Spread of Pandemics - Page 2 - Survivalist Forum
Survivalist Forum

Advertise Here

Go Back   Survivalist Forum > >
Articles Classifieds Donations Gallery Groups Links Store Survival Files


Notices

Manmade and Natural Disasters Drought, Diseases, Earthquakes, Riots, Wars

Advertise Here
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-24-2019, 02:23 AM
PoorRichard05 PoorRichard05 is offline
Hunter
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Dallas, TX
Posts: 1,423
Thanks: 2,364
Thanked 3,719 Times in 975 Posts
Default



Advertise Here

If there were to be some type of a pandemic part of the issue would be whether or not you knew there was one spreading. In a really serious situation I am confident I could just hole up for at least a month.

During the Spanish Flu (H1N1) of 1918 -1920, part of the problem was the movement of military troops around the world. Today air travel could make the problem even worse. The virus could spread pretty much world wide in 24 hours.

I have read that the US Army experienced a lower mortality rate than expected and that was credited to the use of eucalyptus oil to sanitize things such as door knobs, etc.

Of course some places like Samoa had unusually high mortally rates (over 20%) and, at least from what I have read, there is no easy explanation.

In that type of situation the ability to isolate yourself from others and your access to clean water could be a huge factor.
Quick reply to this message
The Following User Says Thank You to PoorRichard05 For This Useful Post:
Old 07-24-2019, 05:00 AM
Justme11's Avatar
Justme11 Justme11 is online now
French Prometheus unbound
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Houston
Posts: 27,798
Thanks: 30,683
Thanked 66,549 Times in 20,395 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by NW GUY View Post
THIS question is waaayyy outside of my skill set,so
whether airborne or touch or mucus or whatever...

IF you are way outside of any population center ie, I am 20 miles from the nearest town that shows on a map.
IF
I hunker down, not go anywhere as I can for several months, what are the odds of becoming infected?

Would airborne be spread and stay virulent that far from it last host?
Depends also if there is a non-human carrier/vector.

If a pig/dog/bird/raccoon/bat/goose or duck brought the infection to you, then being isolated from people might not protect you.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Justme11 For This Useful Post:
Old 07-24-2019, 05:08 AM
Aerindel's Avatar
Aerindel Aerindel is offline
Abnormality biased.
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: Nuevo Alamo
Posts: 5,688
Thanks: 6,911
Thanked 13,347 Times in 4,315 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Colt View Post
I think the bigger question with these is just at what point do you give up your job and your interaction with the outside world and its resources to isolate yourself, and how long do you wait for it to burn out? Isolate yourself for a year and it may pick back up and make another pass through the population. Or maybe not.
Yes...this is THE question for many scenarios, and particularly this one, and its not an easy one to answer. You can't burn your bridges every time there is a disease scare...but how bad does it get before you decide to? The flu kills tens of thousands every year but most people keep going to work....does it take 100k before you hole up? A million? I really don't know. I hope I can go by instinct when the time comes....try and get a feel of how bad its is before its too late.

How long is easier....as long as you can...as long as you need to based on comms reports.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Aerindel For This Useful Post:
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
Old 07-24-2019, 05:32 AM
randolphrowzeebragg randolphrowzeebragg is offline
Hunter
 
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 1,396
Thanks: 240
Thanked 1,699 Times in 792 Posts
Default

The important question isn't how long it would take for a disease to spread, it's how fatal the disease is to those who are infected.
Right out of the military, I enrolled in a small college that only admitted about three hundred new students per year, but the school attracted students from all over the US. Orientation for new and transfer students took a week, and by the end of orientation every student in the school had the flu. Walking into class was like going into a TB ward.
The flu is spread by respiratory particles which are ejected when someone coughs or sneezes. Studies have shown that some varieties of the flu can survive for days in almost any environment that a human can live in. The way all schools warehouse students and doctor's offices and hospitals warehouse patients would cause a seriously fatal pandemic to cover the whole country in a couple of weeks. It would be impossible to quarantine people fast enough to impact the rate of spread.
If you have a kid in school, or you have contact with someone who has a kid in school, you'd be infected.
Only real way not to catch a communicable disease is to stay away from people who are infected. When I hear someone cough, I instinctively walk in the opposite direction.
Quick reply to this message
Old 07-24-2019, 05:32 AM
randolphrowzeebragg randolphrowzeebragg is offline
Hunter
 
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 1,396
Thanks: 240
Thanked 1,699 Times in 792 Posts
Default

Sorry, dupe post.
Quick reply to this message
Old 07-24-2019, 07:08 AM
charliemeyer007's Avatar
charliemeyer007 charliemeyer007 is online now
reluctant sinner
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Rent Free in your head
Posts: 13,993
Thanks: 33
Thanked 24,120 Times in 8,872 Posts
Default

