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Old 07-30-2019, 08:55 AM
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H1N1 has reared its ugly head here in South Africa. One of the plastic surgeons on the faculty here where I work got it a few weeks ago and he is an avid jogger and health and fitness type. He is 58 years old and told us last night that he narrowly avoided a ventilator because of his level of fitness, but was on oxygen for some time. And now, even though his chest x-ray is normal, he still cannot walk up a flight of stairs. His resting pulse used to be in the 50's but now is in the 70's and goes up into the 90's if he only eats a meal. He had a newly diagnosed mitral heart valve regurgitation and believes it was probably from the virus causing a myocarditis and damaging the valve. If this thing gets out widely it could cause some massive problems. I have a new found respect for this virus. Having a heads up and forewarning will be extremely difficult at best. But I respect what the OP is saying about TPTB getting ready for a pandemic. It could happen.
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Old 08-01-2019, 08:53 AM
Herd Sniper Herd Sniper is offline
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It is just a matter of time before we get nailed with a new or upgraded version of a flu strain or even one of Ma Nature's really mean bugs like the Black Plague. Because of all the variables, there will be no way for us to easily stop the spread of a virus in many cases. We can, however, reduce the amount of damage it does and reduce how fast it spreads by using simple control techniques like frequently washing our hands with soap and water.

So the speed at which a disease spreads will vary on its mode of travel. Airborne diseases will spread faster and easier than those that require direct contact from person-to-person. Diseases that can live on surfaces like door knobs can spread faster than those that don't. So that means if we wash or clean surfaces that get touched, like doorknobs, cellphones and steering wheels we can also help reduce the spread of some diseases.

It's the small things that matter when it comes to slowing down and then stopping and then beating the spread of any disease. Forethought is your best ally when fighting any enemy be it a disease or enemy force so it doesn't hurt to study up on controlling viruses.
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Old 08-02-2019, 08:16 AM
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I agree...Hand washing is underrated and many people do not realize that is the best way to avoid the flu and other contagious diseases.
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Old 08-02-2019, 09:19 AM
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Default What if a disease changes its transmission vector?

What would happen if an existing disease were to change its mode of transmission?

For example: what if rabies became transmissible via airborne infection? Instead of through the saliva of an infected carrier, as it is now.

I know it might sound like the plot of a sci-fi movie. But imagine if (through either deliberate genetic manipulation, or natural mutation) rabies changed how it spreads.

A literal "Zombie Apocalypse"?
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Old 08-02-2019, 10:27 AM
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I saw this interesting article about a transmittable form of cancer in dogs that spread around the world. It's not quite a pandemic, but there are lots of things that spread easily and kill their hosts.

How a 6,000-Year-Old Dog Cancer Spread Around the World
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Old 08-02-2019, 12:47 PM
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What would happen if an existing disease were to change its mode of transmission?

What you are referring to is actually called "transmutation" of a disease or virus. It actually does happen. Keep in mind that such a switch generally takes many, many years and a number of movements from one host to another host and on and on and on until just the right host and circumstances come together. When everything is finally perfect, the disease will the move in a different way, a different speed or through a different host.

A good example would be for the HIV virus to go airborne instead of requiring physical contact. If you look at the HIV virus, if or when it goes airborne what that means is that it becomes more mobile and it will have a faster transfer time. Any high speed disease or virus with a fast transfer time also becomes more deadly. While HIV is presently a slow and lingering way to die, the length of time for the duration of the illness might also change in which you contact the "new and improved HIV virus" end up sick for just a few days instead of years and then die. So all the switches and changes in the HIV virus would fall under the definition of transmutations.

People who have studied viruses know and understand this very flexible and radical way that Ma Nature can suddenly change the playing field to her advantage.
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Old 08-02-2019, 02:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Im RIght View Post
.... 20 years into this, I still haven't caught much worth talking about

EDIT: Your research would probably be best aimed at how to mitigate a cytokine storm, as this is what you are actually concerned with.

How likely is it that you can catch airborne viruses through your eyes?
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Old 08-05-2019, 07:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stoveman View Post
How likely is it that you can catch airborne viruses through your eyes?
Not very likely.
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Old 08-09-2019, 05:35 PM
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Here's another issue that our liberal friends fail to consider... There is a very real threat to them and their agenda that if they allow too many foreign illegal immigrants into the country that sooner or later one of them will be the cause of a massive pandemic. While that in itself would be a bad thing for their agenda, what would really hurt their cause is that their one sick socialist cause member has managed to wipe out hundreds of thousands of their potential voters in one fell swoop by simply showing up sick and untreated. It would be like an extremely sick person from Mexico crossing over and infecting other Hispanic people who were sheltering him from the immigration authorities. All the people doing the sheltering become sick and end up helping to spread the disease that the first sick person had.

