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View Poll Results: Is history seasonal, and is winter coming?
Yes, Winter is coming. 59 81.94%
No, We are not to winter yet. 2 2.78%
I don't think history is seasonal 9 12.50%
Other - Please Specify Below 2 2.78%
Voters: 72. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 12-29-2012, 07:26 PM
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I just watched a good video (Generation Zero) that was posted on another thread on these forums, and thought this quote was worth mentioning.

The basic premise of the video Seen Here is that history repeats itself in cycles, more specifically seasons. We basically go through 4 periods Just like seasons. Each period is said to last approximately 20 years.

We go through Winter, winter is the hard season that is devistating for the people, usually it's triggered by some major event, sometimes its just from a collapse. Winter is rough on everybody, so much so, the people that make it through vow to never have to endure it again.

Spring, this is the recovery period after winter basically where people rebuild and work really hard to make life good again, especially for their kids.

Summer, this period is where the kids of the spring grow up as spoiled brats not having experienced the winter themselves.

Fall, in this period the spoiled brats have had kids, and they have grown up, even more defiant and know better than their parents and especially their grand parents (the winter survivors).

This brings us back to the Winter... where we are today (well, I think we are at the end of fall) We are just waiting for that thing that brings the blizzard upon us...

What do you guys think? Is history seasonal? Is winter coming???
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Old 12-29-2012, 07:40 PM
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I've said this for years. It's actually what started me thinking about prepping. The book The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe that was written in 1997 (and its predecessor Generations written in 1992) talk about this very thing. Extremely interesting reading that I highly recommend. They predicted a "Great Devaluation" that would occur sometime 2005-2008 and wipe out a lot of Boomers' retirement accounts and start the next crisis.
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Old 12-29-2012, 07:43 PM
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Ive read about a theory similar to this. It states that it takes four generations to complete a cycle. It sounded good, but I dont believe it either. I dont think History "Repeats" its self. I think people make similar choices without proper guidence.
The definition of insanity: Doing the same thing, the same way and expectiong a different result. People are stupid.
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Old 12-29-2012, 08:02 PM
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I agree with this concept, completely. If you get into reading a lot about history, you can see the cycle repeating again and again. And, yes, I do think we're just about "there" for another Winter economic season. It's been approximately 80 years since the end of the Great Depression. We're due.

The last Winter economic season that we had ended with the 1930's Depression in America. (I can't even imagine being a person in my late 80's or 90's and recognizing the approach of yet another Winter season. No one should have to endure more than one of those in one lifetime.)

I will second the recommendation for the book "The Fourth Turning". It's a big book, written in the style that makes you read a chapter and then stop to think about what you have just read for a while, before you go on to read the next chapter. It's not an easy book to get thru. But, it's well worth the time to read it. It's a superb book on economics and society's actions.

My belief in this seasonal economic and societal pattern is what spurs me on to keep saving as much as I can, keep simplifying my life, keep prepping, etc. However, it does concern me (a lot) that Americans don't have the mental or physical toughness of our grandparents' generation. Whatever the first domino will be that propels us into Winter will result in a Grade A mess as all those people who still believe "this is just another recession and the economy will return to what it was" finally have to face up to reality.
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Old 12-29-2012, 08:03 PM
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Strictly speaking, history does not repeat itself. What repeats is society's responses to events. Generations tend to raise generations that are opposites of themselves and react to events in a way directly opposite. Case in point is Gen X. Their childhood was run by the Silent, who were the sheltered, smothered children of the Great Depression and WWII. The Silent hated that their childhood was so structured and enclosed, and raised Gen X accordingly. This was when we got New Math, smiley stickers, and the notion that what was important was self esteem and how hard you tried. Those same Gen Xers are now helicopter parents, raising their children in a similar stifling manner that the Silent was trying to get away from.
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Old 12-30-2012, 10:51 AM
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So it would seem we are in the begining of the fourth turning, the crisis. Probably starting around 08'?

So, how hard is winter going to be? I know we narrowly averted a total crash in 08', are we going to see a total crash and the beginning of WW3?

Is that what it's going to take to get us into the next High? If so, I hope we live through it to see the next high and actually live a while to enjoy it.

This time we'll have better footage, and documentation of the crisis. Hopefully that will make the high last a few generations...

