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Old 08-22-2019, 09:18 PM
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All is not rosy and as others have mentioned, lots of families and individuals have yet to recover. yes, the individual does create the recession. If this wasn't the case, why is one of the first thing that happens when a recession starts is that there is relief added to the family unit (IE Bush and the tax refund, etc)?

So here are a few other stats that add to the fear being spoken of on the world stage and by the media:
Bankruptcies are up for the 3rd year in a row
Personal debt is at an all-time high $14.1T
Treasure notes are at a near all-time low
140 percent increase in lawsuits filed by debt collectors in Texas. (91,500 debt claims in 2014 to 215,000 last year).
BOA raises the chance of recession to 1-3 in the next 12 months.
A third of the U.S. have no money in savings. (Nearly half could not pay bills beyond 40 days)
7 million car owners are at risk of having their car repossessed due to delinquent payments.


To address a few of you anti-recession concerns:
Obama's numbers were applauded due to the fact we just came out of the WORST recession since the great depression. We've had almost 10 years of growth, hard to be excited when the numbers grow slightly...thus leading the "experts" to show concern of an impending recession.

To say all is well is simply placing your head in the sand out of either ignorance which by your post, you seem to know good about what you are talking about or the fanboi mentality that is plaguing this presidents base.
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Old 08-22-2019, 09:29 PM
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Old 08-23-2019, 12:09 AM
ajole ajole is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aerindel View Post
Except for the top few percent, the last recession never ended. Most people are on the verge of collapse right now.
Huh. Not in my AO. Wages are up, lots of jobs, people are upgrading homes, vehicles, etc.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OldDesertrat View Post
The majority of jobs created since 2009 have been low-pay.

If you believe that the claim of a 2% annual increase in the CPI is factual, then, yes, GDP is increasing. But remember also that government spending is included in GDP. More expenditures by all levels of government = increasing GDP.

I don't see our economy being all that great when I read that half of all households have almost no reserves against sudden-emergency-type expenses.

The rate of store closings--whether chain or independent--is only partially due to on-line buying. Many are due to reduced spending by those who are suffering from less disposable income.

Other negatives include the increasing number of delinquencies in car loans and student loans.
Consider the meaning of a large drop in orders for semis.
Nope. Not here.
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Old 08-23-2019, 01:40 AM
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https://www.autonews.com/sales/near-...-pinch-dealers

Quote:
The estimated 4,188,200 unsold vehicles on April 1 was the highest inventory number for any month since that reported for July 1, 2017, and just 114,300 vehicles less than the modern-day record set in May 2004, according to the Automotive News Data Center. It’s over half a million vehicles more than automakers and dealers were grappling with in the spring of 2007, when the Great Recession was just around the corner. The figures do not include the estimated 18,000 electric vehicles that Tesla had in inventory this month.
And:

https://jalopnik.com/there-are-still...uck-1836944777

Quote:
A full 3.5 percent of all July 2019 sales were 2018 model years, according to J.D. Power PIN transaction data provided by Tyson Jominy, their VP of Automotive Data and Analytics Consulting. That’s up from 2.5 percent last year and the highest since at least 2005, the first year for which J.D. Power has data.
Quote:
Huh. Not in my AO. Wages are up, lots of jobs, people are upgrading homes, vehicles, etc.
No doubt. The thing about the 'recovery' is that for a few people, mostly people who where well to do to begin with, its been great. But most people don't even have $700 in the bank, almost half don't even have $400. New cars aren't even on the radar. Just putting gas in their current beater is a challenge.

The common man is poor and miserable and has never been able to get back where he was in 2007.

And is now ten years older, has less health care, been eating worse (cheaper) food, that costs more, has more debt, his car is older, his house is older, his children have moved back in...

Like I said, for the wealthy for whom the last few years have been really great its going to be a huge shock when the start seeing the bodies pile up and don't understand why nobody is buying anything anymore.
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Old 08-23-2019, 08:40 AM
OldDesertrat OldDesertrat is offline
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RV sales down 4% in 2018, but down 20% so far this year.

California luxury home orders are down.

Morgan Stanley analyst says recession is coming.
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Old 08-23-2019, 10:43 AM
PalmettoTree PalmettoTree is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zumhug View Post
All is not rosy and as others have mentioned, lots of families and individuals have yet to recover. yes, the individual does create the recession. If this wasn't the case, why is one of the first thing that happens when a recession starts is that there is relief added to the family unit (IE Bush and the tax refund, etc)?

