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Old 03-28-2020, 04:04 PM
IC_Rafe IC_Rafe is offline
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Originally Posted by Lagnar View Post
I haven't left the house since March 11 except to get the mail. I can comfortably stay put for months if I need to.



What do you want me to do? Exactly.

Maybe we can set up roadblocks and close all the airports. Except for the foreigners who want to leave.

In case you need to read it again:

My state has been locked down. Some cities by force.
Apologies, i misread the intention of your post then.
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Old 03-28-2020, 04:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wreckoning View Post
That 30% needing ICU number isn't close to accurate.
So assuming that your not just trolling, what % do you think would be more fitting?
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Old 03-28-2020, 04:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Wreckoning View Post
That 30% needing ICU number isn't close to accurate.
Your source for this statement?

Funny you asked but seem to already have your mind made up?

ETA:

The numbers that I used again are found throughout this very forum.

Of course you didn't really offer any numbers at all.
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Last edited by Aceoky; 03-28-2020 at 04:51 PM..
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Old 03-28-2020, 04:17 PM
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Mike should find another hobby, more fitting for everyone IMO
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Old 03-28-2020, 04:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aceoky View Post
Your source for this statement?

Funny you asked but seem to already have your mind made up?
I think depending on your source and the lack of data, this will vary (possibly) by a lot.

According to WebMD:
"Estimates so far show that about 6% of people who have COVID-19 get critically sick. And about 1 in 4 of them may need a ventilator to help them breathe. But the picture is changing quickly..."
https://www.webmd.com/lung/coronavirus-ventilators

There are other interesting peer-reviewed articles that provide information leading me to think some deaths (while unintentional) may/could be caused by improper use of a ventilator, vice the virus itself, yet counted in the deaths caused by the virus numbers.

According to an Anesthesia Publication, ASA:
"Mechanical ventilation, though vital in supporting respiratory function in patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure or ARDS, may promote lung damage, a phenomenon known as ventilator-induced lung injury.28 Currently, we lack any guidelines or evidence to help us manage invasive mechanical ventilation in critically ill patients with COVID-19. It is well advised to adopt the guidelines established for patients with ARDS,29,30 with appropriate modifications based on the firsthand patient care experience in Wuhan (table 5). This is justified as 67% of the ICU patients developed ARDS based on the recent report.3"
https://anesthesiology.pubs.asahq.or...icleid=2763453
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Old 03-28-2020, 04:40 PM
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Just like the main thread, this one is turning into a battle of statistics.

It depends on who is creating them, what location they are for and how much the media has inflated them.

The world and the US are not a homogeneous bucket of people.

People who test positive in my state with mild symptoms are sent home. Because there is NOTHING to treat. People with serious symptoms are admitted to the hospital.

This is from 2 days ago:

Quote:
People in about 90% of cases in Utah fully recover on their own at home, without requiring hospitalization, Dunn said. Of the approximately 10% who do go to the hospital, about half require intensive care. All people who are hospitalized currently due to COVID-19 are expected to make a full recovery, she added.

Utah's hospitalization rate for COVID-19 is lower than that of other states. Dunn said it is due, in part, to Utah's population being younger than other states and because the state is doing social distancing well.
https://www.ksl.com/article/46735091...-officials-say

Utah Department of Health state epidemiologist Dr. Angela Dunn.
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Old 03-28-2020, 04:50 PM
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So about 50% of those hospitalized In Utah require intensive care according to that
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Old 03-28-2020, 05:19 PM
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That does bring up an important point though:

I "should " have stated it varies depending on age, other health issues And Location" - it is now corrected.
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Old 03-28-2020, 06:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Justme11 View Post
I have seen zero eye protection so far.
Social distancing still isn't a thing here. Sigh.

I went out wearing goggles once. They kept fogging over. I tried vented and non-vented, same thing. I wear glasses, dunno if that has anything to do with it. Anyway, I ended up switching to a face shield. I figure that's better than nothing. Since it goes down past my chin I figure it keeps a lot of droplets from reaching my N95, too.

I remember when I bought several face shields back in January. I thought it was overkill at the time...
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Old 03-28-2020, 06:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrayFoal2 View Post
Social distancing still isn't a thing here. Sigh.

I went out wearing goggles once. They kept fogging over. I tried vented and non-vented, same thing. I wear glasses, dunno if that has anything to do with it. Anyway, I ended up switching to a face shield. I figure that's better than nothing. Since it goes down past my shin I figure it keeps a lot of droplets from reaching my N95, too.

I remember when I bought several face shields back in January. I thought it was overkill at the time...
Yes, most goggles fog up making them useful only briefly.
They have an anti fogging solution you can spray on that helps a little.

My 3M full facemask respirator doesn't fog though. Not sure what they did on that design to achieve that. I would feel goofy wearing that into a grocery store though.

Face shield is probably a good solution.
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Old 03-29-2020, 02:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Justme11 View Post
Yes, most goggles fog up making them useful only briefly.

My 3M full facemask respirator doesn't fog though. Not sure what they did on that design to achieve that. I would feel goofy wearing that into a grocery store though.

Face shield is probably a good solution.
I would feel goofier if I was came home and gave a deadly disease to my family.

Get over it. Nobody cares. The last two times I went to a store I went full face respirator. Nobody cares. This isn't the before times anymore. Oh brave new world...
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Old 03-29-2020, 06:45 AM
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Lets party like its 1984...

https://youtu.be/D4GEZjUTkqc
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Old 03-29-2020, 08:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aerindel View Post
I would feel goofier if I was came home and gave a deadly disease to my family.

