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View Poll Results: Have you worn a mask during the "pandemic?"
No way! Screw masks, won't do it. 25 14.29%
I haven't had to yet. 15 8.57%
I wear them when I have to. 106 60.57%
Yes! Everyone should be wearing masks! How dare you!! 29 16.57%
Voters: 175. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-26-2020, 10:45 AM
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Default It's a Virus--Not a Disease--When It's Being Shed and Spread



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Originally Posted by esheldon View Post
It's not a virus, it's a disease, Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19).
Viruses cause diseases, SARS-CoV-2 caused COVID-19.
COVID-19 is not airborne, although it can be carried through the air via when you sneeze or cough.
It's not a disease that is hanging out on shopping cart handles and credit card readers, or blasting through the air on the wings of coughs and sneezes before settling onto...whatever...to be picked up on the hands (or whatever) of whomever touches same. It is actual little virions each containing--not a disease--but a virus. Whether a tiny fraction of these little viri ever become a disease depends on their successfully infecting and reproducing in their next host whose immune system reacts and--voila--you have your next COVID disease case.

I'm only being picky about this because it bears directly on the purpose and function of wearing those "crappy little masks," which admittedly do rather little to filter the incoming air of the wearer--and nothing at all to protect the mucus membranes of his eyes.

What they do rather effectively, though, is reduce the number and range of everyday droplets emanating from the wearer's mouth and nose as he talks and breathes, as well as coughs and sneezes. Don't think of it as PPE. Think of it as a condom for your mouth!

The significance of asymptomatic spreading is that people who may be at low risk of serious disease themselves, and feel just fine (or just a little off), may still be super-spreaders of the virus. No doubt the number of asymptomatic spreaders of COVID-19 in any given group is highly variable. Out of 5000 people per day ambling around in a Costco Warehouse of 5 million cubic feet, the number of people actively shedding vireons might be only 2 or 3...or 20 or 30...or 2-300, but in most places today in the US it is probably greater than zero. Whatever the number, the shedding is all happening in the bottom 6 feet of air in the same aisles all day long.

I hope it is obvious that if no one is wearing a mask any infectious particles are bound to be much more numerous and travel much farther than if everyone is wearing a mask.

In short, the effect on air quality or viral load of a single person in a crowd wearing a mask is negligible. But when everyone in the crowd is wearing even a "crappy little mask" the effect is to dramatically reduce the total viral load in that enclosed space.
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Old 05-26-2020, 10:57 AM
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Originally Posted by ambos lados View Post
Think of it as a condom for your mouth!
With thousands of holes in it.

How about this one?



Masking up as they are all in direct contact with one another. Ha, ha, ha, ha ....
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Old 05-26-2020, 11:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lagnar View Post
With thousands of holes in it.

How about this one?



Masking up as they are all in direct contact with one another. Ha, ha, ha, ha ....
>0

I'm sure they're not about to get of that car or anything.

But you're right that everyone should have a proper mask on by now, and he needs to pinch that nose piece. They can do even better.

But they won't. We failed. We refuse to do enough to stop the virus and it's all a joke. So they might as well take the kids and go visit a COVID patient in the hospital and get it over with now.

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Old 05-26-2020, 11:46 AM
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The first sunny days over 90 F, I don't see a majority wearing a mask. They'll say it's too hot and take it off to breath.

We half assed the entire response and would have been better off catching it and being done with it. Lock down the borders, treat only those most likely to survive, put the rest in tents outside the hospitals and hand relatives a box of ashes. Go 4-8 weeks like that and we'd probably be done with it already. As is, they messed up masks by spreading false information, messed up quarantine by making so many things essential, and will continue to mess it up by having 1/2 the people believe one thing or another now that they're letting it spread to get herd immunity. School is even out now, so the best way to spread it is off for the summer.

What a cluster. I guess we'll fumble along until fall to give the herd immunity a shot. Hopefully, it doesn't flare up too much and scare people into keeping schools closed before the little snot nosed super spreaders get back in close proximity to each other. Open air travel, restaurants, cruises, weddings, and pack those office buildings full. But nothing spreads stuff around like kids.
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Old 05-26-2020, 12:17 PM
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Originally Posted by InOmaha View Post
The first sunny days over 90 F, I don't see a majority wearing a mask. They'll say it's too hot and take it off to breath.