So here are a few other stats that add to the fear being spoken of on the world stage and by the media:
Bankruptcies are up for the 3rd year in a row
Personal debt is at an all-time high $14.1T
Treasure notes are at a near all-time low
140 percent increase in lawsuits filed by debt collectors in Texas. (91,500 debt claims in 2014 to 215,000 last year).
BOA raises the chance of recession to 1-3 in the next 12 months.
A third of the U.S. have no money in savings. (Nearly half could not pay bills beyond 40 days)
7 million car owners are at risk of having their car repossessed due to delinquent payments.

To address a few of you anti-recession concerns:
Obama's numbers were applauded due to the fact we just came out of the WORST recession since the great depression. We've had almost 10 years of growth, hard to be excited when the numbers grow slightly...thus leading the "experts" to show concern of an impending recession.

To say all is well is simply placing your head in the sand out of either ignorance which by your post, you seem to know good about what you are talking about or the fanboi mentality that is plaguing this presidents base.

Bankruptcies are not up for a 3rd year in a row. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/bankruptcies
Regardless bankruptcies are a result of poor use of credit.

Personal debt is not caused by recessions. It is caused by people buying on credit.

The list you cited is a comment on individual choices not the current economic condition.

I have had two neighbors become bankrupt. Both were their own doing. They had to have now what they could not afford. During that time the rest of us became more economically secure.

Just because people end up in a personal depression does not mean the economy is in a recession.

I am financially more secure than anyone in my neighborhood[s] but I drive a 2007 pickup truck. Likely, except for a few teens, the oldest in the neighborhood[s]. The fact that people buy $50,000 automobiles, on credit, is not a sign of a recession but of individual poor judgement. People with poor judgement most often make themselves poor.
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Old 08-23-2019, 01:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PalmettoTree View Post
Bankruptcies are not up for a 3rd year in a row. Regardless bankruptcies are a result of poor use of credit.
Bankruptcies are normally done because of medial bill reasons. Not improper credit choices, you know, unless you are Trump and then you use it as a tool, four times.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PalmettoTree View Post
Personal debt is not caused by recessions. It is caused by people buying on credit.
The great recession called, it wants you to explain that again...but this time try not to be obtuse.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PalmettoTree View Post
I have had two neighbors become bankrupt. Both were their own doing. They had to have now what they could not afford. During that time the rest of us became more economically secure.
I ate lunch today, world hunger must have ended.

[quote][
Quote:
Originally Posted by PalmettoTree View Post
mean the economy is in a recession.
When all the other signs are there, sure it does.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PalmettoTree View Post
I am financially more secure than anyone in my neighborhood[s] but I drive a 2007 pickup truck. Likely, except for a few teens, the oldest in the neighborhood[s]. The fact that people buy $50,000 automobiles, on credit, is not a sign of a recession but of individual poor judgement. People with poor judgement most often make themselves poor.
You ate lunch today, world hunger must have ended.
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Old 08-23-2019, 04:34 PM
PalmettoTree PalmettoTree is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zumhug View Post
Bankruptcies are normally done because of medial bill reasons. Not improper credit choices, you know, unless you are Trump and then you use it as a tool, four times.


The great recession called, it wants you to explain that again...but this time try not to be obtuse.


I ate lunch today, world hunger must have ended.

When all the other signs are there, sure it does.


You ate lunch today, world hunger must have ended.
I just took your rationalization to the next level. You are correct just because I was not affected as some does not mean there was no great recession. The same against your rationalization. Just because some have not recovered from the great recession does not mean the recession is not over.

The great recession's root cause was government making banks lend to unqualified to own a home. This caused irrational demand for homes which resulted on flipping and excessive building. People at all levels got caught up in this bubble frenzy.

Just because those that abused that environment have not recovered does not mean the recession it caused is not over.

The Fed made it worse than it had to be [with too many interest rate increases] and the Fed made it less painful that it should have been [with zero rates and Quantitative easing].

Yes most bandruptcies are medically related. That does not mean the decision getting there were logical. Most of them expect cures when they should be enjoying the life that remains.
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Old 08-23-2019, 05:12 PM
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People don't think past next paycheck and a little blip in there life and they're in panic mode. They use there 401k for a bank (borrow against it) because they lack the discipline to save for a rainy day. They lose there job then they cash in the 401 minus what they owe on loans plus pay penalty. Lose there house,car ect.