I think 'they' have opted for the slow kill. RoundUp Ready crops and other GMO foods. Rat poison in the drinking water and chemtrails in the sky. Prozac and other script drugs for everyone starting at near birth plus a slew of vaccines in a short time frame.
Quick reply to this message
The Following User Says Thank You to charliemeyer007 For This Useful Post:
Old 07-24-2019, 08:22 AM
Im RIght's Avatar
Im RIght Im RIght is offline
Survivor
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Redneck Riviera
Posts: 4,345
Thanks: 6,429
Thanked 8,118 Times in 2,827 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Justme11 View Post
Except with the flu, a large part of the population is typically somewhat immune, either from vaccines or previous exposure.

Is the new pandemic something new enough that there is little to no immunity in the population?
Defiantly a lot of variables to consider as each flu season it spreads differently for various reasons. H5N1 about 10 years agoish would be one to research compare/contrast with lots of data for a curious mind to dig into as this new strain had limited natural immunity in the population.

2017-2018 is another good one to look at because although it was a "common" flu strain, the vaccine was a poor match, so it removed a lot of people who would otherwise be immunit out of the immunity cohort.

Also, I think his best research avenue will be to remain as close to the pathogen he is looking to research, and in his case that's the Flu.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Im RIght For This Useful Post:
Old 07-24-2019, 08:24 AM
Im RIght's Avatar
Im RIght Im RIght is offline
Survivor
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Redneck Riviera
Posts: 4,345
Thanks: 6,429
Thanked 8,118 Times in 2,827 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Colt View Post
The real issue with using influenza statistics is the various strains. Once a mutation occurs, how long does it take that specific strain to reach everyone? It's already everywhere all the time, which makes tracking spread not so easy.
Although what you write makes sense, he is looking to research how the flu or flu like spreads.

What do you suggest is a better avenue to research?
Quick reply to this message
Old 07-24-2019, 08:31 AM
Justme11's Avatar
Justme11 Justme11 is online now
French Prometheus unbound
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Houston
Posts: 27,798
Thanks: 30,683
Thanked 66,549 Times in 20,395 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by woozy View Post
Dat movie.... They made one minor mistake in that movie, in my opinion. They made the CDC and WHO superior in knowledge to Osterholm/CIDRAP, and no to that! Itwas so accurate I was shocked.

How long it would take would be dependent on the actual mutation that was able to cross to the index-case human. Worst case is lightning spread,and the victim dead in less than 24 hours from exposure.

If it's TOO deadly, the hosts die quickly, and it has a a hard time spreading. If it is not so deadly, but has efficient spread, it will create misery but not a disaster.

Want to know rhe difference in Bird Flu and Pig Flu?

Wiith Bird Flu, you need tweetment.
With Pig Flu you just need an oinkment.
LOL...
Tweetment.
Quick reply to this message
The Following User Says Thank You to Justme11 For This Useful Post:
Old 07-24-2019, 08:32 AM
Gulcher Gulcher is offline
Homesteader
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,328
Thanks: 1,308
Thanked 4,655 Times in 1,512 Posts
Default

All good responses. I think living in a rural environment should help, as the likelihood of major urban areas being exposed 1st is highly probable. Isolation and ability to wait it out in isolation safely. Being able to recognize the threat quickly and get isolated will be also key to survival. How would you do that what would you monitor. I think by the time the government reacts will as usual be too late. Not sure I would look to them for salvation. What tweaked my interest was comments about Bill Gates and pandemics that I noticed just by my usual snooping around the web. His heavy involvement in pandemic research and communicable disease. His talk at Davos on Pandemics. His recently building an elaborate underground bunker underneath his estate in Washington State. Many of his class of elite have done the same recently. In his talks he rated different scenario's of threat. Meteor strike/Yellowstone type events he gave a lower probability in his lifetime. Nuclear war he rated at around a 50% probability in his lifetime. Pandemics he rated above 50% in his lifetime. He is not exactly young anymore. With his wealth he is able to buy the best inside research available. Plus he has his own labs and research facilities working on pandemics through his Foundation. Anyway ignoring what he says and looking at what he is doing personally, ie; building a massive underground nbc bunker capable of taking a .5K nuclear hit and fully NBC grade bunker speaks louder to me than his words. The last point worth noting the coming pandemic would tip the country and probably global economies into collapse as well. Adding another layer of concern. You randomly kill 30-50M people with a pandemic and the survivors in hiding and the country will collapse. Bill Gates takes the threat serious enough to have gone to elaborate lengths to protect himself and his family. He knows what is coming.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 5 Users Say Thank You to Gulcher For This Useful Post:
Old 07-24-2019, 08:52 AM
randolphrowzeebragg randolphrowzeebragg is offline
Hunter
 
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 1,396
Thanks: 240
Thanked 1,699 Times in 792 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Im RIght View Post
Although what you write makes sense, he is looking to research how the flu or flu like spreads.

