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Old 07-26-2019, 10:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Gulcher View Post
That is the root of the problem and why the Spanish Flu killed 50 M globally last time, at a time when people were not arriving by the many thousands per day via aircraft straight into major urban centers, like today.
I would suggest researching how the end of WW1 and the return home of the soldiers from Europe significantly worsened the epidemic. Roughly 1/3 of all WW1 casualties are attributed to spanish flu. It was winding down until the war ended and a new wave came about from those returning home.

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By the time the government clues in and reacts its already spreading out from urban centers.
The flu does not spread that quickly. You can actually look at a map on the news in flu season, and it will tell you the states where outbreaks are occurring.

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So back to my question what do you watch?
Various sources of information exist from CDC to folks on you tube, and here... Not all are 100% accurate, so a good blend will give you the best chance of seeing the trees from the forest.

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Do you wait until people on your street are dying to self quarantine?
Self quarantine is typically when you're concerned about being a carrier, and you stay away from people to prevent spading the illness, is that what you are asking?

If you are asking about isolating yourself, then you need to have a plan on how to do that. Most people have jobs to go to, and bills to pay, so not showing up is not a real option... And, who's to say community A is better than community B. And why would A let you in in from B? And what are you going to do when a person approaches you or your family shoot them?

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Your protocol if you will?
I'm not really concerned about a contagion/flu pandemic. I see sick people all day long, and 20 years into this, I still haven't caught much worth talking about

To survive a flu like epidemic requires medications to help reduce fever, control nausea, and access to IV fluids if you can't tolerate PO. Keep in mind young people are most at risk for "novel" flu illnesses. They are most likely to develop a cytokine storm - that's what can kill ya. However, most people with a normal immune system tend to do fine. Having some zithromax and steroids to treat the subsequent pneumonia will probably help also and the steroids might work out OK as they provide a bit of immune supression if a cytokine storm does occurs...

The key is maintaining hydration and adequate nutrition throughout.

EDIT: Your research would probably be best aimed at how to mitigate a cytokine storm, as this is what you are actually concerned with.
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Old 07-26-2019, 11:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Im RIght View Post
I would suggest researching how the end of WW1 and the return home of the soldiers from Europe significantly worsened the epidemic. Roughly 1/3 of all WW1 casualties are attributed to spanish flu. It was winding down until the war ended and a new wave came about from those returning home.


The flu does not spread that quickly. You can actually look at a map on the news in flu season, and it will tell you the states where outbreaks are occurring.


Various sources of information exist from CDC to folks on you tube, and here... Not all are 100% accurate, so a good blend will give you the best chance of seeing the trees from the forest.


Self quarantine is typically when you're concerned about being a carrier, and you stay away from people to prevent spading the illness, is that what you are asking?

If you are asking about isolating yourself, then you need to have a plan on how to do that. Most people have jobs to go to, and bills to pay, so not showing up is not a real option... And, who's to say community A is better than community B. And why would A let you in in from B? And what are you going to do when a person approaches you or your family shoot them?



I'm not really concerned about a contagion/flu pandemic. I see sick people all day long, and 20 years into this, I still haven't caught much worth talking about

To survive a flu like epidemic requires medications to help reduce fever, control nausea, and access to IV fluids if you can't tolerate PO. Keep in mind young people are most at risk for "novel" flu illnesses. They are most likely to develop a cytokine storm - that's what can kill ya. However, most people with a normal immune system tend to do fine. Having some zithromax and steroids to treat the subsequent pneumonia will probably help also and the steroids might work out OK as they provide a bit of immune supression if a cytokine storm does occurs...

The key is maintaining hydration and adequate nutrition throughout.

EDIT: Your research would probably be best aimed at how to mitigate a cytokine storm, as this is what you are actually concerned with.
Hey thanks for your comments. What kind of steroids? Type that body builders use?
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Old 07-26-2019, 11:54 PM
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Hey thanks for your comments. What kind of steroids? Type that body builders use?
Probably prednisone or prednisilone.
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Old 07-27-2019, 10:43 AM
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Probably prednisone or prednisilone.
OK Thank you
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Old 07-27-2019, 10:50 AM
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Digging around led to this article on Operation Dark Winter. A Gubmint investigation into what would happen in the USA if a bio terrorism agent was released. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Dark_Winter
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Old 07-27-2019, 11:07 AM
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The HTPV (Hate Trump Personality Virus) is already in the pandemic stage.
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Old 07-27-2019, 12:56 PM
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The HTPV (Hate Trump Personality Virus) is already in the pandemic stage.
Yah I watched some advanced cases of that at the Muller inquiry. A lot of foaming at the mouth and rolling around like as if the Exorcist threw Holy Water on Linda Blair.
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Old 07-27-2019, 10:11 PM
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I think the bigger question with these is just at what point do you give up your job and your interaction with the outside world and its resources to isolate yourself, and how long do you wait for it to burn out? Isolate yourself for a year and it may pick back up and make another pass through the population. Or maybe not.
IMHO, for the average Joe/Jane, it would be too late to make such a decision.

