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Old 07-25-2019, 07:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Jash View Post
75% die before they reach you. Ok, that still leaves possibly tens of millions of people roaming the countryside looking for food. Many will band together forming armed groups with members that have had military training.

You really wanna go up against maybe several dozen trained men with plenty of guns and a high motivation to eat?

Unless you are extremely remote, nowhere is going to be safe once the hoards start roaming.
Glad to see I rubbed off on someone.

When I first talked about refugee lines and the reasons why governments will dump billions of dollars onto what amounts to human locusts, folks laughed at it.

I had an article saved that explained the US military refugee study from a couple of decades back. I wish I knew what HD it's on. That study showed that something like 90% of a given pop would/could make something like 25-30 miles a day. Not sure on the numbers but it was large. The 90% never falls, either. What falls out unable to continue is more than made up of new refugees driven out by the refugee line. It takes a lack of new victims or serious geographical impedance to stop one. In a bad enough situation, the gov will blow the bridges and tunnels. Anyone that thinks "X miles makes me safe" isn't thinking.
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Old 07-25-2019, 08:58 AM
America's Patriot America's Patriot is offline
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You guys are all doom and gloom... I think YOUR numbers are ridiculous (but my opinion of course). And regardless of where you are, you'll eventually get at least a "visitor"... my point which you missed, was that the average schmuck is going to die fairly quickly since they have no skills at all. And no, I don't worry about your 10's of millions, because most aren't going to be randomly wandering the countryside and off in my direction which is nowhere and off the beaten path.

And there is a difference between refugees and what we are talking about here. Refugees can be 10 or 20 thousand people leaving simultaneously. After SHTF, we may have small bands of people grouping together, but an organized walk is not likely to happen unless they are being herded by the military.

There are always exceptions to the rule, so the groups of ex-military hit squads your talking about, would probably fit in well considering my family is ex-military and police officers...

I'm assuming that the 10 million people you are talking about, must be over the entire country, because the largest cities don't even have 10 million people. And we all know that most are going to stay at home in the city until they can no longer stay there and/or forced to leave...
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Old 07-25-2019, 10:48 AM
Major Mjolnir Major Mjolnir is offline
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Originally Posted by Jojo View Post
You gotta get out of the bubble more. It's currently trendy among hipsters to go urban foraging and they consider insects a delicacy. Lots of apps to teach the newbs.
I am an expert forager in most of the area East of the Mississippi and South of the Ohio and I can tell you for a fact that learning from an 'app', while of some value, is not nearly as effective as steady, repetitive, hands on experience.
A jaunt or two with even a skilled forager is not going to prepare a yuppy to venture into the countryside and 'survive'.
I live in the 'Heartland' and I'd be surprised if once you got past nuts,fruits and berries, and vague remembrances of cattails and dandelions - 90 out of a 100 wouldn't have a clue of what they could or should not forage.
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Old 07-25-2019, 11:12 AM
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Originally Posted by hardcalibres View Post
Really?

5 hours @75mph = 375miles
Area of a circle with radius of 375 miles = 441,786 square miles

Lowest population density state (other than Alaska) is Wyoming with six people per square mile.

That would be about 2.65 million people in a 5 hour radius (on average in Wyoming).

I don't know where you live but it sounds like you are underestimating how many people are within five hours drive of you or perhaps six hours drive away there is a big city.

Either way, the pickings in the sparsely populated states will be also thin of the ground - so any starvation event will just drive the people who are there to travel more widely to find what food there is.

It is a bad idea to be dismissive about what threat other people would pose if they were starving. Sure, make your own decision about whether you want to prepare for those very severe crises - but don't imagine that (should one occur) starving people will not be a very big threat/challenge.
Yes, really.
First off...itís two hours to even GET to the freeway, so maybe I said it wrong.
Secondly, large scale population density maps are not the way to see it.

But then, I probably did exaggerate a bit, or at least rounded down...it may be closer to 1.5 million.

Regardless....itís not 10 million.
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Old 07-25-2019, 12:43 PM
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I grew up on the West Coast where droughts are ever a concern. After I retired I decided to settle somewhere that is NOT drought-prone. Today I live in dense forest where the water table is very shallow. The forest here is lush green all summer long.

There are groups here that meet every weekend to train and practice foraging.

There are Guide schools here that teach a person to be a licensed Guide.

