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Old 10-20-2019, 05:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Aerindel View Post
It depends...a lot.

CDC simulations show a matter of a few weeks for major cities. A matter of a few months for the rest of the country. About a year for most of the world.
Assuming it starts here. If it starts elsewhere we might have some kind of warning.

The other concern is how long does it last. As in how long do I have to hole up?
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Old 10-20-2019, 11:31 PM
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The problem with militarized bugs is they will spread back perfectly to the country of origin. So releasing the perfect bio weapon would mean suicide.
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Old 10-20-2019, 11:55 PM
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Originally Posted by WilliamAshley View Post
I don't think the Spanish Flu is repeatable unless the health system breaks down in the US.

Agreed, unless the US injects it's soldiers with the Spanish Flu (again) as they're returning from a World War.
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Old 10-21-2019, 04:17 AM
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Agreed, unless the US injects it's soldiers with the Spanish Flu (again) as they're returning from a World War.
Lulz at a civvie whiner over military vaccines. It's not like you would take that kind of risk for your nation, freeloader.
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Old 10-21-2019, 04:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Colt View Post
I think the bigger question with these is just at what point do you give up your job and your interaction with the outside world and its resources to isolate yourself, and how long do you wait for it to burn out? Isolate yourself for a year and it may pick back up and make another pass through the population. Or maybe not.
. Or just cover up and wear NBC masks while around others. ?
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Old 10-21-2019, 08:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WilliamAshley View Post
I don't think the Spanish Flu is repeatable unless the health system breaks down in the US.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mere_Man View Post
Agreed, unless the US injects it's soldiers with the Spanish Flu (again) as they're returning from a World War.
Quote:
Originally Posted by IamZeke View Post
Lulz at a civvie whiner over military vaccines. It's not like you would take that kind of risk for your nation, freeloader.

And once again, you're incorrect.
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Old 10-21-2019, 09:14 AM
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If a country is seen handing out antidote to a bio-engineered bug, we would know it was them who started it and destroy them. The only way to cover your tracks is if the antidote was something your people ate normally, like Borshch for the Ruuskies or tree bark for N. Koreans :-)
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Old 10-21-2019, 10:14 AM
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Remember that most diseases have an incubation period, which is the time between exposure to the pathogen, and when symptoms first appear.

The problem with pandemics is that a large number of people get infected BEFORE it is officially recognized as a pandemic.

If it is a new disease, the symptoms are often diagnosed as symptoms of other diseases.

Smallpox is a good example. In its initial stages, it seems to simply be a bad case of the flu with fever.

Then there is the problem of recognition. Again, using smallpox as an example. Most Western doctors have never SEEN a case of smallpox.
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Old 10-21-2019, 12:22 PM
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Don't forget the steering wheel of your car. When shopping pick up another cart wipe on the way out of the store and wipe the door handle, steering wheel, shift knob and whatever.
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Old 10-21-2019, 01:33 PM
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OK. I finished reading Richard Preston's CRISIS IN THE RED ZONE recently. He's the guy that wrote THE HOT ZONE. [and other books]. Anyway it is about the Ebola business back in 2014. Doesn't bother with the Monrovia etc stuff. Concerns the countries where the outbreak began and how the folks there handled it.

Well, in the wrap up end of the book it mentions one of the scientists [who didn't go to Africa but studies ebola etc] is telling her friends and colleagues to have a month's supply of preserved food and medical gear in their homes. For reverse quarantining [some African villages did it and it worked well enough]. Don't really know where she came up with the month amount. Probably figured a nasty Level 4 disease would either get everyone it was going to get by then or whatever.

Also mentions the reverse quarantining -- villages shutting themselves off. Designated family caregivers willing to risk themselves for those sick in their family. Quarantining those who appear sick with food and water in a separate hut/house. Changing personal/cultural habits, etc.

And some medical developments in various diseases. Treatments [zmapp etc] and new vaccines for ebola and other nasty diseases.

BUT [book was published in 2019 so data must be from previous year] there are only 142 biocontainment red zone hospital beds for hemorrhagic viral patients, not more than 400 biocontainment red zone hospital beds for airborne viruses. So no more than 542 total beds in the USA for a level 4 pandemic event. Toss in there probably aren't enough trained doctors/nurses/etc to care for those 542 patients.

********

With the 1918 Flu Pandemic a goodly portion of the deaths were due to pneumnia for which we have antibiotics now. The 1918 Flu killed about 1 or 2 out of 70 in this country. [multiple waves, different time of the year, and so on]. Did do very much higher death rates in refugee camps, war zones and overseas military camps/troop ships. Did kill more younger healthy adults.

***************

I keep an eye out on SARS, MERS, and some exceptionally deadly flu.

We have a larger portion of our population over 60 than ever before. We have an exceptionally large portion of our population obese. We have a large portion of our population [comparing historically] who are medically at risk, chemo patients, transplant patients, diabetic, COPD, asthma, and so on. And we have a very high proportion now living in cities.

And transportation is exceptionally easy.

[add to that all the people who think other people should take care of them.....]
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Old 10-21-2019, 01:50 PM
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TB may be the bug of choice. The Russian prison system is the breeding system for multiple drug resistant TB. There is a woman in New York who is a carrier for multiple drug resistant TB. She enters a hospital with TB, is given a drug program to the point where she is is no longer able to pass the TB to others and is discharged with additional meds to cure her which she sells on the street and the cycle is repeated. From news reports a court in New York issued an order for the hospital to hold her until she was cured which meant that the people of New York had to pay for her to be in the hospital for over a year.