They would have already been exposed...

Much depends on the scenario posited, of course. However by the time standard media outlets truly discuss the severity of such a situation, is what Iím referring to.
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Old 07-28-2019, 07:36 AM
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IMHO, for the average Joe/Jane, it would be too late to make such a decision.

They would have already been exposed...

Much depends on the scenario posited, of course. However by the time standard media outlets truly discuss the severity of such a situation, is what Iím referring to.
Average normal people are not preppers. In SHTF, its normal to die. Don't be normal.

The trick will be reading between the lines. Being the person who can watch the same news as everyone else but realize that something is different this time. What this will be I can't say. Just that it seems reasonable that extraordinary events will not manifest like ordinary ones.

Having very limited contact with people normally, will help. It will give you more time.
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Old 07-28-2019, 08:40 AM
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Average normal people are not preppers. In SHTF, its normal to die. Don't be normal.

The trick will be reading between the lines. Being the person who can watch the same news as everyone else but realize that something is different this time. What this will be I can't say. Just that it seems reasonable that extraordinary events will not manifest like ordinary ones.

Having very limited contact with people normally, will help. It will give you more time.
I agree with your statements. The Gubmint is not going to come out and say much until it is very obvious that the pandemic is well started. ie; folks dropping like flies. By that time it will be too late. By being fairly isolated in say a low population density area like Montana, it will buy you some time. Possibly by the time it is fairly obvious that we are in trouble, by being isolated already you may have time to lock down. Provided you have not had a chance random encounter with someone who was infected, but still mobile. That nervous survivalist looking guy who did not look well at the local gas station. Filling all his available gas jugs etc.
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Old 07-28-2019, 09:25 AM
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IT would depend on how long it took for symptoms to show and how is it spread.

The faster it shows the easier it is contained but in todays air travel, if the symptoms take a week before it hits, and the WHO or such groups become aware of it, figure most major cities in the world will be hit with it hard.
Hope it is only spread by contact not airborne.
Very true.

The problem is: that most diseases have an "incubation period". Which is the time between exposure to the pathogen, and when symptoms start to appear.

This gives any new disease a chance to spread through large areas of the population, before anyone is even aware of it.

Let's use smallpox as an example. There is about 14 days between exposure and the first symptoms.

Viruses such as flu have a somewhat lesser incubation period.

But there is another aspect to pandemics that needs to be considered.

Again, using smallpox as an example. The problem is that most Western doctors have never SEEN a case of smallpox.

The initial stages of some new (or rare) disease pandemic, may be dismissed as symptoms of other conditions.
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Old 07-28-2019, 09:39 AM
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We now have high speed communications in the form of computer networks, television and radios to pass the word for people to stay home and shelter in place until the threat of the flu passes. We now have medical computers which can analyze, replicate and give us designer medicines to stop cold the threat of any old or new flu virus that threatens us. The next possible pandemic will not be like the one that hit the U.S. right after WW1. We have come too far for a virus to stop our civilization in a short amount of time any more.
That is all true. We have magnitudes-greater technology to deal with diseases, than they had available in 1918.

However, if millions of people are suddenly infected---how much capacity does our medical system have? To rapidly produce the enormous quantity of vaccine, or the medicine to counter, some new disease?

Our current medical care system in this country has little spare capacity. The hospitals operate on the assumption that during a typical week, there will be x number of heart attacks, accidents, etc.

See a previous post on this subject:

Pandemic! And an overwhelmed medical system!

https://www.survivalistboards.com/sh...d.php?t=741849
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Old 07-28-2019, 10:14 AM
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That is all true. We have magnitudes-greater technology to deal with diseases, than they had available in 1918.

