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Migration of the masses: Realistic thoughts of PSHTF ??? Castlemom Disaster Preparedness General Discussion 75 05-22-2011 01:24 PM
Just some thoughts..... Blue Hound General Discussion 1 04-06-2010 01:19 AM

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Old 05-19-2011, 11:13 AM
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Default updated thoughts: Migration of the masses: Realistic thoughts of PSHTF ???



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I've talked with people on this forum, over the last three years, about choices regarding where to live for our best chances to survive the coming SHTF events, where best to avoid the masses. I have heard a lot of responses regarding the choice we made, particularly, concerns about the state below me. This prompted me to have conversations with my husband suggesting a serious review our choice and alternatives. Our other choices when we prepared to "Jump Ship" from Silicon Valley, were Idaho and Montana. We opted for no snow and forest canopy. I posted about how we chose Where to live/move, Criteria to Consider


We are on the Oregon Coast, with one major road that could bring desperate Californians, which include some of my grown children and many of my friends, to our door. I fear the normalcy syndrome may keep those I love from getting out of harms/marshal laws way in time.

We had to make a marathon run down to the Bay Area (San Jose/San Fran) for doctor appointments, 1100 miles in 24 hours. On the drive down I was making observations of the route we chose, road conditions ,surroundings, populations of each town we encountered and the distances. On the return trip north we discussed in depth the observations made, enacting a scenario.

From the large metropolitan population, it is 450 to 500 miles from them to us.

What percentage of them will choose to flea the city fast enough to avoid grid lock, troops, hostiles, hysterical masses, et al ?

What percentage of them would have a full tank, much less cans equaling the 30 to 50 gallons of fuel it would take them to drive here, or the cash to buy gas if they could find a station open and willing to sell. How far could they get with what gas is in their tank. How far would they get before having to walk? How far would they get before coming nose to nose with hostiles?

What preps would they have in their car? Would they even have a jacket? Water? walking shoes? Are they in a suit from work? What percentage of them have security measures or weapons to secure their path. Would they have babies or small children to carry? What about grandma in a wheel chair?


FOR OUR CIRCUMSTANCE:

Highway 101 (Pacific Coast Highway) is two lanes, the majority of the path to our town. It is mostly up hill. It is almost always cool and damp. It is sparsely populated all along the route with few towns of density, several of which are tribal lands.


The encounters of people a "migratory mass", or single person, would encounter on their trek (in our scenario) are rural farmers, and tribal groups who don't take kindly to strangers or city folk. Who else would one encounter on this path?

How many could realistically show up in our town? To the west is the ocean
and to the east are a handful of roads leading up hills and rivers with vast areas of wilderness, federal lands and state parks. How many would continue north and not even attempt to explore small roads east working their way to our door.

How many would choose the road leading up to our location? How far would they be willing to stray away from the one major road (101) that they have been on for 10 hours to 20 days, before turning back to the "safety" of the highway. (Ten hours if they had five or six 5 gallon cans of gas to 20 days being on foot the entire way < 500 miles at 20-30 miles a day> )

I really think that our need to protect our home, children, garden and stores will be well within our capability to defend them, especially if we have any of our CLAN gathered.



WE did happen across something we did not think about, much less notice, until this trip.. .. .. .. .. We pass right by Pelican Bay Maximum Security Prison. With the most violent criminals and lifers, ever.. It is about 100 miles south of us ON 101.

What procedures , IF ANY, do the prisons across the U.S. have for a SHTF scenario? How near are YOU to your local inmate population and are you in their likely path?

How easy would it be for inmates to become a free "mass of mayhem" coming our way with no more than a 3-4 day walk and as little as a couple hours if they procure a car with gas in it. Do the corrections officers have orders to lock them all down, or to shoot them all...... what do we realistically have to fear?

How likely is it they would choose our little road to cut away from the highway? How likely is it that they would travel far enough back to be able to see smoke from our fire, prompting them to seek us out? Would they expect to encounter booby traps? Will they still be in uniforms enabling us to see them?