We half assed the entire response and would have been better off catching it and being done with it. Lock down the borders, treat only those most likely to survive, put the rest in tents outside the hospitals and hand relatives a box of ashes. Go 4-8 weeks like that and we'd probably be done with it already. As is, they messed up masks by spreading false information, messed up quarantine by making so many things essential, and will continue to mess it up by having 1/2 the people believe one thing or another now that they're letting it spread to get herd immunity. School is even out now, so the best way to spread it is off for the summer.

What a cluster. I guess we'll fumble along until fall to give the herd immunity a shot. Hopefully, it doesn't flare up too much and scare people into keeping schools closed before the little snot nosed super spreaders get back in close proximity to each other. Open air travel, restaurants, cruises, weddings, and pack those office buildings full. But nothing spreads stuff around like kids.
Unfortunately it's also going to come with forcing people to expose themselves against their will. Don't send your kid to school and we'll take them by force and put them there. So even people who know better are ****ed if this isn't burned out by the time school starts. That should be our goal. Infect all the idiots by the end of summer break. Their kids needs to look like little Jaden up there so my kid doesn't.
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Old 05-26-2020, 12:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Colt View Post
Unfortunately it's also going to come with forcing people to expose themselves against their will. Don't send your kid to school and we'll take them by force and put them there. So even people who know better are ****ed if this isn't burned out by the time school starts. That should be our goal. Infect all the idiots by the end of summer break. Their kids needs to look like little Jaden up there so my kid doesn't.
I'm 90% decided that my kid will not go to school this year.
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Old 05-26-2020, 12:33 PM
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InOmaha said,

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It's time to get everyone sick, let the old people die off, and hope it doesn't circle back for the young. It's going to happen anyway, so let's get it over and done.
Although "old people" are more likely than younger people to become really sick with COVID-19 and are more likely to die from it, it's not just "old people" who are at risk. Plenty of younger people have gotten sick, and some have died; some of the ones that have been declared "recovered" have damage to lungs and possibly other organs, and it's not known if that damage will turn out to be permanent. And, some formerly healthy children have gotten sick from COVID-19. Some of the kids have had strokes and might never be healthy again. A few kids have died from COVID-19.

And BTW, "old people" are not expendable. I'm a healthy and very active 69 year old, and I expect to travel around the sun many more times before I give it up to the Grim Reaper

Another thing is that scientists are not yet confident that the pandemic will be "over and done with" if a lot of people get COVID-19. A recent study by the Korean Centers for Disease Control SUGGESTS that individuals recovered from COVID-19 might have immunity, but we can't rely on this information until other reputable scientists replicate those results. Also, assuming said immunity does exist, we need to wait awhile to understand how long said immunity will last.

Lastly, it appears you (and others here) don't actually understand the long-term strategy behind the mitigation mandates and guidelines. The mandates and guidelines have been issued to slow down the spread of the disease so hospitals won't be overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients while we're waiting for at least some of the following: an effective vaccine, herd immunity, accurate and widely deployable testing methodology.
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Old 05-26-2020, 12:50 PM
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Originally Posted by MyPrepperLife View Post
InOmaha said,



Although "old people" are more likely than younger people to become really sick with COVID-19 and are more likely to die from it, it's not just "old people" who are at risk. Plenty of younger people have gotten sick, and some have died; some of the ones that have been declared "recovered" have damage to lungs and possibly other organs, and it's not known if that damage will turn out to be permanent. And, some formerly healthy children have gotten sick from COVID-19. Some of the kids have had strokes and might never be healthy again. A few kids have died from COVID-19.

And BTW, "old people" are not expendable. I'm a healthy and very active 69 year old, and I expect to travel around the sun many more times before I give it up to the Grim Reaper

Another thing is that scientists are not yet confident that the pandemic will be "over and done with" if a lot of people get COVID-19. A recent study by the Korean Centers for Disease Control SUGGESTS that individuals recovered from COVID-19 might have immunity, but we can't rely on this information until other reputable scientists replicate those results. Also, assuming said immunity does exist, we need to wait awhile to understand how long said immunity will last.