What do you suggest is a better avenue to research?
Not actually everywhere all the time. When a mutation occurs, it usually requires a vector or vectors to spread. One problem is that in some parts of the world, humans and animals like swine and fowl coexist in ways that make jumping the species barrier easier than in more developed countries.
From there one human can infect a plane load of people, each of whom can accomplish the same feat so the disease spreads in a geometrical manner.
Even worse, since diseases like the flu can be asymptomatic for several days after a host is infected, there's no realistic way to screen potential carriers. In other words, by the time the pandemic is detected, it can't be prevented.
Quick reply to this message
The Following User Says Thank You to randolphrowzeebragg For This Useful Post:
Old 07-24-2019, 10:29 AM
Gulcher Gulcher is offline
Homesteader
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,328
Thanks: 1,308
Thanked 4,655 Times in 1,512 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by randolphrowzeebragg View Post
Not actually everywhere all the time. When a mutation occurs, it usually requires a vector or vectors to spread. One problem is that in some parts of the world, humans and animals like swine and fowl coexist in ways that make jumping the species barrier easier than in more developed countries.
From there one human can infect a plane load of people, each of whom can accomplish the same feat so the disease spreads in a geometrical manner.
Even worse, since diseases like the flu can be asymptomatic for several days after a host is infected, there's no realistic way to screen potential carriers. In other words, by the time the pandemic is detected, it can't be prevented.
That is the root of the problem and why the Spanish Flu killed 50 M globally last time, at a time when people were not arriving by the many thousands per day via aircraft straight into major urban centers, like today. Now I used the Spanish Flu as an example of a pandemic. Only because it would make a good model I thought. The next one could be a variation of a bird flu etc. Not even related to the Spanish Flu other than being an influenza. By the time the government clues in and reacts its already spreading out from urban centers. So back to my question what do you watch? Do you wait until people on your street are dying to self quarantine? What will be your plan? Your protocol if you will? If you are not already somewhat isolated as in distance from the nearest node I think you are SOL. Where do you get that few days warning?
Quick reply to this message
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Gulcher For This Useful Post:
Old 07-24-2019, 12:31 PM
ralfy's Avatar
ralfy ralfy is offline
Survivor
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 4,156
Thanks: 94
Thanked 1,604 Times in 1,137 Posts
Default

Try Laurie Garrett's The Coming Plague.
Quick reply to this message
Old 07-24-2019, 01:36 PM
Colt's Avatar
Colt Colt is offline
Simple Goat Herder
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 10,406
Thanks: 15,803
Thanked 27,983 Times in 7,509 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Im RIght View Post
Although what you write makes sense, he is looking to research how the flu or flu like spreads.

What do you suggest is a better avenue to research?
There's just not a good one. You can do some rough guessing but just have to settle for that. A proper study would require a genetically modified strain intentionally released with mass monitoring of the population including regular flu swabbing of practically the entire population.

Anyway, you just need to not put too much faith in estimations.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Colt For This Useful Post:
Old 07-24-2019, 01:59 PM
InOmaha InOmaha is online now
Survivor
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 7,049
Thanks: 6,083
Thanked 21,690 Times in 5,667 Posts
Default

The best chances of survival are to get it before the health care system is overloaded or after they've developed a vaccine/treatment.

I don't think it's possible to avoid it by limited human contact. Just because you avoided people when it was at it's peak, doesn't mean someone won't be carrying it to give to you years later.

Based on air travel anymore, I'd guess it would spread world wide in a week. Maybe not everywhere, but enough major cities that it would basically be everywhere. I waited in line for a half an hour with ~1,000 people coming back into the US and dispersing to other US flights. A sick family in the middle of that 11 hour flight and customs line, moving through an airport, then flying somewhere else could be exposing thousands of people. Then multiply that by thousands of flights at a hundreds of airports and the vast number of people going in and out of the country every hour.

During the Spanish flu people didn't have cars and it still spread around the globe. With air traffic now, it wouldn't take much for it to get half way around the world in 15 hours of travel time. One guy coughing on a 12 hour flight could infect a couple hundred people who get off the plane and move about.
Quick reply to this message
The Following User Says Thank You to InOmaha For This Useful Post:
Old 07-24-2019, 02:49 PM
Florida Jean Florida Jean is online now
Hunter
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 1,314
Thanks: 1,760
Thanked 3,082 Times in 993 Posts
Default

Many of the 1918 flu deaths were because antibiotics hadn't been found -- they essentially died of secondary infections.