ARE THERE NEIGHBORS WITH WHOM YOU HAVE A PLAN TO PROTECT?
WHAT ABOUT YOUR COMMUNITY/TOWN.... DISASTER PLANS, SECURITY PLANS?

Have you noticed an increase of population in your area? Are motorhomes trickling in to your town already? What is the jobless population in your area now? What is your food bank saying about the increase of local clients, traveling strangers coming in for a box of food? WE HAVE.
FEMA sent a notice to our local food bank warning them that in the event of a larger event, they were not to expect shipments or help due to the remoteness of our location and the lack of population here. To be prepared to deal with things themselves. We have also seen a definite decrease of shipments. The food bank used to recieve 2000 pounds of food every other week....its down to 700 now.

Has the migration begun in your area?

Just another day in thinking ahead, planning, and prepping for that shower of brown stuff. . . . .
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Old 05-19-2011, 01:09 PM
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I went to your profile to read your threads as I said I would, low and behold most of them I had already read, great information. This tread as well has lots, and lots of food
for thought, we are in Vancouver, Washington, I really wish we could be in a non populated area, but isn't an option at this time, but I keep looking for afordable property.
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Old 05-19-2011, 01:47 PM
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A lot of questions to answer. Here's my 2cents worth on some of them.
1) the prison-The guards know what kind of people are in there. They and their families live in the area. No way they will let anyone out,(alive) period!!
2)The more I think out different scenarios the less I believe in the whole mass migration/fleeing of cities. Nukes-gridlock and EMP will stop most. Financial collapse-most will stay put. Pandemic- The last thing the government wants is people fleeing the infected area ie. government armed roadblocks.
3) mass number of people walking - lack of water/food will stop the majority before they get close to you.

At most you may encounter small groups who were mobile who acted fast and got out. In which case the more isolated you are, the more danger you are in. Read FerFal accounts of what happen on isolated farms close to the cities (not your situation) The more isolated you are the more time attackers have to overcome you. Who will come to you aid if neighbors are miles away. Will others even know whats happening?

It seems to me you picked a good place to live. Not saying to let your guard down but keep things in perspective.

Your greatest danger will arise from those within 50 miles of you, not 100's waway.
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Old 05-19-2011, 01:48 PM
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Originally Posted by dizzylizzy View Post
I went to your profile to read your threads as I said I would, low and behold most of them I had already read, great information. This tread as well has lots, and lots of food
for thought, we are in Vancouver, Washington, I really wish we could be in a non populated area, but isn't an option at this time, but I keep looking for afordable property.

Dizz,
As you can imagine, our decision to leave the big city and all it provided us, leaving was tough. We left the corporate world, friends, family, familiarity of location . . . But, I have to tell you, we don't regret it. The first eight months were great, an adjustment, but great. Then, of course, we had our own SHTF and had to start over from scratch with great disability and hardship. The upside to that was that we learned how to navigate SHTF while there were still resources, friends not in crisis and support. It will be much harder for folks who glide along in their cushy lives then abruptly have to navigate SHTF (whatever it may be) when everyone else is experiencing the same thing. Affordable property might include purchasing with another family of like mind. Have you thought about this?

I also have come to the conclusion that prepping is something to become a part of your life now, not so much something you pull out of a bag once an event occurs. Its such a hard balance to achieve and everyone has their own specific dynamics and needs....
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Old 05-19-2011, 02:30 PM
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I also have come to the conclusion that prepping is something to become a part of your life now, not so much something you pull out of a bag once an event occurs.
Thank you Castlemom for putting it so well. Survivalism is a mind set more than anything else; more than any piece of gear or buildup of supplies.
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Old 05-19-2011, 03:19 PM
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Thank you Castlemom for putting it so well. Survivalism is a mind set more than anything else; more than any piece of gear or buildup of supplies.
thanks Slovak. I'm thinking this is worth a poll, just trying to decide wording and question posed.
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Old 05-19-2011, 03:52 PM
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Yes, I thought of that, but I can't get any of my family or close friends to even put away a few gallons of water should their be an earthquake, these are educated people, not dems, they just don't believe things could get so bad that whatever they have in their pantrys won't take care of them. My son would go in with us if we can find anything in our price range, what we have found so far is in eastern oregon, and is a big sand dune, not good for crops I don't think, so I keep looking, have even looked in other states, but I keep looking and may run across the right place, I believe God will lead me where I am suppose to be. I will watch for your posts because they are exactly the kind of info I need.
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Old 05-19-2011, 04:00 PM
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I'm glad you included "avoiding snow" in your thread. Most folks will migrate with the same attitude.
That's why I live here and I love to ski!


