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Old 04-29-2009, 02:24 PM
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Default CDC Stages of Pandemic, Stages 1-6 Explained, New File



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This is an explanation of the pandemic phases referenced by the CDC.
From the CDC site:
Quote:
Stages of a Pandemic

The World Health Organization (WHO) has developed a global influenza preparedness plan, which defines the stages of a pandemic, outlines the role of WHO, and makes recommendations for national measures before and during a pandemic. The phases are:

Interpandemic period
Phase 1 : No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans. An influenza virus subtype that has caused human infection may be present in animals. If present in animals, the risk of human infection or disease is considered to be low.

Phase 2: No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans. However, a circulating animal influenza virus subtype poses a substantial risk of human disease.

Pandemic alert period
Phase 3: Human infection(s) with a new subtype but no human-to-human spread, or at most rare instances of spread to a close contact.

Phase 4: Small cluster(s) with limited human-to-human transmission but spread is highly localized, suggesting that the virus is not well adapted to humans.

Phase 5: Larger cluster(s) but human-to-human spread still localized, suggesting that the virus is becoming increasingly better adapted to humans but may not yet be fully transmissible (substantial pandemic risk).

Pandemic period
Phase 6: Pandemic: increased and sustained transmission in general population.

Notes: The distinction between phases 1 and 2 is based on the risk of human infection or disease resulting from circulating strains in animals. The distinction is based on various factors and their relative importance according to current scientific knowledge. Factors may include pathogenicity in animals and humans, occurrence in domesticated animals and livestock or only in wildlife, whether the virus is enzootic or epizootic, geographically localized or widespread, and other scientific parameters.

The distinction among phases 3, 4, and 5 is based on an assessment of the risk of a pandemic. Various factors and their relative importance according to current scientific knowledge may be considered. Factors may include rate of transmission, geographical location and spread, severity of illness, presence of genes from human strains (if derived from an animal strain), and other scientific parameters.
For a more in depth look at the phases, I have uploaded the file "WHO Global Influenza Preparedness Plan" here: https://www.survivalistboards.com/dow...o=file&id=1123
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Old 04-30-2009, 12:24 AM
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So now I'm curious, what is the SOP for CDC and related agencies when it hits level 6? Lockdown? Massive closures of public venues? Martial law? Anything written on paper on this that we can expect?
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Old 04-30-2009, 12:47 AM
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Originally Posted by JohnnyBurnt View Post
So now I'm curious, what is the SOP for CDC and related agencies when it hits level 6? Lockdown? Massive closures of public venues? Martial law? Anything written on paper on this that we can expect?
click the link. download the file and read it.
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Old 05-26-2009, 12:47 PM
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what is the incubation period?
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Old 06-26-2009, 05:12 PM
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Pages 34, 37 and 39 are pretty scary.
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Old 07-20-2009, 06:55 PM
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by phase 4 they're going to consider emergency powers?? wow
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Old 08-11-2009, 05:29 AM
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What are the criteria for indentifying a pandemic other than the presence of a disease?
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Old 08-11-2009, 08:05 AM
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What are the criteria for indentifying a pandemic other than the presence of a disease?
Did you download and read the file?
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Old 03-28-2010, 03:57 AM
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It says I dont have permission to read it
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Old 09-17-2010, 05:05 PM
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Realizing this is an old thread, I still want to draw people's attention to a new possible Super-Bug, recently identified in India and made mobile through modern transportation and what is called "Medical Tourism". The Super-Bug is called NDM-1 and it makes bacteria highly resistant to almost all antibiotics, including the most powerful class called Carbapenems. Experts say there are no new drugs on the horizon to tackle it.

I wrote about it on my site: http://www.urbansurvivalskills.com/NDM-1

Gives a whole new meaning to strict protocols for meeting or interacting with people, including refugees and procedures for disinfecting people and equipment.
Hopefully you are not on a refugee migration route. The people along the southwest border are at probably a higher risk.

regards,
UrbanMan
http://www.urbansurvivalskills.com
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Old 09-17-2010, 08:11 PM
SouthernSassy SouthernSassy is offline
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In case there's anyone reading who has the least, tiny bit of confidence in the CDC, please read Randy Shilt's book "And the Band Played On." It's about the beginning of AIDS and the thousand blunders the CDC made. Among them: (1) telling reporters there was no evidence that the disease was infectious even as they were drawing lines which identified Patient Zero and his sexual contacts, (2) making no attempt to screen blood for the virus (even before the virus was identified, researchers knew it affected t-cell levels; checking the t-cell level in blood would have identified most infected donors).
The blood industry, however, didn't want to do any form of screening (it would have hurt their profits), so most of America's hemophiliac population was wiped out.

