Italy COVID19 projections - Survivalist Forum
Survivalist Forum

Advertise Here

Go Back   Survivalist Forum > > >
Articles Classifieds Donations Gallery Groups Links Store Survival Files


Notices

Advertise Here
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-15-2020, 03:13 PM
9mmMike's Avatar
9mmMike 9mmMike is offline
VIP Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Tennessee
Posts: 6,605
Thanks: 289
Thanked 13,760 Times in 3,655 Posts
Default Italy COVID19 projections



Advertise Here

Buona giornata!

Okay, unless you want me to say left, right or straight or other greetings, that is about the extent of my Italian. I have taken the Italian values from:

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/

And entered them into a predictive spreadsheet I developed for the USA. At midnight each night I enter the new total cases value into the appropriate column, then extend the graph to include the new value and then re-enter the coefficients into the fields above to fine tune the model.

Hope this is helpful.

9mmMike
Attached Files
File Type: xls Italy_coronapojections.xls (24.0 KB, 45 views)
Quick reply to this message
The Following User Says Thank You to 9mmMike For This Useful Post:
Old 03-18-2020, 02:04 PM
Dragunov's Avatar
Dragunov Dragunov is offline
TEXAS!!!
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The Great Republic of Texas!
Posts: 7,216
Thanks: 10,758
Thanked 11,359 Times in 4,378 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 9mmMike View Post
Buona giornata!

Okay, unless you want me to say left, right or straight or other greetings, that is about the extent of my Italian. I have taken the Italian values from:

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/

And entered them into a predictive spreadsheet I developed for the USA. At midnight each night I enter the new total cases value into the appropriate column, then extend the graph to include the new value and then re-enter the coefficients into the fields above to fine tune the model.

Hope this is helpful.

9mmMike
My prayers, and thoughts, are with Italy.
Quick reply to this message
Old 03-18-2020, 05:02 PM
4X4's Avatar
4X4 4X4 is offline
Basket of deplorables
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 1,701
Thanks: 6,482
Thanked 5,222 Times in 1,405 Posts
Default

I saw on the news today that Italy is reporting 475 deaths from today alone. I know it's the "news" but I heard it from different sources. Anyone over there with up to date info on this?
Quick reply to this message
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
Old 03-18-2020, 06:29 PM
9mmMike's Avatar
9mmMike 9mmMike is offline
VIP Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Tennessee
Posts: 6,605
Thanks: 289
Thanked 13,760 Times in 3,655 Posts
Default

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Quick reply to this message
Old 03-19-2020, 05:37 PM
CastorePolluce CastorePolluce is offline
Newbie
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 7
Thanks: 0
Thanked 11 Times in 5 Posts
Default

Hi at all.....here, in Italy, the situation is very strange....every media talking about Covid-19 but it seems a virtual epidemic. Around the streets there are a very few cops that control people.....and in the hospitals there are a very few sick people.I don't know what is happening now in the world...but the politicians are playing with our(your) lifes and dreams.....Sorry for my english..Hi
Quick reply to this message
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to CastorePolluce For This Useful Post:
Old 03-19-2020, 05:43 PM
Cornly2's Avatar
Cornly2 Cornly2 is offline
VIP Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: Guadalupe Co Tx
Posts: 1,524
Thanks: 20,001
Thanked 7,602 Times in 1,378 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by CastorePolluce View Post
Hi at all.....here, in Italy, the situation is very strange....every media talking about Covid-19 but it seems a virtual epidemic. Around the streets there are a very few cops that control people.....and in the hospitals there are a very few sick people.I don't know what is happening now in the world...but the politicians are playing with our(your) lifes and dreams.....Sorry for my english..Hi
Thanks for the info.

And by the way, your English is just perfect enough for me to believe you are actually in Italy, or you're one of the best trolls ever. If you're not a troll, then your English is good enough.

Please keep us updated and tell us more of what's going on. I know I'd appreciate it.
Quick reply to this message
The Following User Says Thank You to Cornly2 For This Useful Post:
Old 03-19-2020, 06:14 PM
CastorePolluce CastorePolluce is offline
Newbie
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 7
Thanks: 0
Thanked 11 Times in 5 Posts
Default

thanks for your kindness....i'm not a troll 'cause i'm not interested on US politicians. I'm Italian....and i live in Italy ..i would only say that the things are different
Quick reply to this message
The Following User Says Thank You to CastorePolluce For This Useful Post:
Old 03-19-2020, 06:50 PM
Cornly2's Avatar
Cornly2 Cornly2 is offline
VIP Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: Guadalupe Co Tx
Posts: 1,524
Thanks: 20,001
Thanked 7,602 Times in 1,378 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by CastorePolluce View Post
thanks for your kindness....i'm not a troll 'cause i'm not interested on US politicians. I'm Italian....and i live in Italy ..i would only say that the things are different
Ok, well give us details. Our news is giving us virtually nothing about whats going on in Italy. The news just posts numbers.

Even the simple day to day stuff is interesting, at least to me. So please tell us what you can!

Lol, you may become this entire board's "Italian diplomat" for all I know.