Lastly, it appears you (and others here) don't actually understand the long-term strategy behind the mitigation mandates and guidelines. The mandates and guidelines have been issued to slow down the spread of the disease so hospitals won't be overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients while we're waiting for at least some of the following: a effective vaccine, herd immunity, accurate and widely deployable testing methodology.
We know. We're accepting the mountain of bodies.

It's inevitable because it's clear at this point that people can, but they WILL NOT do what is necessary to avoid the mountain of bodies. We have concluded that they deserve it because of their own choices and there's no saving them. We've cut them loose. The only question now is how to save those of us who do care about our survival and do take this seriously. The people that don't deserve it.

The clear answer to that is for all the people who don't want to avoid infection need to get out and they need to get infected quickly. We need the mountain of bodies to smother the virus. Half-measures will only make the virus live forever and keep the rest of us bottled up forever. You need everyone either isolated or already infected so the virus has no one left to infect. And you can't spread that out long enough for people to have a chance to recover and get infected again to prolong the pandemic even more.

I guess people don't understand how 'herd immunity' works. Herd immunity means you sicken/kill so much of your herd the virus can't find anyone else to infect. There is no such thing as herd immunity that does not devastate your population and cripple your society. If the virus doesn't get the vast majority of your population, then it's going to find more people to infect.
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Old 05-26-2020, 12:54 PM
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I totally understand. But if we're going to open wide up that means we're taking the herd mentality route. Masks, stay at home, whatever isn't going to stop it so to get that herd immunity it needs to escalate quickly or we risk mutation and reinfection.

It's the way we as states and a country have now decided to handle the issue. Catch it and move on. We can't do that willy-nilly like we tried the other measures or it won't work either.

In my county 25-49 year old people represent 51.1% of the COVID-19 cases. 50-65 are 22.2% and 5-24 are 14.5%. So old people aren't a lot of the cases here at 9%. But the number of deaths in those categories are 10%, 13.3%, 0%, and 76.7%. So for the sake of people under 25 who cares if 25-100 year olds die? That's what herd immunity does. Keeps the stronger of the herd alive while the others die off. So far that's saving the ~0-35 years old crowd.

Funny enough .511*.100 = .0511, .222*.133 =.0295 and .09*.767 = .06903. So even though more older people die when they catch it, more younger people are catching it and the total number of deaths in the young and old groups are similar. The smart group appears to be 50-64 year olds who know enough to minimize their risk of catching it and at the same time are almost as likely to get over it as the younger age group.

Everyone over 25 (like me) are the people we'll sacrifice for herd immunity. A higher percentage of over 65 will die, but the total numbers of people dying will be about the same for the different age groups. One side will catch it in volume because they don't feel it will kill them due to the odds. One side will avoid it as much as possible but probably die if they get it. So their total death number will be about the same. The group in the middle will balance the 2 as best they can.

But now we're back to statistics and paying attention to how the virus interacts with different demographics, races, cultures, income groups, and the hard stuff to figure out.

It's easier just to let it rip through the younger crowd and shield the old people while it burns through faster. That way older people have a better chance of sheltering for a shorter duration and making it through. If we protect the people over 65, then the same number of people 25-49 will still die as those old farts would have; due to their much higher volume of cases with a lower death rate.

Of the 100,000 or so that have died so far, 1/2 of them have been over 65 and 1/2 of them are other ages. If we do herd immunity, and shelter in place the older generation, maybe 1/4 of the next 100,000 are over 65 and 3/4 of them are other ages.

The smarter age group (mine 50-64) may use a combination of protection, better jobs, and lower odds of death to stay below the young crazy crowd or old fogies. I'll have to search national statistics to see if that holds true for other areas or if it's specific to my state.
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Old 05-26-2020, 01:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Colt View Post
We know. We're accepting the mountain of bodies.

It's inevitable because it's clear at this point that people can, but they WILL NOT do what is necessary to avoid the mountain of bodies. We have concluded that they deserve it because of their own choices and there's no saving them. We've cut them loose. The only question now is how to save those of us who do care about our survival and do take this seriously. The people that don't deserve it.