I don't know what the CDC will do if there's ever a real pandemic, but I'm positive it'll be a total screw up. It always is.
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Old 02-25-2012, 12:39 AM
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I dont want to sound crazy but what if a virus hits like on walking dead? This day and age it could be possible we have no idea what the government is capable of.
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Old 02-25-2012, 12:50 AM
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The government is the least of your worries at that point.
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Old 03-10-2012, 08:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grumble69 View Post
The government is the least of your worries at that point.
Actually, I think that people of any stripe are going to be your worst enemy. Whether it's your hungry, infected neighbors begging for food and infecting you, or a band of random asshats not being so polite as the beggars or your trusty government being the usual moron jagoffs and trying to herd you up with other infected people.


If a real pandemic hits, your best (really, only) bet is to hit the woods. Just get as far from people as possible and stay there for as long as possible.
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Old 11-23-2012, 11:47 PM
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Did anyone else find it amusing when your web browser downloaded the file and it said "Scanning for Virus"?
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Old 01-02-2013, 09:14 AM
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Great piece of information
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Old 01-26-2013, 11:05 PM
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Cant control everything, be prepared with a plan...and have a little faith that our plan is blessed
Thanks for the info
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Old 01-28-2013, 01:16 PM
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Was about to bump this thread, when MarcosT beat me to it.

For those who have skimmed this thread, but not downloaded the file and read it, I encourage you to do so.

I was struck again (after reading it for the 2nd time) with the amount of "innocuous sounding" phrases and buzz words. Example: "nonpharmaceutical public health interventions." Depending on which country you live in, this could mean anything from quarantine to a public information blitz campaign to wash your hands, stay home if symptoms are present, and wearing N95 (or better) face masks and nitrile gloves when in public.

Repeated use of the word: "nosocomial" (I had to look that one up to be certain even though I guessed correctly from the context). It means contracting the pandemic version of whatever disease in a health care setting -- doctor's office, hospital ER, Quick Care place, or as in-patient for an unrelated medical problem.

Also, it's not until Phase 4 that the WHO mentions "Provide instruction in self-protection" (they mean to the general public). While I understand no one wants to start a panic, I absolutely hope that the various sub-national organizations in the US, UK, Australia, Canada, and other western nations (like the Red Cross) do not wait until Phase 4 to create PSAs about this if the illness has reached epidemic proportions before becoming a full-blown pandemic.

This is one reason why it is good practice (immho) to scan various news outlets, including some "fringe" news sites, to look for info which may not be carried in the country of your residence. If something looks sketchy, ask a medical person you trust if XYZ is making the rounds in your immediate area.

Recently, several infants from my grandsons' daycare were hospitalized with RSV. I'd never heard of that. And, yes, both my grandsons came down with it. They are responding well to treatment; neither was hospitalized. So there's lots of nasties around and since the WHO first released this in 1999 and updated it in 2005, it's a good bet we'll see one of three "pandemics per century" in the near future.
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Old 02-21-2013, 08:51 PM
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I tried to look at the pdf from WHO but it says I don't have permission to access that part of the forum. This forum is hard to navigate when you are a newbie and very frustrating in trying to communicate as a newbie. I have tried to, as an example, find out how to thank someone for a post but to no avail. HELP!!
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Old 02-21-2013, 11:42 PM
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Broostersmom, it's tough being a newbie. I think you have to have a minimum number of posts before you can open pdf files or enter the chat room.

Pop over to the ladies' section (if you're a woman -- men aren't supposed post in the "Girvivalist Section") and find some threads that speak to you, then after five (it may be ten...sorry, I'm not sure), head back here to view the WHO pandemic file.

Welcome to SB.
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