We welcome your thoughts and observations.
Quick reply to this message
Old 03-20-2020, 10:58 AM
Dragunov's Avatar
Dragunov Dragunov is offline
TEXAS!!!
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The Great Republic of Texas!
Posts: 7,216
Thanks: 10,758
Thanked 11,359 Times in 4,378 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by CastorePolluce View Post
thanks for your kindness....i'm not a troll 'cause i'm not interested on US politicians. I'm Italian....and i live in Italy ..i would only say that the things are different
My thoughts, and prayers are with Italy. God Bless, and prayers for speedy recoveries.
Quick reply to this message
The Following User Says Thank You to Dragunov For This Useful Post:
Old 03-20-2020, 03:43 PM
CastorePolluce CastorePolluce is offline
Newbie
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 7
Thanks: 0
Thanked 11 Times in 5 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dragunov View Post
My thoughts, and prayers are with Italy. God Bless, and prayers for speedy recoveries.
Thanks Dragunov.....but i think that is a global .....bluff
Quick reply to this message
Old 03-20-2020, 04:00 PM
CastorePolluce CastorePolluce is offline
Newbie
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 7
Thanks: 0
Thanked 11 Times in 5 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cornly2 View Post
Ok, well give us details. Our news is giving us virtually nothing about whats going on in Italy. The news just posts numbers.

Even the simple day to day stuff is interesting, at least to me. So please tell us what you can!

Lol, you may become this entire board's "Italian diplomat" for all I know.

We welcome your thoughts and observations.

Also here media every days reports covid-19 infecteds.....but there's something strange.. for example, i live near Siena...and my friend that work in a hospital told me that the situation is normal.....doesn't seems strange?
Quick reply to this message
The Following User Says Thank You to CastorePolluce For This Useful Post:
Old 03-20-2020, 04:04 PM
Cornly2's Avatar
Cornly2 Cornly2 is offline
VIP Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: Guadalupe Co Tx
Posts: 1,524
Thanks: 20,001
Thanked 7,602 Times in 1,378 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by CastorePolluce View Post
Also here media every days reports covid-19 infecteds.....but there's something strange.. for example, i live near Siena...and my friend that work in a hospital told me that the situation is normal.....doesn't seems strange?
It kinda does. But that's happening here also. There are areas in my state reporting all kinds of problems, but our local hospitals are operating normally.

It's hard to know what's strange when everything is strange right now!
Quick reply to this message
Old 03-20-2020, 04:36 PM
9mmMike's Avatar
9mmMike 9mmMike is offline
VIP Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Tennessee
Posts: 6,605
Thanks: 289
Thanked 13,760 Times in 3,655 Posts
Default

Here is my latest version of the spreadsheet. Looks like the cases are starting to heal over, I pray they continue to do so!
Attached Files
File Type: xls Italy_coronapojections.xls (40.0 KB, 51 views)
Quick reply to this message
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to 9mmMike For This Useful Post:
Old 03-21-2020, 11:40 AM
4X4's Avatar
4X4 4X4 is offline
Basket of deplorables
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 1,701
Thanks: 6,482
Thanked 5,222 Times in 1,405 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 9mmMike View Post
Here is my latest version of the spreadsheet. Looks like the cases are starting to heal over, I pray they continue to do so!
I'm not exactly sure it is settling down just yet. OAN just reported 621 deaths there yesterday alone.
Quick reply to this message
The Following User Says Thank You to 4X4 For This Useful Post:
Old 03-21-2020, 01:36 PM
9mmMike's Avatar
9mmMike 9mmMike is offline
VIP Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Tennessee
Posts: 6,605
Thanks: 289
Thanked 13,760 Times in 3,655 Posts
Default

Here is what I mean, the number of new cases is no longer fully exponential, it is starting to heal over. Of course it could just be reporting bias.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	italy_0320.jpg
Views:	35
Size:	34.1 KB
ID:	299952  
Quick reply to this message
The Following User Says Thank You to 9mmMike For This Useful Post:
Old 03-21-2020, 09:07 PM
Dragunov's Avatar
Dragunov Dragunov is offline
TEXAS!!!
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The Great Republic of Texas!
Posts: 7,216
Thanks: 10,758
Thanked 11,359 Times in 4,378 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by CastorePolluce View Post
Thanks Dragunov.....but i think that is a global .....bluff
You're welcome. I majored in Toxicology, which delves quite deeply into Virology, and Bacteriology in college, and I have my own opinions on this virus. I can tell you this: We're being lied to, because what they're saying, and what I'm seeing, does NOT add up....... At all!
Quick reply to this message
Old 04-01-2020, 02:47 PM
CastorePolluce CastorePolluce is offline
Newbie
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 7
Thanks: 0
Thanked 11 Times in 5 Posts
Default

Hi, sorry for my late reply. What did you mean for "what I'm seeing, does NOT add up....... At all!"?
Quick reply to this message
Old 04-03-2020, 10:13 AM
Dragunov's Avatar
Dragunov Dragunov is offline
TEXAS!!!
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The Great Republic of Texas!
Posts: 7,216
Thanks: 10,758
Thanked 11,359 Times in 4,378 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by CastorePolluce View Post
Hi, sorry for my late reply. What did you mean for "what I'm seeing, does NOT add up....... At all!"?
They're saying the R0 is 2.5. It's not. It's more along the lines of R6, and it's not airborne according to "them". All that I'm seeing, says it is. At least to a point. Not as deadly as some other diseases, but far easier to catch.

Is it as deadly as Spanish flu? Probably not. Is it more deadly than the current flu strain? Well, let's see the numbers after a year.
Quick reply to this message
Reply

Bookmarks



Quick Reply
Message:
Options

Register Now

In order to be able to post messages on the Survivalist Forum forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.
User Name:
Password
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.
Password:
Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.
Email Address:
Gender
Insurance
Please select your insurance company (Optional)

Log-in

Human Verification

In order to verify that you are a human and not a spam bot, please enter the answer into the following box below based on the instructions contained in the graphic.



Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:12 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Optimisation provided by DragonByte SEO (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2020 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
vBulletin Security provided by vBSecurity v2.2.2 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2020 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Copyright © Kevin Felts 2006 - 2015,
Green theme by http://www.themesbydesign.net