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Old 08-23-2019, 10:30 PM
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One of things that I see posted fairly often are vast declarative statements bookending a survival scenario.

"I will only ever need to shoot out to 100 yards"

"Its okay my BOB is so light because its only designed for 2 weeks"

"I won't ever need 4WD"

"I'll only ever need to fire a couple shots"

and I always want to know "How do you know that?" To which I very seldom get any answer at all or if I do, its not very satisfactory.

Personally, I have no idea what ranges I may need to be able to shoot at. No idea at all, so I try to prep for as far out as I can manage.

I have no idea how long I would need to bug out for but I think anything so bad it chases me out of my home is going to be something that doesn't go away any time soon, if ever.

I don't know what roads I will have to be able to drive on, if any...but I know I want the most capability I can manage.

I have no idea how much ammo, if any, I will need for SHTF, or how much shooting I will have to do, or how quickly I will have to do it....but I want guns that hold the most ammo I can get and can shoot it rapidly just in case that is what I need.

In short, I feel like there is an enormous amount of things we don't know about SHTF....things we can't know about it, and that its almost never possible to say "I won't need X" for SHTF because most of what makes SHTF, SHTF, is that its not normal in anyway and so extraordinary amounts, ranges, capabilities are probably going to be needed.

Now obviously, everything ends up being a compromise so its not as simple as just having the best of everything but the whole idea of thinking you know the upper limit of what you need seems to be antithetical to prepping.

IMO, there are are lot of questions for which there is no answer but which none the less, people should be asking themselves.
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Old 08-23-2019, 11:05 PM
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One of things that I see posted fairly often are vast declarative statements bookending a survival scenario.
I agree, the sort of language you describe is unrealistic, and in this endeavor being unrealistic can be deadly.

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IMO, there are are lot of questions for which there is no answer but which none the less, people should be asking themselves.
Once again I agree. All things are a matter of degree and probability, but the extremes must be explored, in light of the fact of possibility.

I think it is difficult for people to explore so far from the most probable, especially if they are new to it all, and perhaps feel that they aren't all that capable. Then there are those who simply deny the possibilities because they are afraid, or lazy, and in denial they don't have to deal with such things at all.

If one were to see the totality of threat, of need, and try to comprehend it as such, it would be intimidating, frightening, too much to handle, and so denial enables them to take it in tiny bites, much easier to deal with.

There is the language people employ, and then there are the thoughts that motivate such language, and often the person using the language is not honest with themselves, or even aware of the true motivations.

What we don't know, our ignorance is abiding, we always exist in a state of relative ignorance, and at times it frightens me, no matter what I think I know, or the gear I have accumulated, or the countless scenarios I have gamed in my mind and with others. So yes, having an open mind, learning everything one is capable of, facing the possible realities we may be confronted with. What choice do we really have, if we are serious about surviving whatever may happen?
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Old 08-23-2019, 11:21 PM
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Quite right, since SHTF can take multiple forms, and we won't know what the conditions will be or what will be needed to overcome them until we're right in the thick of it, so we can't get locked into a box limiting the scope of what might be needed to prepare for what's ahead.
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Old 08-24-2019, 12:43 AM
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On the flip side, I think attempting to prep for every eventuality is an effort in futility. But I get what you're talking about. Sometimes you'll see some statements made with such conviction, that it's readily apparent the the speaker has no idea about the subject. It's sometimes better to let peoe live in their delusion, than it is to poke holes.
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Old 08-24-2019, 01:12 AM
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I think attempting to prep for every eventuality is an effort in futility.
Yes it is, and impossible no matter how much money and time one has.

There is a difference between attempting to prep for every possible contingency, and considering the many possibilities, so as to, at the least recognize the reality of said possibilities. This affords a certain level of familiarity, even if one doesn't specifically prep for it, and avoids the possibility of being blindsided by things that were denied, not even considered.