I lived week to week at one point of my life and hated it enough to never let it happen again.
It takes discipline ..a lot of otherwise smart people I've known lacked it when it comes to money.
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Old 08-23-2019, 05:20 PM
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Now that we have established that everyone does not need to have recovered from a recession for a recession to be over like
Quote:
Originally Posted by zumhug View Post
...
. We can move on.

The recession is over and there is no evidence yet that a recession is coming.

We all know sooner or later there will be another recession.

Individual segments within the greater economy are in recessions at all times.

The point is there is no recession. There is not even the first step of a recession.

Recessions are the result of bubbles, usually a bubble, big enough to affect the entire market when it pops.

The only one I can see is the over pricing of growth stocks. This IMO would be simualr to the dot com bubble.

Not IMO if these over price stocks corrected they need not cause a recession except that they would likely trigger ETF and algorithm selling without a logical reason.
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Old 08-23-2019, 06:28 PM
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Well, the cool think about predictions concerning the near future is that we don't have to argue about what is going to happen, we can just wait and see it play out ourselves.
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Old 08-23-2019, 06:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aerindel View Post
Well, the cool think about predictions concerning the near future is that we don't have to argue about what is going to happen, we can just wait and see it play out ourselves.
The point is to understand.
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Old 08-23-2019, 09:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PalmettoTree View Post
The point is to understand.
Lots of us understand without the rose-colored glasses and an open, free-thinking mind.
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Old 08-23-2019, 10:13 PM
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Between floods and Chinese tariffs, I'd say that those farmers who are sweating bankruptcy haven't brought it onto themselves.

ajole, it is known that there are pockets of Good Times here and there around the country. The county wherein I live seems to be one of those pockets. The overall national average, however, is not just down, but dropping further.
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Old 08-23-2019, 11:51 PM
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I posted almost the same thing a couple months ago on here, everyone was telling me all was great. It seems it's not great and it's getting worse.I work in a resturant we have been slow sales wise, a lot of my friends have said the same, add into the rising food cost housing cost ectra and no the economy is not in great shape
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Old 08-24-2019, 09:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Manager View Post
I posted almost the same thing a couple months ago on here, everyone was telling me all was great. It seems it's not great and it's getting worse.I work in a resturant we have been slow sales wise, a lot of my friends have said the same, add into the rising food cost housing cost ectra and no the economy is not in great shape
Rising food cost means either less is being produced or more people are buying food.
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Old 08-24-2019, 09:30 AM
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The next recession will be catastrophic. We have no more tools to fight them. If our economy is so rock solid why do we have to keep rates at record lows? There is a recession looming but the tools to counter them will no longer be available. Only potential avenue left is coin Seigniorage.
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Old 08-24-2019, 10:00 AM
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Originally Posted by elsapo View Post
The next recession will be catastrophic. We have no more tools to fight them. If our economy is so rock solid why do we have to keep rates at record lows? There is a recession looming but the tools to counter them will no longer be available. Only potential avenue left is coin Seigniorage.
Our rates will go even lower. Why? Our unmanageable debt. Interest rates CAN'T be raised to healthy levels. Until government spending and debt are addressed (they wont be), we'll just continue to spiral out of control as we circle the drain.

Of course Republicans and Democrats alike with hold tight to their sacred calves and nothing will get done until it's too late. Have fun being a territory of China.
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Old 08-24-2019, 10:04 AM
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Our rates will go even lower. Why? Our unmanageable debt. Until government spending and debt are addressed (they wont be), we'll just continue to spiral out of control as we circle the drain.

Of course Republicans and Democrats alike with hold tight to their sacred calves and nothing will get done until it's too late. Have fun being a territory of China.
Negative interest rate is the only tool we have left along with seignorage. At least Trump is trying but I suspect its too late. China is waiting for a new president so it is business as usual.

A true strong economy comes with interest rates in the 6-8% to dampen inflation.
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Old 08-24-2019, 10:28 AM
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If our economy is so rock solid why do we have to keep rates at record lows?
That is a good question! IMO the Fed should have never went to zero which forced other central banks to negative rates. Once we did go to zero and the Fed realized that was a mistake they have found it next to imposible to get the rates up.

IMO the range should be +/- 2 or 3% with the center point being 3 or 4% so long as the center point minus the 2 or 3 is never zero.

Remember interest rates on loans is a non-value-added expense.

IMO!
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