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Old 02-26-2020, 08:02 AM
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Originally Posted by hardcalibres View Post
But those who don't believe in natural selection can't be harmed by it.
???

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Originally Posted by hardcalibres View Post
But do let us know if you get sick.....
Well, so didnít feel too good yesterday morning but I recall getting sick before this.

So, ~50 Americans have this virus and with a 2.5% fatality rate perhaps 1 American will die due to the disease. I suspect many more will suffer and die from the cure.
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Old 02-26-2020, 01:59 PM
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My wife is from the infected area. Her Dad in in the hospital now.

She said: and you think the Chinese government is telling the truth?
The Chinese people do not"
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Old 02-26-2020, 02:12 PM
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Originally Posted by PeterEnergy View Post
???



Well, so didnít feel too good yesterday morning but I recall getting sick before this.

So, ~50 Americans have this virus and with a 2.5% fatality rate perhaps 1 American will die due to the disease. I suspect many more will suffer and die from the cure.
Again...its not likely to stay only 50.....

But, also again...it doesn't matter if it does....if it blows up in the rest of the world, which looks probable, thousands will die here just from the economic depression.
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Old 02-26-2020, 03:17 PM
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Exclamation Death Rate Calculation

The current train of thought has people calculating the Coronavirus death rate by dividing the total deaths by the number of cases. Some of those cases are going to turn into deaths so the death rate of 3.4% is too low. (2770/81280)

If you look at only those who are no longer afflicted by Coronavirus you get a better and more stable picture. Divide deaths by the sum of deaths plus cured and the death rate becomes 8.3%. (2770/2770+30322).

[Figures are as of 3PM 26 February 2020]

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6
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Old 02-26-2020, 03:27 PM
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Yep. Throw in the fact that there's only about 3 countries providing data that's worth a crap (Iran being one of them, ironically), and you find yourself with a mathematical s-sandwich. The truth of the matter is that we will simply never really know.
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Old 02-26-2020, 06:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Iamfarticus View Post
I've read that the mortality rate is like 2 or 3%. It will be fatal to the weak and elderly more than anyone else.

What are the stats on the good old flu deaths for the past few years? I just read one for 2019, 8.6 in 100k, which is .826% mortality. .
Based on those numbers, I'm getting 0.00826% mortality.

To make it easier:

8 in 100 would be 8%
8 in 1,000 would be 0.8%
8 in 10,000 would be 0.08%
8 in 100,000 would be 0.008%

I didn't check the original numbers of 8.6 in 100k, just the calculation itself.
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Old 02-27-2020, 12:20 AM
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One wonders if this is going to propel us back into the dark ages. It sometimes feels as if this is eerily reminiscent of some bad plague movie.
The way the case fatality rate is calculated is deaths/deaths+recovered. Estimates about lethality of a pandemic can only be calculated by historians, assuming enough forensic evidence is around to collate data. And assuming there are enough people not busy trying to provide for themselves and their families who can process such data.
I find it curious the US has not had more cases, but it is most likely to not being tested. This is adding up to be a rather monumental event in all our lives.
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Old 02-27-2020, 12:48 AM
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You have to weight the mortality rate because as infections rise so do hospitalizations... and at some point infections exceed capacity and start hitting the fatality column...
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Old 02-27-2020, 12:51 AM
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Originally Posted by annoyinglylongname View Post
One wonders if this is going to propel us back into the dark ages. .
.
No.

The economic impacts may (or May not) be severe, but the mortality rate isn't high enough to (as an example) kill everyone who knows how to run a power plant.

This is merely one more speed bump in humanity's history.

Like the 1918 flu (worth reading about) it may suck/be terminal for individuals. But this is NOT TEOTWAWKI.
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Old 02-27-2020, 01:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Nomad, 2nd View Post
No.

The economic impacts may (or May not) be severe, but the mortality rate isn't high enough to (as an example) kill everyone who knows how to run a power plant.

This is merely one more speed bump in humanity's history.

Like the 1918 flu (worth reading about) it may suck/be terminal for individuals. But this is NOT TEOTWAWKI.
What he said. This may be interesting times but this isn't the big one.
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Old 02-27-2020, 09:36 AM
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Mortality rates will vary by area/nation. Medical care is not the same in all areas. Secondary infection is a second issue. If it gets established here we have some populations which will be affected more than others. Our homeless are not in prime health so they will have a higher rate of death. Druggies and alcoholics again have health issues/weakened immune systems. The virus could have some benefits for us. I would suggest that if the virus hits us, it would be prudent not to stop and give the corner pan handler cash. Might be a good idea to avoid mass transit systems. I would look at the death rate of China as a parallel to our nation it we get hit.
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Old 02-27-2020, 09:46 AM
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There is no way to calculate this until after the fact. Additionally, since we won't know how many people were untested, with minor cases not requiring medical care, we won't have a real number of total cases.