I have heard people say, I have a bug out location, well stocked, defensible, etc, and three routes to get there. I've tried each route and know the time parameters. I carry only what I absolutely need, to follow any of the routes within a given amount of time. They tighten it all up with precision, got it all nailed down, don't carry anything but the necessities. Then I ask, mostly to myself, what if that doesn't work out? What if that one day trip lasts one week, two weeks because of unforeseen circumstances? Do you carry enough to cover that possibility? If one is an adherent of Murphy's law, then you know the carefully laid plan is guaranteed to not work out that way.

The sort of thinking the OP describes is quite common, as are the statements that indicate the myopic mindset.

The flip side is carrying an inch bag and a battle rifle when going to feed the chickens, because there is a very remote possibility that aliens may abduct you. Now that's just pure paranoia, or really good herb.
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Old 08-24-2019, 01:50 AM
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Great thread!

I too am bewildered at the comments of people defending their 10 lb high speed emergency bags.

"Oh, I don't need any traps or fishing kit, or stove or water pump or silcock key or multitool. I don't need an Axe or wood saw or blanket and bivvy. There won't be time for any of that".

How do they know all this? I would hear those arguments when sailing also. My boat always had tools, gear and supplies to handle lots of things going wrong. And I usually used that stuff to bail other boaters out that "knew better and didn't need all that stuff".
(Except they did need it).

On one BOB thread I think I even made the exasperated comment that they should just pack a pair of Speedos and some running shoes (Because they had it all figured out that they needed to move 30 miles and that's it.)
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Old 08-24-2019, 03:22 AM
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Oh, I could see reasons defending a 10lb bag.

But it would be something along the lines of "This bag is just for if my car breaks down on the way to town, or "Its my GHB for walking home five miles"

Or whatever. But saying "That is all I am ever going to need in SHTF" is the kind of statement that would have me asking...."How do you know?

Just like there is a difference between someone just saying "Yeah, I don't prep for that" and "That will never happen to me"

Its one thing to just make calculated decisions based on what your capabilities are, its another to just pretend that your somehow immune from issues that people have faced in SHTF throughout history without having a very good reason behind that.
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Old 08-24-2019, 04:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Aerindel View Post

IMO, there are are lot of questions for which there is no answer but which none the less, people should be asking themselves.


Everyones needs are different based on their situation and what they are prioritizing.

Not everyone has a lot of money to just get whatever they want, and I think the overall considerations of cost to likely needs is often the major consideration.

Oddly what I've noticed is that a handful of people who are youtube preppers for instance are not run of the mill preppers they are actually business owners and are up the food chain quite a bit. These people are in a way a bit like the pro athletes of prepping because they have put a full time effort into prepping beause it is part of the business plan in addition to being beneficial as far as capacity goes. Running a survival/camping/surpus store is probably one of the best fits for a prepping lifestyle, right up there with operating a farm or camp of some sort.

The other major issues is that there are also legal considerations. Most places don't let you shoot beyond what you can see. You need to account not only for your target but anywhere you bullet can travel. This presents an issue when shooting out to long ranges. Common sense says you never never never want to talk about breaking the law or intending to break the law, not only is it stupid it can often be seen as intent, and intent is 100% equal consideration to actually commiting an offence in most jurisdictions and likewise counselling or aiding someone in those violations is also breaking the law. People have this sense of net anonyminity but anyone who has an indepth knowledge of the subject knows a few details that if required the government can and some governments are logging your online communications. Most proxy services are controlled or intercepted by government, and most peoples level of communications is not anonymous in as much they could be held accountable for stating intents to break the law online and anything posted could be used to build a profile against them. I know from my own situation my online communications were and probably still are logged by the government, they scrape communications and have officers actively collecting information on things like fireearms use. These posts then can be used to subtantiate denials for access to firearms, or even warrants to search properties where violations are suspected. Anything said can and be used against you that you post, and often the case postings, comedy and otherwise can be misinterpreted by accident or even intentionally to use a case to violate your rights and protections. Not only where you live but anywhere you travel for your entire life.