The clear answer to that is for all the people who don't want to avoid infection need to get out and they need to get infected quickly. We need the mountain of bodies to smother the virus. Half-measures will only make the virus live forever and keep the rest of us bottled up forever. You need everyone either isolated or already infected so the virus has no one left to infect. And you can't spread that out long enough for people to have a chance to recover and get infected again to prolong the pandemic even more.

I guess people don't understand how 'herd immunity' works. Herd immunity means you sicken/kill so much of your herd the virus can't find anyone else to infect. There is no such thing as herd immunity that does not devastate your population and cripple your society. If the virus doesn't get the vast majority of your population, then it has someone left to infect.
I totally get all of this. (Sorry - I didn't have time to read the entire thread.) You've refined your thinking a bit more than I had before I read your post, and now that I've read it, I'm totally on board with your plan.

As you've said,

Quote:
The only question now is how to save those of us who do care about our survival and do take this seriously.
RIGHT. Well, because of the pandemic, a couple months ago I accepted the idea that living the rest of my life as a quasi-hermit might be the best plan for me. And I might very well do that. I could pull it off. I work at home, and I'm going to retire soon anyway. I live alone. I enjoy my own company. I keep in touch with family and friends on line and by phone. During the past three months I've learned I can buy virtually anything I need or want on line and have it shipped to my house. I do realize few people could live this way, or would want to, but it's been working for me since early March, and I could continue living this way indefinitely.
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Old 05-26-2020, 01:18 PM
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I like that 'how dare you' OP. Reminds me of Greta.

Personally I wear masks when around people.
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Old 05-26-2020, 01:30 PM
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I was looking for: *I'll live without one but grandma and grandpa are toast* I can picture that little freak Greta saying that...with an accent.
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Old 05-26-2020, 01:35 PM
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Default I Wish I Had the Option to Shop in a Low Virus Area...

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... I still drive to areas where the number of diagnosed cases is zero or nearly zero to get groceries. I wear an N95, gloves, and face shield. Each item gets individually disinfected before it goes into the car....
And I never figured out how to keep my car clean...I just gave up and declared it a "red zone."

Unfortunately my city and area (with 35% of the population) has been the COVID-19 "epicentre" (with >70% of the cases) in our province. In the capital, as in most of the rest of the province, the outbreaks have been small and easily contained. Ours have been much bigger, though trending down since mid-April, but continue to flare, especially now in meat-packing plants. But I would have to drive literally hours to find a store of any size in a low-virus area.

Worse, I just now learned (while checking on the average size of a Costco warehouse) that the Costco where I have my prescriptions on file just happens to be the busiest one in North America (WTF? Out of 6 in the area? Just lucky, I guess). No wonder the lineups to get in at 9am take half an hour to clear (not that I would ever go then)! No wonder I'm grateful to everyone else for wearing masks!

On the plus side, it must be said that we probably have a lot of cases because we have done a lot of testing: only 2.79% of tests have been positive and our CFR is <2% of confirmed cases. Hospitals did not get overwhelmed. Tracing has been excellent, and virtually all new cases here have a known source. Reopening was allowed first in the low-virus areas, but is just now starting in our little hotspot.

But--in this most redneck of Canadian provinces--even more amazing than the public compliance with the wearing of masks, has been the uncompromising approach to the 14 day self-isolation of returning residents from winter destinations (the main source of infections early on). Snowbirds, as a group, are pretty prosperous and entitled.

So when our Conservative premier said back in March, "You will go straight home. You will not stop first at WalMart; you will not go out to put away your RV; you will not go pick up your dog from the sitter; we will help you find a way to get groceries and household needs," I held my breath, wondering if it would stick. By and large, it did. There were big FaceBook groups dedicated to running errands for those in isolation. And we saw normally polite Canadians getting pretty chippy toward big RV's parked in WalMart parking lots near the US border.

I don't want it to sound like Canadians are the poster children for beating this thing. There were plenty of mistakes early on; arrivals were not isolated soon enough; guidance on cloth masks was initially wrong; the toll in senior care facilities has been horrendous. Montreal is a mini-New York. Testing and tracing have inexplicably been a big problem in our 2 largest provinces, where the curve may have been "flattened" a bit, but the outbreak is far from under control, as evidenced by the fact that fatality rates in Canada as a whole are slowly catching up to those in the US.

