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Old 02-13-2014, 05:03 AM
Nomad, 2nd Nomad, 2nd is offline
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Is it really like that where y'all are? Im from hurricane country, and everyone has weeks worth of food.

Might not be regular meals, but it'll be calories.


Quote:
Originally Posted by sigproshot View Post
This is not a scientific number but all things considered, I personally think that if you and yours can make it through the first year you will outlast the weak and stupid.

Into the second year you will be facing the ones who have learned to fight, hunt ,band together and provide.

After the first year only the strong and smart will survive imho. And you will have to earn the right to live.
year?

2,000 calories/day are 730,000 calories/year.
For a family of 4 that's almost three MILLION calories.

How many people have that? How many have that and anything NEAR a balanced diet!?

I like the line in "one second after" where the guy wishes he had just one 50 pound bag of rice....
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Old 02-13-2014, 07:10 AM
KCFirepower KCFirepower is offline
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A lot of North Koreans live in prison camps on virtually no food but what they can find for years and years. Forget electricity. Humans are amazingly resilient when they have to be, and absolutely without conscience until they fill their own belly. Hunger is a great equalizer of mankind. If you have a situation with mass hunger, expect the most desperate possible consequences.
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Old 02-13-2014, 10:50 AM
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Looking at some other data the average person can survive without any food 30-40 days, as long as they are properly hydrated.


The cause of death is heart arrhythmia or organ failure

http://blogs.plos.org/obesitypanacea...food-or-water/
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Old 02-13-2014, 01:31 PM
Cephalotus Cephalotus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jetgraphics View Post
Assuming a 2.5 - 4 lb loss (depending on activity) for each day of fasting, you can extrapolate from there...
1kg of body fat contains 7,000kcal. You will not need more than 2kg of body fat during one week, the rest is water.

Some time ago I didn't eat anything for 5 day, just out of curiosity (this was amazingly easy to do, btw...) and I lost a wopping 1kg (maybe lost more fat, but added some water)

Somewhere below a calorie intake of less than 800kcal/day the body will soon switch to emergency mode and you will need a lot less kcal/day.
You will be tired, weak, apathetic, freezing, losing sexual activity, etc... but you will be still far from dieing.

Btw, that's the problem with zero kcal diets. Body will switch to emergency mode and after your diet you will gain fat as fast as never before.

People will be able to live many months, maybe a year on just 500kcal/day. That's a nice rat a day or some apples and some worms...
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Old 02-13-2014, 01:37 PM
Cephalotus Cephalotus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Colt View Post
I think a major thing people seem to not want to deal with is that in a famine, you need to cut your calories too....
Stretch your resources, get yourself slimmer and meaner, and lose some weight...
This is also my opinion, but I would add that you need to TRY, if you are able to do that.

Are you able to be hungry the whole day sitting in front of huge amounts of food? Do you have the will to resist that food?

I tried it and I assume I'm able to do exactly that if I need to, but I had to test it, because I wasn't sure.

If you belong to those people that are not able to keep the kcal intake in balance, you MAY encounter problems with getting slim or with rationing your nice food.

Try it! Try to live on maybe 1000kcal or 1500kcal for 2-3 weeks and learn how you psyche and your body reacts on constant hunger?
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Old 02-13-2014, 01:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nomad, 2nd View Post
For a family of 4 that's almost three MILLION calories.
100l of cooking oil = 800,000kcal
500kg wheat flour = 2,000,000kcal

Cost for this is around 300-400€ in my country

Of course this is in no way a recommend diet, but it is kcals that you can use in combination with other food resources.

You need to replace it every 5 years and you need to cook it. You also have almost no minerals and vitamins, which has to come from your other food resources. (for example a small garden)

I will use emergency rations (called NRG-5 over here, similar to BP-5).

One of this little boxes weights 12kg and offers around 50.000kcals.

officially good for 10 years under almost any conditions, some maybe good for 30-50 years if stored well.

Cost is 100€ / package, so a lot more expensive than flour or oil, but you "only" would need 60 packages (12kg each) for those 3,000,000kcals. I large car could even haul that.

If you only count at 1000kcal/day (more than many people during WWII had for many months) you would only need 30 packages for 4 people. Even at half rations you would eat more vitamins and minerals than what's recommended.

Even a quarter ration of 500kcal a day would be very helpful and keep you ahead of most other people when searching for other food resources.