Get over it. Nobody cares. The last two times I went to a store I went full face respirator. Nobody cares. This isn't the before times anymore. Oh brave new world...
I already had the bug, so am not worried.
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Old 03-29-2020, 08:29 AM
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Originally Posted by Justme11 View Post
I already had the bug, so am not worried.
You should be.

There’s no proof of immunity post exposure.

Actually anecdotal reports of the exact opposite (worse second time). Albeit that was out if China before they went dark.

Currently am throwing all China data completely out the window. So there’s that.
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Old 03-29-2020, 09:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Camelfilter View Post
You should be.

There’s no proof of immunity post exposure.

Actually anecdotal reports of the exact opposite (worse second time). Albeit that was out if China before they went dark.

Currently am throwing all China data completely out the window. So there’s that.
Not worried. I believe I know what all this "second time" reporting is.

The virus goes straight to your lings and kills the cells that support the cilia.
Your body kills the virus if you are lucky, leaving you with lungs full of glorp that you are not coughing up because you lack the cilia. You are tired, and prone to bacterial pneumonia during this period. If you get that, it will seem like you caught it a second time. You didn't. It simply transitioned from a viral pneumonia to a bacterial one.

Then, a month later, your lungs regrow the cells and cilia. Now you start really coughing up the glorp. Which some might also interpret as a return of the virus.


If you are still alive a month later, your body definitely developed an immunity and killed the virus with it. There is no way you would lose that immunity in a month. (in my humble opinion).

How long does that immunity last? Well for that, you need long term data which is of course not available. I would think the immunity would last as long as for other similar virus's. Couple years at least?

People should avoid ascribing supernatural powers to this virus.
It is a nasty little SOB that goes straight for your lungs. But most people will survive it. But you should definitely be on a good antibiotic pretty much for a month to protect against that round 2 bacterial infection which has a good chance of hitting you otherwise.
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Old 03-29-2020, 09:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Justme11 View Post
Not worried. I believe I know what all this "second time" reporting is.

The virus goes straight to your lings and kills the cells that support the cilia.
Your body kills the virus if you are lucky, leaving you with lungs full of glorp that you are not coughing up because you lack the cilia. You are tired, and prone to bacterial pneumonia during this period. If you get that, it will seem like you caught it a second time. You didn't. It simply transitioned from a viral pneumonia to a bacterial one.

Then, a month later, your lungs regrow the cells and cilia. Now you start really coughing up the glorp. Which some might also interpret as a return of the virus.


If you are still alive a month later, your body definitely developed an immunity and killed the virus with it. There is no way you would lose that immunity in a month. (in my humble opinion).

How long does that immunity last? Well for that, you need long term data which is of course not available. I would think the immunity would last as long as for other similar virus's. Couple years at least?

People should avoid ascribing supernatural powers to this virus.
It is a nasty little SOB that goes straight for your lungs. But most people will survive it. But you should definitely be on a good antibiotic pretty much for a month to protect against that round 2 bacterial infection which has a good chance of hitting you otherwise.
Interesting theory, noted.

As to folks ascribing “supernatural powers” to the virus? Agree. However also notable is that it is Novel. Which means never seen/new. We all have a lot to learn about it. So best to park assumptions, for the time being.

IMO.
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Old 03-29-2020, 01:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Camelfilter View Post
Interesting theory, noted.

As to folks ascribing “supernatural powers” to the virus? Agree. However also notable is that it is Novel. Which means never seen/new. We all have a lot to learn about it. So best to park assumptions, for the time being.

IMO.
Fauci speculates that 100,000 to 200,000 might die from the Kung Flu.

Maybe he'll be right.

Back in 2018 80,000 people died from the flu. And that's with a vaccine.

Imagine what it could have been without.

===

Which begs the question:

A vaccine for the Kung Flu will be developed and rolled out for the NEXT TIME it shows up. Will the anti-vaxers take it or not?
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Old 03-29-2020, 01:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Justme11 View Post
They have an anti fogging solution you can spray on that helps a little.
Hey, I have some of that for my swim goggles, totally forgot about it. Thanks for the reminder!

Quote:
Originally Posted by GrayFoal2 View Post
Since it goes down past my shin I figure it keeps a lot of droplets from reaching my N95, too.
I meant it goes down past my CHIN, not my shin, hahaha - corrected it in my original post. That would be one long face shield.
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Old 03-29-2020, 02:59 PM
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Originally Posted by leadcounsel View Post
Two basic options.

A:
Grind the economy to a halt, isolate, and stamp out the virus and much as possible. Economy takes a temporary painful hit, but we save lives and salvage healthcare. This gives us time to ramp up medical personnel, make and distribute needed PPE and equipment like ventilators, get more beds and staff, test and develop treatments, work on a vaccine, and prepare for war. Ease into this fight, and slowly release the economy to rebuild, maybe in the summer if there's evidence of a viral slowdown.

B:
Ignore this, spread it around, 100,000,000 get ill and 20% need hospitals in April and May. Most die. We kill off our medical staff short on PPE and equipment, or drive them off due to fatigue and lost morale, or have them all quarantined. We fail to gain medical staff b/c it doesn't make a good recruiting poster. We collapse our medical system to the ground. Tens of millions of people die from otherwise survivable car accidents, heart attacks, blood clots, strokes, diabetes, spider bites, and stab wounds and sepsis.

The collateral effect is to completely collapse our economy because of the spread of death and virus, like what occurred in 1918 where entire towns were wiped out and families entirely lost. Every company is shattered with death and financial ruin.

And a secondary effect is a weakened military.

So Option B causes massive death, collapsed healthcare, and then collapsed economy and weakened military...
That's pretty much the way I see it. Most governments of the world, across the political spectrum, are seeing it about the same way. This is a big deal, and there will be a high cost economically either way.
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