However, if millions of people are suddenly infected---how much capacity does our medical system have? To rapidly produce the enormous quantity of vaccine, or the medicine to counter, some new disease?

Our current medical care system in this country has little spare capacity. The hospitals operate on the assumption that during a typical week, there will be x number of heart attacks, accidents, etc.

See a previous post on this subject:

Pandemic! And an overwhelmed medical system!

https://www.survivalistboards.com/sh...d.php?t=741849
That is exactly what they found out with Operation Dark Winter I posted above. In a Pandemic, medical system overwhelmed, supply lines shutdown, civil unrest, LEO's don't show up etc. virtual collapse
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Old 07-28-2019, 11:09 AM
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Very true.

The problem is: that most diseases have an "incubation period". Which is the time between exposure to the pathogen, and when symptoms start to appear.

This gives any new disease a chance to spread through large areas of the population, before anyone is even aware of it.

Let's use smallpox as an example. There is about 14 days between exposure and the first symptoms.

Viruses such as flu have a somewhat lesser incubation period.

But there is another aspect to pandemics that needs to be considered.

Again, using smallpox as an example. The problem is that most Western doctors have never SEEN a case of smallpox.

The initial stages of some new (or rare) disease pandemic, may be dismissed as symptoms of other conditions.
That's only half the equation. How many days after you are free of symptoms are you no longer contagious?

Most people think when their fever breaks the are good to go, but that's not always the case.
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Old 07-28-2019, 11:16 AM
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^^^ Lets take Pink Eye. A kid comes down with Pink Eye goes to Dr. get Meds. Standing rule is 24 hrs after starting meds. Good to go back into General Pop. Then there are some Dr.'s that think it should be two-three days before back to Public.
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Old 07-28-2019, 03:46 PM
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My wife and I both work in the medical system. Itís already overwhelmed right now. It would take very little to swamp it.
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Old 07-29-2019, 01:25 AM
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Yep. There's no excess capacity in the medical system. Any extra load from anything creates a loss of basic functioning for the overflow. The medical system in the US is absolutely hardcore on the concept of just in time delivery and having the absolute minimum resources necessary to provide the amount of service required.
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Old 07-29-2019, 09:22 AM
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That is exactly what they found out with Operation Dark Winter I posted above. In a Pandemic, medical system overwhelmed, supply lines shutdown, civil unrest, LEO's don't show up etc. virtual collapse
Dark Winter was very much an eye-opener for a lot of people. It pretty much shattered any comfortable illusions that our medical system could handle a massive population-wide pandemic.

It had special validity, because it wasn't just merely some armchair exercise or theoretical mind-game of "what if?" It was conducted under the auspices of John Hopkins University, together with various Federal government agencies. With experts in the medical, logistics, government, and law enforcement field attending.

And the results were not pretty. It showed a quick collapse of basic services: law enforcement, food deliveries, and especially the U.S. medical system.

Some posters here have used the 1918 pandemic to claim that---while it was severe--most things continued as normal.

However today's world is far different from the America of 1918. Folks back then were much more self-sufficient. Today the vast majority of the population is urban. And it relies on an intricate system of supply and delivery. This system is fragile, already working at full capacity, and vulnerable to disruption. The same for other services such as medical, fire and police protection, etc.
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Old 07-29-2019, 12:13 PM
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This system is fragile, already working at full capacity, and vulnerable to disruption
Indeed.

This is why I am a survivalist. Not because I think there is some specific thing coming down the pipeline, but because civilization as we know it has be constructed in a such a way that it can't help but collapse, the house of cards metaphor is over used....but....that is the way it seems.
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Old 07-30-2019, 06:00 AM
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Originally Posted by zooeyhll View Post
Very true.

The problem is: that most diseases have an "incubation period". Which is the time between exposure to the pathogen, and when symptoms start to appear.

This gives any new disease a chance to spread through large areas of the population, before anyone is even aware of it.

Let's use smallpox as an example. There is about 14 days between exposure and the first symptoms.

Viruses such as flu have a somewhat lesser incubation period.

But there is another aspect to pandemics that needs to be considered.

Again, using smallpox as an example. The problem is that most Western doctors have never SEEN a case of smallpox.

The initial stages of some new (or rare) disease pandemic, may be dismissed as symptoms of other conditions.
In the 1918 Flu some people were dead within hours. It was more virulent in some people.
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