In a way, while the death of many people can be seen as a negative effect, in another way, the cause of the introduction - via an illegal alien because of a socialist agenda issue - can cause more problems than some political pundits might want to consider. So sometimes mankind actually causes some of his own problems by being blind to certain factors to further some other kind of issue in some manner. What's sad is that maybe if this person had gotten inoculated in some fashion that little bit of prevention might have been enough for him to help fight off the next virus a little bit better. Instead, he ends up getting deathly sick and passing it on to other people in a unique circumstance that devastates a lot of innocent, unprotected people.
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Old 08-10-2019, 08:02 PM
WilliamAshley WilliamAshley is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gulcher View Post
How long would it take for a pandemic to sweep the USA today. Let's pick a pandemic like the Spanish Flu. What's your research say?
I don't think the Spanish Flu is repeatable unless the health system breaks down in the US.

I do think that the states health officials and CDC would be onto any serious issue.

You know the flu killls lots of people still to this day. There are programs to give people the chance to get flu shots.

Other than this most other contageons that don't have an incredibly high rate of transmission will be stopped or contained.

Personally I don't think a repeat of the spanish flu is possible if the checks and balances are implemented properly.

Now is there a risk of a dangerous biological agent spreading, sure. It could spread in a matter of days if the transmission rate - how contageous it was. Howver short of biological warfare, there really isn't anything out there we know of that will spread so fast it won't be containable. Something that quickly got worse however could be more of a risk like a bacterial agent /superbug that was incurable -- -something wors is keeping secret large swaths of information about dozens of recent incidents involving some of the world’s most dangerous bacteria and viruses.e than superTB or other superbugs that are mostly confined to hospitals.

I would not rule out a biological warfare agent to spread throughout the continental US within a few days, and go to the scale of the spanish flu within a month or two. However I don't thik it is possible for this to repeat with a naturally occuring virus/bacteria


If it ain't a warfare agent it will be stopped unless there are screwups.

In the case of biological warfare though you would have to expect many patient 0's so it wouldn't be just from one point of origin, you would have so many points of infection and the spread would be made faster by having it deployed all over the place in urban areas mostly transit locations, businesses, sports facilities etc..

is keeping secret large swaths of information about dozens of recent incidents involving some of the world’s most dangerous bacteria and viruses.
The soviets had an advanced biowarfare program. I woud only assume the Chinese program is currently more advanced than the soviets, countries like Russia, may or may not have had advances since the soviet era.


Most people wouldn't even know it was a warfare agent until people started to go the hospital in multiple number and doctors didn't overlap it with more common illnesses.


Because these special warfare agents are so rare, most medical doctors wouldn't know what they are dealing with, and very well might themselves be killed by it before they created a case history that matched other cases. It'd probably take a week before the CDC was on it, and by that time if the rate of transmission was high enough - and the delay to symptom was long enough, it might be too late to stop the spread.

https://fas.org/nuke/guide/china/cbw/

Wouldn't know what hit America until it was too late to stop it.

Now for the insane fringe concept of a false flag attack by the US deep state on the US population (totally don't think that will happen but presenting it as another angle for a possible event)


Aside from a little bit of seemingly delusional or niche thoughts in the post above it is imporant to consider that the US does also have its own programs and would be a potential source of danger however remote.

https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-...ebola-vaccine/


https://www.cdc.gov/cpr/dsat/what-is-select-agents.htm

https://www.selectagents.gov/

Also consider

http://usatoday.com/story/news/2017/...ents/95972126/

Were arn't all dead so it can't be as bad as they are making it out to be but
Quote:
is keeping secret large swaths of information about dozens of recent incidents involving some of the world’s most dangerous bacteria and viruses.
The other consideration though is that countries like Russia and China hopefully have a better safety record than the US.. but your guess is as good as mine. ...

...

...


At this point we don't need to fear nature, down the road antibiotics won't be usable for natural stuff out there but by then we should have nanoinjections and energetic forms of targetting specific pathogens.

There is a constant potential threat from Germ warfare agents though, they could really us up.

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Old 08-10-2019, 09:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Im RIght View Post
I would suggest researching how the end of WW1 and the return home of the soldiers from Europe significantly worsened the epidemic. Roughly 1/3 of all WW1 casualties are attributed to spanish flu. It was winding down until the war ended and a new wave came about from those returning home.


The flu does not spread that quickly. You can actually look at a map on the news in flu season, and it will tell you the states where outbreaks are occurring.


Various sources of information exist from CDC to folks on you tube, and here... Not all are 100% accurate, so a good blend will give you the best chance of seeing the trees from the forest.


Self quarantine is typically when you're concerned about being a carrier, and you stay away from people to prevent spading the illness, is that what you are asking?

If you are asking about isolating yourself, then you need to have a plan on how to do that. Most people have jobs to go to, and bills to pay, so not showing up is not a real option... And, who's to say community A is better than community B. And why would A let you in in from B? And what are you going to do when a person approaches you or your family shoot them?



