

It's not that hard to have the stuff on hand, it really doesn't take all that much to have a weeks worth of supplies and a generator

My prediction is as follows: We may get one, we may not
Funny, as I get older I better tolerate the cold. Snow 18" doesn't even faze me a bit. I know I'll be out of work for a day or two, my choice since we never close.

Same with hurricanes, I take them in stride. I know I will be ready for the next one that comes up to see us. I expect us to lose power, that is a given. So far outages have been a few days or less. If my NG stays on, I'll have all the hot water I can use. But keep that quiet...

I'll be a few steps ahead of everyone for batteries, non-perishable food, kerosene, gasoline and propane.
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