Licensed Guides can take groups out and keep them sheltered and fed for extended hikes.
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Old 07-25-2019, 01:03 PM
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Originally Posted by America's Patriot View Post
You guys are all doom and gloom... I think YOUR numbers are ridiculous
I don't plan for doom and gloom. I prepare for the next power outage or the next snow storm. I don't plan on shooting it out with a million anyones or anythings. I plan to make dinner on my kerosene stove and I make up my own recipes. I *do* read a bit more than most, though.
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Old 07-25-2019, 01:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by randolphrowzeebragg View Post
Thank the merciful Lord that so many people in the US are too fat to fish and hunt.
Obviously you have never been to OK.
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Old 07-25-2019, 02:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Jojo View Post
Obviously you have never been to OK.
https://www.eatthis.com/most-and-lea...merica-ranked/
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Old 07-25-2019, 05:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hardcalibres View Post
Really?

5 hours @75mph = 375miles
Area of a circle with radius of 375 miles = 441,786 square miles

Lowest population density state (other than Alaska) is Wyoming with six people per square mile.

That would be about 2.65 million people in a 5 hour radius (on average in Wyoming).

I don't know where you live but it sounds like you are underestimating how many people are within five hours drive of you or perhaps six hours drive away there is a big city.

Either way, the pickings in the sparsely populated states will be also thin of the ground - so any starvation event will just drive the people who are there to travel more widely to find what food there is.

It is a bad idea to be dismissive about what threat other people would pose if they were starving. Sure, make your own decision about whether you want to prepare for those very severe crises - but don't imagine that (should one occur) starving people will not be a very big threat/challenge.
THAT PRESUPPOSE that;

All the people head in the same direction

that they all have full gas tanks and are driving fuel efficient vehicles

that they are not the huge part of the population that drives on the bottom half of the gas tank. ("Why fill it when it might be cheaper tomorrow and I only buy $5 at a time anyway.)

They actually have a vehicle.

that the vehicle is in good enough shape to make the 375 miles.
************************

I am about 100 miles from the nearest town with pop of over 20,000. About 250 from Detroit Metro area.
Because I am closer to the sunrise side of the state movement East is basically closed off(Its a Lake Huron thing). People can go North, South or West. All the big agriculture (food) is West and South. There is some North but it stops about 40 miles from town and then forest country begins.

If I was starving and had gas for my vehicle I would not go North simply because there is so much more food West or South.
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Old 07-25-2019, 07:14 PM
hardcalibres hardcalibres is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW GUY View Post
THAT PRESUPPOSE that;

All the people head in the same direction

that they all have full gas tanks and are driving fuel efficient vehicles

that they are not the huge part of the population that drives on the bottom half of the gas tank. ("Why fill it when it might be cheaper tomorrow and I only buy $5 at a time anyway.)

They actually have a vehicle.

that the vehicle is in good enough shape to make the 375 miles.
************************
Nope.

If you read what I posted again, you will see I didn't presuppose any of that.

The point of the sorts of stats that I posted are that if even a very small proportion (say 1%) of that 2.65 million people headed in your direction (five hours drive away) and made it that far, that is 26,500 people - which in any sparsely populated rural area would be overwhelming.

Many who choose to homestead, pick nice areas to do so. After all, it is much easier to homestead where the climate and soil are suitable for such things.

Depending upon how nice and well known your area is, maybe more than 1% will head that way.

It is also worth noting that they will not arrive in any area and stay - they will arrive, consume/deplete/destroy resources and then move on - which will spread the trouble even further.

For 99% of people here, if even twenty combat vets with ARs/AKs turn up hungry at their BOL/Homestead, they are done.

So what I am saying is that, even if only a very small proportion of the very big population that is somewhat distant from you, heads that way (and makes it that far), that is still a very big problem.

Quote:
I am about 100 miles from the nearest town with pop of over 20,000. About 250 from Detroit Metro area.
Because I am closer to the sunrise side of the state movement East is basically closed off(Its a Lake Huron thing). People can go North, South or West. All the big agriculture (food) is West and South. There is some North but it stops about 40 miles from town and then forest country begins.

If I was starving and had gas for my vehicle I would not go North simply because there is so much more food West or South.
That sounds OK for that part of the US.

The point of my post was that, where ever you are, you are better off being prepared (mentally, materially and physically) for a big bunch of people to turn up during a very severe crisis/mass starvation event.

The alternative is to tell yourself "Nah, I am far enough away that no one will make it this far", which is in my view (and for very severe crises and almost all preppers) delusional and foolish.
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Old 07-25-2019, 07:20 PM
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Originally Posted by ajole View Post
Yes, really.
First off...it’s two hours to even GET to the freeway, so maybe I said it wrong.
So maybe it really is no really then....


Quote:
Secondly, large scale population density maps are not the way to see it.

But then, I probably did exaggerate a bit, or at least rounded down...it may be closer to 1.5 million.
So it actually was no really then.....