The difference from past generations is the ability to "relive" the past. We can do that now. Just watch an old movie, and we get a glimpse into how it was, watch a documentary and let it absorb...

In the future, people will probably be able to pop into Virtual Reality and experience it themselves... I have high hopes that the next crisis will be the last, at least for a long time. But who knows... I guess we will see
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Old 12-30-2012, 11:07 AM
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What do you guys think? Is history seasonal? Is winter coming???
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Old 12-30-2012, 11:13 AM
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I also read "The Fourth Turning" by Strauss and Howe, and while its an interesting theory I remain skeptical of its predictive ability. Social and technological evolution advances at a rate that precludes the environment of one generation from impacting too significantly on the second or third.

[Example - when I attended college in the mid 70s desktop computers had not yet been invented. Terms papers were written on typewriters. When I returned for an advanced degree ten years later, desktop computers were required for all students. If you're in your 30s or 40s, think about how many daily items in your life are significantly different from when you were growing up.]

Human behavior may be timeless, and events such as war or crime may also be a constant in the human condition, but I'm doubtful that many predictions other than very broad statements can be made based on the idea that sociological and cultural development is cyclical.

(Remember that in the 1980s Americans were convinced that a nuclear holocaust might be imminent, and survival writers like Mel Tappen, Jeff Cooper, Bruce Clayton, and Ragnar Benson were popular among those who prepared...)

'The Wolf is Always at the Door'. (Don Henley)
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Old 12-30-2012, 11:14 AM
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So it would seem we are in the begining of the fourth turning, the crisis. Probably starting around 08'?

So, how hard is winter going to be? I know we narrowly averted a total crash in 08', are we going to see a total crash and the beginning of WW3?

Is that what it's going to take to get us into the next High? If so, I hope we live through it to see the next high and actually live a while to enjoy it.

This time we'll have better footage, and documentation of the crisis. Hopefully that will make the high last a few generations...

The difference from past generations is the ability to "relive" the past. We can do that now. Just watch an old movie, and we get a glimpse into how it was, watch a documentary and let it absorb...

In the future, people will probably be able to pop into Virtual Reality and experience it themselves... I have high hopes that the next crisis will be the last, at least for a long time. But who knows... I guess we will see
Don't count on it. In the history of the world it has never happened. There's plenty of footage of WWII but it makes no impact on my grandchildren. They consider WWII to be as ancient as the Civil War was to me as a child. The next generations will look back at whatever happens (look for the next big global war around 2020) and think it will never happen to us, and will go on with their lives accordingly. They will think because they are BETTER, they can avoid it.
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Old 12-30-2012, 11:17 AM
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I also read "The Fourth Turning" by Strauss and Howe, and while its an interesting theory I remain skeptical of its predictive ability. Social and technological evolution advances at a rate that precludes the environment of one generation from impacting too significantly on the second or third.

[Example - when I attended college in the mid 70s desktop computers had not yet been invented. Terms papers were written on typewriters. When I returned for an advanced degree ten years later, desktop computers were required for all students. If you're in your 30s or 40s, think about how many daily items in your life are significantly different from when you were growing up.]

Human behavior may be timeless, and events such as war or crime may also be a constant in the human condition, but I'm doubtful that many predictions other than very broad statements can be made based on the idea that sociological and cultural development is cyclical.

YMMV.
There was a huge advance in technology between the Civil War and WWII. It didn't save them and it won't save us. Strauss and Howe specifically admit that their theory can't predict WHAT will happen, just a range of WHEN it has highest probability to happen.
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Old 12-30-2012, 11:36 AM
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So it would seem we are in the begining of the fourth turning, the crisis. Probably starting around 08'?

This time we'll have better footage, and documentation of the crisis. Hopefully that will make the high last a few generations...
Problem is, the media controls which version of History that they want you to see.
“We are at war with Eastasia; we have always been at war with Eastasia.”
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Old 12-30-2012, 12:30 PM
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So it would seem we are in the begining of the fourth turning, the crisis. Probably starting around 08'?

So, how hard is winter going to be? I know we narrowly averted a total crash in 08', are we going to see a total crash and the beginning of WW3?

Is that what it's going to take to get us into the next High? If so, I hope we live through it to see the next high and actually live a while to enjoy it.

