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Old 07-23-2019, 09:02 PM
Gulcher Gulcher is offline
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Default Spread of Pandemics



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How long would it take for a pandemic to sweep the USA today. Let's pick a pandemic like the Spanish Flu. What's your research say?
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Old 07-23-2019, 09:14 PM
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How long would it take for a pandemic to sweep the USA today. Let's pick a pandemic like the Spanish Flu. What's your research say?
IT would depend on how long it took for symptoms to show and how is it spread.

The faster it shows the easier it is contained but in todays air travel, if the symptoms take a week before it hits, and the WHO or such groups become aware of it, figure most major cities in the world will be hit with it hard.
Hope it is only spread by contact not airborne.
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Old 07-23-2019, 09:27 PM
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IF YOU want to see a really well done movie about that topic, it is
CONTAGION
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1598778/

IF that doesn't give you nightmares ....
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Old 07-23-2019, 09:41 PM
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IT would depend on how long it took for symptoms to show and how is it spread.

The faster it shows the easier it is contained but in todays air travel, if the symptoms take a week before it hits, and the WHO or such groups become aware of it, figure most major cities in the world will be hit with it hard.
Hope it is only spread by contact not airborne.
Bill Gates and his research modelling on the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic shows that within 3 days it would be too late.
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Old 07-23-2019, 09:55 PM
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They recovered that flu strain from frozen bodies in the Arctic?

The nice thing about the usual super killer stuff of the past is it kills faster than people can walk. The bad part is international travel is really fast these days.

I liked The Andromeda Strain.
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Old 07-23-2019, 09:59 PM
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Spanish flu came in 3 waves of sickness over 2 years.
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Old 07-23-2019, 10:00 PM
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How long would it take for a pandemic to sweep the USA today. Let's pick a pandemic like the Spanish Flu. What's your research say?
The scenario needs more information. Are we talking a single Patient Zero who arrives in the US and starts spreading contagion? Or has the disease spread through the world and there are multiple infection points in the US? In the former it would take a week or so; in the latter, forget it, with the speed of air travel and people constantly moving about, it will be in your neighborhood before the authorities can broadcast warnings.
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Old 07-23-2019, 10:19 PM
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Yup, needs lots of info.

How many people are already immune or somewhat resistant?

Is the disease fully airborne? Sneeze-borne? or does it require real bodily contact?

How long from contact to the infectious stage. How long is the infectious stage?

How mobile is the infected person while infectious?

Does the infection remain in the sperm for over a year after recovery like Ebola?

Are there obvious symptoms that can be used to quarantine effectively, or does the person walk around symptom free for a couple days spreading the disease?

Is there an effective vaccine ready in sufficient quantities to do the ring vaccination technique?

Does it start with just a few patients that can be contact traced or have the numbers gotten beyond that stage already?

Are there other animal vectors or hosts for the disease? (is it carried by fleas, ticks, bats, birds, pigs, chickens, skeeters, assassin bugs, etc?)

Is the disease transmission rate dependent upon the season? rain, cold, hot humid, etc?

And then there are the wildcards like holidays where people fly all over the world to be with family and share infectious diseases.

How educated is the population? Do they wash their hands a lot, and in general practice good hygiene?

And is the population at peace or is there civil unrest, as we have seen in the Congo?

Are half of our doctors already overseas somewhere fighting the disease or are they all at home and ready to fight the disease in North America?
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Old 07-23-2019, 10:20 PM
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How long would it take for a pandemic to sweep the USA today. Let's pick a pandemic like the Spanish Flu. What's your research say?
It would seem using the flu as a guide for how long it takes something like the flu to spread through the US is a good gauge with easy to find research.
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Old 07-23-2019, 10:33 PM
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It would seem using the flu as a guide for how long it takes something like the flu to spread through the US is a good gauge with easy to find research.
Except with the flu, a large part of the population is typically somewhat immune, either from vaccines or previous exposure.

Is the new pandemic something new enough that there is little to no immunity in the population?
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Old 07-23-2019, 11:18 PM
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Completely generic answer assuming generic strain of influenza in generic conditions: About 6 months during the right time of year before it's spread throughout all major communities. Everyone in the country but a few completely isolated hermits should be exposed within a year even if they don't all show symptoms.
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Old 07-23-2019, 11:20 PM
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Except with the flu, a large part of the population is typically somewhat immune, either from vaccines or previous exposure.

Is the new pandemic something new enough that there is little to no immunity in the population?
The real issue with using influenza statistics is the various strains. Once a mutation occurs, how long does it take that specific strain to reach everyone? It's already everywhere all the time, which makes tracking spread not so easy.
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Old 07-23-2019, 11:20 PM
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Spanish flu infected about 1/3 of population.
Wonder how effective pneumonia vaccines would be?
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Old 07-23-2019, 11:23 PM
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Originally Posted by NW GUY View Post
IF YOU want to see a really well done movie about that topic, it is
CONTAGION
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1598778/

IF that doesn't give you nightmares ....
Dat movie.... They made one minor mistake in that movie, in my opinion. They made the CDC and WHO superior in knowledge to Osterholm/CIDRAP, and no to that! Itwas so accurate I was shocked.