Quote:
"Its okay my BOB is so light because its only designed for 2 weeks"
Some people really arn't prepared to bug out for real, most are just temporary ease of transit bags that are intended to cushion them in the immediate aftermath of a life changing emergency. So many people are not prepared to carry life for more than two weeks. Two weeks of food is actually already pretty damn heavy, to carry on your back. Often hunting and trapping activities are regulated such that intentionally stating intending hunting or trapping could also be a criminal offence without proper permits. It is known as poaching and police or other regulatory officials police it in differing activities by jurisidiction. Some jurisdictions enable no knock warrants and violations result in confiscation of all equipment and properties used for storage of poached items including homes, land and camps in a type of default forfeiture / seizure even without an arrest occuring or charges. Only suspicion is required in how it is exercised, no actual offence or proof, only supsicion, and intent IS equal to commital of an offence. There are generally no excuses to break the law and even presumption of need to survive is not deemed acceptable if there were legal alternatives like going somewhere else.

I know from my own experience prepping activites, have often exposed me to information that the government doesn't want people to have, access to military information, information that after the fact is deemed a national security risk often times is information that is very useful for a prepper but deemed to be dangerous for the public to have access to. Discussion of all prepping activies can be a substantial OPSEC issue even if your operation just protecting yourself from things and people who may cause you harm. People need to draw a line firmly on discussing illegal activities even in WROL contexts those hypotheticals and be used to profile you as having criminal intents for reasons prior mentioned. Capability can translate to threat assessment level by government agents who see you as not being on their team and thus are a potential public safety threat due to having capabilities or information they don't want the public to have access to- even if beneficial for prepping and extending your life.

Quote:
"I won't ever need 4WD"
This must be a cost issue because everyone would take 4WD or change up.. bear in mind 4wd will increase cost due to increased fuel consumption and repair costs etc... so 4wd is going to cost your more over the span of your life. Some people are really tight driving hatchbacks. Not everyone can afford the increased costs, some people don't even have vehicles. As an aside even police forces have their MRAPs in storage due to the cost of operating the vehicles where relatively lighter duty cruisers are used instead because they cost less to operate. Bear in mind for trucks 4wd is a great thing to have if you have a heavy duty chasis. 4wd on light duty is a little dangerous so you are probably looking at 20K+ for a good 4wd vehicle. Lots of urban folks use a 5k shuttle for life and work just fine, it is easier for parking in the city. Its just a money thing and where they are located. Family people are more likely to get SUVs for family. Singles and couples more likely to get sport or jeeps etc. for weekending. Its just a lifestyle thing. It is the rural folks farmers, construction workers that are going to want 4wd vehicles because they are active in off road activities and are more likely to be hauling loads that require better traction.


Quote:
"I'll only ever need to fire a couple shots"
Most legal firearms activities only require a couple shots. The idea that joe blow citizens are going to need to get into gun fights reaks of delusional thought processes that again will be a bar on access to firearms. Even people in law enforcement can go their entire career without getting into a protracted gun fights. Where shots are ringing out over time, most folks expect the police to show up, the swat to show up within about 10 minutes and clean up the bodies or take out the shooter. The idea you will be shooting in a gun fight sort of says that you will be the shooter. In remote areas people need to be responsible for their own safety but the vast majority of people are not isolated from law enforcement. Where required police often have waivers on these sorts of things but if you arn't a supplementary police officer chances are you are viewed as a problem point if you arn't working with the government and have those connections with law enforcement. The other consideratiton is military, or possibly militia, but even militia is falling under increased scruitiny so responsible use is required. If you arn't working with a recognized good standing organization you are probably labled a lone wolf threat, or part of an organization or identity that is a risk of domestic terrorism or anti establishment acts.

Again people mining for information on peoples shooting habits, can be seen as data mining for police profiling. Can and does happen.


Quote:
In short, I feel like there is an enormous amount of things we don't know about SHTF....things we can't know about it, and that its almost never possible to say "I won't need X" for SHTF because most of what makes SHTF, SHTF, is that its not normal in anyway and so extraordinary amounts, ranges, capabilities are probably going to be needed.