This time we'll have better footage, and documentation of the crisis. Hopefully that will make the high last a few generations...

The difference from past generations is the ability to "relive" the past. We can do that now. Just watch an old movie, and we get a glimpse into how it was, watch a documentary and let it absorb...
*******************

The pattern in America has been that each Fourth Turning has involved a major bloody war. The American Revolution........The Civil War........and World War II. With all the unrest currently ongoing around the globe, it doesn't take much imagination to visualize another war breaking out that eventually involves America in that conflict.

Re your comment about "better footage and documentation of the crisis".......would that be documentation of the sort that we have gotten for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan???? As far as the American media is concerned, those two wars have been mostly ignored. We can probably expect more of the same media attitude in the future.

Re the idea of "reliving the past".......you can't really do that, unless it was a traumatic event that impacted you, personally. If it did, you will be haunted and traumatized by the experience for the rest of your life. Otherwise, we are so conditioned to going to the movies for entertainment that we would bring the same attitude to any documentary about past events.

There is a reason "why" succeeding generations always fail to learn from the past. We just DON'T want to believe that the really bad stuff will ever happen, again. Denial of reality runs rampant in America.

Case in point.......Ken Burns' documentary on the 1930's Dust Bowl years recently aired on TV. Probably 99% of the people, who watched that, were thinking: "Yeah, that was pretty bad. But.......that was then, and this is now. We have so much new technology, now, that a drought could NEVER impact the country that badly, again."

And Mother Nature just laughs quietly, while she rolls up her sleeves and prepares to give another lesson to people who think technology will save them from every problem.
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Old 12-30-2012, 01:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Grotius View Post
I also read "The Fourth Turning" by Strauss and Howe, and while its an interesting theory I remain skeptical of its predictive ability. Social and technological evolution advances at a rate that precludes the environment of one generation from impacting too significantly on the second or third.

[Example - when I attended college in the mid 70s desktop computers had not yet been invented. Terms papers were written on typewriters. When I returned for an advanced degree ten years later, desktop computers were required for all students. If you're in your 30s or 40s, think about how many daily items in your life are significantly different from when you were growing up.]

Human behavior may be timeless, and events such as war or crime may also be a constant in the human condition, but I'm doubtful that many predictions other than very broad statements can be made based on the idea that sociological and cultural development is cyclical.

(Remember that in the 1980s Americans were convinced that a nuclear holocaust might be imminent, and survival writers like Mel Tappen, Jeff Cooper, Bruce Clayton, and Ragnar Benson were popular among those who prepared...)

'The Wolf is Always at the Door'. (Don Henley)
****************

Sorry, but your theories have some flaws. Yes, you are correct in stating that daily life is noticeably different than it was before we became so dependent on technology and electronics.

However, there have been ground-breaking new inventions before that resulted in huge leaps and changes in the way we live. Gutenberg invented moveable type printing in the 14th century. Prior to that, books and manuscripts were laboriously hand written. This was a huge change. In terms of the culture of that time, it could be compared with the invention of the computer.

There have been other inventions. The steam engine was a biggie. So was the gasoline engine. So was the automobile. So was airplane flight. So was assembly line production. So was radio, TV, the telephone, and the telegraph. These are just a few of them. The complete list is amazingly long.

The Industrial Revolution also changed the way we lived. It moved us off the farm into the cities where the factories were located.

Each new generation has looked at their parents and grandparents lives......and smugly congratulated themselves on how "modern" and "advanced" they think they are, by comparison.

Now, it's the 21st century, and the majority of us are worshipping at the shrine of technology. What most never seem to realize is that human brains have not kept pace with the lightning fast changes in computers and technology. Our brains are much slower to evolve than our machines are.

If you want a very basic example, human babies and young children all learn their behavior by observing their parents and older relatives' actions. Not only does the family environment (and at least the parents' generation) play the major role in human development.......in the majority of cases, there simply is no other way for young children to learn their social patterns. The behavioral patterns are imprinted by the time the child is five years old.

What is interesting is looking back at different generations and realizing how obvious it is that succeeding generations consistently rebelled against the basic teaching of their parents. It's apparent, from observing that mindset, that there are other hereditary factors involved in our development.