But for anyone who thinks Conservatives and masks don't go together, just come and park amongst the pickup trucks and stand in line at the busiest Costco in North America! If you're not wearing a mask, you're going to hear about it.
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Old 05-26-2020, 01:52 PM
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It's inevitable because it's clear at this point that people can, but they WILL NOT do what is necessary to avoid the mountain of bodies. We have concluded that they deserve it because of their own choices and there's no saving them. We've cut them loose. The only question now is how to save those of us who do care about our survival and do take this seriously. The people that don't deserve it.
I'm not there yet. But I'm getting there.

I still have some hope that a 'hill' of bodies will turn enough people around.

I'm not sure yet that its really 'people' who have decided, but maybe just a weak, decadent minority who are going to have to be taught a harsh lesson.

But really, I don't know what is going to happen.

I do know that as long as you pay attention you can stay ahead of the curve because most people just don't react fast enough. You don't have to be able to see the future, if you can just see the present that is good enough.
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Old 05-26-2020, 02:06 PM
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It's really hard to read the labels on that graph. Does that rightmost tall bar have something to do with Memorial Day weekend? (I doubt it, becuse it seems like there would be some lag time before the holiday weekend and any spike resulting from it.)
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Old 05-26-2020, 02:12 PM
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Wearing a mask beats the hell out of being intubated every time!
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Old 05-26-2020, 02:18 PM
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Originally Posted by MyPrepperLife View Post
It's really hard to read the labels on that graph. Does that rightmost tall bar have something to do with Memorial Day weekend? (I doubt it, becuse it seems like there would be some lag time before the holiday weekend and any spike resulting from it.)
All this stuff is delayed about 2 weeks as that's how long it takes to develop symptoms and get tested. So infections occurred around the 11th, or a week after reopening began. We began opening May 4th. Cities and countries followed suite over the course of that week. May 4th-11th.

On the 31st we open up even more. Right now things are supposed to be reduced capacity.
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Old 05-26-2020, 02:27 PM
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Default The "Smarter Age Group?" I'm Dying to Hear More

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Originally Posted by InOmaha View Post
...The smarter age group (mine 50-64) may use a combination of protection, better jobs, and lower odds of death to stay below the young crazy crowd or old fogies. I'll have to search national statistics to see if that holds true for other areas or if it's specific to my state.
Actually I enjoyed the rest of your post and viewpoint, too, but this cracked me up...Warren Buffet being amongst the "old fogies" in your area, but you Gen Xer's are the "smarter age group." Hey, knock yourselves out!
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Old 05-26-2020, 02:38 PM
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Originally Posted by ambos lados View Post
And I never figured out how to keep my car clean...I just gave up and declared it a "red zone."
Mother nature helps us out there. It's hot here, 95-100F+ days. Car interior temps reach 135F+ quickly, killing the virus. After I do a grocery store run I leave my car in the sun for a few hours and it's decontaminated.

Alternatively, could you run an ozone generator in your car?

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Originally Posted by ambos lados View Post
But I would have to drive literally hours to find a store of any size in a low-virus area.
Yeah, it's starting to get that way here, too. On each trip I have to drive further and further away to find areas where confirmed cases are <10. I have to bring several coolers with ice to keep refrigerated and frozen items cold enough to make it back home. Pretty soon even driving out of state won't help.
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Old 05-26-2020, 02:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Goodwrench708 View Post
Here it is.... if I donít feel like wearing a useless mask when walking out the doors of a business or while driving my truck... I do believe itís my right to take it off

If that hurts anyoneís feelings on here.... oh well. My comfort comes before your made up fears.

I do believe I told you I wear the damn mask where it is required... but last time I checked...no one says I have to wear it in my truck or walking in a parking lot.

I think itís pretty simple. If not maybe I can type...slowwwer for you
Snowflake is strong with you.

N95, homemade thingy, bandana, chicom paper, etc are not about protecting you from melting. It's to prevent you from spewing on/infecting others. Quit certain no the 1st (50th) time you've heard this. Why do you insist on being deliberately being obtuse and playing kiddie games?

And yes, humped a ruck many a mile.
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