Now obviously, everything ends up being a compromise so its not as simple as just having the best of everything but the whole idea of thinking you know the upper limit of what you need seems to be antithetical to prepping.
Again food water shelter. Means of gaining information and personal security.
Firearms are primarily a food gathering item, and the ability to use for personal security vary by jurisdiction. Where it does exist, access to firearms especially for use against other humans for personal security is being heavily eroded in favour of law enforcement exclusivity on use of firearms for self defence. Its unfortunate but it is just the way it is going. Protecting yourself is to advocate for responsible use of firearms and not to discuss hypothetical or intents on scenarios where a breach of rule of law is the premise of the scenario. Talking about breaking the law is inviting potential criminal profiling. Contingency planning is one thing but discussing criminal acts within contigencies for what you see as WROL or protection of life is a fuzzy area that could bring substantial liabilities.Not everyone knows the law, but the law can be quite onorus on limiting capacity especially as it pertains to activities like hunting and personal security those are two heavily scruitinized areas of law that are heavily regulated and you could without even knowing be discussing unlawful activities, as the regulations differ heavily by jurisdiction. This is contrast from state to state and locality to locality where the rules change and transport accross boundaries can be illegal. People so easily be drawn into group think and are compelled by mob / group influences. This is not even bringing in considerations for agent provacatuers, nefarious under cover operations/sting/takedowns and disruption exercises both of domestic and foreign organizations. Far too much to bring up that would better be served in another thread.

Just a FYI maximum allowable firing range differs by local but 200 yards is often seen as the upper limit on safe discharge AND that has to be in an unobstructed sight .. meaning no trees or other obstructions like hills etc.. that can obscure view of not only what your are firing at but anywhere the bullet could acidentally travel or ricochette. This is exasperated by the fact bullets can travel much further distances. Once you start talking about discharging beyond those upper limits you start exposing yourself to criminal intent and unsafe firearms usage. Also what isn't said isn't left to assumption that you intend to comply but mearly the potential or suspicion of violation is enough to take some form of penalizing action through social sanctions, either informal or formal ranging from record of police contacts, police intelligence profile building entries, or default seizures, and disruption activities - such that it creates liabilities, even if no ill intent is personally sought, the capacity to do something is often seen as enough by police to take penalizing actions to disuade and remove that capability even where an actual criminal act or nefarious criminal intent isn't engaged in... again innocent intent is not equivolent to protection from sanctions.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupthink groupthink is very dangerous where there are agent provacatuers and disruption activities sting and dismantling and limiting exercises in concert happening. Be smart people don't allow yourself to be svengalied. Think about what you are being led to think and quesetion it and its legality. Don't assume anything is legal until you have researched the law surrounding an act. I've seen a lot of illegal activities discussed online and I have seen how easy it is for people to be compelled to support acts they don't even realize are illegal. Ignorance is not a defence against stated intents that are unknown as criminal acts. You are still liable not only here but anywhere your words find themsevlves they could be used against you, and it is a very large internet that stretches almost everywhere on the planet. Bottom line protect yourself from liabilities and limit discussion of contravesial topics in public mediums unless you are willing to expose yourself to criminal liabilities and attacks by organizations and government who do not support those things.There are very evil people in the world who will set you up for destruction,play safe. Exercise of personal liberties rightly deserved can result in you being a target for enslavement by people who do not support free exercise based on reasoning by the self as opposed to controls by authority and stakeholder institutions of fonts of power.

Protection isn't about what you think you need to be safe. It is about how others/things beyond your direct control view orinteract with you, and what actions they may take against you based on the threat or benefit of attack you present to them and their capabilities to act against you or your interests.

fonts gain power by gaining direct control over more of the world, and extend their capacities to indirectly influence things beyond their contorl to where advantageous draw more power by increasing their controls over time. People are part of that, you are part of that. Viewing things from self is a form of tunnel vision and in box thinking. You need to see beyond yourself and your needs to fully understand what things present as threats to your interests.

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Old 08-24-2019, 05:27 AM
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As Justme11 said, great thread. All participants have offered valuable insight and perspective.