We are going to pay, dearly, for our ongoing fascination with technology and computers. It has set us up for disaster.
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Old 12-30-2012, 05:52 PM
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Tic Tic Boom.....
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Old 12-30-2012, 07:34 PM
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****************

Sorry, but your theories have some flaws. Yes, you are correct in stating that daily life is noticeably different than it was before we became so dependent on technology and electronics.

However, there have been ground-breaking new inventions before that resulted in huge leaps and changes in the way we live. Gutenberg invented moveable type printing in the 14th century. Prior to that, books and manuscripts were laboriously hand written. This was a huge change. In terms of the culture of that time, it could be compared with the invention of the computer.

There have been other inventions. The steam engine was a biggie. So was the gasoline engine. So was the automobile. So was airplane flight. So was assembly line production. So was radio, TV, the telephone, and the telegraph. These are just a few of them. The complete list is amazingly long.

The Industrial Revolution also changed the way we lived. It moved us off the farm into the cities where the factories were located.

Each new generation has looked at their parents and grandparents lives......and smugly congratulated themselves on how "modern" and "advanced" they think they are, by comparison.

Now, it's the 21st century, and the majority of us are worshipping at the shrine of technology. What most never seem to realize is that human brains have not kept pace with the lightning fast changes in computers and technology. Our brains are much slower to evolve than our machines are.

If you want a very basic example, human babies and young children all learn their behavior by observing their parents and older relatives' actions. Not only does the family environment (and at least the parents' generation) play the major role in human development.......in the majority of cases, there simply is no other way for young children to learn their social patterns. The behavioral patterns are imprinted by the time the child is five years old.

What is interesting is looking back at different generations and realizing how obvious it is that succeeding generations consistently rebelled against the basic teaching of their parents. It's apparent, from observing that mindset, that there are other hereditary factors involved in our development.

We are going to pay, dearly, for our ongoing fascination with technology and computers. It has set us up for disaster.
I don't have any theories.

My point is that advances do not occur in accordance with any consistency or predictable pattern, and that as a result of advances occurring at different random periods the conditions that alter behavior are likewise random at any given period (e.g. every 25 years, or whatever),

That's why I'm skeptical of a theory that predicts WHEN things are going to occur.
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Old 12-30-2012, 07:57 PM
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I don't have any theories.

My point is that advances do not occur in accordance with any consistency or predictable pattern, and that as a result of advances occurring at different random periods the conditions that alter behavior are likewise random at any given period (e.g. every 25 years, or whatever),

That's why I'm skeptical of a theory that predicts WHEN things are going to occur.
The "conditions that alter behavior" have nothing to do with the technological level of the society. What alters behavior is the perception of the generation in charge that something is wrong, and their attempts to fix it. Inevitably it results in an over correction that a future generation then tries to "fix" back in the opposite direction. The technology of the day is merely a means to an end.
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Old 01-02-2013, 06:52 AM
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i always say, if you want to know the future, learn the past
it pretty much sums it
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Old 01-02-2013, 09:17 AM
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I heard it put this way
The first generation creates the wealth
The second generation lives on the wealth
The third generation destroys the wealth (my therory is because they donot understand what is required to create it so they don't appreciate it)
Never heard the seasons approach yeah I see it all too easily
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Old 01-02-2013, 09:32 AM
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People love the cycles simile. But unlike the position of the Earth as it goes around the sun, the cycle of human existence is subjective.

For all we know perhaps the last decade was Fall and Winter. That we are just about to come into Spring with new growth. Certainly the recession after 2008 was pretty drastic. Though present times certainly look uncertain, it is never easy to predict what comes next.

I tend to put cycle ideas with the numerology camp and belief in astrology. Nice ways to describe stuff but no real meaning.
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Old 01-02-2013, 10:22 AM
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This economy was all man made with the Bank home loan crap. The rest followed and got bailed out. They knew the rules, laws, the possible outcome the legal implications and decided to go ahead and take the cash and dash. Knowing full well they would be bailed out or this country's economy would instantly crash unless we bailed them out. Plain and simple. We did, and they walked (most of them).
And instead of an instant crash its been like a death of 1000 cuts that we may/may not slowly come out of.
New safeguards have been put in place to avoid this type of banking disaster of ever happening again but it may be too late.
I prep just like the rest of you, but i am cautiously optimistic we wont have to go through what we are preparing for.
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