Quote:
Regardless....it’s not 10 million.
Yeah I (really) didn't say it was 10 million.
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Old 07-25-2019, 07:29 PM
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If we had to survive right now on what's just out there in forest, we probably could if we had some basic carbs like rice for calories in addition. There are about a million rabbits, berries, fungi ( which I hate but would eat if I was really hungry) , other green plants you can eat. I am learning about new things one can eat all the time here. Some look like weeds, but they are ok if cooked right. But if SHTF people are probably going to hit the corn fields first. I don't think food is going to be any problem for us, but protection from whoever is going to try to take it away from us is. Almost nobody has a small army to defend what they have. I have stopped worrying about food a while ago.
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Old 07-25-2019, 07:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jojo View Post
Obviously you have never been to OK.
Spent almost a year at Fort Sill getting some training on a new system. Lord, what a state full of hippos. Even most of the older Army guys looked pregnant.
When I wrote "hunt and fish," I didn't mean riding your four-wheeler to some farm field and drinking beer until a deer strolls up, or driving your bass boat on a lake. If a serious crash happens, fuel will be the first thing to go. When that happens the US's supply of lard butts will have the choice of either staying put and hoping for help or beating feet and risking a heat attack or stroke.
Folks deluded enough to believe that 90% of the US pop can walk thirty miles/day must be confusing the US with Africa, where skinnies have to walk long distances to survive.
A good exemplar of US fitness levels is that whale in the White House who thinks that riding a golf cart is exercise and cheeseburgers are health food.
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Old 07-26-2019, 01:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jojo View Post
You gotta get out of the bubble more. It's currently trendy among hipsters to go urban foraging and they consider insects a delicacy. Lots of apps to teach the newbs.
So just how many of those "hipsters" that do urban foraging are going to survive on a handful of handpicked mushrooms and the like with the masses all around them? Maybe you need to get out of your bubble a little more.
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Old 07-26-2019, 01:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hardcalibres View Post
So maybe it really is no really then....




So it actually was no really then.....



Yeah I (really) didn't say it was 10 million.
The person I responded to originally did.

I find it funny that you have literally no idea what itís like here, but you have all the answers.
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Old 07-26-2019, 11:04 AM
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Originally Posted by sonya1 View Post
If we had to survive right now on what's just out there in forest, we probably could if we had some basic carbs like rice for calories in addition. There are about a million rabbits, berries, fungi ( which I hate but would eat if I was really hungry) , other green plants you can eat. I am learning about new things one can eat all the time here. Some look like weeds, but they are ok if cooked right. But if SHTF people are probably going to hit the corn fields first. I don't think food is going to be any problem for us, but protection from whoever is going to try to take it away from us is. Almost nobody has a small army to defend what they have. I have stopped worrying about food a while ago.
There is a million rabbits now , however now that rabbit hemmorhagic disease virus is spreading from BC , now spread to populations in Washington state and spread on shoes, hay, tires, birds, mozzies and flies. With a lax concern in general and poor biosecurity , it's going to spread . 10 - 15 years from now you may not be finding rabbits so abundant .
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Old 07-26-2019, 02:24 PM
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Every morning I see the snails outside our trailer heading back to bed and think I should grab some and purge them and give them a try with garlic butter but I haven't gotten around to it. I would cook them in wine, finish them off in garlic butter and serve on a bed of dandelion greens and purslane with a few blackberries all from the yard.
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Old 07-26-2019, 02:40 PM
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Louis and Clark nearly starved to death crossing the continual divide. I think the party were really experienced forager's.
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Old 07-26-2019, 03:02 PM
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Louis and Clark nearly starved to death crossing the continual divide. I think the party were really experienced forager's.
On a strange continent with unfamiliar flora and fauna.
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Old 07-26-2019, 03:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sonya1 View Post
If we had to survive right now on what's just out there in forest, we probably could if we had some basic carbs like rice for calories in addition. There are about a million rabbits, berries, fungi ( which I hate but would eat if I was really hungry) , other green plants you can eat. I am learning about new things one can eat all the time here. Some look like weeds, but they are ok if cooked right. But if SHTF people are probably going to hit the corn fields first. I don't think food is going to be any problem for us, but protection from whoever is going to try to take it away from us is. Almost nobody has a small army to defend what they have. I have stopped worrying about food a while ago.
IF YOU starve in FLorida you are waaaayyyy too picky.

That place has so much food in the swamps and Everglades .. last estimate was about a million gators in Florida. Millions of snakes and large rodents, although the nutria or more to Louisiana end from what I have heard.
Not like the hard frozen north.
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