And pandemics aren't necessarily flu based i.e. bubonic plague, smallpox.

Re: virgin populations [no snickering, it means no previous exposure to the disease] contemplate the pre-european contact population of North and South America with post-contact populations. [1491 and 1492 are interesting reads not taking into consideration diseases].

When dealing with flues -- yes they spread fast. To the point you really need a computer to figure it out.

Contemplate instead a slightly slower disease. Study TB and how fast it would spread and degree of populations effected. Lepersy in island populations.

Or something 'new' but slow with tons of data. HIV/AIDS. Mostly because it is a slow killing disease.

Spread by sex and blood exposure. They know who brought it to the US and even to parts of the USA. They know roughly how long before medical people started to get suspicious about spikes in certain diseases appearing. They've figured out rough death rates [pre-figuring it out and time to death after exposure]. How long before they found the 'actual' cause. Treatment attempts, successful or not. They know that some people are extremely resistant or incapable of getting it. They know a percentage of people still engaged in behaviors that continued to spread the disease even if knew they had it. And there is the subset of hemophiliacs -- essentially the living population of hemophiliacs were wiped out -- not only because of people unknowingly donating, but people continuing to donate blood even though they knew they dealt in risky behaviors. [in some cases because they were being paid which meant more to them than someone's life].

They know how the general population reacts to a disease spread. Myths and conspiracy theories that develop. Fear and panic. And they know that once identified, yes, it re-occurs because human behavior doesn't change [another version of the wave theories that the 1918 Flu did].

We know it spread differently in different populations. In the US homosexual population, the unknowing hemophilic population, the needle using drug addicted population, to the hetero sexual prostitute populations. In Africa, homosexual spread to prostitute spread.

We even know how people can get complacent to it, particularly when there are medical 'cures' around.

In a serious situation, where the medical community is essentially not functioning, would 'survivors' of whatever disease be shunned as ebola survivors are now? Would society divide up into 'we didn't get it' communities to 'we survived it'?
Quick reply to this message
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Florida Jean For This Useful Post:
Old 07-24-2019, 07:26 PM
clc79092's Avatar
clc79092 clc79092 is online now
Hunter
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: TEXAS
Age: 54
Posts: 1,920
Thanks: 194
Thanked 3,064 Times in 1,065 Posts
Default

One aspect you are overlooking - Is this a type of flu that mutated in nature or is this a weaponized version and being intentionally spread? If intentional then the initial infected will hit most major population centers at about the same time. Say a matter of hours apart. Are the carriers dupes or willing martyrs? If martyrs they will go about intentionally spreading far and wide asap to overwhelm health services and any governments ability to contain. The Spanish Lady could take a healthy young adult male in the morning and drown him in his own fluids by evening. I cant understand why any nation would allow that disease to be resurrected even for research purposes. It is way too dangerous. Now if a country wanted to weaponize it then I could understand the attempt. I wonder why the US wanted it???? Surely not for our benefit.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to clc79092 For This Useful Post:
Old 07-24-2019, 09:54 PM
dmas dmas is online now
Survivor
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 4,630
Thanks: 1,236
Thanked 3,869 Times in 2,146 Posts
Default

The cdc tries to track things. My brother got a call that someone on his flight from italy had tb and he should be checked. He caught it, his family next to him did not. 6 months of antibiotics for ordinary tb. That's minimum.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to dmas For This Useful Post:
Old 07-24-2019, 11:00 PM
Gulcher Gulcher is offline
Homesteader
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,328
Thanks: 1,308
Thanked 4,655 Times in 1,512 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ralfy View Post
Try Laurie Garrett's The Coming Plague.
That is a good tip. Check it out. H5N1 55% fatal and spreading. Learn about cytokine storm and your immune system.
Quick reply to this message
The Following User Says Thank You to Gulcher For This Useful Post:
Old 07-25-2019, 11:31 PM
Gulcher Gulcher is offline
Homesteader
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,328
Thanks: 1,308
Thanked 4,655 Times in 1,512 Posts
Default

June 26 2019 President Trump signed bill on Pandemics. https://www.healio.com/infectious-di...-bill-into-law
Quick reply to this message
Reply

Bookmarks



Quick Reply
Message:
Options

Register Now

In order to be able to post messages on the Survivalist Forum forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.
User Name:
Password
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.
Password:
Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.
Email Address:
Gender
Insurance
Please select your insurance company (Optional)

Log-in

Human Verification

In order to verify that you are a human and not a spam bot, please enter the answer into the following box below based on the instructions contained in the graphic.



Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:19 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Optimisation provided by DragonByte SEO (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2019 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
vBulletin Security provided by vBSecurity v2.2.2 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2019 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Copyright © Kevin Felts 2006 - 2015,
Green theme by http://www.themesbydesign.net