I'm a person who plans for worst case in all areas of my life, to the extent my resources allow. It's why I've always bought good health insurance, even when I couldn't really afford it. It's why I buy vehicles with good safety records. It's why I wear protective gear when using a chain saw (helmet, gloves, chaps, boots, eye protection, ear protection) - even though my chain saws have safety chains. It's why, when I did computer programming for a living, I tried my best to write code that would not allow the software to crash or hang, even if people used it in ways it was never intended to be used.

Because of this character trait of mine, I have the ultimate prepper mindset, I suppose. It makes me cringe when people on this forum make assumptions about what or what will not happen in an emergency scenario.

I believe there are two reasons why people behave this way.

1. Ignorance. Some folks here truly don't realize just how desperate things could get in an emergency scenario.

2. Irrational rationalizing. A person might have an understanding of how bad an emergency situation could be, and how long it could last - but because the person's spouse or partner isn't on board, or because the person doesn't have financial means for adequate prepping, or because the person just doesn't want to devote a lot of effort to prepping, the person convinces himself that what he's doing is good enough because "such-and-such will never happen." It's the person's way of quelling his cognitive dissonance.

But even with my "worst-case" focus, I believe, like omegaman13, that attempting to prep for every eventuality is an effort in futility - so there are limits beyond which I don't venture in terms of prepping. I don't prep for nuclear holocaust. I have thousands of rounds of ammunition and plan to have even more thousands, but I'll never have hundreds of thousands. I have medical supplies and equipment and plan to have even more, but I'll probably never have what you'd find in (for example) a fully equipped ambulance. I have enough food to sustain myself for at least a couple years, and I plan to have twice as much as that, but that's probably as far as I will go with my preps pantry.
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Old 08-24-2019, 07:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aerindel View Post
One of things that I see posted fairly often are vast declarative statements bookending a survival scenario.

"I will only ever need to shoot out to 100 yards"

"Its okay my BOB is so light because its only designed for 2 weeks"

"I won't ever need 4WD"

"I'll only ever need to fire a couple shots"

and I always want to know "How do you know that?" To which I very seldom get any answer at all or if I do, its not very satisfactory.

Personally, I have no idea what ranges I may need to be able to shoot at. No idea at all, so I try to prep for as far out as I can manage.

I have no idea how long I would need to bug out for but I think anything so bad it chases me out of my home is going to be something that doesn't go away any time soon, if ever.

I don't know what roads I will have to be able to drive on, if any...but I know I want the most capability I can manage.

I have no idea how much ammo, if any, I will need for SHTF, or how much shooting I will have to do, or how quickly I will have to do it....but I want guns that hold the most ammo I can get and can shoot it rapidly just in case that is what I need.

In short, I feel like there is an enormous amount of things we don't know about SHTF....things we can't know about it, and that its almost never possible to say "I won't need X" for SHTF because most of what makes SHTF, SHTF, is that its not normal in anyway and so extraordinary amounts, ranges, capabilities are probably going to be needed.

Now obviously, everything ends up being a compromise so its not as simple as just having the best of everything but the whole idea of thinking you know the upper limit of what you need seems to be antithetical to prepping.

IMO, there are are lot of questions for which there is no answer but which none the less, people should be asking themselves.
The issue is we are generally asking the wrong people.

A refugee from Syria could probably tell you what it takes to escape a country ravaged with war.

The answers we get are from people who have never been without running water and think the store running out of their favorite chips is a problem.
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Old 08-24-2019, 07:14 AM
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From Maine so all vehicles are 4x4.

My B.O.B. is set up as a get home back not a wilderness survival pack. I don't think I'll go on a refugee wandering with my family. But never know.