How long it would take would be dependent on the actual mutation that was able to cross to the index-case human. Worst case is lightning spread,and the victim dead in less than 24 hours from exposure.

If it's TOO deadly, the hosts die quickly, and it has a a hard time spreading. If it is not so deadly, but has efficient spread, it will create misery but not a disaster.

Want to know rhe difference in Bird Flu and Pig Flu?

Wiith Bird Flu, you need tweetment.
With Pig Flu you just need an oinkment.
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Old 07-23-2019, 11:27 PM
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Originally Posted by NW GUY View Post
IT would depend on how long it took for symptoms to show and how is it spread.

The faster it shows the easier it is contained but in todays air travel, if the symptoms take a week before it hits, and the WHO or such groups become aware of it, figure most major cities in the world will be hit with it hard.
Hope it is only spread by contact not airborne.
Well the topic was modern USA assuming all normal daily travel international and national. And the suggestion of the 1918 Spanish Flu as the virus. From what I have read the virus would be well entrenched and the pandemic spreading nationally within 3 days. Pretty much unstoppable and overwhelming the country. https://www.npr.org/templates/story/...toryId=4946718
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Old 07-23-2019, 11:56 PM
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THIS question is waaayyy outside of my skill set,so
whether airborne or touch or mucus or whatever...

IF you are way outside of any population center ie, I am 20 miles from the nearest town that shows on a map.
IF
I hunker down, not go anywhere as I can for several months, what are the odds of becoming infected?

Would airborne be spread and stay virulent that far from it last host?
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Old 07-24-2019, 12:04 AM
Gulcher Gulcher is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW GUY View Post
THIS question is waaayyy outside of my skill set,so
whether airborne or touch or mucus or whatever...

IF you are way outside of any population center ie, I am 20 miles from the nearest town that shows on a map.
IF
I hunker down, not go anywhere as I can for several months, what are the odds of becoming infected?

Would airborne be spread and stay virulent that far from it last host?
The 1918 Spanish Flu was an H1N1 flu. Assuming the pandemic is a not seen before flu virus, todays flu shots etc would have little to no effect. With International travel all the major nodes, ie; cities with major airports would be spreading it outward within 3 days. The Spanish flu symptoms were standard symptoms for flu, except you got pneumonia and died. Rural people working in cities or going shopping in cities. So the infection could be local within 3 days. The problem would be how would you know soon enough to hunker down in my opinion. By the time the CDC gave a warning we would be in a pandemic status and headed towards a civil breakdown.
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Old 07-24-2019, 12:14 AM
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It depends...a lot.

CDC simulations show a matter of a few weeks for major cities. A matter of a few months for the rest of the country. About a year for most of the world.
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Old 07-24-2019, 12:57 AM
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The truth is that there are too many variables to determine an accurate picture as to if or when a pandemic with a Spanish Flu would happen. It's sort of like estimating when the next pressure cooker bomb will explode at another marathon. We just don't know for sure. All we can hope for is "a best estimate of the picture."

In general we know that most flu viruses come from ducks and transfer to other species. Mother Nature uses the intestines of wild ducks for her petri dishes to make and brew up her evil bugs. Once the bugs are ready, she moves them to other creatures like pigs, geese, chickens, turkeys and, eventually, farm workers. From the farm to the poultry people it goes to the nearby city markets and the meat workers there.

It will be in the city that the virus begins to take off and infect more and more people at a high rate of speed. You can figure that on Day One the first infected person can infect from zero to 50 or more people depending on how the one, original, infected person moves around, travels or works. Inside of a 2 week period over 1 million people can easily be infected. Inside of a month over 10 million people can be infected.

Where things get complicated is in the death rate. A certain amount of people will be immune to getting the flu. A certain amount of people will get the flu and survive being infected with it. Trouble is that a larger number of people will be infected and die because of coming in contact with the flu. There are experts who believe that the Spanish Flu of 1918 went around the world 5 times before it became weak and died out.

As a virus moves around it will mutate or change because of factors that force it to adapt. Because the virus goes from a person who has A+ blood to one who has O- blood and then another person who has O+ blood gives you a loose idea of one factor, moving between people of different blood types, which could possibly have a minor bearing on some issues of how or why a flu virus might change in a certain direction. Other factors that can cause a virus to change could be a bitter cold snap, a heat wave of some kind, a lack of potential victims and so on. Modern medicines could also be a factor to stopping or reducing the effectiveness of a virus too. You have to keep in mind that a lot of changes have happened since the last pandemic involving the Spanish Flu.

We now have high speed communications in the form of computer networks, television and radios to pass the word for people to stay home and shelter in place until the threat of the flu passes. We now have medical computers which can analyze, replicate and give us designer medicines to stop cold the threat of any old or new flu virus that threatens us. The next possible pandemic will not be like the one that hit the U.S. right after WW1. We have come too far for a virus to stop our civilization in a short amount of time any more.
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Old 07-24-2019, 01:50 AM
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I think the bigger question with these is just at what point do you give up your job and your interaction with the outside world and its resources to isolate yourself, and how long do you wait for it to burn out? Isolate yourself for a year and it may pick back up and make another pass through the population. Or maybe not.
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