Here you see 500,000 kcal:



My plan is to have 2-4 weeks of "nice and rotatable food" for the "typical emergency situation", a bit more of rice, noddles, wheat, oil etc... and I will add one box of NRG-5 (50,000kcal) every 2-3 years.
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Old 02-13-2014, 02:03 PM
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The only data I know of to answer this question would be the historical records of the artificial famine of the Holodomore. The holodomore occurred when Stalin decided to cull the Ukrainian people who did not wish to join the collectivist farms. They started out with a healthy population of well-fed people. Squads were sent out to remove all the food from villages. Crops were dug up, animals were confiscated, cooking tools were broken and removed, the people were left with nothing from 1932-1933. No food was delivered, and those who tried to escape to the cities were shot or forced back. Periodically the squads would return to confiscate anything else the people may have been able to find. Cannibalism got so widespread that the soviets published fliers saying “To eat your own child is a barbaric act”. At the next census, there should have been over 37 million Ukrainians. There were 26.4 million.

So, reduction by at least a third of the population after one year. I imagine mortality starts going up considerably with more passing time, as most of the deaths were in the spring of 1933, just before the collectivist crops came in and the Ukrainians were allowed to eat. The vast majority of deaths occurred in rural areas—food was delivered to the cities even though it was heavily rationed.

Another example that started with a healthy, well-fed population is the Irish Famine of 1740-41. A severe cold snap, followed by a drought, decimated the crops and led to food riots and fuel shortages. In this period there were numerous private stocks of food, and the issue was more the price of food was too high for most to afford it. Again, about 38% of the population perished in one year. Many of these deaths were also from cold, rather than just starvation.

In other words, we’re a tough species and fully capable of surviving bouts of starvation. Don't expect everyone in the neighborhood but your family to be wiped out.
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Old 02-13-2014, 08:36 PM
sigproshot sigproshot is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nomad, 2nd View Post
Is it really like that where y'all are? Im from hurricane country, and everyone has weeks worth of food.

Might not be regular meals, but it'll be calories.




year?

2,000 calories/day are 730,000 calories/year.
For a family of 4 that's almost three MILLION calories.

How many people have that? How many have that and anything NEAR a balanced diet!?

I like the line in "one second after" where the guy wishes he had just one 50 pound bag of rice....


,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
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Old 02-14-2014, 01:16 AM
Nomad, 2nd Nomad, 2nd is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cephalotus View Post
100l of cooking oil = 800,000kcal
500kg wheat flour = 2,000,000kcal

Cost for this is around 300-400€ in my country

Of course this is in no way a recommend diet, but it is kcals that you can use in combination with other food resources.

You need to replace it every 5 years and you need to cook it. You also have almost no minerals and vitamins, which has to come from your other food resources. (for example a small garden)

I will use emergency rations (called NRG-5 over here, similar to BP-5).

One of this little boxes weights 12kg and offers around 50.000kcals.

officially good for 10 years under almost any conditions, some maybe good for 30-50 years if stored well.

Cost is 100€ / package, so a lot more expensive than flour or oil, but you "only" would need 60 packages (12kg each) for those 3,000,000kcals. I large car could even haul that.

If you only count at 1000kcal/day (more than many people during WWII had for many months) you would only need 30 packages for 4 people. Even at half rations you would eat more vitamins and minerals than what's recommended.

Even a quarter ration of 500kcal a day would be very helpful and keep you ahead of most other people when searching for other food resources.

Here you see 500,000 kcal:



My plan is to have 2-4 weeks of "nice and rotatable food" for the "typical emergency situation", a bit more of rice, noddles, wheat, oil etc... and I will add one box of NRG-5 (50,000kcal) every 2-3 years.


I agree, to a degree. I've got my 1/2 ton of wheat (lasts longer than flour, I once got SICK from eating some biscuits made from 1 year old flour.) beans, rice, and other staples. As wellas mtn house etc.

You mentioned a point I made however.... Lack of a balanced diet.

That said, squirrel over beans and rice is much better than just squirrel.
Talk to me about these 5 year storing of oils....

HOWEVER:
The population who stores such is.... Statistically insignificant. Even among those reading this.


Eta: thanks for the NRG-5 info. Looks like lifeboat rations, I'll be looking more into it later.
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Old 02-14-2014, 01:34 AM
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Ok, so supposing you just don't answer the door and wait for your neighbors to all die of starvation... Not a bad plan, except... What happens to all of the corpses? Do they rot in place, decay, attract flies, which then carry disease, wild animals, domesticated animals who are now starving... Your neighbor passes and your neighbor's wife comes around with 2 small children who are clearly starving. Do you turn them away? or hide in the shadows and pretend you aren't home?

So you make your house look unoccupied... Abandoned... How long before a neighbor or a stranger passing by decides to break into the house to scavenge for what might be left behind? Suppose you are one of those ubercool, really wealthy preppers who can afford to have a survival shelter buried in their backyard... You abandon your house and move underground... Wait it out... 6 months? A year? Hoping each day that the neighbors decide to pick up and move away so you can get on with the business of planting crops and rebuilding.

i don't think it is realistic to think that anyone is going to just give up and starve to death. They will move to greener pastures, whether that's moving to a different location or possibly to FEMA camps when all the food is gone, but not until they have exhausted local resources, including your stuff.