I'm not really concerned about a contagion/flu pandemic. I see sick people all day long, and 20 years into this, I still haven't caught much worth talking about

To survive a flu like epidemic requires medications to help reduce fever, control nausea, and access to IV fluids if you can't tolerate PO. Keep in mind young people are most at risk for "novel" flu illnesses. They are most likely to develop a cytokine storm - that's what can kill ya. However, most people with a normal immune system tend to do fine. Having some zithromax and steroids to treat the subsequent pneumonia will probably help also and the steroids might work out OK as they provide a bit of immune supression if a cytokine storm does occurs...

The key is maintaining hydration and adequate nutrition throughout.

EDIT: Your research would probably be best aimed at how to mitigate a cytokine storm, as this is what you are actually concerned with.
mitigate... wait I thought we wanted the snowflakes gone. I am so confused. lol
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Old 09-18-2019, 08:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Stoveman View Post
How likely is it that you can catch airborne viruses through your eyes?
Not very likely.

I'm not so sure. Medical ppe often included eye protection. And I remember Ebola was hiding in a patient's eye, found when it changed his eye color to green. You are often warned don't touch your eyes or face.

I'm surprised no one has said anything about elderberry syrup with zinc. Nothing I'm really knowledgeable about but it seems real popular as an alternative medicine.
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Old 09-18-2019, 09:36 PM
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IMO the elderberry is so refined now they took out the good stuff... and the daily dose they want for you (1 ounce or more a day) = 9 ounce bottle for $20 means a lot can't afford it, especially if they have a large family.

I remember reading about a family with asthma, they would buy one inhaler and pass it around every day, it was cheaper they felt.

I am a fan of two time honored remedies: Vitamin C, and Oregano Oil. Both can be cheaply obtained and have good results on colds in the past. My husband prefers Olive Leaf but that wasn't working for me.

I take Vitamin C in powder form and Oregano oil in capsules.
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Old 09-18-2019, 09:39 PM
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Try Garrett's The Coming Plague.
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Old 09-19-2019, 10:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmas View Post
Originally Posted by Stoveman View Post
How likely is it that you can catch airborne viruses through your eyes?
Not very likely.

I'm not so sure. Medical ppe often included eye protection. And I remember Ebola was hiding in a patient's eye, found when it changed his eye color to green. You are often warned don't touch your eyes or face.

I'm surprised no one has said anything about elderberry syrup with zinc. Nothing I'm really knowledgeable about but it seems real popular as an alternative medicine.
Most medical eye pro is to help prevent contact with aerosolized blood, geww, body fluids and such.

Not “airborne” viruses. Significant difference.

More care for the preparedness minded should be given to the “simple things” like c-difficile (nasty nasty GI tract invasive), which is a hardy & hard to kill once on hard hard surfaces. Hand hygiene always, care and surface cleaning in food prep etc etc.


Honestly, none of this discussion matters too much. If there were an airborne virus which was causing a collapse, it would be the rare truly isolated folks which would not contract it. EVERYONE ELSE would be exposed just in there day to day, before recognizing such & being able to MOPP suit up.
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Old 09-19-2019, 11:27 PM
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This thread isn't about the MRE cheese...
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Old 10-20-2019, 12:18 PM
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One factor is the period from when a person is infected and they show signs of infection. The longer the time frame the more likely a larger the number of people infected before any warning would go out. Just using common methods of staying clean would help keep one safe. Having mask and hand cleaner before it is needed, and using them, would cut your chance of catching anything.
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Old 10-20-2019, 02:10 PM
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Don't know why an isolated homestead would be safer in a pandemic than a suburban home.

You go to the store to buy supplies. The next day you hear about this new disease in town. Oops, maybe you should have told the store clerk to keep the change.
Your isolated homestead will likely have extra mosquitos, rats, birds and feral animals to carry the bugs to you and your garden.
The mailman and the paperboy can bring you more than the news.
Your daughter, afraid her daughter is coming down with the bug, will show up.
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Old 10-20-2019, 03:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stoveman View Post
How likely is it that you can catch airborne viruses through your eyes?
Burkas for prog chicks?
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Old 10-20-2019, 04:34 PM
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Lots of food for thought here , thank you. I was thinking how the expansion of what we eat altering our genetics and also genetic engineering and foods etc, changing our systems to something more vulnerable . And also just the sheer number of adaptations and specializations we see in life, there must be a lot more pathogens ( not sure if I am using that word correctly) than we even know of and some evolving , others being engineered , and some variables that no one will ever be able to calculate outcomes that could come back on us . I am not sure if my concerns , even on the soil microbiomes being changed etc if we could inadvertently not make a situation where a pandemic would be even more devastating than we could even calculate ?
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