Welcome to Wyoming
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Old 05-19-2011, 04:03 PM
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I'm glad you included "avoiding snow" in your thread. Most folks will migrate with the same attitude.
That's why I live here and I love to ski!


Welcome to Wyoming

That's what makes your location great. Most people don't "want" to come to this area because of the 9 months of rain.....
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Old 05-20-2011, 02:14 AM
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....or 9 months of snow!
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Old 05-20-2011, 02:16 AM
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I use to be stationed in Winchester bay near Reedsport! Beautiful country
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Old 05-20-2011, 02:31 AM
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I use to be stationed in Winchester bay near Reedsport! Beautiful country

That is a couple hours north of us and yes , we love it here
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Old 05-21-2011, 12:57 PM
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Would like to hear from more members, bumping Post
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Old 05-21-2011, 01:17 PM
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Why would people migrate?

I can really only think of three possibilities:

1) looking for employment / better money as demonstrated by the Mexicans illegally coming to the US or the Okies moving from Oklahoma to California during the Depression.

In a collapse, there will be no reason to move because there will be no money system of any value to entice people to go somewhere.

2) Escape persecution: as demonstrated by the Jews that fled Germany before the holocaust and even our founding fathers when they left England for religious freedoms.

I can see this as being a possibility if the government turns into a Nazi police state.

3) Natural Disaster: as demonstrated by the flood of Katrina displaced person.

This would be a realistic probability if a major event happens in certain geographical areas. California would be at risk if there was another major earthquake that destroys San Fagcisco.
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Old 05-21-2011, 04:02 PM
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This particular topic came up in the early 90's following a military study on refugee lines, CM. It was discussed on the major survivalist forums back around that time. Refugee lines, as proven by that study, were determined to be the single biggest threat and detriment to any country/government/society/economy in an extended emergency situation. It's why the gov here, the UN, and every other developed country in the world take so many steps to stop refugee lines at all costs. Once started, they can destroy entire countries.

The approx formula was 90% of a moving population moving 30 miles per day *on foot* with a 10% attrition rate per day. You would start off with approx 6 million folks heading your way from the San Jose/Fran area if they all move in the same direction. with L.A. being south of there, if it started moving, you'd have even more.

On the first day, six million will be thirty miles from San Fran, the end of the second day, 5,400,000 will be sixty miles from San Fran. The third day, 4,860,000 will be 90 miles from San Fran etc. At 450 miles distance from San Fran, you're looking at over 1.25 million folks walking across your area on day fifteen. Rough estimates, of course.

Refugee lines are like avalanches....they might start small in most cases but they cause everything in their path to start moving, too.

rich
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Old 05-21-2011, 04:27 PM
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From the large metropolitan population, it is 450 to 500 miles from them to us.

What percentage of them will choose to flea the city fast enough to avoid grid lock, troops, hostiles, hysterical masses, et al ?

What percentage of them would have a full tank, much less cans equaling the 30 to 50 gallons of fuel it would take them to drive here, or the cash to buy gas if they could find a station open and willing to sell. How far could they get with what gas is in their tank. How far would they get before having to walk? How far would they get before coming nose to nose with hostiles?
There may be quite a few who can get that far by motorcycle.