Those who say they only need to be able to shoot 100 yards--- HAHAHAHAHAHA. That's dumb. While most of my training is CQB type training I do have a 300 yard range. Would like to shoot further even. I primarily shoot 7.62nato so its great at 600 yards +. I was shooting to the 300 yard line and noticed that my rounds are hitting 8" high on the BDC reticle. So I will have to practice more to know my hold overs on that particular reticle. Good thing all my guns are 16" barrel with same scopes and same bullets!
So about that 100 yard thing. If someone can only shoot 100 yards and someone else can shoot 200-600 yards then that 100 yard person is screwed. I'll use 300 blackout for an example. I have 2 of them as nice little pistols. They make a good house/truck gun. But shooting further than like 75-100 yards and they flat out suck. (Sorry if you are a fanboy...not really). That is actually one of the larger prep mistakes that I made thinking that having a quiet/suppressed 300 blackout with subsonic rounds was going to be the ultimate SHTF gun. But it's not as it only goes out 75 yards. Great truck gun but falls short. On the other hand you have 5.56. GREAT out to 200 yards. Can make due out to 400 yards. But really its not made for much further than that. On the other hand the AR10 7.62nato Scar17 guns are capable of much more distance and up close knock down and barrier penetration.
Moving on there are a lot of scenarios that we need to consider in our preps. Animals for instance. Having them is great. But we as a society are use to feeding them pellets from a bag. So having the ability to grow and harvest and process grain by hand would be great. And it only takes a few tools. While you can't ever have enough seeds or food or gear or ammo, having other things is also good.
I think many preppers who say the things OP refereed to are simply justifying that they cannot continue to build their preps or are to lazy to.
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Old 08-24-2019, 07:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dontbuypotteryfromme View Post
The issue is we are generally asking the wrong people.

A refugee from Syria could probably tell you what it takes to escape a country ravaged with war.

The answers we get are from people who have never been without running water and think the store running out of their favorite chips is a problem.
First post I believe that I agree with you on Most of my life experiences are based on seeing countries collapse do to social/political/economic failures of the establishment politicians in other countries bent on tyranny and oppression often disguised has " for the public good or safety " of course it is never really for the people but for the protection of the establishment which in every case in human history is a government ran has a organised crime syndicate. One thing we always plan on in every scenario is Enemies Most Probable Course Of Action and or the Enemies Most Dangerous Course Of Action. Now the enemy can be man , war , economic , and or nature , disease , storms etc. one can pick their own poison on this one. But the bottom line there is no perfect solution because of Murphy's Law and of course Terrain ,Weather, Time , Space and Logistics will all vary for each and everyone of us. I know it does not sound fair but that is just the way it is unfortunately. JMHO and S/FI!
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Old 08-24-2019, 08:15 AM
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Great thread.

The most shocking quote I sometimes see is something like "I don't worry about having water or food because with my xxx weapon and xxx rounds of ammo I'll just take what I need". But when no one else is around? Or the others around also have weapons and ammo?

I think there's also a big risk in assuming that one is likely to be involved in gun battles and better stock up on weapons and ammo to the detriment of other preps. This goes along with previous paragraph in many ways. As an example, if a tornado rips through your location you might need a whole bunch of basic things, none of which are guns and ammo.

From a planning perspective, I think studying past calamities is greatly underrated. There is a wealth of writings on various tragedies and the lessons to be learned. Some of it can be learned just by asking older relatives and friends about various hardships that they (or other family members) had to endure. The caution with this is to not be so myopic to think that you should only prepare for the same things that occurred in the past.

The 2 biggest risks IMO that everyone should prepare for are: (1) lack of clean, drinkable water, and (2) mosquitoes (disease contracted by). Countless people have died from these and continue to do so.

One of the things you don't always see in lists, but should IMO, is either a handkerchief or bandana. So many practical uses for so little space and weight. Very much underrated.
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Old 08-24-2019, 08:42 AM
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There are answers, not always simple ones, but in response to the OP question about why do some people get locked into a particular prepping concepts and refuse to entertain a opposing view? Quite simply that is human nature.

When you have a blindspot you can't see it.

It has been discussed in many Threads that the most likely disasters most people face are going to be mundane ones. Age, death, accident, relationship failures, serious injury, financial difficulties and the like. Prep for those first. Not Alien invasions from Mars. Or pitched battle with the US Marines. Those are fun hobby prepping and have very little purpose since there is no past to point to.
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Old 08-24-2019, 09:08 AM
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You might not be able to "know" what you'll need in any specific situation, but with some careful study you can certainly know what other people have needed during SHTF situations.