Additionally, there was a report from South Africa of a man with TB that was totally resistant to all anti TB drugs.

With more and more antibiotic drugs being used we are seeing more bacteria that are resistant to antibiotics. I was put in the hospital 5 years ago with a blood infection caused by a bad Gall Bladder. The antibiotic they put me on was so strong that I got one dose every 24 hours. I was so sick I was not allowed to eat anything from Sunday night to Wednesday night. All told I lost over 25 pounds from my bad Gall Bladder.

There are a lot of unknowns when dealing with diseases and all we can really do is to keep hygiene in mind ALWAYS. Stay safe.
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Old 10-21-2019, 02:28 PM
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edited duplicate
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Old 10-21-2019, 02:29 PM
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I make my own colloidal silver and Have a significant reserve of cider vinegar and honey which are all antibacterial.
Alcohol is another necessity along with chlorine and the disinfectants ,UV lights are also a significant tool in airborne disease control. While working in medical prosthetic manufacturing UV lights were at every entrance of every building, obviously could not sea with bacteria under clothing but what came from out doors was a threat dealt with significantly.
The place i worked I was allowed to bring home my tyvex/paper/plastic jump suit And I put them away in the event it became necessary. Radio active fall out, volcanic dust, pandemic, or dealing with dead bodies or infectious disease.
Dealing with the dead, deceased or not is going to be a big issue, and remaining sterile is going to be a challenge.
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Old 10-22-2019, 04:37 AM
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This video is mostly about Astroid impacts. But it talks about how the CDC can detect disease in an area by indicators like O.J. purchases , Netflix usage and traffic patterns. They also predict evacuation related diseases.

https://youtu.be/7dbwaJfk5Zk
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Old 10-22-2019, 07:21 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by puttster View Post
Don't know why an isolated homestead would be safer in a pandemic than a suburban home.

You go to the store to buy supplies. The next day you hear about this new disease in town. Oops, maybe you should have told the store clerk to keep the change.
Your isolated homestead will likely have extra mosquitos, rats, birds and feral animals to carry the bugs to you and your garden.
The mailman and the paperboy can bring you more than the news.
Your daughter, afraid her daughter is coming down with the bug, will show up.
We don't go to town as often.
See fewer people
Further from them.

If you have a paper boy.... Your not an isolated homestead.
I have a mailbox in town I check 1x/month because mail would be stolen from my mailbox.... If I had one the closest the postman would come is literally miles from my home.

I can tell you've never lived 'on an isolated homestead'
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Old 10-22-2019, 04:08 PM
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The idea that isolation isn’t a defense against an epidemic is silly.

Even if you are NOT completely isolated , few bugs will be so contagious that a single contact will ensure infection. So if you reduce your potential contacts by 50% you reduce your odds of infection.

Other things like hand washing , face masks , etc can also help.

In 1918 1/3 of the people who where alive got infected with the Spanish flu. Currently flu infection rates for the USA are 5-20%. So not that much better.

In 1918 10%-20% of those infected died. This number would likely
Be lower today since we have more options at least in the USA for treatment including anti virals.

Look an extra 5% of the people dying from a contagious disease would be horrible and cause major social and exemplified unrest. But it wouldn’t be like 1918.
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Old 10-22-2019, 04:37 PM
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I am not sure if they would haul us in to provide food for the postal workers or not. Odds are strong they would pull a "Harvey" and just appropriate our supplies.

If that is the case we are absolutely camping out at home. I get my psych meds on a 3 month refill so I would be good for a while. I have plenty of people food, cat food, cat litter.

I learned a lot about cross-contamination when I was a little girl. I had very frequent pink eye infections due to the use of an eye patch. I learned pretty early on I could not touch the bad eye and then the good one, I would spread the infection. When I was 10 my parents almost died from a salmonella infection they got eating out. I learned a lot about food safety and more about cross-contamination. Add a couple of food safety courses I am pretty careful.

I don't sanitize the shopping cart but I will get one from outside in the sun which is a natural disinfectant.

My husband burned his leg last week and I have been treating it. I am very careful about cleaning my hands before and after touching him.

I would not, if at all possible, be outside riding public transit if we had a pandemic. Many of the paratransit clients are very ill and vulnerable to infection, they're going to get sick and spread it all over the fleet like wildfire.

Cabs will be just as bad.

The bus will not be much better.
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Old 10-23-2019, 12:19 AM
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Agreed, in a pandemic, isolation is what you want. There is no reason you can't get it in your home in the city though. Just don't open the door.
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Old 10-23-2019, 03:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by puttster View Post
Agreed, in a pandemic, isolation is what you want. There is no reason you can't get it in your home in the city though. Just don't open the door.
I think the thought was if you live in the city you may get the bug before it’s on the news and you know to stay home.
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Old 10-23-2019, 03:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by puttster View Post
Agreed, in a pandemic, isolation is what you want. There is no reason you can't get it in your home in the city though. Just don't open the door.
I think the thought was if you live in the city you may get the bug before it’s on the news and you know to stay home.
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