But why WOULD most of them go so far north? You don't expend precious gas just to travel more miles without a reason, once you've gotten away from the cities. And certainly you don't walk far without a reason...like trying to reach relatives.

I expect you will get visitors on motorcycles mainly.
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Old 05-21-2011, 04:37 PM
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Originally Posted by randkl View Post
This particular topic came up in the early 90's following a military study on refugee lines, CM. It was discussed on the major survivalist forums back around that time. Refugee lines, as proven by that study, were determined to be the single biggest threat and detriment to any country/government/society/economy in an extended emergency situation. It's why the gov here, the UN, and every other developed country in the world take so many steps to stop refugee lines at all costs. Once started, they can destroy entire countries.

rich
I have no respect for a relief agency (UN) whose method of relief aid delivery is officially called "truck and chuck"
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Old 05-21-2011, 04:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by randkl View Post
This particular topic came up in the early 90's following a military study on refugee lines, CM. It was discussed on the major survivalist forums back around that time. Refugee lines, as proven by that study, were determined to be the single biggest threat and detriment to any country/government/society/economy in an extended emergency situation. It's why the gov here, the UN, and every other developed country in the world take so many steps to stop refugee lines at all costs. Once started, they can destroy entire countries.

The approx formula was 90% of a moving population moving 30 miles per day *on foot* with a 10% attrition rate per day. You would start off with approx 6 million folks heading your way from the San Jose/Fran area if they all move in the same direction. with L.A. being south of there, if it started moving, you'd have even more.

On the first day, six million will be thirty miles from San Fran, the end of the second day, 5,400,000 will be sixty miles from San Fran. The third day, 4,860,000 will be 90 miles from San Fran etc. At 450 miles distance from San Fran, you're looking at over 1.25 million folks walking across your area on day fifteen. Rough estimates, of course.

Refugee lines are like avalanches....they might start small in most cases but they cause everything in their path to start moving, too.

rich


Your estimates while correct if unabated.... don't seem to account for variables like weather, mountainous terrain, injury, hostiles and all the bridges being blown by locals to keep them out. Another real consideration is do they have food, water, proper clothing, children, carrying weapons.... because the people they are descending on ...likely Do. Than they would have to be willing to get off the only highway for 120 miles (I-5 east with 7 million acres of wilderness between. no roads no population) and then find us in the trees.....remember, they likely don't have a map of our state much less our county. And for the flush that does come.... not much here.... they will keep going, especially if they have come this far. Just a thought. Would love to hear more of yours.
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Old 05-21-2011, 04:49 PM
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Originally Posted by lanahi View Post
There may be quite a few who can get that far by motorcycle.

But why WOULD most of them go so far north? You don't expend precious gas just to travel more miles without a reason, once you've gotten away from the cities. And certainly you don't walk far without a reason...like trying to reach relatives.

I expect you will get visitors on motorcycles mainly.

You are very correct. There is so much Forest land, State/National Parks and Wilderness between SF and our BOT (bug out town) that most would not wish to go further than 200 miles.



I don't think most motorcycles can forge the rivers they would have to as well as much of the terrain.... because I guarantee you there are people in many of the small towns and back areas that fully intend to and are able to blow the bridges required to get further north . But yes there would be a certain amount that could make it here.

And I also guarantee you that refugee lines will have to pass through Tribal Lands.... yeah, good luck with THAT.


Your thoughts?
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Old 05-21-2011, 05:11 PM
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Depends on the circumstance? Not to knock PORT ORFORD, Bandon or gold beach but thereís not a big draw. Iím not sure people would choose to head there in a SHTF it would be an act of desperation. Iíd be more concerned with the ďbug OutĒ people heading to a place like that because they think they are going to ďlive off the landĒ in the woods.

Itís roughly 437 miles from PORT ORFORD to San Francisco 1 tank of fuel will get almost any car or truck that far and for some thatís not a full tank of fuel
One thing is for sure San Francisco/ bay area is roughly 7.5 million people if SHTF it will get ugly and desperate quick
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