The case fatality rate and total mortality rates will have to be calculated based on some magic formula...and then they'll massage the numbers for whatever political advantage they can make of it.
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Old 02-27-2020, 10:07 AM
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What some are saying is that if someone has had it and overcome it once, their system is weakened and a second bout with it is lethal due to the strain on the heart and respiratory system.
People are not developing any natural immunity to it.
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Old 02-27-2020, 11:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PromptCritical View Post
The current train of thought has people calculating the Coronavirus death rate by dividing the total deaths by the number of cases. Some of those cases are going to turn into deaths so the death rate of 3.4% is too low. (2770/81280)

If you look at only those who are no longer afflicted by Coronavirus you get a better and more stable picture. Divide deaths by the sum of deaths plus cured and the death rate becomes 8.3%. (2770/2770+30322).

[Figures are as of 3PM 26 February 2020]

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6
That's how I've been doing my own calculation all along. The sub-5% rates invite disbelief, IMO, given the other stats.
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Old 02-27-2020, 11:56 AM
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Current Earth estimated population is 7 billion. 5% global death rate is 350M. Simplistic terms 220 countries is 1.59M deaths per country.

Some countries will be hit harder than others.
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Old 02-27-2020, 12:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oneeyeross View Post
There is no way to calculate this until after the fact. Additionally, since we won't know how many people were untested, with minor cases not requiring medical care, we won't have a real number of total cases.

The case fatality rate and total mortality rates will have to be calculated based on some magic formula...and then they'll massage the numbers for whatever political advantage they can make of it.
Due to the lag between positive testing and death, we won't know the real number until this blows over.

Also, there are probably a lot of people who get it, think it is a regular strain of flue, never get tested, and ride it out. So the number of actual infections will be underreported.
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Old 02-27-2020, 04:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PromptCritical View Post
The current train of thought has people calculating the Coronavirus death rate by dividing the total deaths by the number of cases. Some of those cases are going to turn into deaths so the death rate of 3.4% is too low. (2770/81280)

If you look at only those who are no longer afflicted by Coronavirus you get a better and more stable picture. Divide deaths by the sum of deaths plus cured and the death rate becomes 8.3%. (2770/2770+30322).

[Figures are as of 3PM 26 February 2020]

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6
i strongly disagree with your methodology. A tremendous number of people will get a very mild sickness and never go to the hospital to be tested. The rates reported will be way too high because only the sickest people will go to the hospital where they end up getting tested.

The cruise ship is probably the best source of numbers because it is a complete infected population. all the people are known and will be tracked. 700 infected, 4 dead so far. (.5%)
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Old 02-27-2020, 04:14 PM
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No telling where the virus came from, but from this point, I think DARWIN is going to run with it.
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Old 02-27-2020, 04:25 PM
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Concur that the commonly cited 2% is a fantasy.

We simply don't know and may never know. The largest hit area is China which everyone knows is under reporting. Based on daily doubling rates in areas that are testing and reporting like Italy and S. Korea and now in Iran where they poo-pooed it and now both the Health Minister and the Vice President are infected, this is highly transmissible.

It's simply foolish to believe in a metro area of 11 million of Wuhan, or a nation of 1.4 BILLION like China, that only 80,000 were infected and 2500 died. That is a total farse.

Having said that, if we had accurate numbers the numerator would be total dead and the denominator would be closed cases. Using the "fake" current figures, that would be approximately 2900 dead divided by 33,000 closed cases. Almost 9% fatality. 91% recovery. I don't like those odds...

You cannot include the total open cases because they have not been resolved yet. We don't know if they live or die.
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Old 02-27-2020, 04:46 PM
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We are hearing rumors of the virus in central California. The target area, is an area with a tremendous illegal population. Now look are areas with large illegal population from asia. California's open borders and sanctuary movement makes us ripe for the virus. it will be under reported due to the illegals, the homeless and the state just will not want people to know it is here. I have not done any follow up on the reports in Tulare county and can not verify their veracity. Bottom line is: it here, it will spread and it will cost us big dollars in medical expense, loss of life and economic set back. Just remember, for each death reported, there are more out there. I remember when HIV is killing certain populations many of the deaths were listed as the secondary infection and not the primary.
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