The best lessons-learned come from other people's misfortunes.

There are SHTF moments going on nearly every day, and certainly every month, somewhere on the planet. From the slow-motion state break-down in Venezuela (which looks a lot like what could occur if any economy and political cohesion began to break down), to the absolute horror that overtook Yugoslavia in the 1990s when Serbs, Croats, and Bosnian Muslims found themselves back in medieval days, eating rats by candlelight and machine-gunning their neighbors, to the natural disasters that destroy villages and cities on nearly monthly throughout Asia and South America, ...SHTF is occurring on a routine basis.

They often share a lot of similarities - a hurricane hits in Philippines and wipes out a dozen villages, and the authorities cannot get to them because the roads are gone and they need heavy equipment. Several months go by before medical attention and aid can be moved to the area, and by then whoever is left alive has turned feral.

Civil war in Congo ravages villages, everyone moves to camps, then the camps are raided. Authorities are generally ineffective at fighting the guerrillas, even when they can find them.

Syria is one example, but the broader break-down in civil authority throughout the Middle East led to the Caliphate, and before that, it was various religious and/or tribal militant groups such as the Taliban or Tamil Tigers who either displaced federal authorities or fought endless rebellions against governments across north Africa, ME and the subcontinent - Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and down into Indonesia.

Wherever you look, SHTF is characterized by no jobs, lack of cash, official neglect, lack of communications (either shut down by governments or by ineffective infrastructure), road blocks, barter economies, sexual slavery, domination of weak by strong, drug cartels, and general misery.

One of the more important take-aways is that the problems are large, intractable, and difficult to entirely escape. Another is that single individuals are at significant disadvantages. For one, you alone cannot be alert and stand the watch 24/7/365.

Individuals die. Teams survive. Organizations are key to negotiating the numerous barriers and obstacles to gain necessary assets and resources.

Anyone who thinks they'll take their backpack and rifle and move alone through a ravaged landscape hasn't been paying attention. They will discover otherwise.

But the lessons are all out there for anyone who wants to know what SHTF will be like. Perhaps not the unique cause -- but when electricity is out, trucks can't move along roads, travel is constrained and dangerous, road blocks go up, commerce is halted, the grocery stores don't stock food anymore, banks are closed, ATMs don't work, gasoline isn't available for sale, etc.......Does it really matter why?

"Why" is irrelevant. You need to deal with the conditions regardless.

And people all over the world are doing that on a routine basis. We can learn from them what SHTF is like - they're living in SHTF as we speak.
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Old 08-24-2019, 09:23 AM
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Awesome post, Grotius!
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Old 08-24-2019, 10:23 AM
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What's lacking is experience. My bag has been up and down over the years. Too much crap, not enough crap, the wrong crap, the right crap in the wrong bag...but everytime my bag saved my butt over the last 50 years, some minor incidents a few major, I have ADAPTED.
Until YOU actually use YOUR bag, you have no idea what you really need in it. No one else can tell you what needs to be in YOUR bag.
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Old 08-24-2019, 10:32 AM
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Old 08-24-2019, 11:20 AM
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Everyone is different. The range for me here is usually 100 yards at max due to the amount of woodland we have. But I do practice longer shots. My bag is designed for a few days, with fishing gear and water gear. My Bug out routes is woodland and less than 10 miles so walking is no problem. I also live in a very small town less than 6,000 people, which includes the rural area and "city" part. But everyone has there own problems and limits. Some people are more skilled than others. Some have limits due to physical limits and so on. No one has answers because the question is too open-ended.
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Old 08-24-2019, 11:39 AM
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The more capabilities one can develop the better. Like your EDC, it is more rational to have it and never need it, than to need it and not have it!!

4wd is an extra margin of safety. If you are stuck in a mud puddle with 2wd, it is too late. This can even be life threatening.

If a situation develops, I intend to make a stand at my own property, no matter what. I know I should prepare for having to leave it, but it is just not a high priority at this time. I acknowledge that risk, and understand the consequences.
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