I think the only way to keep the neighbors away is to have few, or no, neighbors. And then be sure to have your defenses in order so that the locusts scouring the countryside for food and/or resources don't strip you dry.
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Old 02-14-2014, 02:00 AM
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My nearest Neighbor is 1/2 mile away.
I posted a thread a few weeks ago about counting calories in the city vs the country... Made the arguement IMHO.
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Old 02-14-2014, 11:49 AM
Cephalotus Cephalotus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nomad, 2nd View Post
Talk to me about these 5 year storing of oils....
.
Here is a site with experience in LONG term storage of basic foods incl cooking oil. sadly it's in German:

Here she opens 9 year old food. This is simple standard food from your next supermarket, no mylar, no oxygen absorber, etc...

Just stored reasonable cool in the basement.

http://survival.4u.org/vorraete/mona...check-2012.htm

Everything was fine, oil tasted a bit rancid, but was perfectly useable. They ate that food...

I recommend 5 years, not 9 years which she has done (and she opens one box every 2 years...)

Non saturated(?) oil like rape seed oil lasts longer than oil with saturated(?) fats like olive oil.

So far I only used 3 year old oil and that was ok. I used all of it.
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Old 02-14-2014, 12:12 PM
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Consider this... They estimated a 500-900 calorie diet for the Jews in the concentration camps. If they were wasting away as fast as they did, it's safe to say that most of civilization will do the same on a small to no diet.
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Old 02-14-2014, 02:06 PM
Geistfalken Geistfalken is offline
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There are so many variables involved that it would be difficult to accurately gessimate the length of time that it would take for x amount of people to die off.

Just recently, a castaway fisherman from Salvador was found after spending 16 months at sea and traveling 8,000 miles in an small boat. He claimed that he survived on fish, turtles and sea birds. His fishing partner did not survive and there was some speculation that he may have eaten the other man.

He was found when his boat grounded on an off shore reef in the Marshal Islands. He was in poor condition but the fact that he survived at all was incredible. The individuals’ determination to survive, survival skills and just plain luck are hard to quantify. However, those need to be taken into account.

Certainly, a good many people will die with in a few months. The chronically ill, the elderly, and those that are not capable of fending for them selves will fall quickly. Rest assured, when things get bad enough, those that are determined to survive will do what ever they must to achieve that goal. Even if that means surviving on fish, turtles, and sea birds or even eating the other guy in the boat.
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Old 02-14-2014, 03:32 PM
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As already been stated there are two many variables to this question to state a timeframe as fact. The two main factors are potable water and sanitation. The lack of both will take more lives than lack of food. Haveing a well is nice till everyone around you starts useing pit latrines.(if you're lucky). The lack of both of the above is the main reasons cities will be a hell hole. I'll still stick with within three months for most of those who are gonna die to die. After which the die will continue just not on the same scale. Climate will start to play a larger role during this time frame.
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Old 02-14-2014, 03:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sgtlong63b View Post
It's actually within the first year
Everyone would not need to die if you feed the homeless to the hungry!
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Old 02-14-2014, 03:49 PM
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Originally Posted by ommega View Post
Everyone would not need to die if you feed the homeless to the hungry!
This is how the zombie apocalypse starts...

If it gets to that point, I'm duct tapping some lead to myself, jump into the ocean and utilize the last bullet. I don't want to live that badly. I'll rather let the fishes have me.

Homeless people aren't push overs either. They've been bugging out.

http://money.cnn.com/gallery/pf/2014...source=cnn_bin

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Living conditions are far from safe, however, and some homeless people in nearby tent cities are known for picking fights.

"I was pistol-whipped and everything else. They fractured my skull," he said. "There are guys out here who have guns, there's guys who have baseball bats, there's guys who have rods with spikes sticking out of them -- it's just a matter of knowing who to watch out for."
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Old 02-14-2014, 04:22 PM
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You just have to be adaptable. If long pig is what's for dinner, start a ranch. The government would probably subsidize it.
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Old 02-14-2014, 04:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordOpie View Post
Interesting question.

How long would a typical person live with no calories? How about 500? 1000? Assume plenty of clean water.

Just a rough educated guess would be appreciate.
No one is ever without calories, even in war people find food. Just because someone is a Yuppy today does not mean 3 weeks after shtf they will be one. Humans are survivors and unlike animals can think and reason and (my favorite )plan.

All else been the same I say it will take at least 8 to 10 months to really see a reductions in the population. At least that is how have prepared my self.
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Old 02-15-2014, 12:26 AM
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Go on a diet.
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